DRV

Derive · Ethereum · gru_s3

token id: #111
symbol: DRV
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0xb1d1eae60eea9525032a6dcb4c1ce336a1de71be
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-05-28
predictions: 414

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +1d

assessed

137

of 138 predictions shown

direction hit

58.4%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0535

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0100

actual +0.0087

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.386075	0.38328	-0.72%	–	pending	–	–	1.43
2026-10-20	oos	0.398745	0.395513	-0.81%	0.386075	-3.18%	0.0200	✓	1.43
2026-10-19	oos	0.39882	0.395527	-0.83%	0.398745	-0.02%	0.0111	✓	1.43
2026-10-18	oos	0.38187	0.37918	-0.70%	0.39882	+4.44%	0.0534	✗	1.41
2026-10-17	oos	0.403015	0.399428	-0.89%	0.38187	-5.25%	0.0558	✓	1.41
2026-10-16	oos	0.387205	0.384074	-0.81%	0.403015	+4.08%	0.0502	✗	1.42
2026-10-15	oos	0.41127	0.407243	-0.98%	0.387205	-5.85%	0.0399	✓	1.39
2026-10-14	oos	0.416385	0.412416	-0.95%	0.41127	-1.23%	0.0123	✓	1.39
2026-10-13	oos	0.450845	0.44549	-1.19%	0.416385	-7.64%	0.0418	✓	1.38
2026-10-12	oos	0.4408	0.435858	-1.12%	0.450845	+2.28%	0.0107	✓	1.40
2026-10-11	oos	0.49633	0.489824	-1.31%	0.4408	-11.19%	0.0688	✓	1.57
2026-10-10	oos	0.538615	0.529606	-1.67%	0.49633	-7.85%	0.0797	✓	1.61
2026-10-09	oos	0.515775	0.504742	-2.14%	0.538615	+4.43%	0.0578	✗	1.61
2026-10-08	oos	0.436745	0.428843	-1.81%	0.515775	+18.10%	0.1683	✗	1.57
2026-10-07	oos	0.373545	0.369557	-1.07%	0.436745	+16.92%	0.1991	✗	1.67
2026-10-06	oos	0.407595	0.402434	-1.27%	0.373545	-8.35%	0.0307	✓	1.63
2026-10-05	oos	0.41208	0.406483	-1.36%	0.407595	-1.09%	0.0067	✓	1.63
2026-10-04	oos	0.41695	0.410769	-1.48%	0.41208	-1.17%	0.0176	✗	1.63
2026-10-03	oos	0.38453	0.379401	-1.33%	0.41695	+8.43%	0.0611	✗	1.61
2026-10-02	oos	0.39644	0.390813	-1.42%	0.38453	-3.00%	0.0207	✓	1.62
2026-10-01	oos	0.395175	0.388992	-1.56%	0.39644	+0.32%	0.0255	✗	1.61
2026-09-30	oos	0.38983	0.383953	-1.51%	0.395175	+1.37%	0.0043	✓	1.60
2026-09-29	oos	0.381685	0.375752	-1.55%	0.38983	+2.13%	0.0384	✗	1.59
2026-09-28	oos	0.36952	0.364249	-1.43%	0.381685	+3.29%	0.0434	✗	1.54
2026-09-27	oos	0.43524	0.426539	-2.00%	0.36952	-15.10%	0.1269	✓	1.38
2026-09-26	oos	0.412955	0.405602	-1.78%	0.43524	+5.40%	0.0698	✗	1.39
2026-09-25	oos	0.44425	0.435305	-2.01%	0.412955	-7.04%	0.0579	✓	1.34
2026-09-24	oos	0.45364	0.442806	-2.39%	0.44425	-2.07%	0.0079	✓	1.33
2026-09-23	oos	0.48606	0.469235	-3.46%	0.45364	-6.67%	0.0339	✓	1.32
