ASTEROID1

? · · gru_s3

token id: #794
symbol: ASTEROID1
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-04-25
predictions: 516

Track record at +7d

assessed

165

of 172 predictions shown

direction hit

60.6%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.2427

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0232

actual -0.0908

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.001541	0.001503	-2.49%	–	pending	–	–	1.90
2026-10-21	oos	0.001549	0.001511	-2.45%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-20	oos	0.001259	0.001239	-1.56%	–	pending	–	–	1.54
2026-10-19	oos	0.001263	0.001243	-1.58%	–	pending	–	–	1.57
2026-10-18	oos	0.001148	0.001135	-1.16%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-17	oos	0.001229	0.001212	-1.42%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-16	oos	0.001277	0.001258	-1.48%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-15	oos	0.001258	0.001242	-1.26%	0.001541	+22.50%	0.1728	✗	1.70
2026-10-14	oos	0.001084	0.001081	-0.21%	0.001549	+42.96%	0.3097	✗	1.68
2026-10-13	oos	0.001144	0.001139	-0.43%	0.001259	+10.01%	0.1030	✗	1.65
2026-10-12	oos	0.001126	0.001124	-0.19%	0.001263	+12.12%	0.1143	✗	1.67
2026-10-11	oos	0.001367	0.001356	-0.75%	0.001148	-15.95%	0.1339	✓	1.60
2026-10-10	oos	0.001357	0.001347	-0.77%	0.001229	-9.40%	0.0597	✓	1.67
2026-10-09	oos	0.00123	0.001225	-0.37%	0.001277	+3.78%	0.0622	✗	1.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.001355	0.001342	-0.89%	0.001258	-7.12%	0.0737	✓	1.67
2026-10-07	oos	0.001445	0.001431	-1.02%	0.001084	-25.04%	0.2437	✓	1.65
2026-10-06	oos	0.001564	0.001548	-1.05%	0.001144	-26.85%	0.2546	✓	1.65
2026-10-05	oos	0.001631	0.00161	-1.33%	0.001126	-30.95%	0.2758	✓	1.70
2026-10-04	oos	0.001638	0.001617	-1.26%	0.001367	-16.55%	0.1093	✓	1.77
2026-10-03	oos	0.001698	0.001666	-1.90%	0.001357	-20.08%	0.1657	✓	1.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.001759	0.001721	-2.17%	0.00123	-30.07%	0.2938	✓	1.79
2026-10-01	oos	0.001888	0.00184	-2.52%	0.001355	-28.26%	0.2403	✓	1.75
2026-09-30	oos	0.001874	0.001823	-2.72%	0.001445	-22.87%	0.2259	✓	1.81
2026-09-29	oos	0.001798	0.001754	-2.45%	0.001564	-13.01%	0.1528	✓	1.70
2026-09-28	oos	0.001702	0.001665	-2.16%	0.001631	-4.14%	0.0661	✓	1.68
2026-09-27	oos	0.001905	0.001858	-2.47%	0.001638	-14.04%	0.1687	✓	1.77
2026-09-26	oos	0.001983	0.001932	-2.56%	0.001698	-14.37%	0.1360	✓	1.76
2026-09-25	oos	0.002018	0.001966	-2.56%	0.001759	-12.83%	0.1201	✓	1.78
2026-09-24	oos	0.002258	0.002191	-2.98%	0.001888	-16.39%	0.1584	✓	1.76
