ASTEROID1

? · · gru_s3

token id: #794
symbol: ASTEROID1
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-04-25
predictions: 516

Track record at +30d

assessed

142

of 172 predictions shown

direction hit

76.8%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.4629

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0862

actual -0.3442

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.001541	0.00144	-6.58%	–	pending	–	–	1.90
2026-10-21	oos	0.001549	0.001455	-6.06%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-20	oos	0.001259	0.001215	-3.45%	–	pending	–	–	1.54
2026-10-19	oos	0.001263	0.001216	-3.69%	–	pending	–	–	1.57
2026-10-18	oos	0.001148	0.001116	-2.81%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-17	oos	0.001229	0.001185	-3.61%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-16	oos	0.001277	0.001228	-3.78%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-15	oos	0.001258	0.001218	-3.18%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-14	oos	0.001084	0.00106	-2.18%	–	pending	–	–	1.68
2026-10-13	oos	0.001144	0.001127	-1.49%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-12	oos	0.001126	0.001104	-1.96%	–	pending	–	–	1.67
2026-10-11	oos	0.001367	0.00135	-1.24%	–	pending	–	–	1.60
2026-10-10	oos	0.001357	0.001335	-1.61%	–	pending	–	–	1.67
2026-10-09	oos	0.00123	0.001213	-1.42%	–	pending	–	–	1.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.001355	0.001321	-2.46%	–	pending	–	–	1.67
2026-10-07	oos	0.001445	0.001414	-2.21%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-06	oos	0.001564	0.001536	-1.81%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-05	oos	0.001631	0.001589	-2.63%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-04	oos	0.001638	0.0016	-2.30%	–	pending	–	–	1.77
2026-10-03	oos	0.001698	0.001622	-4.48%	–	pending	–	–	1.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.001759	0.001665	-5.36%	–	pending	–	–	1.79
2026-10-01	oos	0.001888	0.001766	-6.47%	–	pending	–	–	1.75
2026-09-30	oos	0.001874	0.001739	-7.19%	–	pending	–	–	1.81
2026-09-29	oos	0.001798	0.001683	-6.37%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-09-28	oos	0.001702	0.001608	-5.53%	–	pending	–	–	1.68
2026-09-27	oos	0.001905	0.001785	-6.32%	–	pending	–	–	1.77
2026-09-26	oos	0.001983	0.001851	-6.66%	–	pending	–	–	1.76
2026-09-25	oos	0.002018	0.001883	-6.69%	–	pending	–	–	1.78
2026-09-24	oos	0.002258	0.002081	-7.85%	–	pending	–	–	1.76
2026-09-23	oos	0.001934	0.001842	-4.78%	–	pending	–	–	1.78
2026-09-22	oos	0.002158	0.002053	-4.88%	0.001541	-28.61%	0.2455	✓	1.79
2026-09-21	oos	0.001744	0.001731	-0.72%	0.001549	-11.18%	0.0562	✓	1.83
2026-09-20	oos	0.0015	0.001486	-0.95%	0.001259	-16.10%	0.2051	✓	1.81
2026-09-19	oos	0.001787	0.001732	-3.06%	0.001263	-29.32%	0.3291	✓	1.78
2026-09-18	oos	0.001831	0.001777	-2.97%	0.001148	-37.27%	0.4615	✓	1.82
2026-09-17	oos	0.001605	0.001576	-1.78%	0.001229	-23.40%	0.3591	✓	1.73
2026-09-16	oos	0.001692	0.001653	-2.31%	0.001277	-24.56%	0.3737	✓	1.70
2026-09-15	oos	0.001676	0.001639	-2.20%	0.001258	-24.94%	0.3927	✓	1.54
2026-09-14	oos	0.001803	0.001764	-2.11%	0.001084	-39.89%	0.5505	✓	1.48
