XEF

Xeffy · native · gru_s3

token id: #633
symbol: XEF
variant: –
chain: native
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-06-15
predictions: 360

Track record at +30d

assessed

90

of 120 predictions shown

direction hit

62.2%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.2554

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0762

actual -0.0978

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.004362	0.004125	-5.43%	–	pending	–	–	-0.35
2026-10-20	oos	0.00434	0.004112	-5.25%	–	pending	–	–	-0.35
2026-10-19	oos	0.004365	0.004116	-5.71%	–	pending	–	–	-0.34
2026-10-18	oos	0.0043	0.004068	-5.38%	–	pending	–	–	-0.33
2026-10-17	oos	0.004521	0.004252	-5.95%	–	pending	–	–	-0.31
2026-10-16	oos	0.004544	0.004284	-5.72%	–	pending	–	–	-0.31
2026-10-15	oos	0.004581	0.004339	-5.28%	–	pending	–	–	-0.31
2026-10-14	oos	0.004339	0.004132	-4.79%	–	pending	–	–	-0.31
2026-10-13	oos	0.004166	0.004041	-3.00%	–	pending	–	–	-0.29
2026-10-12	oos	0.00412	0.003972	-3.61%	–	pending	–	–	-0.28
2026-10-11	oos	0.004012	0.003949	-1.59%	–	pending	–	–	-0.06
2026-10-10	oos	0.004044	0.003952	-2.25%	–	pending	–	–	-0.01
2026-10-09	oos	0.004051	0.003945	-2.62%	–	pending	–	–	-0.01
2026-10-08	oos	0.003918	0.003809	-2.79%	–	pending	–	–	-0.04
2026-10-07	oos	0.004142	0.004032	-2.66%	–	pending	–	–	-0.11
2026-10-06	oos	0.00412	0.004085	-0.85%	–	pending	–	–	-0.00
2026-10-05	oos	0.004078	0.004059	-0.45%	–	pending	–	–	-0.03
2026-10-04	oos	0.004432	0.004363	-1.56%	–	pending	–	–	-0.13
2026-10-03	oos	0.003817	0.0038	-0.43%	–	pending	–	–	-0.20
2026-10-02	oos	0.004988	0.004676	-6.25%	–	pending	–	–	-0.20
2026-10-01	oos	0.005017	0.004716	-6.00%	–	pending	–	–	-0.17
2026-09-30	oos	0.005013	0.004653	-7.18%	–	pending	–	–	-0.54
2026-09-29	oos	0.004268	0.004144	-2.91%	–	pending	–	–	-0.56
2026-09-28	oos	0.004541	0.004343	-4.38%	–	pending	–	–	-0.53
2026-09-27	oos	0.004455	0.00433	-2.79%	–	pending	–	–	-0.40
2026-09-26	oos	0.004617	0.004451	-3.60%	–	pending	–	–	-0.43
2026-09-25	oos	0.004728	0.004527	-4.26%	–	pending	–	–	-0.42
2026-09-24	oos	0.005116	0.004807	-6.03%	–	pending	–	–	-0.43
2026-09-23	oos	0.004436	0.004374	-1.39%	–	pending	–	–	-0.42
2026-09-22	oos	0.004354	0.004408	+1.25%	–	pending	–	–	-0.33
2026-09-21	oos	0.004336	0.004429	+2.15%	0.004362	+0.58%	0.0278	✗	-0.27
2026-09-20	oos	0.004372	0.004247	-2.87%	0.00434	-0.73%	0.0296	✗	-0.36
2026-09-19	oos	0.004563	0.004407	-3.42%	0.004365	-4.34%	0.0068	✓	-0.37
2026-09-18	oos	0.004794	0.004577	-4.53%	0.0043	-10.32%	0.0579	✓	-0.33
2026-09-17	oos	0.005449	0.004921	-9.70%	0.004521	-17.03%	0.0732	✓	-0.18
2026-09-16	oos	0.004344	0.004288	-1.29%	0.004544	+4.61%	0.0703	✗	-0.18
2026-09-15	oos	0.003837	0.003926	+2.33%	0.004581	+19.39%	0.1896	✓	-0.43
2026-09-14	oos	0.003874	0.004048	+4.48%	0.004339	+12.01%	0.0824	✓	-0.30
2026-09-13	oos	0.003645	0.003855	+5.76%	0.004166	+14.28%	0.0964	✓	-0.24
2026-09-12	oos	0.003056	0.003298	+7.92%	0.00412	+34.84%	0.2337	✓	-0.19
