AVA

AVA (Travala) · Ethereum · gru_s3

token id: #60
symbol: AVA
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0xa6c0c097741d55ecd9a3a7def3a8253fd022ceb9
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-05-14
predictions: 456

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +30d

assessed

122

of 152 predictions shown

direction hit

84.4%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1607

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0165

actual +0.0054

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.3215	0.294978	-8.25%	–	pending	–	–	0.37
2026-10-20	oos	0.3432	0.313262	-8.72%	–	pending	–	–	0.37
2026-10-19	oos	0.42285	0.369518	-12.61%	–	pending	–	–	0.45
2026-10-18	oos	0.3193	0.292498	-8.39%	–	pending	–	–	0.49
2026-10-17	oos	0.3784	0.334327	-11.65%	–	pending	–	–	0.51
2026-10-16	oos	0.2935	0.271874	-7.37%	–	pending	–	–	0.54
2026-10-15	oos	0.2846	0.264779	-6.96%	–	pending	–	–	0.54
2026-10-14	oos	0.26855	0.249749	-7.00%	–	pending	–	–	0.54
2026-10-13	oos	0.2373	0.224682	-5.32%	–	pending	–	–	0.63
2026-10-12	oos	0.2321	0.21999	-5.22%	–	pending	–	–	0.62
2026-10-11	oos	0.22825	0.217128	-4.87%	–	pending	–	–	0.64
2026-10-10	oos	0.2325	0.220538	-5.14%	–	pending	–	–	0.66
2026-10-09	oos	0.2387	0.225541	-5.51%	–	pending	–	–	0.66
2026-10-08	oos	0.23205	0.218952	-5.64%	–	pending	–	–	0.66
2026-10-07	oos	0.22615	0.213313	-5.68%	–	pending	–	–	0.68
2026-10-06	oos	0.23255	0.218782	-5.92%	–	pending	–	–	0.67
2026-10-05	oos	0.24515	0.229625	-6.33%	–	pending	–	–	0.67
2026-10-04	oos	0.2621	0.244599	-6.68%	–	pending	–	–	0.67
2026-10-03	oos	0.26635	0.247036	-7.25%	–	pending	–	–	0.68
2026-10-02	oos	0.26025	0.241367	-7.26%	–	pending	–	–	0.68
2026-10-01	oos	0.25855	0.239424	-7.40%	–	pending	–	–	0.68
2026-09-30	oos	0.2456	0.227621	-7.32%	–	pending	–	–	0.68
2026-09-29	oos	0.24525	0.226491	-7.65%	–	pending	–	–	0.66
2026-09-28	oos	0.2432	0.224426	-7.72%	–	pending	–	–	0.69
2026-09-27	oos	0.2525	0.23199	-8.12%	–	pending	–	–	0.69
2026-09-26	oos	0.2456	0.22577	-8.07%	–	pending	–	–	0.69
2026-09-25	oos	0.26395	0.241478	-8.51%	–	pending	–	–	0.69
2026-09-24	oos	0.2556	0.235109	-8.02%	–	pending	–	–	0.70
2026-09-23	oos	0.253	0.233499	-7.71%	–	pending	–	–	0.70
2026-09-22	oos	0.25725	0.237561	-7.65%	–	pending	–	–	0.70
2026-09-21	oos	0.24785	0.231221	-6.71%	0.3215	+29.72%	0.3633	✗	0.73
2026-09-20	oos	0.2389	0.222097	-7.03%	0.3432	+43.66%	0.4187	✗	0.76
2026-09-19	oos	0.2257	0.21332	-5.49%	0.42285	+87.35%	0.6786	✗	0.76
2026-09-18	oos	0.2356	0.220945	-6.22%	0.3193	+35.53%	0.3574	✗	0.78
2026-09-17	oos	0.2631	0.236782	-10.00%	0.3784	+43.82%	0.4018	✗	1.05
2026-09-16	oos	0.15575	0.15913	+2.17%	0.2935	+88.44%	0.5419	✓	1.03
