XEF

Xeffy · native · gru_s3

token id: #633
symbol: XEF
variant: –
chain: native
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-06-15
predictions: 360

Track record at +7d

assessed

113

of 120 predictions shown

direction hit

48.7%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1909

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0281

actual -0.0467

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.004362	0.00427	-2.10%	–	pending	–	–	-0.35
2026-10-20	oos	0.00434	0.00425	-2.09%	–	pending	–	–	-0.35
2026-10-19	oos	0.004365	0.00427	-2.19%	–	pending	–	–	-0.34
2026-10-18	oos	0.0043	0.00421	-2.08%	–	pending	–	–	-0.33
2026-10-17	oos	0.004521	0.004419	-2.25%	–	pending	–	–	-0.31
2026-10-16	oos	0.004544	0.004445	-2.18%	–	pending	–	–	-0.31
2026-10-15	oos	0.004581	0.004487	-2.06%	–	pending	–	–	-0.31
2026-10-14	oos	0.004339	0.00426	-1.83%	0.004362	+0.52%	0.0279	✗	-0.31
2026-10-13	oos	0.004166	0.004114	-1.25%	0.00434	+4.19%	0.0531	✗	-0.29
2026-10-12	oos	0.00412	0.004064	-1.38%	0.004365	+5.95%	0.0719	✗	-0.28
2026-10-11	oos	0.004012	0.003982	-0.75%	0.0043	+7.15%	0.0754	✗	-0.06
2026-10-10	oos	0.004044	0.004006	-0.94%	0.004521	+11.81%	0.1209	✗	-0.01
2026-10-09	oos	0.004051	0.004009	-1.05%	0.004544	+12.18%	0.1253	✗	-0.01
2026-10-08	oos	0.003918	0.003877	-1.04%	0.004581	+16.92%	0.1670	✗	-0.04
2026-10-07	oos	0.004142	0.004096	-1.13%	0.004339	+4.75%	0.0555	✗	-0.11
2026-10-06	oos	0.00412	0.004095	-0.61%	0.004166	+1.11%	0.0170	✗	-0.00
2026-10-05	oos	0.004078	0.004056	-0.53%	0.00412	+1.05%	0.0141	✗	-0.03
2026-10-04	oos	0.004432	0.004389	-0.98%	0.004012	-9.48%	0.0941	✓	-0.13
2026-10-03	oos	0.003817	0.003794	-0.61%	0.004044	+5.94%	0.0593	✗	-0.20
2026-10-02	oos	0.004988	0.004866	-2.44%	0.004051	-18.79%	0.1879	✓	-0.20
2026-10-01	oos	0.005017	0.004897	-2.39%	0.003918	-21.90%	0.2294	✓	-0.17
2026-09-30	oos	0.005013	0.004872	-2.81%	0.004142	-17.37%	0.1641	✓	-0.54
2026-09-29	oos	0.004268	0.004206	-1.44%	0.00412	-3.46%	0.0081	✓	-0.56
2026-09-28	oos	0.004541	0.004454	-1.92%	0.004078	-10.21%	0.0740	✓	-0.53
2026-09-27	oos	0.004455	0.004389	-1.47%	0.004432	-0.50%	0.0195	✗	-0.40
2026-09-26	oos	0.004617	0.004538	-1.70%	0.003817	-17.32%	0.1714	✓	-0.43
2026-09-25	oos	0.004728	0.004637	-1.92%	0.004988	+5.50%	0.0750	✗	-0.42
2026-09-24	oos	0.005116	0.004984	-2.58%	0.005017	-1.93%	0.0090	✓	-0.43
2026-09-23	oos	0.004436	0.004384	-1.16%	0.005013	+13.01%	0.1299	✗	-0.42
2026-09-22	oos	0.004354	0.004332	-0.51%	0.004268	-1.98%	0.0247	✓	-0.33
2026-09-21	oos	0.004336	0.004323	-0.30%	0.004541	+4.73%	0.0393	✗	-0.27
2026-09-20	oos	0.004372	0.00431	-1.43%	0.004455	+1.88%	0.0474	✗	-0.36
2026-09-19	oos	0.004563	0.004491	-1.58%	0.004617	+1.17%	0.0418	✗	-0.37
2026-09-18	oos	0.004794	0.004704	-1.88%	0.004728	-1.38%	0.0181	✓	-0.33
2026-09-17	oos	0.005449	0.005256	-3.54%	0.005116	-6.12%	0.0090	✓	-0.18
2026-09-16	oos	0.004344	0.004332	-0.27%	0.004436	+2.11%	0.0421	✗	-0.18
2026-09-15	oos	0.003837	0.003883	+1.21%	0.004354	+13.47%	0.1703	✓	-0.43
