AVA

AVA (Travala) · Ethereum · gru_s3

token id: #60
symbol: AVA
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0xa6c0c097741d55ecd9a3a7def3a8253fd022ceb9
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-05-14
predictions: 456

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +1d

assessed

151

of 152 predictions shown

direction hit

58.9%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0358

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0041

actual +0.0013

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.3215	0.319225	-0.71%	–	pending	–	–	0.37
2026-10-20	oos	0.3432	0.340348	-0.83%	0.3215	-6.32%	0.0559	✓	0.37
2026-10-19	oos	0.42285	0.412187	-2.52%	0.3432	-18.84%	0.1892	✓	0.45
2026-10-18	oos	0.3193	0.315769	-1.11%	0.42285	+32.43%	0.2930	✗	0.49
2026-10-17	oos	0.3784	0.369279	-2.41%	0.3193	-15.62%	0.1494	✓	0.51
2026-10-16	oos	0.2935	0.291103	-0.82%	0.3784	+28.93%	0.2631	✗	0.54
2026-10-15	oos	0.2846	0.282171	-0.85%	0.2935	+3.13%	0.0435	✗	0.54
2026-10-14	oos	0.26855	0.265183	-1.25%	0.2846	+5.98%	0.0670	✗	0.54
2026-10-13	oos	0.2373	0.235588	-0.72%	0.26855	+13.17%	0.1426	✗	0.63
2026-10-12	oos	0.2321	0.231067	-0.45%	0.2373	+2.24%	0.0164	✗	0.62
2026-10-11	oos	0.22825	0.227369	-0.39%	0.2321	+1.69%	0.0356	✗	0.64
2026-10-10	oos	0.2325	0.231541	-0.41%	0.22825	-1.83%	0.0204	✓	0.66
2026-10-09	oos	0.2387	0.237611	-0.46%	0.2325	-2.60%	0.0247	✓	0.66
2026-10-08	oos	0.23205	0.230982	-0.46%	0.2387	+2.87%	0.0260	✗	0.66
2026-10-07	oos	0.22615	0.225115	-0.46%	0.23205	+2.61%	0.0435	✗	0.68
2026-10-06	oos	0.23255	0.231409	-0.49%	0.22615	-2.75%	0.0049	✓	0.67
2026-10-05	oos	0.24515	0.243879	-0.52%	0.23255	-5.14%	0.0459	✓	0.67
2026-10-04	oos	0.2621	0.260588	-0.58%	0.24515	-6.47%	0.0552	✓	0.67
2026-10-03	oos	0.26635	0.264495	-0.70%	0.2621	-1.60%	0.0232	✓	0.68
2026-10-02	oos	0.26025	0.258489	-0.68%	0.26635	+2.34%	0.0281	✗	0.68
2026-10-01	oos	0.25855	0.256834	-0.66%	0.26025	+0.66%	0.0160	✗	0.68
2026-09-30	oos	0.2456	0.243988	-0.66%	0.25855	+5.27%	0.0475	✗	0.68
2026-09-29	oos	0.24525	0.243412	-0.75%	0.2456	+0.14%	0.0096	✗	0.66
2026-09-28	oos	0.2432	0.24151	-0.69%	0.24525	+0.84%	0.0139	✗	0.69
2026-09-27	oos	0.2525	0.250601	-0.75%	0.2432	-3.68%	0.0218	✓	0.69
2026-09-26	oos	0.2456	0.243779	-0.74%	0.2525	+2.81%	0.0348	✗	0.69
2026-09-25	oos	0.26395	0.261679	-0.86%	0.2456	-6.95%	0.0661	✓	0.69
2026-09-24	oos	0.2556	0.253468	-0.83%	0.26395	+3.27%	0.0429	✗	0.70
2026-09-23	oos	0.253	0.25077	-0.88%	0.2556	+1.03%	0.0190	✗	0.70
2026-09-22	oos	0.25725	0.254275	-1.16%	0.253	-1.65%	0.0100	✓	0.70
2026-09-21	oos	0.24785	0.245747	-0.85%	0.25725	+3.79%	0.0491	✗	0.73
2026-09-20	oos	0.2389	0.235991	-1.22%	0.24785	+3.75%	0.0003	✓	0.76