2026-09-23	oos	0.001934	0.001896	-1.97%	0.001874	-3.10%	0.0058	✓	1.78
2026-09-22	oos	0.002158	0.002111	-2.18%	0.001798	-16.70%	0.1069	✓	1.79
2026-09-21	oos	0.001744	0.00173	-0.78%	0.001702	-2.41%	0.0509	✗	1.83
2026-09-20	oos	0.0015	0.001513	+0.88%	0.001905	+27.00%	0.1582	✓	1.81
2026-09-19	oos	0.001787	0.00178	-0.41%	0.001983	+10.97%	0.0399	✗	1.78
2026-09-18	oos	0.001831	0.001828	-0.14%	0.002018	+10.21%	0.0278	✗	1.82
2026-09-17	oos	0.001605	0.001635	+1.89%	0.002258	+40.69%	0.1491	✓	1.73
2026-09-16	oos	0.001692	0.00172	+1.67%	0.001934	+14.30%	0.0570	✗	1.70
2026-09-15	oos	0.001676	0.001708	+1.93%	0.002158	+28.79%	0.0311	✓	1.54
2026-09-14	oos	0.001803	0.001832	+1.65%	0.001744	-3.25%	0.2007	✗	1.48
2026-09-13	oos	0.001903	0.001922	+1.01%	0.0015	-21.18%	0.3322	✗	1.52
2026-09-12	oos	0.001828	0.001852	+1.34%	0.001787	-2.24%	0.1143	✗	1.56
2026-09-11	oos	0.001956	0.001967	+0.57%	0.001831	-6.39%	0.1435	✗	1.55
2026-09-10	oos	0.002041	0.002039	-0.06%	0.001605	-21.34%	0.2356	✓	1.58
2026-09-09	oos	0.002186	0.002174	-0.57%	0.001692	-22.60%	0.2068	✓	1.58
2026-09-08	oos	0.00224	0.002221	-0.85%	0.001676	-25.16%	0.2106	✓	1.90
2026-09-07	oos	0.002308	0.002283	-1.09%	0.001803	-21.90%	0.2143	✓	1.88
2026-09-06	oos	0.002546	0.002504	-1.66%	0.001903	-25.26%	0.1855	✓	1.97
2026-09-05	oos	0.002485	0.002443	-1.66%	0.001828	-26.42%	0.2272	✓	1.92
2026-09-04	oos	0.003024	0.002943	-2.70%	0.001956	-35.33%	0.3483	✓	1.91
2026-09-03	oos	0.003109	0.003026	-2.67%	0.002041	-34.38%	0.2782	✓	1.94
2026-09-02	oos	0.002326	0.002278	-2.05%	0.002186	-6.02%	0.0644	✓	1.84
2026-09-01	oos	0.002382	0.002328	-2.27%	0.00224	-5.98%	0.0637	✓	1.85
2026-08-31	oos	0.002634	0.002571	-2.38%	0.002308	-12.38%	0.1196	✓	1.74
2026-08-30	oos	0.002947	0.002858	-3.02%	0.002546	-13.61%	0.1731	✓	1.70
2026-08-29	oos	0.002557	0.002495	-2.42%	0.002485	-2.84%	0.0396	✓	1.75
2026-08-28	oos	0.002101	0.002053	-2.27%	0.003024	+43.96%	0.3468	✗	1.74
2026-08-27	oos	0.002319	0.002271	-2.07%	0.003109	+34.09%	0.2935	✗	1.70
2026-08-26	oos	0.002166	0.002109	-2.63%	0.002326	+7.39%	0.1347	✗	1.68
2026-08-25	oos	0.001937	0.001852	-4.38%	0.002382	+22.97%	0.2760	✗	1.69
2026-08-24	oos	0.00227	0.00219	-3.51%	0.002634	+16.04%	0.1923	✗	1.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.00236	0.002273	-3.67%	0.002947	+24.87%	0.2608	✗	1.55
2026-08-22	oos	0.00264	0.002546	-3.55%	0.002557	-3.14%	0.0200	✓	1.59
2026-08-21	oos	0.002582	0.002496	-3.35%	0.002101	-18.63%	0.1621	✓	1.61
2026-08-20	oos	0.003052	0.002914	-4.54%	0.002319	-24.02%	0.4353	✓	2.18
2026-08-19	oos	0.002289	0.002201	-3.85%	0.002166	-5.37%	0.2519	✓	1.80
