DRV

Derive · Ethereum · gru_s3

token id: #111
symbol: DRV
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0xb1d1eae60eea9525032a6dcb4c1ce336a1de71be
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-05-28
predictions: 414

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +7d

assessed

131

of 138 predictions shown

direction hit

54.2%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1614

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0330

actual +0.0604

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.386075	0.374397	-3.02%	–	pending	–	–	1.43
2026-10-20	oos	0.398745	0.385668	-3.28%	–	pending	–	–	1.43
2026-10-19	oos	0.39882	0.385809	-3.26%	–	pending	–	–	1.43
2026-10-18	oos	0.38187	0.370467	-2.99%	–	pending	–	–	1.41
2026-10-17	oos	0.403015	0.38892	-3.50%	–	pending	–	–	1.41
2026-10-16	oos	0.387205	0.374061	-3.39%	–	pending	–	–	1.42
2026-10-15	oos	0.41127	0.394959	-3.97%	–	pending	–	–	1.39
2026-10-14	oos	0.416385	0.399956	-3.95%	0.386075	-7.28%	0.0544	✓	1.39
2026-10-13	oos	0.450845	0.430104	-4.60%	0.398745	-11.56%	0.0730	✓	1.38
2026-10-12	oos	0.4408	0.420593	-4.58%	0.39882	-9.52%	0.0548	✓	1.40
2026-10-11	oos	0.49633	0.471261	-5.05%	0.38187	-23.06%	0.1787	✓	1.57
2026-10-10	oos	0.538615	0.508786	-5.54%	0.403015	-25.18%	0.2032	✓	1.61
2026-10-09	oos	0.515775	0.48532	-5.90%	0.387205	-24.93%	0.2054	✓	1.61
2026-10-08	oos	0.436745	0.413694	-5.28%	0.41127	-5.83%	0.0141	✓	1.57
2026-10-07	oos	0.373545	0.358489	-4.03%	0.416385	+11.47%	0.1844	✗	1.67
2026-10-06	oos	0.407595	0.388871	-4.59%	0.450845	+10.61%	0.1951	✗	1.63
2026-10-05	oos	0.41208	0.392161	-4.83%	0.4408	+6.97%	0.1948	✗	1.63
2026-10-04	oos	0.41695	0.395913	-5.05%	0.49633	+19.04%	0.2803	✗	1.63
2026-10-03	oos	0.38453	0.365731	-4.89%	0.538615	+40.07%	0.4224	✗	1.61
2026-10-02	oos	0.39644	0.375955	-5.17%	0.515775	+30.10%	0.3541	✗	1.62
2026-10-01	oos	0.395175	0.373991	-5.36%	0.436745	+10.52%	0.2161	✗	1.61
2026-09-30	oos	0.38983	0.368885	-5.37%	0.373545	-4.18%	0.0179	✓	1.60
2026-09-29	oos	0.381685	0.360726	-5.49%	0.407595	+6.79%	0.0863	✗	1.59
2026-09-28	oos	0.36952	0.349599	-5.39%	0.41208	+11.52%	0.1228	✗	1.54
2026-09-27	oos	0.43524	0.408215	-6.21%	0.41695	-4.20%	0.0119	✓	1.38
2026-09-26	oos	0.412955	0.388175	-6.00%	0.38453	-6.88%	0.0148	✓	1.39
2026-09-25	oos	0.44425	0.416009	-6.36%	0.39644	-10.76%	0.0547	✓	1.34
2026-09-24	oos	0.45364	0.422984	-6.76%	0.395175	-12.89%	0.0753	✓	1.33
2026-09-23	oos	0.48606	0.447782	-7.88%	0.38983	-19.80%	0.1256	✓	1.32
2026-09-22	oos	0.436315	0.404701	-7.25%	0.381685	-12.52%	0.0166	✓	1.39