2026-09-14	oos	0.003874	0.003934	+1.53%	0.004336	+11.93%	0.1285	✓	-0.30
2026-09-13	oos	0.003645	0.003728	+2.26%	0.004372	+19.94%	0.1728	✓	-0.24
2026-09-12	oos	0.003056	0.003147	+2.98%	0.004563	+49.34%	0.3815	✓	-0.19
2026-09-11	oos	0.003884	0.003971	+2.25%	0.004794	+23.43%	0.1977	✓	-0.20
2026-09-10	oos	0.003968	0.004047	+1.99%	0.005449	+37.31%	0.2969	✓	-0.20
2026-09-09	oos	0.00401	0.004091	+2.04%	0.004344	+8.34%	0.0544	✓	-0.20
2026-09-08	oos	0.004901	0.004944	+0.87%	0.003837	-21.71%	0.2618	✗	-0.22
2026-09-07	oos	0.004835	0.004887	+1.08%	0.003874	-19.87%	0.2348	✗	-0.22
2026-09-06	oos	0.004718	0.004791	+1.55%	0.003645	-22.73%	0.2822	✗	-0.20
2026-09-05	oos	0.004529	0.004625	+2.12%	0.003056	-32.54%	0.4212	✗	-0.20
2026-09-04	oos	0.004744	0.004846	+2.17%	0.003884	-18.12%	0.2278	✗	-0.20
2026-09-03	oos	0.005066	0.005179	+2.22%	0.003968	-21.67%	0.2809	✗	-0.24
2026-09-02	oos	0.005016	0.005082	+1.32%	0.00401	-20.06%	0.2332	✗	-0.30
2026-09-01	oos	0.004993	0.005062	+1.38%	0.004901	-1.83%	0.0282	✗	-0.30
2026-08-31	oos	0.004669	0.004745	+1.62%	0.004835	+3.54%	0.0205	✓	-0.26
2026-08-30	oos	0.005046	0.005113	+1.31%	0.004718	-6.51%	0.0724	✗	-0.24
2026-08-29	oos	0.005104	0.005173	+1.33%	0.004529	-11.27%	0.1280	✗	-0.24
2026-08-28	oos	0.005199	0.00526	+1.17%	0.004744	-8.76%	0.0978	✗	-0.24
2026-08-27	oos	0.005385	0.005466	+1.52%	0.005066	-5.91%	0.0727	✗	-0.27
2026-08-26	oos	0.005417	0.005482	+1.19%	0.005016	-7.41%	0.0949	✗	-0.28
2026-08-25	oos	0.005231	0.005289	+1.11%	0.004993	-4.55%	0.0618	✗	-0.28
2026-08-24	oos	0.005276	0.005335	+1.11%	0.004669	-11.50%	0.1348	✗	-0.28
2026-08-23	oos	0.005177	0.005217	+0.77%	0.005046	-2.52%	0.0334	✗	-0.30
2026-08-22	oos	0.005087	0.005106	+0.38%	0.005104	+0.35%	0.0044	✓	-0.31
2026-08-21	oos	0.004926	0.004916	-0.22%	0.005199	+5.53%	0.0543	✗	-0.28
2026-08-20	oos	0.00578	0.005723	-0.99%	0.005385	-6.84%	0.0722	✓	0.12
2026-08-19	oos	0.005749	0.005653	-1.66%	0.005417	-5.76%	0.0530	✓	0.08
2026-08-18	oos	0.00582	0.005684	-2.33%	0.005231	-10.11%	0.1005	✓	0.09
2026-08-17	oos	0.00589	0.005746	-2.46%	0.005276	-10.42%	0.1033	✓	0.09
2026-08-16	oos	0.00599	0.005829	-2.69%	0.005177	-13.58%	0.1392	✓	0.10
2026-08-15	oos	0.005993	0.005829	-2.74%	0.005087	-15.11%	0.1560	✓	0.10
2026-08-14	oos	0.005916	0.005755	-2.73%	0.004926	-16.73%	0.1763	✓	0.10
2026-08-13	oos	0.005929	0.00576	-2.85%	0.00578	-2.51%	0.0110	✓	0.10
2026-08-12	oos	0.006068	0.005883	-3.06%	0.005749	-5.27%	0.0322	✓	0.10
2026-08-11	oos	0.006474	0.006267	-3.19%	0.00582	-10.11%	0.0759	✓	0.10
2026-08-10	oos	0.006798	0.006573	-3.31%	0.00589	-13.35%	0.1104	✓	0.09
2026-08-09	oos	0.006782	0.006552	-3.39%	0.00599	-11.68%	0.0864	✓	0.11
2026-08-08	oos	0.006455	0.006229	-3.50%	0.005993	-7.16%	0.0355	✓	0.11
2026-08-07	oos	0.006942	0.006693	-3.59%	0.005916	-14.78%	0.1200	✓	0.11
2026-08-06	oos	0.007076	0.006816	-3.68%	0.005929	-16.21%	0.1379	✓	0.12
2026-08-05	oos	0.00732	0.007035	-3.90%	0.006068	-17.10%	0.1458	✓	0.11
2026-08-04	oos	0.006568	0.006318	-3.81%	0.006474	-1.44%	0.0245	✓	0.02
