TOLLY
Tolly · Arc · gru_s3
- token id
- #737
- symbol
- TOLLY
- variant
- –
- chain
- Arc
- address
- 0xbc43ce8dec648ea298c4275559b81d6261c90b67
- cohort
- datapoint (mid-window listing)
- first bar
- 2026-09-16
- predictions
- 81
Track record at +7d
assessed
20
of 27 predictions shown
direction hit
55.0%
alpha space; 50% is a coin flip
MAE (alpha)
0.4340
mean absolute log-return error
mean pred / actual
-0.0002
actual -0.4158
History
| as of | split | anchor px | pred px | pred Δ | actual px | actual Δ | alpha err | hit | β90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | oos | 0.001791 | 0.001728 | -3.54% | – | pending | – | – | -1.74 |
| 2026-10-20 | oos | 0.001677 | 0.001633 | -2.63% | – | pending | – | – | -1.70 |
| 2026-10-19 | oos | 0.001597 | 0.001575 | -1.36% | – | pending | – | – | -1.80 |
| 2026-10-18 | oos | 0.001213 | 0.001239 | +2.18% | – | pending | – | – | -1.68 |
| 2026-10-17 | oos | 0.001311 | 0.001339 | +2.13% | – | pending | – | – | -1.67 |
| 2026-10-16 | oos | 0.001335 | 0.001367 | +2.42% | – | pending | – | – | -1.66 |
| 2026-10-15 | oos | 0.001447 | 0.00148 | +2.32% | – | pending | – | – | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-14 | oos | 0.001505 | 0.001542 | +2.48% | 0.001791 | +19.00% | 0.1358 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-13 | oos | 0.001563 | 0.001601 | +2.44% | 0.001677 | +7.29% | 0.0483 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-12 | oos | 0.001742 | 0.001781 | +2.24% | 0.001597 | -8.32% | 0.1102 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-11 | oos | 0.002234 | 0.002247 | +0.58% | 0.001213 | -45.70% | 0.5963 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-10 | oos | 0.002289 | 0.002308 | +0.82% | 0.001311 | -42.74% | 0.5471 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-09 | oos | 0.002722 | 0.002712 | -0.38% | 0.001335 | -50.96% | 0.6959 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-08 | oos | 0.002247 | 0.002285 | +1.69% | 0.001447 | -35.60% | 0.4621 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-07 | oos | 0.002574 | 0.002597 | +0.89% | 0.001505 | -41.53% | 0.5248 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-06 | oos | 0.002262 | 0.002297 | +1.55% | 0.001563 | -30.90% | 0.3561 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-05 | oos | 0.002414 | 0.002447 | +1.36% | 0.001742 | -27.84% | 0.2919 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-04 | oos | 0.003086 | 0.003097 | +0.36% | 0.002234 | -27.61% | 0.2934 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-03 | oos | 0.003156 | 0.003159 | +0.10% | 0.002289 | -27.46% | 0.3002 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-02 | oos | 0.003975 | 0.00393 | -1.12% | 0.002722 | -31.52% | 0.3439 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-01 | oos | 0.003762 | 0.003722 | -1.08% | 0.002247 | -40.27% | 0.4666 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-30 | oos | 0.003846 | 0.003791 | -1.43% | 0.002574 | -33.07% | 0.3838 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-29 | oos | 0.003944 | 0.003873 | -1.81% | 0.002262 | -42.65% | 0.5602 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-28 | oos | 0.005021 | 0.00493 | -1.82% | 0.002414 | -51.92% | 0.7411 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-27 | oos | 0.005559 | 0.005455 | -1.87% | 0.003086 | -44.49% | 0.5936 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-26 | oos | 0.006251 | 0.006115 | -2.17% | 0.003156 | -49.51% | 0.6653 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-25 | oos | 0.007163 | 0.006953 | -2.93% | 0.003975 | -44.51% | 0.5640 | ✓ | 1.00 |