2026-09-11	oos	0.003884	0.004097	+5.48%	0.004012	+3.30%	0.0046	✓	-0.20
2026-09-10	oos	0.003968	0.004146	+4.48%	0.004044	+1.89%	0.0089	✓	-0.20
2026-09-09	oos	0.00401	0.004232	+5.54%	0.004051	+1.04%	0.0330	✓	-0.20
2026-09-08	oos	0.004901	0.004969	+1.38%	0.003918	-20.06%	0.2285	✗	-0.22
2026-09-07	oos	0.004835	0.00494	+2.17%	0.004142	-14.32%	0.1649	✗	-0.22
2026-09-06	oos	0.004718	0.004902	+3.90%	0.00412	-12.67%	0.1614	✗	-0.20
2026-09-05	oos	0.004529	0.004818	+6.37%	0.004078	-9.97%	0.1523	✗	-0.20
2026-09-04	oos	0.004744	0.00508	+7.08%	0.004432	-6.56%	0.1195	✗	-0.20
2026-09-03	oos	0.005066	0.005493	+8.41%	0.003817	-24.66%	0.3537	✗	-0.24
2026-09-02	oos	0.005016	0.005337	+6.40%	0.004988	-0.55%	0.0404	✓	-0.30
2026-09-01	oos	0.004993	0.005364	+7.44%	0.005017	+0.48%	0.0391	✓	-0.30
2026-08-31	oos	0.004669	0.005097	+9.17%	0.005013	+7.36%	0.0009	✓	-0.26
2026-08-30	oos	0.005046	0.005455	+8.10%	0.004268	-15.43%	0.2279	✗	-0.24
2026-08-29	oos	0.005104	0.005548	+8.69%	0.004541	-11.03%	0.1850	✗	-0.24
2026-08-28	oos	0.005199	0.005638	+8.45%	0.004455	-14.32%	0.2164	✗	-0.24
2026-08-27	oos	0.005385	0.005968	+10.84%	0.004617	-14.26%	0.2432	✗	-0.27
2026-08-26	oos	0.005417	0.005936	+9.58%	0.004728	-12.72%	0.2104	✗	-0.28
2026-08-25	oos	0.005231	0.005726	+9.47%	0.005116	-2.20%	0.0923	✗	-0.28
2026-08-24	oos	0.005276	0.005799	+9.91%	0.004436	-15.93%	0.2494	✗	-0.28
2026-08-23	oos	0.005177	0.005608	+8.33%	0.004354	-15.89%	0.2218	✗	-0.30
2026-08-22	oos	0.005087	0.005437	+6.88%	0.004336	-14.75%	0.1898	✗	-0.31
2026-08-21	oos	0.004926	0.005249	+6.54%	0.004372	-11.25%	0.1727	✗	-0.28
2026-08-20	oos	0.00578	0.005789	+0.16%	0.004563	-21.05%	0.2506	✗	0.12
2026-08-19	oos	0.005749	0.005585	-2.84%	0.004794	-16.60%	0.1650	✓	0.08
2026-08-18	oos	0.00582	0.00549	-5.66%	0.005449	-6.36%	0.0224	✓	0.09
2026-08-17	oos	0.00589	0.005531	-6.10%	0.004344	-26.25%	0.2564	✓	0.09
2026-08-16	oos	0.00599	0.00556	-7.18%	0.003837	-35.94%	0.3888	✓	0.10
2026-08-15	oos	0.005993	0.005552	-7.36%	0.003874	-35.35%	0.3811	✓	0.10
2026-08-14	oos	0.005916	0.005479	-7.40%	0.003645	-38.39%	0.4264	✓	0.10
2026-08-13	oos	0.005929	0.005474	-7.68%	0.003056	-48.46%	0.6033	✓	0.10
2026-08-12	oos	0.006068	0.005563	-8.33%	0.003884	-35.99%	0.3796	✓	0.10
2026-08-11	oos	0.006474	0.005903	-8.83%	0.003968	-38.70%	0.4155	✓	0.10
2026-08-10	oos	0.006798	0.006172	-9.21%	0.00401	-41.02%	0.4487	✓	0.09
2026-08-09	oos	0.006782	0.006151	-9.31%	0.004901	-27.73%	0.2472	✓	0.11
2026-08-08	oos	0.006455	0.005839	-9.54%	0.004835	-25.10%	0.2102	✓	0.11
2026-08-07	oos	0.006942	0.006252	-9.95%	0.004718	-32.04%	0.3053	✓	0.11
2026-08-06	oos	0.007076	0.006344	-10.35%	0.004529	-35.99%	0.3619	✓	0.12
2026-08-05	oos	0.00732	0.006525	-10.86%	0.004744	-35.20%	0.3417	✓	0.11
2026-08-04	oos	0.006568	0.005868	-10.66%	0.005066	-22.87%	0.1517	✓	0.02
2026-08-03	oos	0.006383	0.00569	-10.86%	0.005016	-21.42%	0.1228	✓	-0.02
