UMX

UMX · · gru_s3

token id: #759
symbol: UMX
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-07
predictions: 204

Track record at +30d

assessed

38

of 68 predictions shown

direction hit

100.0%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1774

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0945

actual -0.2663

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.041845	0.040699	-2.74%	–	pending	–	–	0.20
2026-10-21	oos	0.03934	0.03835	-2.52%	–	pending	–	–	0.20
2026-10-20	oos	0.042915	0.041471	-3.36%	–	pending	–	–	0.22
2026-10-19	oos	0.05515	0.053046	-3.82%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-18	oos	0.055405	0.053309	-3.78%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-17	oos	0.05585	0.053634	-3.97%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-16	oos	0.059095	0.056989	-3.56%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-15	oos	0.059045	0.057328	-2.91%	–	pending	–	–	0.30
2026-10-14	oos	0.05934	0.057743	-2.69%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-13	oos	0.05942	0.058504	-1.54%	–	pending	–	–	0.32
2026-10-12	oos	0.06042	0.059148	-2.11%	–	pending	–	–	0.31
2026-10-11	oos	0.060205	0.059682	-0.87%	–	pending	–	–	0.35
2026-10-10	oos	0.06067	0.05989	-1.29%	–	pending	–	–	0.35
2026-10-09	oos	0.060945	0.059966	-1.61%	–	pending	–	–	0.35
2026-10-08	oos	0.06053	0.059014	-2.50%	–	pending	–	–	0.34
2026-10-07	oos	0.061825	0.060184	-2.65%	–	pending	–	–	0.35
2026-10-06	oos	0.061715	0.060416	-2.11%	–	pending	–	–	0.40
2026-10-05	oos	0.06169	0.058973	-4.40%	–	pending	–	–	0.41
2026-10-04	oos	0.06171	0.059463	-3.64%	–	pending	–	–	0.43
2026-10-03	oos	0.061395	0.058704	-4.38%	–	pending	–	–	0.41
2026-10-02	oos	0.0617	0.058914	-4.52%	–	pending	–	–	0.41
2026-10-01	oos	0.06148	0.058729	-4.47%	–	pending	–	–	0.43
2026-09-30	oos	0.06139	0.058011	-5.50%	–	pending	–	–	0.42
2026-09-29	oos	0.06121	0.057611	-5.88%	–	pending	–	–	0.42
2026-09-28	oos	0.060615	0.056753	-6.37%	–	pending	–	–	0.43
2026-09-27	oos	0.06074	0.056824	-6.45%	–	pending	–	–	0.46
2026-09-26	oos	0.06106	0.056724	-7.10%	–	pending	–	–	0.46
2026-09-25	oos	0.060915	0.056215	-7.71%	–	pending	–	–	0.46
2026-09-24	oos	0.06117	0.056229	-8.08%	–	pending	–	–	0.48
2026-09-23	oos	0.06117	0.055929	-8.57%	–	pending	–	–	0.48
2026-09-22	oos	0.060735	0.055645	-8.38%	0.041845	-31.10%	0.2723	✓	0.55
2026-09-21	oos	0.06117	0.055956	-8.52%	0.03934	-35.69%	0.3353	✓	0.56
2026-09-20	oos	0.061435	0.05542	-9.79%	0.042915	-30.15%	0.2676	✓	0.55
2026-09-19	oos	0.06046	0.054626	-9.65%	0.05515	-8.78%	0.0053	✓	0.57
2026-09-18	oos	0.06137	0.055485	-9.59%	0.055405	-9.72%	0.0093	✓	0.57
2026-09-17	oos	0.06115	0.055522	-9.20%	0.05585	-8.67%	0.0269	✓	0.51
2026-09-16	oos	0.06201	0.056387	-9.07%	0.059095	-4.70%	0.0118	✓	0.52
2026-09-15	oos	0.06086	0.055572	-8.69%	0.059045	-2.98%	0.0187	✓	0.51
2026-09-14	oos	0.06052	0.055389	-8.48%	0.05934	-1.95%	0.0410	✓	0.66
2026-09-13	oos	0.060775	0.055706	-8.34%	0.05942	-2.23%	0.0148	✓	0.63
2026-09-12	oos	0.062595	0.05738	-8.33%	0.06042	-3.47%	0.0151	✓	0.65
2026-09-11	oos	0.065045	0.059588	-8.39%	0.060205	-7.44%	0.0421	✓	0.65
2026-09-10	oos	0.06506	0.059641	-8.33%	0.06067	-6.75%	0.0342	✓	0.64
2026-09-09	oos	0.06486	0.05966	-8.02%	0.060945	-6.04%	0.0190	✓	0.76
2026-09-08	oos	0.066495	0.061141	-8.05%	0.06053	-8.97%	0.0416	✓	0.78
2026-09-07	oos	0.068065	0.06263	-7.98%	0.061825	-9.17%	0.0550	✓	0.82
2026-09-06	oos	0.06993	0.064422	-7.88%	0.061715	-11.75%	0.0983	✓	0.88
2026-09-05	oos	0.071875	0.066206	-7.89%	0.06169	-14.17%	0.1422	✓	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.07207	0.066303	-8.00%	0.06171	-14.37%	0.1541	✓	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.07313	0.067889	-7.17%	0.061395	-16.05%	0.1425	✓	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07424	0.068254	-8.06%	0.0617	-16.89%	0.1900	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.07438	0.06864	-7.72%	0.06148	-17.34%	0.2021	✓	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.07495	0.069388	-7.42%	0.06139	-18.09%	0.1841	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.07579	0.069929	-7.73%	0.06121	-19.24%	0.2073	✓	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.07513	0.069394	-7.64%	0.060615	-19.32%	0.1999	✓	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.07633	0.070324	-7.87%	0.06074	-20.42%	0.2282	✓	1.00
2026-08-27	oos	0.07696	0.071434	-7.18%	0.06106	-20.66%	0.2072	✓	1.00
2026-08-26	oos	0.08217	0.075874	-7.66%	0.060915	-25.87%	0.2817	✓	1.00
2026-08-25	oos	0.08355	0.077039	-7.79%	0.06117	-26.79%	0.3026	✓	1.00
2026-08-24	oos	0.08871	0.081875	-7.70%	0.06117	-31.04%	0.3576	✓	1.00
2026-08-23	oos	0.08672	0.079781	-8.00%	0.060735	-29.96%	0.3762	✓	1.00
2026-08-22	oos	0.08671	0.07955	-8.26%	0.06117	-29.45%	0.3795	✓	1.00
2026-08-21	oos	0.08346	0.076508	-8.33%	0.061435	-26.39%	0.2550	✓	1.00
2026-08-20	oos	0.08276	0.07326	-11.48%	0.06046	-26.95%	0.2987	✓	1.00
2026-08-19	oos	0.08486	0.074204	-12.56%	0.06137	-27.68%	0.3444	✓	1.00
2026-08-18	oos	0.08495	0.073217	-13.81%	0.06115	-28.02%	0.3459	✓	1.00
2026-08-17	oos	0.08465	0.071505	-15.53%	0.06201	-26.75%	0.3088	✓	1.00
2026-08-16	oos	0.08446	0.070108	-16.99%	0.06086	-27.94%	0.3262	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.