UMX

UMX · · gru_s3

token id: #759
symbol: UMX
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-07
predictions: 204

Track record at +7d

assessed

61

of 68 predictions shown

direction hit

80.3%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0758

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0103

actual -0.0783

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.041845	0.041738	-0.26%	–	pending	–	–	0.20
2026-10-21	oos	0.03934	0.039378	+0.10%	–	pending	–	–	0.20
2026-10-20	oos	0.042915	0.042794	-0.28%	–	pending	–	–	0.22
2026-10-19	oos	0.05515	0.054451	-1.27%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-18	oos	0.055405	0.05473	-1.22%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-17	oos	0.05585	0.055141	-1.27%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-16	oos	0.059095	0.058307	-1.33%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-15	oos	0.059045	0.058386	-1.12%	0.041845	-29.13%	0.3406	✓	0.30
2026-10-14	oos	0.05934	0.058731	-1.03%	0.03934	-33.70%	0.4095	✓	0.29
2026-10-13	oos	0.05942	0.059035	-0.65%	0.042915	-27.78%	0.3183	✓	0.32
2026-10-12	oos	0.06042	0.059893	-0.87%	0.05515	-8.72%	0.0829	✓	0.31
2026-10-11	oos	0.060205	0.059947	-0.43%	0.055405	-7.97%	0.0717	✓	0.35
2026-10-10	oos	0.06067	0.060305	-0.60%	0.05585	-7.94%	0.0703	✓	0.35
2026-10-09	oos	0.060945	0.060496	-0.74%	0.059095	-3.04%	0.0190	✓	0.35
2026-10-08	oos	0.06053	0.059933	-0.99%	0.059045	-2.45%	0.0167	✓	0.34
2026-10-07	oos	0.061825	0.061162	-1.07%	0.05934	-4.02%	0.0229	✓	0.35
2026-10-06	oos	0.061715	0.06124	-0.77%	0.05942	-3.72%	0.0185	✓	0.40
2026-10-05	oos	0.06169	0.061018	-1.09%	0.06042	-2.06%	0.0099	✓	0.41
2026-10-04	oos	0.06171	0.061212	-0.81%	0.060205	-2.44%	0.0023	✓	0.43
2026-10-03	oos	0.061395	0.060771	-1.02%	0.06067	-1.18%	0.0073	✓	0.41
2026-10-02	oos	0.0617	0.061059	-1.04%	0.060945	-1.22%	0.0079	✓	0.41
2026-10-01	oos	0.06148	0.060921	-0.91%	0.06053	-1.55%	0.0098	✗	0.43
2026-09-30	oos	0.06139	0.060643	-1.22%	0.061825	+0.71%	0.0207	✗	0.42
2026-09-29	oos	0.06121	0.060475	-1.20%	0.061715	+0.83%	0.0108	✓	0.42
2026-09-28	oos	0.060615	0.059862	-1.24%	0.06169	+1.77%	0.0185	✗	0.43
2026-09-27	oos	0.06074	0.060054	-1.13%	0.06171	+1.60%	0.0163	✗	0.46
2026-09-26	oos	0.06106	0.060314	-1.22%	0.061395	+0.55%	0.0160	✗	0.46
2026-09-25	oos	0.060915	0.060114	-1.31%	0.0617	+1.29%	0.0238	✗	0.46
2026-09-24	oos	0.06117	0.060362	-1.32%	0.06148	+0.51%	0.0157	✗	0.48
2026-09-23	oos	0.06117	0.060334	-1.37%	0.06139	+0.36%	0.0221	✗	0.48
2026-09-22	oos	0.060735	0.060141	-0.98%	0.06121	+0.78%	0.0341	✗	0.55
2026-09-21	oos	0.06117	0.060635	-0.87%	0.060615	-0.91%	0.0205	✗	0.56
2026-09-20	oos	0.061435	0.060253	-1.92%	0.06074	-1.13%	0.0139	✓	0.55