2026-09-19	oos	0.2257	0.22395	-0.78%	0.2389	+5.85%	0.0653	✗	0.76
2026-09-18	oos	0.2356	0.23249	-1.32%	0.2257	-4.20%	0.0331	✓	0.78
2026-09-17	oos	0.2631	0.254062	-3.44%	0.2356	-10.45%	0.1359	✓	1.05
2026-09-16	oos	0.15575	0.155869	+0.08%	0.2631	+68.92%	0.5208	✓	1.03
2026-09-15	oos	0.15935	0.159474	+0.08%	0.15575	-2.26%	0.0314	✗	1.05
2026-09-14	oos	0.16475	0.164863	+0.07%	0.15935	-3.28%	0.0008	✓	1.03
2026-09-13	oos	0.17235	0.171521	-0.48%	0.16475	-4.41%	0.0590	✓	1.05
2026-09-12	oos	0.16675	0.16701	+0.16%	0.17235	+3.36%	0.0379	✓	1.07
2026-09-11	oos	0.1533	0.153925	+0.41%	0.16675	+8.77%	0.0793	✓	1.07
2026-09-10	oos	0.14845	0.149185	+0.50%	0.1533	+3.27%	0.0180	✓	1.06
2026-09-09	oos	0.15835	0.159044	+0.44%	0.14845	-6.25%	0.0456	✗	1.03
2026-09-08	oos	0.16595	0.166455	+0.30%	0.15835	-4.58%	0.0476	✗	1.09
2026-09-07	oos	0.16025	0.160953	+0.44%	0.16595	+3.56%	0.0396	✓	1.11
2026-09-06	oos	0.1657	0.166394	+0.42%	0.16025	-3.29%	0.0202	✗	1.11
2026-09-05	oos	0.17045	0.171013	+0.33%	0.1657	-2.79%	0.0386	✗	1.11
2026-09-04	oos	0.1723	0.172684	+0.22%	0.17045	-1.07%	0.0152	✗	1.11
2026-09-03	oos	0.19615	0.196124	-0.01%	0.1723	-12.16%	0.1091	✓	1.04
2026-09-02	oos	0.1842	0.184017	-0.10%	0.19615	+6.49%	0.0109	✗	1.06
2026-09-01	oos	0.1902	0.189872	-0.17%	0.1842	-3.15%	0.0291	✓	1.07
2026-08-31	oos	0.19365	0.193306	-0.18%	0.1902	-1.78%	0.0013	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.19105	0.190683	-0.19%	0.19365	+1.36%	0.0039	✗	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.1997	0.199219	-0.24%	0.19105	-4.33%	0.0348	✓	0.97
2026-08-28	oos	0.202	0.201489	-0.25%	0.1997	-1.14%	0.0138	✓	0.97
2026-08-27	oos	0.2085	0.20807	-0.21%	0.202	-3.12%	0.0003	✓	0.97
2026-08-26	oos	0.21075	0.210227	-0.25%	0.2085	-1.07%	0.0236	✓	0.98
2026-08-25	oos	0.2092	0.208617	-0.28%	0.21075	+0.74%	0.0039	✗	0.99
2026-08-24	oos	0.2018	0.201516	-0.14%	0.2092	+3.67%	0.0432	✗	0.99
2026-08-23	oos	0.20705	0.206556	-0.24%	0.2018	-2.54%	0.0394	✓	1.01
2026-08-22	oos	0.2035	0.203081	-0.21%	0.20705	+1.74%	0.0106	✗	1.01
2026-08-21	oos	0.2049	0.204432	-0.23%	0.2035	-0.68%	0.0119	✗	1.01
2026-08-20	oos	0.191	0.190296	-0.37%	0.2049	+7.28%	0.0026	✓	1.02
2026-08-19	oos	0.1799	0.17924	-0.37%	0.191	+6.17%	0.0105	✗	1.02
2026-08-18	oos	0.17065	0.169855	-0.47%	0.1799	+5.42%	0.0151	✓	1.05
2026-08-17	oos	0.17415	0.173299	-0.49%	0.17065	-2.01%	0.0188	✓	1.08
2026-08-16	oos	0.17405	0.17312	-0.53%	0.17415	+0.06%	0.0227	✓	1.11
2026-08-15	oos	0.17835	0.177376	-0.55%	0.17405	-2.41%	0.0157	✓	1.11
2026-08-14	oos	0.17865	0.177647	-0.56%	0.17835	-0.17%	0.0032	✓	1.12
2026-08-13	oos	0.18025	0.179295	-0.53%	0.17865	-0.89%	0.0044	✓	1.12
2026-08-12	oos	0.18485	0.183866	-0.53%	0.18025	-2.49%	0.0201	✓	1.15