2026-08-02	oos	0.00607	0.005413	-10.81%	0.004993	-17.74%	0.0772	✓	-0.02
2026-08-01	oos	0.005956	0.005306	-10.92%	0.004669	-21.61%	0.1147	✓	-0.06
2026-07-31	oos	0.006009	0.005343	-11.09%	0.005046	-16.03%	0.0448	✓	-0.06
2026-07-30	oos	0.005979	0.005323	-10.98%	0.005104	-14.63%	0.0423	✓	0.00
2026-07-29	oos	0.006029	0.005357	-11.14%	0.005199	-13.77%	0.0273	✓	-0.01
2026-07-28	oos	0.005854	0.005204	-11.11%	0.005385	-8.01%	0.0390	✓	-0.02
2026-07-27	oos	0.006121	0.005424	-11.39%	0.005417	-11.50%	0.0019	✓	-0.01
2026-07-26	oos	0.006336	0.005602	-11.59%	0.005231	-17.44%	0.0605	✓	-0.04
2026-07-25	oos	0.006314	0.005566	-11.85%	0.005276	-16.43%	0.0358	✓	-0.09
2026-07-24	oos	0.006277	0.005526	-11.97%	0.005177	-17.53%	0.0466	✓	-0.10
2026-07-23	oos	0.006211	0.005476	-11.83%	0.005087	-18.09%	0.0651	✓	-0.05
2026-07-22	oos	0.006132	0.005423	-11.56%	0.004926	-19.66%	0.0970	✓	0.01
2026-07-21	oos	0.006357	0.00561	-11.75%	0.00578	-9.08%	0.0299	✓	-0.00
2026-07-20	oos	0.00625	0.005501	-11.98%	0.005749	-8.03%	0.0494	✓	-0.09
2026-07-19	oos	0.005801	0.005165	-10.96%	0.00582	+0.32%	0.1192	✗	-0.18
2026-07-18	oos	0.005801	0.005125	-11.66%	0.00589	+1.54%	0.1384	✗	-0.18
2026-07-17	oos	0.005798	0.005086	-12.29%	0.00599	+3.30%	0.1597	✗	-0.23
2026-07-16	oos	0.006041	0.005256	-13.00%	0.005993	-0.80%	0.1285	✓	-0.23
2026-07-15	oos	0.006107	0.00526	-13.87%	0.005916	-3.12%	0.1120	✓	-0.21
2026-07-14	oos	0.00645	0.005518	-14.45%	0.005929	-8.08%	0.0962	✓	1.00
2026-07-13	oos	0.00544	0.004737	-12.93%	0.006068	+11.55%	0.2295	✗	1.00
2026-07-12	oos	0.005863	0.005018	-14.41%	0.006474	+10.43%	0.2580	✗	1.00
2026-07-11	oos	0.005483	0.004624	-15.66%	0.006798	+23.98%	0.3831	✗	1.00
2026-07-10	oos	0.005	0.0042	-16.01%	0.006782	+35.64%	0.4681	✗	1.00
2026-07-09	oos	0.005597	0.00466	-16.74%	0.006455	+15.32%	0.2987	✗	1.00
2026-07-08	oos	0.004082	0.003523	-13.70%	0.006942	+70.08%	0.6367	✗	1.00
2026-07-07	oos	0.003864	0.003373	-12.71%	0.007076	+83.15%	0.7263	✗	1.00
2026-07-06	oos	0.00324	0.002861	-11.71%	0.00732	+125.94%	0.9303	✗	1.00
2026-07-05	oos	0.003242	0.002842	-12.34%	0.006568	+102.62%	0.8305	✗	1.00
2026-07-04	oos	0.003	0.001981	-33.98%	0.006383	+112.76%	1.1642	✗	1.00
2026-07-03	oos	0.002442	0.000291491	-88.06%	0.00607	+148.53%	3.0205	✗	1.00
2026-07-02	oos	0.006625	0.006314	-4.69%	0.005956	-10.09%	0.0790	✓	1.00
2026-07-01	oos	0.007189	0.006853	-4.67%	0.006009	-16.41%	0.1781	✓	1.00
2026-06-30	oos	0.006933	0.006603	-4.75%	0.005979	-13.75%	0.1999	✓	1.00
2026-06-29	oos	0.007913	0.007541	-4.70%	0.006029	-23.81%	0.2840	✓	1.00
2026-06-28	oos	0.008785	0.008379	-4.62%	0.005854	-33.37%	0.4296	✓	1.00
2026-06-27	oos	0.008992	0.008567	-4.73%	0.006121	-31.93%	0.3970	✓	1.00
2026-06-26	oos	0.009169	0.008727	-4.83%	0.006336	-30.90%	0.4054	✓	1.00
2026-06-25	oos	0.009313	0.008856	-4.91%	0.006314	-32.21%	0.4125	✓	1.00
2026-06-24	oos	0.010452	0.00994	-4.90%	0.006277	-39.94%	0.5092	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.