2026-09-15	oos	0.15935	0.162755	+2.14%	0.2846	+78.60%	0.4715	✓	1.05
2026-09-14	oos	0.16475	0.170951	+3.76%	0.26855	+63.00%	0.4078	✓	1.03
2026-09-13	oos	0.17235	0.177258	+2.85%	0.2373	+37.68%	0.2087	✓	1.05
2026-09-12	oos	0.16675	0.171504	+2.85%	0.2321	+39.19%	0.2425	✓	1.07
2026-09-11	oos	0.1533	0.160765	+4.87%	0.22825	+48.89%	0.2645	✓	1.07
2026-09-10	oos	0.14845	0.156162	+5.19%	0.2325	+56.62%	0.3133	✓	1.06
2026-09-09	oos	0.15835	0.166705	+5.28%	0.2387	+50.74%	0.3043	✓	1.03
2026-09-08	oos	0.16595	0.1736	+4.61%	0.23205	+39.83%	0.2459	✓	1.09
2026-09-07	oos	0.16025	0.168368	+5.07%	0.22615	+41.12%	0.2380	✓	1.11
2026-09-06	oos	0.1657	0.174661	+5.41%	0.23255	+40.34%	0.2166	✓	1.11
2026-09-05	oos	0.17045	0.179412	+5.26%	0.24515	+43.83%	0.2326	✓	1.11
2026-09-04	oos	0.1723	0.181012	+5.06%	0.2621	+52.12%	0.2791	✓	1.11
2026-09-03	oos	0.19615	0.200895	+2.42%	0.26635	+35.79%	0.2386	✓	1.04
2026-09-02	oos	0.1842	0.185475	+0.69%	0.26025	+41.29%	0.2442	✓	1.06
2026-09-01	oos	0.1902	0.190494	+0.15%	0.25855	+35.94%	0.2069	✓	1.07
2026-08-31	oos	0.19365	0.194967	+0.68%	0.2456	+26.83%	0.1693	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.19105	0.192079	+0.54%	0.24525	+28.37%	0.1701	✓	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.1997	0.199817	+0.06%	0.2432	+21.78%	0.1337	✓	0.97
2026-08-28	oos	0.202	0.202024	+0.01%	0.2525	+25.00%	0.1437	✓	0.97
2026-08-27	oos	0.2085	0.212391	+1.87%	0.2456	+17.79%	0.0964	✓	0.97
2026-08-26	oos	0.21075	0.214173	+1.62%	0.26395	+25.24%	0.1481	✓	0.98
2026-08-25	oos	0.2092	0.213865	+2.23%	0.2556	+22.18%	0.1074	✓	0.99
2026-08-24	oos	0.2018	0.210191	+4.16%	0.253	+25.37%	0.1198	✓	0.99
2026-08-23	oos	0.20705	0.212929	+2.84%	0.25725	+24.25%	0.0846	✓	1.01
2026-08-22	oos	0.2035	0.209894	+3.14%	0.24785	+21.79%	0.0485	✓	1.01
2026-08-21	oos	0.2049	0.21683	+5.82%	0.2389	+16.59%	0.0611	✓	1.01
2026-08-20	oos	0.191	0.192532	+0.80%	0.2257	+18.17%	0.0506	✓	1.02
2026-08-19	oos	0.1799	0.175756	-2.30%	0.2356	+30.96%	0.1361	✗	1.02
2026-08-18	oos	0.17065	0.161596	-5.31%	0.2631	+54.18%	0.3130	✗	1.05
2026-08-17	oos	0.17415	0.164504	-5.54%	0.15575	-10.57%	0.2349	✓	1.08
2026-08-16	oos	0.17405	0.162665	-6.54%	0.15935	-8.45%	0.2256	✓	1.11
2026-08-15	oos	0.17835	0.166706	-6.53%	0.16475	-7.63%	0.2506	✓	1.11
2026-08-14	oos	0.17865	0.166782	-6.64%	0.17235	-3.53%	0.1885	✓	1.12
2026-08-13	oos	0.18025	0.168684	-6.42%	0.16675	-7.49%	0.2334	✓	1.12
2026-08-12	oos	0.18485	0.172792	-6.52%	0.1533	-17.07%	0.3465	✓	1.15
2026-08-11	oos	0.19115	0.178791	-6.47%	0.14845	-22.34%	0.4007	✓	1.15
2026-08-10	oos	0.203	0.190029	-6.39%	0.15835	-22.00%	0.4150	✓	1.15
2026-08-09	oos	0.2075	0.195587	-5.74%	0.16595	-20.02%	0.3822	✓	1.14