2026-09-22	oos	0.436315	0.423283	-2.99%	0.48606	+11.40%	0.1680	✗	1.39
2026-09-21	oos	0.4043	0.392545	-2.91%	0.436315	+7.92%	0.1122	✗	1.42
2026-09-20	oos	0.391515	0.379754	-3.00%	0.4043	+3.27%	0.0375	✓	1.55
2026-09-19	oos	0.446505	0.423699	-5.11%	0.391515	-12.32%	0.0776	✓	1.51
2026-09-18	oos	0.29519	0.286041	-3.10%	0.446505	+51.26%	0.4385	✗	1.53
2026-09-17	oos	0.25509	0.24834	-2.65%	0.29519	+15.72%	0.0895	✗	1.45
2026-09-16	oos	0.24457	0.235521	-3.70%	0.25509	+4.30%	0.0760	✗	1.44
2026-09-15	oos	0.13705	0.136593	-0.33%	0.24457	+78.45%	0.5724	✗	1.36
2026-09-14	oos	0.140985	0.140422	-0.40%	0.13705	-2.79%	0.0222	✗	1.38
2026-09-13	oos	0.14356	0.142988	-0.40%	0.140985	-1.79%	0.0390	✓	1.40
2026-09-12	oos	0.14992	0.149254	-0.44%	0.14356	-4.24%	0.0305	✓	1.39
2026-09-11	oos	0.148505	0.14793	-0.39%	0.14992	+0.95%	0.0124	✗	1.38
2026-09-10	oos	0.147705	0.147181	-0.35%	0.148505	+0.54%	0.0030	✓	1.37
2026-09-09	oos	0.154095	0.153444	-0.42%	0.147705	-4.15%	0.0075	✓	1.36
2026-09-08	oos	0.16393	0.162965	-0.59%	0.154095	-6.00%	0.0531	✓	1.36
2026-09-07	oos	0.1575	0.156989	-0.32%	0.16393	+4.08%	0.0546	✗	1.39
2026-09-06	oos	0.16514	0.164576	-0.34%	0.1575	-4.63%	0.0221	✓	1.39
2026-09-05	oos	0.17224	0.170775	-0.85%	0.16514	-4.12%	0.0423	✓	1.38
2026-09-04	oos	0.14964	0.149629	-0.01%	0.17224	+15.10%	0.1379	✗	1.46
2026-09-03	oos	0.15856	0.158207	-0.22%	0.14964	-5.63%	0.0274	✓	1.43
2026-09-02	oos	0.14371	0.143562	-0.10%	0.15856	+10.33%	0.0240	✗	1.51
2026-09-01	oos	0.14284	0.142684	-0.11%	0.14371	+0.61%	0.0089	✗	1.51
2026-08-31	oos	0.153755	0.153267	-0.32%	0.14284	-7.10%	0.0517	✓	1.26
2026-08-30	oos	0.15632	0.155543	-0.50%	0.153755	-1.64%	0.0261	✓	1.26
2026-08-29	oos	0.1719	0.170414	-0.86%	0.15632	-9.06%	0.0784	✓	1.08
2026-08-28	oos	0.16944	0.167651	-1.06%	0.1719	+1.45%	0.0196	✗	1.08
2026-08-27	oos	0.17649	0.174006	-1.41%	0.16944	-3.99%	0.0063	✓	1.07
2026-08-26	oos	0.166915	0.164438	-1.48%	0.17649	+5.74%	0.0541	✗	1.06
2026-08-25	oos	0.14804	0.14673	-0.89%	0.166915	+12.75%	0.1223	✗	1.04
2026-08-24	oos	0.163815	0.160496	-2.03%	0.14804	-9.63%	0.0749	✓	1.03
2026-08-23	oos	0.13109	0.129984	-0.84%	0.163815	+24.96%	0.2162	✗	0.95
2026-08-22	oos	0.11334	0.112822	-0.46%	0.13109	+15.66%	0.1420	✗	0.92
2026-08-21	oos	0.11888	0.117728	-0.97%	0.11334	-4.66%	0.0232	✓	0.91
2026-08-20	oos	0.098475	0.098075	-0.41%	0.11888	+20.72%	0.1460	✗	0.66
2026-08-19	oos	0.09869	0.098023	-0.68%	0.098475	-0.22%	0.0332	✓	0.73
2026-08-18	oos	0.093475	0.09283	-0.69%	0.09869	+5.58%	0.0114	✗	0.72