2026-08-18	oos	0.00195	0.00187	-4.10%	0.001937	-0.67%	0.2936	✓	1.69
2026-08-17	oos	0.001986	0.001901	-4.29%	0.00227	+14.30%	0.1587	✓	1.66
2026-08-16	oos	0.001873	0.001789	-4.48%	0.00236	+26.00%	0.0709	✓	1.64
2026-08-15	oos	0.001955	0.001864	-4.64%	0.00264	+35.04%	0.0184	✓	1.64
2026-08-14	oos	0.002087	0.001986	-4.83%	0.002582	+23.72%	0.0973	✓	1.65
2026-08-13	oos	0.00194	0.001849	-4.70%	0.003052	+57.32%	0.2682	✗	1.66
2026-08-12	oos	0.002211	0.002099	-5.05%	0.002289	+3.53%	0.0639	✓	1.69
2026-08-11	oos	0.002031	0.001934	-4.77%	0.00195	-3.99%	0.0220	✓	1.68
2026-08-10	oos	0.001751	0.001675	-4.36%	0.001986	+13.42%	0.1555	✗	1.71
2026-08-09	oos	0.001717	0.001642	-4.37%	0.001873	+9.09%	0.1847	✗	1.69
2026-08-08	oos	0.001589	0.001518	-4.49%	0.001955	+23.03%	0.3023	✗	1.66
2026-08-07	oos	0.001601	0.001525	-4.76%	0.002087	+30.36%	0.3591	✗	1.51
2026-08-06	oos	0.002119	0.002011	-5.09%	0.00194	-8.45%	0.0147	✓	1.61
2026-08-05	oos	0.001998	0.0019	-4.93%	0.002211	+10.66%	0.1812	✗	1.58
2026-08-04	oos	0.002382	0.002238	-6.05%	0.002031	-14.74%	0.0847	✓	1.51
2026-08-03	oos	0.001356	0.00129	-4.86%	0.001751	+29.13%	0.2956	✗	1.41
2026-08-02	oos	0.001354	0.001281	-5.38%	0.001717	+26.81%	0.2631	✗	1.41
2026-08-01	oos	0.001573	0.00149	-5.27%	0.001589	+1.02%	0.0122	✓	1.55
2026-07-31	oos	0.001676	0.001587	-5.29%	0.001601	-4.47%	0.0415	✓	1.55
2026-07-30	oos	0.001696	0.001609	-5.11%	0.002119	+24.94%	0.2856	✗	1.48
2026-07-29	oos	0.001747	0.001654	-5.31%	0.001998	+14.37%	0.1723	✗	1.50
2026-07-28	oos	0.001803	0.001707	-5.34%	0.002382	+32.11%	0.3288	✗	1.45
2026-07-27	oos	0.002076	0.001962	-5.50%	0.001356	-34.68%	0.3642	✓	1.44
2026-07-26	oos	0.002034	0.001929	-5.18%	0.001354	-33.43%	0.3112	✓	1.49
2026-07-25	oos	0.002304	0.002165	-6.01%	0.001573	-31.73%	0.2816	✓	1.58
2026-07-24	oos	0.002315	0.00216	-6.68%	0.001676	-27.60%	0.2262	✓	1.40
2026-07-23	oos	0.001482	0.001414	-4.62%	0.001696	+14.44%	0.1904	✗	1.61
2026-07-22	oos	0.00136	0.0013	-4.39%	0.001747	+28.46%	0.3515	✗	1.67
2026-07-21	oos	0.001551	0.001481	-4.53%	0.001803	+16.25%	0.2646	✗	1.65
2026-07-20	oos	0.001198	0.001152	-3.86%	0.002076	+73.29%	0.6238	✗	1.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.001223	0.001176	-3.83%	0.002034	+66.31%	0.5328	✗	1.47
2026-07-18	oos	0.001349	0.001294	-4.06%	0.002304	+70.79%	0.5882	✗	1.47
2026-07-17	oos	0.001424	0.001365	-4.16%	0.002315	+62.57%	0.5240	✗	1.51
2026-07-16	oos	0.001041	0.001025	-1.54%	0.001482	+42.36%	0.3397	✗	1.46
2026-07-15	oos	0.001046	0.001031	-1.41%	0.00136	+30.02%	0.2458	✗	1.47
2026-07-14	oos	0.001158	0.001135	-1.99%	0.001551	+33.94%	0.2781	✗	1.47