2026-08-08	oos	0.20655	0.195155	-5.52%	0.16025	-22.42%	0.4232	✓	1.14
2026-08-07	oos	0.21025	0.198117	-5.77%	0.1657	-21.19%	0.4234	✓	1.15
2026-08-06	oos	0.1902	0.180267	-5.22%	0.17045	-10.38%	0.2960	✓	1.11
2026-08-05	oos	0.18165	0.173554	-4.46%	0.1723	-5.15%	0.2403	✓	1.11
2026-08-04	oos	0.16775	0.160119	-4.55%	0.19615	+16.93%	0.0546	✓	1.08
2026-08-03	oos	0.1717	0.162775	-5.20%	0.1842	+7.28%	0.0925	✓	1.10
2026-08-02	oos	0.1825	0.17277	-5.33%	0.1902	+4.22%	0.1218	✓	1.10
2026-08-01	oos	0.17155	0.160784	-6.28%	0.19365	+12.88%	0.0551	✓	1.07
2026-07-31	oos	0.16075	0.151479	-5.77%	0.19105	+18.85%	0.0056	✓	1.07
2026-07-30	oos	0.152	0.148086	-2.57%	0.1997	+31.38%	0.0794	✗	1.16
2026-07-29	oos	0.1501	0.144718	-3.59%	0.202	+34.58%	0.1050	✗	1.16
2026-07-28	oos	0.1533	0.149496	-2.48%	0.2085	+36.01%	0.0671	✗	1.16
2026-07-27	oos	0.15455	0.150479	-2.63%	0.21075	+36.36%	0.0863	✗	1.16
2026-07-26	oos	0.1624	0.162067	-0.21%	0.2092	+28.82%	0.0443	✗	1.15
2026-07-25	oos	0.1637	0.161846	-1.13%	0.2018	+23.27%	0.0190	✓	1.16
2026-07-24	oos	0.15435	0.153333	-0.66%	0.20705	+34.14%	0.0784	✗	1.15
2026-07-23	oos	0.15365	0.15502	+0.89%	0.2035	+32.44%	0.0754	✓	1.16
2026-07-22	oos	0.1581	0.162245	+2.62%	0.2049	+29.60%	0.0365	✓	1.16
2026-07-21	oos	0.15995	0.165536	+3.49%	0.191	+19.41%	0.0351	✓	1.16
2026-07-20	oos	0.1559	0.159284	+2.17%	0.1799	+15.39%	0.0517	✓	1.15
2026-07-19	oos	0.1539	0.156089	+1.42%	0.17065	+10.88%	0.0892	✓	1.15
2026-07-18	oos	0.15475	0.157325	+1.66%	0.17415	+12.54%	0.1073	✓	1.15
2026-07-17	oos	0.158	0.159321	+0.84%	0.17405	+10.16%	0.1080	✓	1.17
2026-07-16	oos	0.15955	0.160744	+0.75%	0.17835	+11.78%	0.1179	✓	1.17
2026-07-15	oos	0.16415	0.166982	+1.73%	0.17865	+8.83%	0.0995	✓	1.17
2026-07-14	oos	0.1618	0.165401	+2.23%	0.18025	+11.40%	0.1145	✓	1.17
2026-07-13	oos	0.1574	0.156901	-0.32%	0.18485	+17.44%	0.1418	✗	1.21
2026-07-12	oos	0.1628	0.164533	+1.06%	0.19115	+17.41%	0.1539	✓	1.21
2026-07-11	oos	0.16735	0.168624	+0.76%	0.203	+21.30%	0.1829	✓	1.21
2026-07-10	oos	0.1696	0.170677	+0.64%	0.2075	+22.35%	0.1818	✓	1.21
2026-07-09	oos	0.16805	0.167842	-0.12%	0.20655	+22.91%	0.1745	✗	1.22
2026-07-08	oos	0.1669	0.165419	-0.89%	0.21025	+25.97%	0.1886	✗	1.23
2026-07-07	oos	0.1711	0.170657	-0.26%	0.1902	+11.16%	0.0903	✗	1.23
2026-07-06	oos	0.17935	0.179072	-0.15%	0.18165	+1.28%	0.0029	✗	1.22
2026-07-05	oos	0.1803	0.179266	-0.57%	0.16775	-6.96%	0.0753	✓	1.22
2026-07-04	oos	0.18395	0.181804	-1.17%	0.1717	-6.66%	0.0646	✓	1.24
2026-07-03	oos	0.17725	0.174106	-1.77%	0.1825	+2.96%	0.0281	✗	1.22
2026-07-02	oos	0.17095	0.166931	-2.35%	0.17155	+0.35%	0.0026	✓	1.20
2026-07-01	oos	0.17475	0.16954	-2.98%	0.16075	-8.01%	0.1131	✓	1.28