2026-09-21	oos	0.4043	0.375798	-7.05%	0.36952	-8.60%	0.0356	✓	1.42
2026-09-20	oos	0.391515	0.363455	-7.17%	0.43524	+11.17%	0.1186	✗	1.55
2026-09-19	oos	0.446505	0.404275	-9.46%	0.412955	-7.51%	0.0369	✓	1.51
2026-09-18	oos	0.29519	0.275145	-6.79%	0.44425	+50.50%	0.4194	✗	1.53
2026-09-17	oos	0.25509	0.239782	-6.00%	0.45364	+77.84%	0.4927	✗	1.45
2026-09-16	oos	0.24457	0.227615	-6.93%	0.48606	+98.74%	0.6104	✗	1.44
2026-09-15	oos	0.13705	0.135069	-1.45%	0.436315	+218.36%	0.9940	✗	1.36
2026-09-14	oos	0.140985	0.13865	-1.66%	0.4043	+186.77%	0.9292	✗	1.38
2026-09-13	oos	0.14356	0.141102	-1.71%	0.391515	+172.72%	0.9432	✗	1.40
2026-09-12	oos	0.14992	0.147087	-1.89%	0.446505	+197.83%	1.0407	✗	1.39
2026-09-11	oos	0.148505	0.146118	-1.61%	0.29519	+98.77%	0.6393	✗	1.38
2026-09-10	oos	0.147705	0.145541	-1.46%	0.25509	+72.70%	0.5645	✗	1.37
2026-09-09	oos	0.154095	0.151801	-1.49%	0.24457	+58.71%	0.5146	✗	1.36
2026-09-08	oos	0.16393	0.16083	-1.89%	0.13705	-16.40%	0.1095	✓	1.36
2026-09-07	oos	0.1575	0.155684	-1.15%	0.140985	-10.49%	0.0830	✓	1.39
2026-09-06	oos	0.16514	0.163401	-1.05%	0.14356	-13.07%	0.0667	✓	1.39
2026-09-05	oos	0.17224	0.169494	-1.59%	0.14992	-12.96%	0.0774	✓	1.38
2026-09-04	oos	0.14964	0.150269	+0.42%	0.148505	-0.76%	0.0341	✓	1.46
2026-09-03	oos	0.15856	0.159031	+0.30%	0.147705	-6.85%	0.0118	✓	1.43
2026-09-02	oos	0.14371	0.143566	-0.10%	0.154095	+7.23%	0.0518	✗	1.51
2026-09-01	oos	0.14284	0.142678	-0.11%	0.16393	+14.76%	0.1185	✗	1.51
2026-08-31	oos	0.153755	0.152561	-0.78%	0.1575	+2.44%	0.0234	✗	1.26
2026-08-30	oos	0.15632	0.154052	-1.45%	0.16514	+5.64%	0.0268	✗	1.26
2026-08-29	oos	0.1719	0.168127	-2.19%	0.17224	+0.20%	0.0023	✓	1.08
2026-08-28	oos	0.16944	0.165315	-2.43%	0.14964	-11.69%	0.1249	✓	1.08
2026-08-27	oos	0.17649	0.172029	-2.53%	0.15856	-10.16%	0.0946	✓	1.07
2026-08-26	oos	0.166915	0.162493	-2.65%	0.14371	-13.90%	0.0996	✓	1.06
2026-08-25	oos	0.14804	0.145616	-1.64%	0.14284	-3.51%	0.0042	✓	1.04
2026-08-24	oos	0.163815	0.158649	-3.15%	0.153755	-6.14%	0.0259	✓	1.03
2026-08-23	oos	0.13109	0.129313	-1.36%	0.15632	+19.25%	0.1905	✗	0.95
2026-08-22	oos	0.11334	0.112645	-0.61%	0.1719	+51.67%	0.4087	✗	0.92
2026-08-21	oos	0.11888	0.117933	-0.80%	0.16944	+42.53%	0.3680	✗	0.91
2026-08-20	oos	0.098475	0.097176	-1.32%	0.17649	+79.22%	0.5342	✗	0.66
2026-08-19	oos	0.09869	0.09613	-2.59%	0.166915	+69.13%	0.4566	✗	0.73
2026-08-18	oos	0.093475	0.090659	-3.01%	0.14804	+58.37%	0.3504	✗	0.72
2026-08-17	oos	0.095765	0.092798	-3.10%	0.163815	+71.06%	0.4208	✗	0.73