2026-08-11	oos	0.19115	0.190126	-0.54%	0.18485	-3.30%	0.0260	✓	1.15
2026-08-10	oos	0.203	0.201815	-0.58%	0.19115	-5.84%	0.0475	✓	1.15
2026-08-09	oos	0.2075	0.20628	-0.59%	0.203	-2.17%	0.0006	✓	1.14
2026-08-08	oos	0.20655	0.20531	-0.60%	0.2075	+0.46%	0.0117	✗	1.14
2026-08-07	oos	0.21025	0.208449	-0.86%	0.20655	-1.76%	0.0095	✓	1.15
2026-08-06	oos	0.1902	0.188983	-0.64%	0.21025	+10.54%	0.0959	✗	1.11
2026-08-05	oos	0.18165	0.180619	-0.57%	0.1902	+4.71%	0.0575	✗	1.11
2026-08-04	oos	0.16775	0.167028	-0.43%	0.18165	+8.29%	0.0746	✗	1.08
2026-08-03	oos	0.1717	0.170635	-0.62%	0.16775	-2.30%	0.0271	✓	1.10
2026-08-02	oos	0.1825	0.181325	-0.64%	0.1717	-5.92%	0.0540	✓	1.10
2026-08-01	oos	0.17155	0.169904	-0.96%	0.1825	+6.38%	0.0590	✗	1.07
2026-07-31	oos	0.16075	0.159856	-0.56%	0.17155	+6.72%	0.0717	✗	1.07
2026-07-30	oos	0.152	0.151521	-0.31%	0.16075	+5.76%	0.0936	✗	1.16
2026-07-29	oos	0.1501	0.149588	-0.34%	0.152	+1.27%	0.0011	✓	1.16
2026-07-28	oos	0.1533	0.152853	-0.29%	0.1501	-2.09%	0.0191	✓	1.16
2026-07-27	oos	0.15455	0.154071	-0.31%	0.1533	-0.81%	0.0078	✓	1.16
2026-07-26	oos	0.1624	0.162016	-0.24%	0.15455	-4.83%	0.0179	✓	1.15
2026-07-25	oos	0.1637	0.163183	-0.32%	0.1624	-0.79%	0.0236	✓	1.16
2026-07-24	oos	0.15435	0.153964	-0.25%	0.1637	+6.06%	0.0575	✗	1.15
2026-07-23	oos	0.15365	0.153417	-0.15%	0.15435	+0.46%	0.0235	✗	1.16
2026-07-22	oos	0.1581	0.157938	-0.10%	0.15365	-2.81%	0.0092	✓	1.16
2026-07-21	oos	0.15995	0.159817	-0.08%	0.1581	-1.16%	0.0033	✓	1.16
2026-07-20	oos	0.1559	0.155699	-0.13%	0.15995	+2.60%	0.0041	✗	1.15
2026-07-19	oos	0.1539	0.153704	-0.13%	0.1559	+1.30%	0.0048	✗	1.15
2026-07-18	oos	0.15475	0.154571	-0.12%	0.1539	-0.55%	0.0023	✓	1.15
2026-07-17	oos	0.158	0.157749	-0.16%	0.15475	-2.06%	0.0356	✓	1.17
2026-07-16	oos	0.15955	0.159283	-0.17%	0.158	-0.97%	0.0104	✓	1.17
2026-07-15	oos	0.16415	0.163913	-0.14%	0.15955	-2.80%	0.0097	✓	1.17
2026-07-14	oos	0.1618	0.161612	-0.12%	0.16415	+1.45%	0.0205	✗	1.17
2026-07-13	oos	0.1574	0.157084	-0.20%	0.1618	+2.80%	0.0223	✓	1.21
2026-07-12	oos	0.1628	0.162534	-0.16%	0.1574	-3.32%	0.0038	✓	1.21
2026-07-11	oos	0.16735	0.167029	-0.19%	0.1628	-2.72%	0.0250	✓	1.21
2026-07-10	oos	0.1696	0.169259	-0.20%	0.16735	-1.33%	0.0046	✓	1.21
2026-07-09	oos	0.16805	0.167666	-0.23%	0.1696	+0.92%	0.0068	✓	1.22
2026-07-08	oos	0.1669	0.16648	-0.25%	0.16805	+0.69%	0.0089	✓	1.23
2026-07-07	oos	0.1711	0.170695	-0.24%	0.1669	-2.45%	0.0013	✓	1.23
2026-07-06	oos	0.17935	0.178884	-0.26%	0.1711	-4.60%	0.0315	✓	1.22
2026-07-05	oos	0.1803	0.179772	-0.29%	0.17935	-0.53%	0.0104	✓	1.22
2026-07-04	oos	0.18395	0.183295	-0.36%	0.1803	-1.98%	0.0262	✓	1.24
2026-07-03	oos	0.17725	0.176619	-0.36%	0.18395	+3.78%	0.0297	✗	1.22
2026-07-02	oos	0.17095	0.170334	-0.36%	0.17725	+3.69%	0.0197	✗	1.20