2026-06-30	oos	0.16145	0.156461	-3.09%	0.152	-5.85%	0.1495	✓	1.20
2026-06-29	oos	0.1661	0.161718	-2.64%	0.1501	-9.63%	0.1472	✓	1.21
2026-06-28	oos	0.16695	0.162783	-2.50%	0.1533	-8.18%	0.1469	✓	1.22
2026-06-27	oos	0.16885	0.164454	-2.60%	0.15455	-8.47%	0.1366	✓	1.22
2026-06-26	oos	0.1731	0.168585	-2.61%	0.1624	-6.18%	0.1424	✓	1.23
2026-06-25	oos	0.17085	0.166437	-2.58%	0.1637	-4.18%	0.1074	✓	1.23
2026-06-24	oos	0.1746	0.169664	-2.83%	0.15435	-11.60%	0.1556	✓	1.23
2026-06-23	oos	0.18185	0.176374	-3.01%	0.15365	-15.51%	0.1840	✓	1.22
2026-06-22	oos	0.18755	0.18185	-3.04%	0.1581	-15.70%	0.1800	✓	1.22
2026-06-21	oos	0.1911	0.185289	-3.04%	0.15995	-16.30%	0.2105	✓	1.25
2026-06-20	oos	0.19835	0.192478	-2.96%	0.1559	-21.40%	0.2298	✓	1.24
2026-06-19	oos	0.19035	0.184736	-2.95%	0.1539	-19.15%	0.2055	✓	1.21
2026-06-18	oos	0.1941	0.189936	-2.15%	0.15475	-20.27%	0.2423	✓	1.25
2026-06-17	oos	0.2037	0.198911	-2.35%	0.158	-22.43%	0.2197	✓	1.22
2026-06-16	oos	0.1998	0.194601	-2.60%	0.15955	-20.15%	0.1627	✓	1.26
2026-06-15	oos	0.1971	0.19165	-2.77%	0.16415	-16.72%	0.1248	✓	1.26
2026-06-14	oos	0.1934	0.187687	-2.95%	0.1618	-16.34%	0.1346	✓	1.25
2026-06-13	oos	0.1904	0.184889	-2.89%	0.1574	-17.33%	0.1177	✓	1.27
2026-06-12	oos	0.191	0.186441	-2.39%	0.1628	-14.76%	0.1388	✓	1.00
2026-06-11	oos	0.19395	0.189482	-2.30%	0.16735	-13.71%	0.1275	✓	1.00
2026-06-10	oos	0.1754	0.172211	-1.82%	0.1696	-3.31%	0.0580	✓	1.00
2026-06-09	oos	0.17575	0.172306	-1.96%	0.16805	-4.38%	0.0489	✓	1.00
2026-06-08	oos	0.1836	0.179391	-2.29%	0.1669	-9.10%	0.0590	✓	1.00
2026-06-07	oos	0.1835	0.179275	-2.30%	0.1711	-6.76%	0.0470	✓	1.00
2026-06-06	oos	0.1772	0.173706	-1.97%	0.17935	+1.21%	0.0185	✓	1.00
2026-06-05	oos	0.1769	0.173171	-2.11%	0.1803	+1.92%	0.0006	✓	1.00
2026-06-04	oos	0.1918	0.186151	-2.95%	0.18395	-4.09%	0.0006	✓	1.00
2026-06-03	oos	0.2098	0.202649	-3.41%	0.17725	-15.51%	0.1099	✓	1.00
2026-06-02	oos	0.2063	0.19834	-3.86%	0.17095	-17.14%	0.0678	✓	1.00
2026-06-01	oos	0.2219	0.211335	-4.76%	0.17475	-21.25%	0.0167	✓	1.00
2026-05-31	oos	0.2223	0.211221	-4.98%	0.16145	-27.37%	0.0398	✓	1.00
2026-05-30	oos	0.21885	0.207728	-5.08%	0.1661	-24.10%	0.0197	✓	1.00
2026-05-29	oos	0.21825	0.208052	-4.67%	0.16695	-23.51%	0.0102	✓	1.00
2026-05-28	oos	0.215	0.204869	-4.71%	0.16885	-21.47%	0.0108	✓	1.00
2026-05-27	oos	0.2224	0.211842	-4.75%	0.1731	-22.17%	0.0120	✓	1.00
2026-05-26	oos	0.2274	0.216663	-4.72%	0.17085	-24.87%	0.0015	✓	1.00
2026-05-25	oos	0.2333	0.223543	-4.18%	0.1746	-25.16%	0.0107	✓	1.00
2026-05-24	oos	0.2314	0.222151	-4.00%	0.18185	-21.41%	0.0058	✓	1.00
2026-05-23	oos	0.2424	0.232868	-3.93%	0.18755	-22.63%	0.0353	✓	1.00