GENIUS

Genius · Binance Smart Chain · gru_s4

token id: #408
symbol: GENIUS
variant: –
chain: Binance Smart Chain
address: 0x1f12b85aac097e43aa1555b2881e98a51090e9a6
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-05-15
predictions: 453

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +30d

assessed

121

of 151 predictions shown

direction hit

85.1%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1206

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0215

actual -0.0865

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.3071	0.294902	-3.97%	–	pending	–	–	-0.10
2026-10-20	oos	0.3057	0.295024	-3.49%	–	pending	–	–	-0.10
2026-10-19	oos	0.30015	0.289971	-3.39%	–	pending	–	–	-0.10
2026-10-18	oos	0.3024	0.292619	-3.23%	–	pending	–	–	-0.04
2026-10-17	oos	0.29965	0.288548	-3.70%	–	pending	–	–	-0.04
2026-10-16	oos	0.3056	0.295387	-3.34%	–	pending	–	–	-0.04
2026-10-15	oos	0.30045	0.291915	-2.84%	–	pending	–	–	-0.04
2026-10-14	oos	0.31885	0.308402	-3.28%	–	pending	–	–	-0.03
2026-10-13	oos	0.3176	0.309903	-2.42%	–	pending	–	–	-0.03
2026-10-12	oos	0.32945	0.318642	-3.28%	–	pending	–	–	-0.02
2026-10-11	oos	0.3359	0.327154	-2.60%	–	pending	–	–	-0.02
2026-10-10	oos	0.346	0.335447	-3.05%	–	pending	–	–	0.01
2026-10-09	oos	0.3428	0.331949	-3.17%	–	pending	–	–	0.01
2026-10-08	oos	0.3213	0.312534	-2.73%	–	pending	–	–	0.00
2026-10-07	oos	0.324	0.316524	-2.31%	–	pending	–	–	-0.00
2026-10-06	oos	0.32765	0.321778	-1.79%	–	pending	–	–	-0.02
2026-10-05	oos	0.32845	0.322445	-1.83%	–	pending	–	–	0.01
2026-10-04	oos	0.31975	0.317177	-0.80%	–	pending	–	–	0.02
2026-10-03	oos	0.32535	0.320704	-1.43%	–	pending	–	–	0.03
2026-10-02	oos	0.32695	0.32124	-1.75%	–	pending	–	–	0.03
2026-10-01	oos	0.31835	0.313353	-1.57%	–	pending	–	–	0.04
2026-09-30	oos	0.3226	0.317678	-1.53%	–	pending	–	–	0.04
2026-09-29	oos	0.31945	0.314415	-1.58%	–	pending	–	–	0.03
2026-09-28	oos	0.3168	0.31259	-1.33%	–	pending	–	–	0.03
2026-09-27	oos	0.3292	0.324194	-1.52%	–	pending	–	–	0.01
2026-09-26	oos	0.34275	0.336352	-1.87%	–	pending	–	–	0.02
2026-09-25	oos	0.349	0.341942	-2.02%	–	pending	–	–	0.01
2026-09-24	oos	0.35475	0.347812	-1.96%	–	pending	–	–	0.02
2026-09-23	oos	0.3426	0.339325	-0.96%	–	pending	–	–	0.02
2026-09-22	oos	0.35245	0.355664	+0.91%	–	pending	–	–	-0.02
2026-09-21	oos	0.35885	0.3643	+1.52%	0.3071	-14.42%	0.1708	✗	-0.00
2026-09-20	oos	0.3747	0.366652	-2.15%	0.3057	-18.41%	0.1837	✓	0.09
2026-09-19	oos	0.34085	0.339559	-0.38%	0.30015	-11.94%	0.1240	✓	0.09
2026-09-18	oos	0.3402	0.342144	+0.57%	0.3024	-11.11%	0.1248	✗	0.10
2026-09-17	oos	0.3605	0.353953	-1.82%	0.29965	-16.88%	0.1801	✓	0.21