2026-08-03	oos	0.006383	0.006136	-3.86%	0.006798	+6.50%	0.1025	✗	-0.02
2026-08-02	oos	0.00607	0.005836	-3.85%	0.006782	+11.74%	0.1506	✗	-0.02
2026-08-01	oos	0.005956	0.005727	-3.85%	0.006455	+8.37%	0.1216	✗	-0.06
2026-07-31	oos	0.006009	0.005775	-3.90%	0.006942	+15.52%	0.1860	✗	-0.06
2026-07-30	oos	0.005979	0.005745	-3.93%	0.007076	+18.34%	0.2085	✗	0.00
2026-07-29	oos	0.006029	0.005792	-3.93%	0.00732	+21.41%	0.2343	✗	-0.01
2026-07-28	oos	0.005854	0.005625	-3.91%	0.006568	+12.21%	0.1552	✗	-0.02
2026-07-27	oos	0.006121	0.005878	-3.97%	0.006383	+4.27%	0.0823	✗	-0.01
2026-07-26	oos	0.006336	0.006078	-4.07%	0.00607	-4.21%	0.0027	✓	-0.04
2026-07-25	oos	0.006314	0.006054	-4.12%	0.005956	-5.66%	0.0183	✓	-0.09
2026-07-24	oos	0.006277	0.006017	-4.15%	0.006009	-4.27%	0.0031	✓	-0.10
2026-07-23	oos	0.006211	0.005954	-4.13%	0.005979	-3.72%	0.0040	✓	-0.05
2026-07-22	oos	0.006132	0.005883	-4.06%	0.006029	-1.67%	0.0247	✓	0.01
2026-07-21	oos	0.006357	0.006091	-4.19%	0.005854	-7.92%	0.0398	✓	-0.00
2026-07-20	oos	0.00625	0.005983	-4.28%	0.006121	-2.07%	0.0207	✓	-0.09
2026-07-19	oos	0.005801	0.005581	-3.79%	0.006336	+9.22%	0.1287	✗	-0.18
2026-07-18	oos	0.005801	0.005566	-4.04%	0.006314	+8.84%	0.1246	✗	-0.18
2026-07-17	oos	0.005798	0.005553	-4.23%	0.006277	+8.26%	0.1233	✗	-0.23
2026-07-16	oos	0.006041	0.005771	-4.48%	0.006211	+2.81%	0.0781	✗	-0.23
2026-07-15	oos	0.006107	0.005812	-4.83%	0.006132	+0.41%	0.0579	✗	-0.21
2026-07-14	oos	0.00645	0.006116	-5.17%	0.006357	-1.44%	0.0154	✓	1.00
2026-07-13	oos	0.00544	0.005207	-4.28%	0.00625	+14.89%	0.1363	✗	1.00
2026-07-12	oos	0.005863	0.005573	-4.94%	0.005801	-1.05%	0.0255	✓	1.00
2026-07-11	oos	0.005483	0.005187	-5.41%	0.005801	+5.80%	0.0960	✗	1.00
2026-07-10	oos	0.005	0.004729	-5.42%	0.005798	+15.97%	0.2075	✗	1.00
2026-07-09	oos	0.005597	0.005255	-6.11%	0.006041	+7.93%	0.1301	✗	1.00
2026-07-08	oos	0.004082	0.003935	-3.59%	0.006107	+49.61%	0.4004	✗	1.00
2026-07-07	oos	0.003864	0.003746	-3.04%	0.00645	+66.95%	0.5174	✗	1.00
2026-07-06	oos	0.00324	0.003167	-2.25%	0.00544	+67.91%	0.5686	✗	1.00
2026-07-05	oos	0.003242	0.003156	-2.66%	0.005863	+80.84%	0.6169	✗	1.00
2026-07-04	oos	0.003	0.002543	-15.25%	0.005483	+82.76%	0.7576	✗	1.00
2026-07-03	oos	0.002442	0.000849485	-65.22%	0.005	+104.73%	1.7472	✗	1.00
2026-07-02	oos	0.006625	0.006531	-1.42%	0.005597	-15.51%	0.1814	✓	1.00
2026-07-01	oos	0.007189	0.007098	-1.27%	0.004082	-43.22%	0.5905	✓	1.00
2026-06-30	oos	0.006933	0.00686	-1.06%	0.003864	-44.27%	0.6529	✓	1.00
2026-06-29	oos	0.007913	0.007793	-1.52%	0.00324	-59.06%	0.9395	✓	1.00
2026-06-28	oos	0.008785	0.008649	-1.55%	0.003242	-63.10%	1.0481	✓	1.00
2026-06-27	oos	0.008992	0.008846	-1.63%	0.003	-66.64%	1.1326	✓	1.00
2026-06-26	oos	0.009169	0.009016	-1.67%	0.002442	-73.37%	1.3472	✓	1.00
2026-06-25	oos	0.009313	0.009156	-1.68%	0.006625	-28.87%	0.3530	✓	1.00
2026-06-24	oos	0.010452	0.010267	-1.77%	0.007189	-31.22%	0.3395	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.