2026-08-17	oos	0.095765	0.095017	-0.78%	0.093475	-2.39%	0.0187	✓	0.73
2026-08-16	oos	0.10351	0.10161	-1.84%	0.095765	-7.48%	0.0807	✓	0.83
2026-08-15	oos	0.092975	0.092409	-0.61%	0.10351	+11.33%	0.1159	✗	0.84
2026-08-14	oos	0.09274	0.092181	-0.60%	0.092975	+0.25%	0.0080	✗	0.84
2026-08-13	oos	0.09498	0.094387	-0.62%	0.09274	-2.36%	0.0117	✓	0.83
2026-08-12	oos	0.09864	0.097962	-0.69%	0.09498	-3.71%	0.0311	✓	0.84
2026-08-11	oos	0.097635	0.096946	-0.71%	0.09864	+1.03%	0.0189	✗	0.84
2026-08-10	oos	0.093365	0.092807	-0.60%	0.097635	+4.57%	0.0557	✗	0.84
2026-08-09	oos	0.09707	0.096466	-0.62%	0.093365	-3.82%	0.0206	✓	0.83
2026-08-08	oos	0.09736	0.096746	-0.63%	0.09707	-0.30%	0.0041	✓	0.83
2026-08-07	oos	0.096885	0.096283	-0.62%	0.09736	+0.49%	0.0109	✗	0.83
2026-08-06	oos	0.097805	0.097185	-0.63%	0.096885	-0.94%	0.0112	✓	0.84
2026-08-05	oos	0.100875	0.100189	-0.68%	0.097805	-3.04%	0.0197	✓	0.83
2026-08-04	oos	0.10167	0.100894	-0.76%	0.100875	-0.78%	0.0074	✓	0.84
2026-08-03	oos	0.09716	0.0966	-0.58%	0.10167	+4.64%	0.0436	✗	0.83
2026-08-02	oos	0.0997	0.099139	-0.56%	0.09716	-2.55%	0.0197	✓	0.83
2026-08-01	oos	0.105755	0.104993	-0.72%	0.0997	-5.73%	0.0619	✓	0.87
2026-07-31	oos	0.116685	0.114793	-1.62%	0.105755	-9.37%	0.0811	✓	0.88
2026-07-30	oos	0.094575	0.094196	-0.40%	0.116685	+23.38%	0.2479	✗	1.14
2026-07-29	oos	0.09668	0.096247	-0.45%	0.094575	-2.18%	0.0324	✓	1.16
2026-07-28	oos	0.10316	0.102637	-0.51%	0.09668	-6.28%	0.0607	✓	1.17
2026-07-27	oos	0.105835	0.105245	-0.56%	0.10316	-2.53%	0.0228	✓	1.18
2026-07-26	oos	0.114575	0.113803	-0.67%	0.105835	-7.63%	0.0440	✓	1.12
2026-07-25	oos	0.113675	0.11291	-0.67%	0.114575	+0.79%	0.0037	✓	1.14
2026-07-24	oos	0.11498	0.114184	-0.69%	0.113675	-1.13%	0.0082	✓	1.14
2026-07-23	oos	0.119115	0.118229	-0.74%	0.11498	-3.47%	0.0110	✓	1.13
2026-07-22	oos	0.121595	0.120657	-0.77%	0.119115	-2.04%	0.0048	✓	1.12
2026-07-21	oos	0.11994	0.119023	-0.76%	0.121595	+1.38%	0.0286	✗	1.12
2026-07-20	oos	0.123715	0.122714	-0.81%	0.11994	-3.05%	0.0463	✓	1.18
2026-07-19	oos	0.12307	0.122101	-0.79%	0.123715	+0.52%	0.0034	✓	1.19
2026-07-18	oos	0.1261	0.125073	-0.81%	0.12307	-2.40%	0.0140	✓	1.19
2026-07-17	oos	0.129925	0.128847	-0.83%	0.1261	-2.94%	0.0389	✓	1.24
2026-07-16	oos	0.135285	0.134124	-0.86%	0.129925	-3.96%	0.0342	✓	1.25
2026-07-15	oos	0.145845	0.144111	-1.19%	0.135285	-7.24%	0.0454	✓	1.21
2026-07-14	oos	0.1552	0.151394	-2.45%	0.145845	-6.03%	0.0323	✓	1.20
2026-07-13	oos	0.116895	0.116015	-0.75%	0.1552	+32.77%	0.2610	✗	0.70