2026-09-16	oos	0.3024	0.301904	-0.16%	0.3056	+1.06%	0.0032	✓	0.23
2026-09-15	oos	0.3036	0.303606	+0.00%	0.30045	-1.04%	0.0359	✗	0.31
2026-09-14	oos	0.2988	0.302183	+1.13%	0.31885	+6.71%	0.0388	✓	0.35
2026-09-13	oos	0.29545	0.298531	+1.04%	0.3176	+7.50%	0.0342	✓	0.35
2026-09-12	oos	0.29705	0.300522	+1.17%	0.32945	+10.91%	0.0736	✓	0.33
2026-09-11	oos	0.30415	0.308149	+1.31%	0.3359	+10.44%	0.0559	✓	0.38
2026-09-10	oos	0.2871	0.29165	+1.58%	0.346	+20.52%	0.1422	✓	0.36
2026-09-09	oos	0.28855	0.296218	+2.66%	0.3428	+18.80%	0.1265	✓	0.37
2026-09-08	oos	0.30395	0.310622	+2.20%	0.3213	+5.71%	0.0192	✓	0.36
2026-09-07	oos	0.2922	0.301291	+3.11%	0.324	+10.88%	0.0538	✓	0.37
2026-09-06	oos	0.2962	0.307665	+3.87%	0.32765	+10.62%	0.0396	✓	0.37
2026-09-05	oos	0.30035	0.310721	+3.45%	0.32845	+9.36%	0.0288	✓	0.37
2026-09-04	oos	0.2933	0.301908	+2.94%	0.31975	+9.02%	0.0150	✓	0.52
2026-09-03	oos	0.29125	0.305632	+4.94%	0.32535	+11.71%	0.0398	✓	0.54
2026-09-02	oos	0.2859	0.293789	+2.76%	0.32695	+14.36%	0.0636	✓	0.49
2026-09-01	oos	0.2773	0.286851	+3.44%	0.31835	+14.80%	0.0576	✓	0.51
2026-08-31	oos	0.2837	0.295724	+4.24%	0.3226	+13.71%	0.0536	✓	0.54
2026-08-30	oos	0.28175	0.294123	+4.39%	0.31945	+13.38%	0.0648	✓	0.24
2026-08-29	oos	0.2845	0.300917	+5.77%	0.3168	+11.35%	0.0360	✓	0.24
2026-08-28	oos	0.28265	0.301284	+6.59%	0.3292	+16.47%	0.0689	✓	0.24
2026-08-27	oos	0.3045	0.330711	+8.61%	0.34275	+12.56%	0.0257	✓	0.20
2026-08-26	oos	0.30725	0.330825	+7.67%	0.349	+13.59%	0.0396	✓	0.22
2026-08-25	oos	0.3083	0.336206	+9.05%	0.35475	+15.07%	0.0352	✓	0.26
2026-08-24	oos	0.3126	0.34459	+10.23%	0.3426	+9.60%	0.0202	✓	0.22
2026-08-23	oos	0.324	0.355571	+9.74%	0.35245	+8.78%	0.0295	✓	0.20
2026-08-22	oos	0.3344	0.364206	+8.91%	0.35885	+7.31%	0.0376	✓	0.20
2026-08-21	oos	0.34135	0.376531	+10.31%	0.3747	+9.77%	0.0120	✓	0.20
2026-08-20	oos	0.3111	0.325182	+4.53%	0.34085	+9.56%	0.0410	✓	0.06
2026-08-19	oos	0.3291	0.328191	-0.28%	0.3402	+3.37%	0.0573	✗	-0.14
2026-08-18	oos	0.36445	0.353165	-3.10%	0.3605	-1.08%	0.0064	✓	0.09
2026-08-17	oos	0.36775	0.356668	-3.01%	0.3024	-17.77%	0.1816	✓	0.10
2026-08-16	oos	0.36445	0.352463	-3.29%	0.3036	-16.70%	0.1662	✓	0.09
2026-08-15	oos	0.3723	0.360522	-3.16%	0.2988	-19.74%	0.2063	✓	0.09
2026-08-14	oos	0.3686	0.357171	-3.10%	0.29545	-19.85%	0.2115	✓	0.11
2026-08-13	oos	0.3931	0.380126	-3.30%	0.29705	-24.43%	0.2637	✓	0.09
2026-08-12	oos	0.376	0.364763	-2.99%	0.30415	-19.11%	0.1979	✓	0.08
2026-08-11	oos	0.3729	0.36306	-2.64%	0.2871	-23.01%	0.2500	✓	0.08
2026-08-10	oos	0.36395	0.354196	-2.68%	0.28855	-20.72%	0.2223	✓	0.09
2026-08-09	oos	0.34505	0.335415	-2.79%	0.30395	-11.91%	0.1195	✓	0.11