2026-07-13	oos	0.001046	0.001045	-0.05%	0.001198	+14.53%	0.0732	✗	1.36
2026-07-12	oos	0.001205	0.00119	-1.21%	0.001223	+1.49%	0.0080	✓	1.29
2026-07-11	oos	0.001323	0.001303	-1.48%	0.001349	+1.97%	0.0137	✓	1.30
2026-07-10	oos	0.001144	0.001148	+0.35%	0.001424	+24.48%	0.2203	✓	1.32
2026-07-09	oos	0.001093	0.00111	+1.52%	0.001041	-4.76%	0.0759	✗	1.28
2026-07-08	oos	0.001003	0.001029	+2.57%	0.001046	+4.29%	0.0310	✗	1.22
2026-07-07	oos	0.001139	0.00116	+1.83%	0.001158	+1.67%	0.0320	✗	1.17
2026-07-06	oos	0.001392	0.0014	+0.55%	0.001046	-24.86%	0.2605	✗	1.12
2026-07-05	oos	0.001462	0.001471	+0.62%	0.001205	-17.58%	0.2023	✗	1.13
2026-07-04	oos	0.001537	0.001546	+0.61%	0.001323	-13.92%	0.1685	✗	1.15
2026-07-03	oos	0.001855	0.001849	-0.33%	0.001144	-38.33%	0.5115	✓	1.24
2026-07-02	oos	0.001555	0.001575	+1.28%	0.001093	-29.71%	0.3949	✗	1.09
2026-07-01	oos	0.001815	0.001823	+0.41%	0.001003	-44.74%	0.6453	✗	1.29
2026-06-30	oos	0.001818	0.001832	+0.76%	0.001139	-37.35%	0.5783	✗	1.31
2026-06-29	oos	0.002226	0.002211	-0.65%	0.001392	-37.47%	0.5339	✓	1.15
2026-06-28	oos	0.002274	0.00226	-0.64%	0.001462	-35.71%	0.5130	✓	1.16
2026-06-27	oos	0.002491	0.002467	-0.95%	0.001537	-38.30%	0.5323	✓	1.15
2026-06-26	oos	0.002527	0.002501	-1.02%	0.001855	-26.59%	0.3461	✓	1.15
2026-06-25	oos	0.002311	0.002294	-0.74%	0.001555	-32.71%	0.4213	✓	1.11
2026-06-24	oos	0.002585	0.002549	-1.39%	0.001815	-29.79%	0.3219	✓	1.05
2026-06-23	oos	0.002713	0.002664	-1.80%	0.001818	-32.99%	0.3110	✓	1.05
2026-06-22	oos	0.003108	0.003038	-2.25%	0.002226	-28.38%	0.2522	✓	0.96
2026-06-21	oos	0.003271	0.003192	-2.43%	0.002274	-30.48%	0.2778	✓	1.00
2026-06-20	oos	0.003663	0.003558	-2.88%	0.002491	-32.00%	0.2909	✓	0.95
2026-06-19	oos	0.003814	0.003702	-2.95%	0.002527	-33.74%	0.3267	✓	0.98
2026-06-18	oos	0.004509	0.004346	-3.61%	0.002311	-48.75%	0.5753	✓	1.09
2026-06-17	oos	0.003947	0.003828	-3.02%	0.002585	-34.51%	0.3223	✓	1.27
2026-06-16	oos	0.003759	0.00365	-2.91%	0.002713	-27.83%	0.2347	✓	1.34
2026-06-15	oos	0.003974	0.003849	-3.16%	0.003108	-21.79%	0.1664	✓	1.33
2026-06-14	oos	0.003552	0.00346	-2.60%	0.003271	-7.91%	0.0080	✓	1.25
2026-06-13	oos	0.003566	0.00348	-2.42%	0.003663	+2.72%	0.0555	✗	1.27
2026-06-12	oos	0.003336	0.003272	-1.92%	0.003814	+14.33%	0.1545	✗	1.21
2026-06-11	oos	0.004303	0.004162	-3.28%	0.004509	+4.79%	0.0938	✗	1.26
2026-06-10	oos	0.002921	0.00291	-0.37%	0.003947	+35.12%	0.2844	✗	0.43
2026-06-09	oos	0.002752	0.00276	+0.30%	0.003759	+36.62%	0.2831	✓	0.42
2026-06-08	oos	0.0034	0.003358	-1.24%	0.003974	+16.88%	0.1571	✗	0.23