2026-08-16	oos	0.10351	0.099079	-4.28%	0.13109	+26.64%	0.1027	✗	0.83
2026-08-15	oos	0.092975	0.090413	-2.76%	0.11334	+21.90%	0.0577	✗	0.84
2026-08-14	oos	0.09274	0.090185	-2.75%	0.11888	+28.19%	0.0936	✗	0.84
2026-08-13	oos	0.09498	0.092275	-2.85%	0.098475	+3.68%	0.0522	✓	0.83
2026-08-12	oos	0.09864	0.095693	-2.99%	0.09869	+0.05%	0.0434	✓	0.84
2026-08-11	oos	0.097635	0.094822	-2.88%	0.093475	-4.26%	0.0293	✓	0.84
2026-08-10	oos	0.093365	0.090928	-2.61%	0.095765	+2.57%	0.0444	✗	0.84
2026-08-09	oos	0.09707	0.094434	-2.72%	0.10351	+6.63%	0.1179	✗	0.83
2026-08-08	oos	0.09736	0.094687	-2.75%	0.092975	-4.50%	0.0062	✓	0.83
2026-08-07	oos	0.096885	0.094239	-2.73%	0.09274	-4.28%	0.0088	✓	0.83
2026-08-06	oos	0.097805	0.095077	-2.79%	0.09498	-2.89%	0.0100	✓	0.84
2026-08-05	oos	0.100875	0.097985	-2.86%	0.09864	-2.22%	0.0222	✓	0.83
2026-08-04	oos	0.10167	0.098785	-2.84%	0.097635	-3.97%	0.0049	✓	0.84
2026-08-03	oos	0.09716	0.094807	-2.42%	0.093365	-3.91%	0.0211	✓	0.83
2026-08-02	oos	0.0997	0.097278	-2.43%	0.09707	-2.64%	0.0196	✓	0.83
2026-08-01	oos	0.105755	0.102901	-2.70%	0.09736	-7.94%	0.0846	✓	0.87
2026-07-31	oos	0.116685	0.112227	-3.82%	0.096885	-16.97%	0.1754	✓	0.88
2026-07-30	oos	0.094575	0.092833	-1.84%	0.097805	+3.42%	0.0602	✗	1.14
2026-07-29	oos	0.09668	0.094873	-1.87%	0.100875	+4.34%	0.0486	✗	1.16
2026-07-28	oos	0.10316	0.100954	-2.14%	0.10167	-1.44%	0.0033	✓	1.17
2026-07-27	oos	0.105835	0.103422	-2.28%	0.09716	-8.20%	0.0582	✓	1.18
2026-07-26	oos	0.114575	0.111584	-2.61%	0.0997	-12.98%	0.0806	✓	1.12
2026-07-25	oos	0.113675	0.110681	-2.63%	0.105755	-6.97%	0.0181	✓	1.14
2026-07-24	oos	0.11498	0.111825	-2.74%	0.116685	+1.48%	0.0652	✗	1.14
2026-07-23	oos	0.119115	0.115642	-2.92%	0.094575	-20.60%	0.1954	✓	1.13
2026-07-22	oos	0.121595	0.117909	-3.03%	0.09668	-20.49%	0.1608	✓	1.12
2026-07-21	oos	0.11994	0.116252	-3.07%	0.10316	-13.99%	0.0736	✓	1.12
2026-07-20	oos	0.123715	0.119661	-3.28%	0.105835	-14.45%	0.0949	✓	1.18
2026-07-19	oos	0.12307	0.118948	-3.35%	0.114575	-6.90%	0.0495	✓	1.19
2026-07-18	oos	0.1261	0.121767	-3.44%	0.113675	-9.85%	0.0595	✓	1.19
2026-07-17	oos	0.129925	0.125338	-3.53%	0.11498	-11.50%	0.0899	✓	1.24
2026-07-16	oos	0.135285	0.130394	-3.62%	0.119115	-11.95%	0.1153	✓	1.25
2026-07-15	oos	0.145845	0.140136	-3.91%	0.121595	-16.63%	0.1672	✓	1.21
2026-07-14	oos	0.1552	0.147041	-5.26%	0.11994	-22.72%	0.2317	✓	1.20
2026-07-13	oos	0.116895	0.113028	-3.31%	0.123715	+5.83%	0.0580	✗	0.70
2026-07-12	oos	0.12333	0.119111	-3.42%	0.12307	-0.21%	0.0232	✓	0.65