2026-08-08	oos	0.34625	0.335584	-3.08%	0.2922	-15.61%	0.1603	✓	0.11
2026-08-07	oos	0.3416	0.331083	-3.08%	0.2962	-13.29%	0.1346	✓	0.11
2026-08-06	oos	0.33865	0.328246	-3.07%	0.30035	-11.31%	0.1114	✓	0.10
2026-08-05	oos	0.3583	0.345902	-3.46%	0.2933	-18.14%	0.1857	✓	0.10
2026-08-04	oos	0.34955	0.337348	-3.49%	0.29125	-16.68%	0.1678	✓	0.09
2026-08-03	oos	0.3431	0.330814	-3.58%	0.2859	-16.67%	0.1614	✓	0.08
2026-08-02	oos	0.32795	0.316445	-3.51%	0.2773	-15.44%	0.1468	✓	0.07
2026-08-01	oos	0.3215	0.309767	-3.65%	0.2837	-11.76%	0.1018	✓	0.06
2026-07-31	oos	0.3287	0.316127	-3.83%	0.28175	-14.28%	0.1285	✓	0.06
2026-07-30	oos	0.3309	0.31765	-4.00%	0.2845	-14.02%	0.1222	✓	0.06
2026-07-29	oos	0.32935	0.316726	-3.83%	0.28265	-14.18%	0.1253	✓	0.06
2026-07-28	oos	0.35	0.334841	-4.33%	0.3045	-13.00%	0.1101	✓	0.07
2026-07-27	oos	0.36775	0.349875	-4.86%	0.30725	-16.45%	0.1461	✓	0.08
2026-07-26	oos	0.37585	0.357691	-4.83%	0.3083	-17.97%	0.1597	✓	0.06
2026-07-25	oos	0.37075	0.35399	-4.52%	0.3126	-15.68%	0.1343	✓	0.05
2026-07-24	oos	0.3617	0.345276	-4.54%	0.324	-10.42%	0.0716	✓	0.04
2026-07-23	oos	0.3527	0.337191	-4.40%	0.3344	-5.19%	0.0178	✓	0.06
2026-07-22	oos	0.35555	0.340326	-4.28%	0.34135	-3.99%	0.0062	✓	0.05
2026-07-21	oos	0.36335	0.347158	-4.46%	0.3111	-14.38%	0.1145	✓	0.05
2026-07-20	oos	0.3239	0.309288	-4.51%	0.3291	+1.61%	0.0656	✗	-0.06
2026-07-19	oos	0.31675	0.303306	-4.24%	0.36445	+15.06%	0.1836	✗	-0.07
2026-07-18	oos	0.31925	0.304816	-4.52%	0.36775	+15.19%	0.1873	✗	-0.07
2026-07-17	oos	0.3248	0.310561	-4.38%	0.36445	+12.21%	0.1589	✗	-0.06
2026-07-16	oos	0.33275	0.318505	-4.28%	0.3723	+11.89%	0.1554	✗	-0.06
2026-07-15	oos	0.3329	0.319155	-4.13%	0.3686	+10.72%	0.1425	✗	-0.06
2026-07-14	oos	0.33125	0.3171	-4.27%	0.3931	+18.67%	0.2135	✗	-0.06
2026-07-13	oos	0.32705	0.315382	-3.57%	0.376	+14.97%	0.1777	✗	-0.10
2026-07-12	oos	0.3384	0.324203	-4.20%	0.3729	+10.20%	0.1395	✗	-0.13
2026-07-11	oos	0.3452	0.330892	-4.14%	0.36395	+5.43%	0.0955	✗	-0.13
2026-07-10	oos	0.34765	0.334156	-3.88%	0.34505	-0.75%	0.0335	✓	-0.13
2026-07-09	oos	0.3484	0.334493	-3.99%	0.34625	-0.62%	0.0382	✓	-0.13
2026-07-08	oos	0.35555	0.341613	-3.92%	0.3416	-3.92%	0.0051	✓	-0.12
2026-07-07	oos	0.3748	0.358718	-4.29%	0.33865	-9.65%	0.0553	✓	-0.15
2026-07-06	oos	0.3765	0.360877	-4.15%	0.3583	-4.83%	0.0057	✓	-0.15
2026-07-05	oos	0.38175	0.36625	-4.06%	0.34955	-8.43%	0.0456	✓	-0.15
2026-07-04	oos	0.3877	0.372279	-3.98%	0.3431	-11.50%	0.0808	✓	-0.14
2026-07-03	oos	0.384	0.369322	-3.82%	0.32795	-14.60%	0.1164	✓	-0.16
2026-07-02	oos	0.3888	0.374059	-3.79%	0.3215	-17.31%	0.1483	✓	-0.15
