TOLLY
Tolly · Arc · gru_s3
- token id
- #737
- symbol
- TOLLY
- variant
- –
- chain
- Arc
- address
- 0xbc43ce8dec648ea298c4275559b81d6261c90b67
- cohort
- datapoint (mid-window listing)
- first bar
- 2026-09-16
- predictions
- 81
Track record at +1d
assessed
26
of 27 predictions shown
direction hit
42.3%
alpha space; 50% is a coin flip
MAE (alpha)
0.1137
mean absolute log-return error
mean pred / actual
+0.0013
actual -0.0511
History
| as of | split | anchor px | pred px | pred Δ | actual px | actual Δ | alpha err | hit | β90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | oos | 0.001791 | 0.001773 | -0.99% | – | pending | – | – | -1.74 |
| 2026-10-20 | oos | 0.001677 | 0.001664 | -0.76% | 0.001791 | +6.80% | 0.0685 | ✗ | -1.70 |
| 2026-10-19 | oos | 0.001597 | 0.00159 | -0.46% | 0.001677 | +5.01% | 0.0775 | ✗ | -1.80 |
| 2026-10-18 | oos | 0.001213 | 0.001223 | +0.80% | 0.001597 | +31.66% | 0.2636 | ✓ | -1.68 |
| 2026-10-17 | oos | 0.001311 | 0.001321 | +0.78% | 0.001213 | -7.48% | 0.0726 | ✗ | -1.67 |
| 2026-10-16 | oos | 0.001335 | 0.001347 | +0.87% | 0.001311 | -1.80% | 0.0292 | ✗ | -1.66 |
| 2026-10-15 | oos | 0.001447 | 0.001459 | +0.82% | 0.001335 | -7.74% | 0.0811 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-14 | oos | 0.001505 | 0.001518 | +0.87% | 0.001447 | -3.85% | 0.0548 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-13 | oos | 0.001563 | 0.001576 | +0.86% | 0.001505 | -3.71% | 0.0278 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-12 | oos | 0.001742 | 0.001756 | +0.82% | 0.001563 | -10.28% | 0.1331 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-11 | oos | 0.002234 | 0.002241 | +0.31% | 0.001742 | -22.02% | 0.2285 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-10 | oos | 0.002289 | 0.002298 | +0.38% | 0.002234 | -2.42% | 0.0376 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-09 | oos | 0.002722 | 0.002719 | -0.10% | 0.002289 | -15.89% | 0.1765 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-08 | oos | 0.002247 | 0.002261 | +0.61% | 0.002722 | +21.14% | 0.1753 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-07 | oos | 0.002574 | 0.002582 | +0.29% | 0.002247 | -12.70% | 0.1196 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-06 | oos | 0.002262 | 0.002274 | +0.55% | 0.002574 | +13.79% | 0.1506 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-05 | oos | 0.002414 | 0.002426 | +0.49% | 0.002262 | -6.30% | 0.0675 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-04 | oos | 0.003086 | 0.00309 | +0.14% | 0.002414 | -21.78% | 0.2382 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-03 | oos | 0.003156 | 0.003159 | +0.09% | 0.003086 | -2.22% | 0.0439 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-02 | oos | 0.003975 | 0.003961 | -0.34% | 0.003156 | -20.60% | 0.2301 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-01 | oos | 0.003762 | 0.003751 | -0.28% | 0.003975 | +5.66% | 0.0620 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-30 | oos | 0.003846 | 0.003833 | -0.33% | 0.003762 | -2.18% | 0.0341 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-29 | oos | 0.003944 | 0.00393 | -0.36% | 0.003846 | -2.48% | 0.0205 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-28 | oos | 0.005021 | 0.005 | -0.42% | 0.003944 | -21.45% | 0.2394 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-27 | oos | 0.005559 | 0.005533 | -0.47% | 0.005021 | -9.68% | 0.0851 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-26 | oos | 0.006251 | 0.006212 | -0.63% | 0.005559 | -11.07% | 0.1115 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-25 | oos | 0.007163 | 0.007083 | -1.11% | 0.006251 | -12.73% | 0.1288 | ✓ | 1.00 |