2026-07-01	oos	0.17475	0.174067	-0.39%	0.17095	-2.17%	0.0502	✓	1.28
2026-06-30	oos	0.16145	0.161075	-0.23%	0.17475	+8.24%	0.0524	✗	1.20
2026-06-29	oos	0.1661	0.16564	-0.28%	0.16145	-2.80%	0.0077	✗	1.21
2026-06-28	oos	0.16695	0.166569	-0.23%	0.1661	-0.51%	0.0169	✓	1.22
2026-06-27	oos	0.16885	0.168456	-0.23%	0.16695	-1.13%	0.0005	✓	1.22
2026-06-26	oos	0.1731	0.172678	-0.24%	0.16885	-2.46%	0.0210	✓	1.23
2026-06-25	oos	0.17085	0.170548	-0.18%	0.1731	+1.32%	0.0087	✗	1.23
2026-06-24	oos	0.1746	0.174177	-0.24%	0.17085	-2.15%	0.0068	✗	1.23
2026-06-23	oos	0.18185	0.181268	-0.32%	0.1746	-3.99%	0.0046	✓	1.22
2026-06-22	oos	0.18755	0.186866	-0.36%	0.18185	-3.04%	0.0020	✓	1.22
2026-06-21	oos	0.1911	0.190463	-0.33%	0.18755	-1.86%	0.0295	✓	1.25
2026-06-20	oos	0.19835	0.19759	-0.38%	0.1911	-3.66%	0.0141	✓	1.24
2026-06-19	oos	0.19035	0.189833	-0.27%	0.19835	+4.20%	0.0297	✗	1.21
2026-06-18	oos	0.1941	0.193305	-0.41%	0.19035	-1.93%	0.0272	✓	1.25
2026-06-17	oos	0.2037	0.202601	-0.54%	0.1941	-4.71%	0.0127	✓	1.22
2026-06-16	oos	0.1998	0.198831	-0.49%	0.2037	+1.95%	0.0468	✗	1.26
2026-06-15	oos	0.1971	0.196168	-0.47%	0.1998	+1.37%	0.0310	✗	1.26
2026-06-14	oos	0.1934	0.192643	-0.39%	0.1971	+1.91%	0.0120	✗	1.25
2026-06-13	oos	0.1904	0.189896	-0.26%	0.1934	+1.58%	0.0066	✓	1.27
2026-06-12	oos	0.191	0.190468	-0.28%	0.1904	-0.31%	0.0143	✓	1.00
2026-06-11	oos	0.19395	0.19323	-0.37%	0.191	-1.52%	0.0112	✓	1.00
2026-06-10	oos	0.1754	0.175356	-0.03%	0.19395	+10.58%	0.0669	✗	1.00
2026-06-09	oos	0.17575	0.175811	+0.03%	0.1754	-0.20%	0.0015	✓	1.00
2026-06-08	oos	0.1836	0.183449	-0.08%	0.17575	-4.28%	0.0208	✓	1.00
2026-06-07	oos	0.1835	0.183261	-0.13%	0.1836	+0.05%	0.0056	✗	1.00
2026-06-06	oos	0.1772	0.177521	+0.18%	0.1835	+3.56%	0.0064	✗	1.00
2026-06-05	oos	0.1769	0.177277	+0.21%	0.1772	+0.17%	0.0025	✓	1.00
2026-06-04	oos	0.1918	0.191758	-0.02%	0.1769	-7.77%	0.0362	✓	1.00
2026-06-03	oos	0.2098	0.209677	-0.06%	0.1918	-8.58%	0.0855	✓	1.00
2026-06-02	oos	0.2063	0.205742	-0.27%	0.2098	+1.70%	0.0596	✗	1.00
2026-06-01	oos	0.2219	0.220933	-0.44%	0.2063	-7.03%	0.0010	✓	1.00
2026-05-31	oos	0.2223	0.221197	-0.50%	0.2219	-0.18%	0.0344	✗	1.00
2026-05-30	oos	0.21885	0.21802	-0.38%	0.2223	+1.58%	0.0221	✗	1.00
2026-05-29	oos	0.21825	0.217474	-0.36%	0.21885	+0.27%	0.0008	✓	1.00
2026-05-28	oos	0.215	0.214312	-0.32%	0.21825	+1.51%	0.0202	✗	1.00
2026-05-27	oos	0.2224	0.221352	-0.47%	0.215	-3.33%	0.0182	✓	1.00
2026-05-26	oos	0.2274	0.226568	-0.37%	0.2224	-2.20%	0.0015	✓	1.00
2026-05-25	oos	0.2333	0.232446	-0.37%	0.2274	-2.53%	0.0034	✓	1.00
2026-05-24	oos	0.2314	0.230548	-0.37%	0.2333	+0.82%	0.0083	✗	1.00
2026-05-23	oos	0.2424	0.241407	-0.41%	0.2314	-4.54%	0.0466	✓	1.00