2026-09-19	oos	0.06046	0.059396	-1.76%	0.06106	+0.99%	0.0059	✓	0.57
2026-09-18	oos	0.06137	0.060296	-1.75%	0.060915	-0.74%	0.0119	✓	0.57
2026-09-17	oos	0.06115	0.059784	-2.23%	0.06117	+0.03%	0.0286	✓	0.51
2026-09-16	oos	0.06201	0.060649	-2.19%	0.06117	-1.35%	0.0445	✓	0.52
2026-09-15	oos	0.06086	0.059679	-1.94%	0.060735	-0.21%	0.0489	✓	0.51
2026-09-14	oos	0.06052	0.059641	-1.45%	0.06117	+1.07%	0.0419	✓	0.66
2026-09-13	oos	0.060775	0.059897	-1.44%	0.061435	+1.09%	0.0094	✓	0.63
2026-09-12	oos	0.062595	0.06171	-1.41%	0.06046	-3.41%	0.0529	✓	0.65
2026-09-11	oos	0.065045	0.064072	-1.50%	0.06137	-5.65%	0.0733	✓	0.65
2026-09-10	oos	0.06506	0.064131	-1.43%	0.06115	-6.01%	0.0460	✓	0.64
2026-09-09	oos	0.06486	0.064187	-1.04%	0.06201	-4.39%	0.0134	✓	0.76
2026-09-08	oos	0.066495	0.065812	-1.03%	0.06086	-8.47%	0.0493	✓	0.78
2026-09-07	oos	0.068065	0.067424	-0.94%	0.06052	-11.08%	0.0985	✓	0.82
2026-09-06	oos	0.06993	0.069396	-0.76%	0.060775	-13.09%	0.0929	✓	0.88
2026-09-05	oos	0.071875	0.071298	-0.80%	0.062595	-12.91%	0.0975	✓	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.07207	0.071548	-0.72%	0.065045	-9.75%	0.0638	✓	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.07313	0.072918	-0.29%	0.06506	-11.04%	0.0541	✓	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07424	0.073565	-0.91%	0.06486	-12.63%	0.1385	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.07438	0.07382	-0.75%	0.066495	-10.60%	0.1180	✓	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.07495	0.074593	-0.48%	0.068065	-9.19%	0.0983	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.07579	0.075333	-0.60%	0.06993	-7.73%	0.1083	✓	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.07513	0.074847	-0.38%	0.071875	-4.33%	0.0607	✓	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.07633	0.075999	-0.43%	0.07207	-5.58%	0.0764	✓	1.00
2026-08-27	oos	0.07696	0.077018	+0.08%	0.07313	-4.98%	0.0640	✗	1.00
2026-08-26	oos	0.08217	0.081928	-0.29%	0.07424	-9.65%	0.0765	✓	1.00
2026-08-25	oos	0.08355	0.083246	-0.36%	0.07438	-10.98%	0.0981	✓	1.00
2026-08-24	oos	0.08871	0.088356	-0.40%	0.07495	-15.51%	0.1592	✓	1.00
2026-08-23	oos	0.08672	0.086301	-0.48%	0.07579	-12.60%	0.1290	✓	1.00
2026-08-22	oos	0.08671	0.086273	-0.50%	0.07513	-13.35%	0.1535	✓	1.00
2026-08-21	oos	0.08346	0.083472	+0.01%	0.07633	-8.54%	0.0832	✗	1.00
2026-08-20	oos	0.08276	0.081986	-0.94%	0.07696	-7.01%	0.1581	✓	1.00
2026-08-19	oos	0.08486	0.083602	-1.48%	0.08217	-3.17%	0.1486	✓	1.00
2026-08-18	oos	0.08495	0.083508	-1.70%	0.08355	-1.65%	0.1935	✓	1.00
2026-08-17	oos	0.08465	0.083221	-1.69%	0.08871	+4.80%	0.1390	✓	1.00
2026-08-16	oos	0.08446	0.083022	-1.70%	0.08672	+2.68%	0.1691	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.