2026-07-12	oos	0.12333	0.122247	-0.88%	0.116895	-5.22%	0.0296	✓	0.65
2026-07-11	oos	0.12402	0.122936	-0.87%	0.12333	-0.56%	0.0035	✓	0.65
2026-07-10	oos	0.11772	0.116569	-0.98%	0.12402	+5.35%	0.0656	✗	0.66
2026-07-09	oos	0.11437	0.113463	-0.79%	0.11772	+2.93%	0.0271	✗	0.65
2026-07-08	oos	0.10905	0.108285	-0.70%	0.11437	+4.88%	0.0454	✗	0.62
2026-07-07	oos	0.11054	0.109704	-0.76%	0.10905	-1.35%	0.0046	✓	0.61
2026-07-06	oos	0.11365	0.11275	-0.79%	0.11054	-2.74%	0.0134	✓	0.60
2026-07-05	oos	0.11218	0.111365	-0.73%	0.11365	+1.31%	0.0164	✗	0.60
2026-07-04	oos	0.10767	0.10691	-0.71%	0.11218	+4.19%	0.0435	✗	0.58
2026-07-03	oos	0.11031	0.109411	-0.82%	0.10767	-2.39%	0.0216	✓	0.61
2026-07-02	oos	0.112105	0.111242	-0.77%	0.11031	-1.60%	0.0195	✓	0.66
2026-07-01	oos	0.10732	0.106331	-0.92%	0.112105	+4.46%	0.0369	✗	0.64
2026-06-30	oos	0.11361	0.112399	-1.07%	0.10732	-5.54%	0.0657	✓	0.80
2026-06-29	oos	0.10568	0.104877	-0.76%	0.11361	+7.50%	0.1052	✗	0.91
2026-06-28	oos	0.10167	0.100729	-0.93%	0.10568	+3.94%	0.0377	✗	0.90
2026-06-27	oos	0.08732	0.086902	-0.48%	0.10167	+16.43%	0.1639	✗	0.91
2026-06-26	oos	0.08296	0.082611	-0.42%	0.08732	+5.26%	0.0566	✗	1.00
2026-06-25	oos	0.08304	0.082699	-0.41%	0.08296	-0.10%	0.0018	✓	1.00
2026-06-24	oos	0.082775	0.082423	-0.43%	0.08304	+0.32%	0.0287	✗	1.00
2026-06-23	oos	0.08616	0.085742	-0.49%	0.082775	-3.93%	0.0083	✓	1.00
2026-06-22	oos	0.087275	0.086838	-0.50%	0.08616	-1.28%	0.0128	✗	1.00
2026-06-21	oos	0.090795	0.090313	-0.53%	0.087275	-3.88%	0.0455	✓	1.00
2026-06-20	oos	0.098535	0.097945	-0.60%	0.090795	-7.86%	0.0603	✓	1.00
2026-06-19	oos	0.09513	0.094583	-0.58%	0.098535	+3.58%	0.0292	✗	1.00
2026-06-18	oos	0.09407	0.093534	-0.57%	0.09513	+1.13%	0.0075	✗	1.00
2026-06-17	oos	0.09792	0.097313	-0.62%	0.09407	-3.93%	0.0093	✓	1.00
2026-06-16	oos	0.10043	0.099751	-0.68%	0.09792	-2.50%	0.0005	✓	1.00
2026-06-15	oos	0.102	0.101326	-0.66%	0.10043	-1.54%	0.0011	✓	1.00
2026-06-14	oos	0.10087	0.100195	-0.67%	0.102	+1.12%	0.0092	✗	1.00
2026-06-13	oos	0.10077	0.100109	-0.66%	0.10087	+0.10%	0.0120	✓	1.00
2026-06-12	oos	0.10217	0.101489	-0.67%	0.10077	-1.37%	0.0210	✓	1.00
2026-06-11	oos	0.10434	0.10361	-0.70%	0.10217	-2.08%	0.0136	✓	1.00
2026-06-10	oos	0.0986	0.097992	-0.62%	0.10434	+5.82%	0.0289	✗	1.00
2026-06-09	oos	0.10506	0.104334	-0.69%	0.0986	-6.15%	0.0526	✓	1.00
2026-06-08	oos	0.11139	0.110266	-1.01%	0.10506	-5.68%	0.0263	✓	1.00
2026-06-07	oos	0.10365	0.102878	-0.74%	0.11139	+7.47%	0.0833	✗	1.00
2026-06-06	oos	0.09153	0.09106	-0.51%	0.10365	+13.24%	0.0900	✗	1.00