2026-06-07	oos	0.002709	0.00273	+0.78%	0.003552	+31.12%	0.2551	✓	0.21
2026-06-06	oos	0.002536	0.002584	+1.88%	0.003566	+40.62%	0.3252	✓	-0.05
2026-06-05	oos	0.00276	0.002793	+1.20%	0.003336	+20.87%	0.1793	✓	-0.04
2026-06-04	oos	0.003442	0.003407	-1.02%	0.004303	+25.01%	0.2311	✗	-0.64
2026-06-03	oos	0.003874	0.003806	-1.75%	0.002921	-24.60%	0.2909	✓	-0.64
2026-06-02	oos	0.003912	0.003827	-2.16%	0.002752	-29.67%	0.3819	✓	-0.67
2026-06-01	oos	0.004258	0.004122	-3.19%	0.0034	-20.15%	0.3908	✓	-1.61
2026-05-31	oos	0.00464	0.004465	-3.78%	0.002709	-41.62%	0.8200	✓	-2.13
2026-05-30	oos	0.005079	0.004871	-4.10%	0.002536	-50.07%	1.0655	✓	-2.14
2026-05-29	oos	0.005568	0.005323	-4.40%	0.00276	-50.43%	1.0390	✓	-2.08
2026-05-28	oos	0.005328	0.005105	-4.18%	0.003442	-35.40%	0.6878	✓	-2.07
2026-05-27	oos	0.006092	0.00579	-4.96%	0.003874	-36.41%	0.7412	✓	-2.28
2026-05-26	oos	0.00445	0.004314	-3.07%	0.003912	-12.09%	0.2729	✓	-1.36
2026-05-25	oos	0.00509	0.004902	-3.70%	0.004258	-16.35%	0.2852	✓	-1.81
2026-05-24	oos	0.004153	0.004063	-2.17%	0.00464	+11.73%	0.1781	✗	1.00
2026-05-23	oos	0.00441	0.004303	-2.43%	0.005079	+15.17%	0.2041	✗	1.00
2026-05-22	oos	0.004059	0.003997	-1.53%	0.005568	+37.18%	0.3594	✗	1.00
2026-05-21	oos	0.003775	0.00374	-0.94%	0.005328	+41.14%	0.4074	✗	1.00
2026-05-20	oos	0.003886	0.003838	-1.24%	0.006092	+56.77%	0.5037	✗	1.00
2026-05-19	oos	0.004278	0.004191	-2.04%	0.00445	+4.02%	0.0723	✗	1.00
2026-05-18	oos	0.005165	0.00501	-3.00%	0.00509	-1.45%	0.0119	✓	1.00
2026-05-17	oos	0.005415	0.005244	-3.16%	0.004153	-23.31%	0.2276	✓	1.00
2026-05-16	oos	0.00561	0.005427	-3.27%	0.00441	-21.39%	0.1886	✓	1.00
2026-05-15	oos	0.005628	0.005445	-3.25%	0.004059	-27.88%	0.2470	✓	1.00
2026-05-14	oos	0.006103	0.005903	-3.28%	0.003775	-38.15%	0.4025	✓	1.00
2026-05-13	oos	0.005994	0.005788	-3.43%	0.003886	-35.17%	0.3754	✓	1.00
2026-05-12	oos	0.006296	0.006079	-3.44%	0.004278	-32.05%	0.3041	✓	1.00
2026-05-11	oos	0.005912	0.005735	-2.99%	0.005165	-12.64%	0.0444	✓	1.00
2026-05-10	oos	0.005016	0.00488	-2.71%	0.005415	+7.95%	0.1641	✗	1.00
2026-05-09	oos	0.006054	0.005865	-3.12%	0.00561	-7.33%	0.0123	✓	1.00
2026-05-08	oos	0.006363	0.00616	-3.19%	0.005628	-11.55%	0.0762	✓	1.00
2026-05-07	oos	0.008334	0.007905	-5.15%	0.006103	-26.77%	0.2720	✓	1.00
2026-05-06	oos	0.006596	0.006401	-2.95%	0.005994	-9.13%	0.0390	✓	1.00
2026-05-05	oos	0.004356	0.004284	-1.65%	0.006296	+44.54%	0.3902	✗	1.00
2026-05-04	oos	0.004281	0.004197	-1.96%	0.005912	+38.10%	0.3194	✗	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.