2026-07-01	oos	0.3947	0.380059	-3.71%	0.3287	-16.72%	0.1387	✓	-0.14
2026-06-30	oos	0.3947	0.379359	-3.89%	0.3309	-16.16%	0.1213	✓	-0.15
2026-06-29	oos	0.39385	0.378224	-3.97%	0.32935	-16.38%	0.1294	✓	-0.15
2026-06-28	oos	0.3783	0.362972	-4.05%	0.35	-7.48%	0.0223	✓	-0.20
2026-06-27	oos	0.37735	0.361548	-4.19%	0.36775	-2.54%	0.0291	✓	-0.20
2026-06-26	oos	0.39065	0.374379	-4.17%	0.37585	-3.79%	0.0201	✓	-0.19
2026-06-25	oos	0.3913	0.374817	-4.21%	0.37075	-5.25%	0.0034	✓	-0.19
2026-06-24	oos	0.3809	0.364613	-4.28%	0.3617	-5.04%	0.0003	✓	-0.17
2026-06-23	oos	0.3911	0.375468	-4.00%	0.3527	-9.82%	0.0550	✓	-0.20
2026-06-22	oos	0.39995	0.384871	-3.77%	0.35555	-11.10%	0.0720	✓	-0.22
2026-06-21	oos	0.411	0.395462	-3.78%	0.36335	-11.59%	0.0747	✓	-0.20
2026-06-20	oos	0.4169	0.401208	-3.76%	0.3239	-22.31%	0.2109	✓	-0.21
2026-06-19	oos	0.40235	0.386231	-4.01%	0.31675	-21.28%	0.1935	✓	-0.26
2026-06-18	oos	0.3724	0.357802	-3.92%	0.31925	-14.27%	0.1035	✓	-0.35
2026-06-17	oos	0.415	0.40011	-3.59%	0.3248	-21.73%	0.2127	✓	-0.49
2026-06-16	oos	0.4273	0.412498	-3.46%	0.33275	-22.13%	0.2295	✓	-0.51
2026-06-15	oos	0.4357	0.421388	-3.28%	0.3329	-23.59%	0.2481	✓	-0.52
2026-06-14	oos	0.4935	0.479845	-2.77%	0.33125	-32.88%	0.3750	✓	-0.40
2026-06-13	oos	0.44765	0.434132	-3.02%	0.32705	-26.94%	0.2491	✓	1.00
2026-06-12	oos	0.45495	0.442629	-2.71%	0.3384	-25.62%	0.2717	✓	1.00
2026-06-11	oos	0.4724	0.458966	-2.84%	0.3452	-26.93%	0.2881	✓	1.00
2026-06-10	oos	0.4711	0.457424	-2.90%	0.34765	-26.20%	0.3171	✓	1.00
2026-06-09	oos	0.4527	0.437683	-3.32%	0.3484	-23.04%	0.2520	✓	1.00
2026-06-08	oos	0.4637	0.44652	-3.71%	0.35555	-23.32%	0.2146	✓	1.00
2026-06-07	oos	0.4677	0.448199	-4.17%	0.3748	-19.86%	0.1792	✓	1.00
2026-06-06	oos	0.4055	0.38965	-3.91%	0.3765	-7.15%	0.0848	✓	1.00
2026-06-05	oos	0.4356	0.417154	-4.23%	0.38175	-12.36%	0.1296	✓	1.00
2026-06-04	oos	0.4301	0.409679	-4.75%	0.3877	-9.86%	0.0438	✓	1.00
2026-06-03	oos	0.4796	0.454726	-5.19%	0.384	-19.93%	0.1450	✓	1.00
2026-06-02	oos	0.509	0.476806	-6.33%	0.3888	-23.61%	0.1232	✓	1.00
2026-06-01	oos	0.4463	0.414858	-7.04%	0.3947	-11.56%	0.1236	✗	1.00
2026-05-31	oos	0.4511	0.416914	-7.58%	0.3947	-12.50%	0.1741	✗	1.00
2026-05-30	oos	0.47675	0.442238	-7.24%	0.39385	-17.39%	0.0880	✗	1.00
2026-05-29	oos	0.45355	0.419012	-7.62%	0.3783	-16.59%	0.1077	✗	1.00
2026-05-28	oos	0.62785	0.58146	-7.39%	0.37735	-39.90%	0.2282	✓	1.00
2026-05-27	oos	0.71265	0.651959	-8.52%	0.39065	-45.18%	0.2982	✓	1.00
2026-05-26	oos	0.67035	0.614487	-8.33%	0.3913	-41.63%	0.2123	✓	1.00
2026-05-25	oos	0.6361	0.588617	-7.46%	0.3809	-40.12%	0.1988	✓	1.00
2026-05-24	oos	0.72305	0.655049	-9.40%	0.3911	-45.91%	0.3097	✓	1.00