2026-07-11	oos	0.12402	0.119763	-3.43%	0.1261	+1.68%	0.0412	✗	0.65
2026-07-10	oos	0.11772	0.113793	-3.34%	0.129925	+10.37%	0.1350	✗	0.66
2026-07-09	oos	0.11437	0.110704	-3.21%	0.135285	+18.29%	0.1944	✗	0.65
2026-07-08	oos	0.10905	0.105678	-3.09%	0.145845	+33.74%	0.2979	✗	0.62
2026-07-07	oos	0.11054	0.107109	-3.10%	0.1552	+40.40%	0.3550	✗	0.61
2026-07-06	oos	0.11365	0.110052	-3.17%	0.116895	+2.86%	0.0768	✗	0.60
2026-07-05	oos	0.11218	0.108681	-3.12%	0.12333	+9.94%	0.1250	✗	0.60
2026-07-04	oos	0.10767	0.104454	-2.99%	0.12402	+15.19%	0.1654	✗	0.58
2026-07-03	oos	0.11031	0.106905	-3.09%	0.11772	+6.72%	0.0808	✗	0.61
2026-07-02	oos	0.112105	0.108625	-3.10%	0.11437	+2.02%	0.0336	✗	0.66
2026-07-01	oos	0.10732	0.104035	-3.06%	0.10905	+1.61%	0.0234	✓	0.64
2026-06-30	oos	0.11361	0.109824	-3.33%	0.11054	-2.70%	0.0568	✓	0.80
2026-06-29	oos	0.10568	0.102648	-2.87%	0.11365	+7.54%	0.0453	✗	0.91
2026-06-28	oos	0.10167	0.098724	-2.90%	0.11218	+10.34%	0.0679	✗	0.90
2026-06-27	oos	0.08732	0.085402	-2.20%	0.10767	+23.31%	0.1853	✗	0.91
2026-06-26	oos	0.08296	0.08127	-2.04%	0.11031	+32.97%	0.2644	✗	1.00
2026-06-25	oos	0.08304	0.081377	-2.00%	0.112105	+35.00%	0.2910	✗	1.00
2026-06-24	oos	0.082775	0.081064	-2.07%	0.10732	+29.65%	0.2975	✗	1.00
2026-06-23	oos	0.08616	0.084219	-2.25%	0.11361	+31.86%	0.3674	✗	1.00
2026-06-22	oos	0.087275	0.085239	-2.33%	0.10568	+21.09%	0.2760	✗	1.00
2026-06-21	oos	0.090795	0.088612	-2.40%	0.10167	+11.98%	0.1988	✗	1.00
2026-06-20	oos	0.098535	0.095967	-2.61%	0.08732	-11.38%	0.0253	✓	1.00
2026-06-19	oos	0.09513	0.092691	-2.56%	0.08296	-12.79%	0.0546	✓	1.00
2026-06-18	oos	0.09407	0.091658	-2.56%	0.08304	-11.73%	0.0469	✓	1.00
2026-06-17	oos	0.09792	0.095246	-2.73%	0.082775	-15.47%	0.0851	✓	1.00
2026-06-16	oos	0.10043	0.097586	-2.83%	0.08616	-14.21%	0.0782	✓	1.00
2026-06-15	oos	0.102	0.099057	-2.89%	0.087275	-14.44%	0.0909	✓	1.00
2026-06-14	oos	0.10087	0.09795	-2.90%	0.090795	-9.99%	0.0375	✓	1.00
2026-06-13	oos	0.10077	0.097855	-2.89%	0.098535	-2.22%	0.0101	✓	1.00
2026-06-12	oos	0.10217	0.099165	-2.94%	0.09513	-6.89%	0.0405	✓	1.00
2026-06-11	oos	0.10434	0.101183	-3.03%	0.09407	-9.84%	0.0621	✓	1.00
2026-06-10	oos	0.0986	0.095912	-2.73%	0.09792	-0.69%	0.0269	✓	1.00
2026-06-09	oos	0.10506	0.102058	-2.86%	0.10043	-4.41%	0.0779	✓	1.00
2026-06-08	oos	0.11139	0.107755	-3.26%	0.102	-8.43%	0.1046	✓	1.00
2026-06-07	oos	0.10365	0.100686	-2.86%	0.10087	-2.68%	0.0354	✓	1.00
2026-06-06	oos	0.09153	0.089536	-2.18%	0.10077	+10.10%	0.0610	✗	1.00