2026-09-13	oos	0.001903	0.001837	-3.49%	0.001144	-39.88%	0.5936	✓	1.52
2026-09-12	oos	0.001828	0.001771	-3.14%	0.001126	-38.38%	0.5403	✓	1.56
2026-09-11	oos	0.001956	0.001873	-4.25%	0.001367	-30.14%	0.4398	✓	1.55
2026-09-10	oos	0.002041	0.001934	-5.21%	0.001357	-33.50%	0.4805	✓	1.58
2026-09-09	oos	0.002186	0.002062	-5.67%	0.00123	-43.73%	0.6003	✓	1.58
2026-09-08	oos	0.00224	0.002105	-5.98%	0.001355	-39.52%	0.5182	✓	1.90
2026-09-07	oos	0.002308	0.002165	-6.18%	0.001445	-37.37%	0.5013	✓	1.88
2026-09-06	oos	0.002546	0.00237	-6.90%	0.001564	-38.57%	0.5394	✓	1.97
2026-09-05	oos	0.002485	0.002313	-6.90%	0.001631	-34.33%	0.4866	✓	1.92
2026-09-04	oos	0.003024	0.002757	-8.85%	0.001638	-45.86%	0.6783	✓	1.91
2026-09-03	oos	0.003109	0.00284	-8.66%	0.001698	-45.39%	0.5955	✓	1.94
2026-09-02	oos	0.002326	0.002154	-7.38%	0.001759	-24.38%	0.3662	✓	1.84
2026-09-01	oos	0.002382	0.002203	-7.53%	0.001888	-20.74%	0.3243	✓	1.85
2026-08-31	oos	0.002634	0.002434	-7.61%	0.001874	-28.85%	0.3682	✓	1.74
2026-08-30	oos	0.002947	0.002678	-9.13%	0.001798	-38.99%	0.5243	✓	1.70
2026-08-29	oos	0.002557	0.002373	-7.20%	0.001702	-33.44%	0.4455	✓	1.75
2026-08-28	oos	0.002101	0.001971	-6.16%	0.001905	-9.33%	0.1761	✓	1.74
2026-08-27	oos	0.002319	0.002194	-5.37%	0.001983	-14.49%	0.1868	✓	1.70
2026-08-26	oos	0.002166	0.002026	-6.45%	0.002018	-6.83%	0.1082	✓	1.68
2026-08-25	oos	0.001937	0.001748	-9.76%	0.002258	+16.57%	0.1344	✗	1.69
2026-08-24	oos	0.00227	0.002079	-8.40%	0.001934	-14.80%	0.1706	✓	1.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.00236	0.002146	-9.08%	0.002158	-8.54%	0.1545	✓	1.55
2026-08-22	oos	0.00264	0.002394	-9.32%	0.001744	-33.94%	0.5029	✓	1.59
2026-08-21	oos	0.002582	0.002363	-8.50%	0.0015	-41.91%	0.5116	✓	1.61
2026-08-20	oos	0.003052	0.002673	-12.42%	0.001787	-41.45%	0.6356	✓	2.18
2026-08-19	oos	0.002289	0.002048	-10.54%	0.001831	-20.01%	0.3893	✓	1.80
2026-08-18	oos	0.00195	0.001728	-11.37%	0.001605	-17.69%	0.3551	✓	1.69
2026-08-17	oos	0.001986	0.001749	-11.96%	0.001692	-14.80%	0.3084	✓	1.66
2026-08-16	oos	0.001873	0.001637	-12.60%	0.001676	-10.52%	0.2786	✓	1.64
2026-08-15	oos	0.001955	0.001699	-13.08%	0.001803	-7.80%	0.2943	✓	1.64
2026-08-14	oos	0.002087	0.0018	-13.75%	0.001903	-8.82%	0.2716	✓	1.65
2026-08-13	oos	0.00194	0.001682	-13.31%	0.001828	-5.77%	0.2434	✓	1.66
2026-08-12	oos	0.002211	0.00189	-14.53%	0.001956	-11.53%	0.2989	✓	1.69
2026-08-11	oos	0.002031	0.001752	-13.74%	0.002041	+0.47%	0.1604	✓	1.68
2026-08-10	oos	0.001751	0.001531	-12.56%	0.002186	+24.84%	0.0099	✓	1.71
2026-08-09	oos	0.001717	0.001503	-12.45%	0.00224	+30.43%	0.0777	✓	1.69
2026-08-08	oos	0.001589	0.001389	-12.57%	0.002308	+45.25%	0.1794	✗	1.66
2026-08-07	oos	0.001601	0.001391	-13.09%	0.002546	+59.03%	0.2820	✗	1.51
2026-08-06	oos	0.002119	0.001808	-14.66%	0.002485	+17.25%	0.0319	✓	1.61
2026-08-05	oos	0.001998	0.001714	-14.21%	0.003024	+51.38%	0.2371	✗	1.58
2026-08-04	oos	0.002382	0.001982	-16.80%	0.003109	+30.54%	0.0921	✓	1.51
2026-08-03	oos	0.001356	0.001174	-13.39%	0.002326	+71.53%	0.4049	✗	1.41
2026-08-02	oos	0.001354	0.00116	-14.36%	0.002382	+75.92%	0.4399	✗	1.41
2026-08-01	oos	0.001573	0.001345	-14.52%	0.002634	+67.45%	0.3248	✗	1.55
2026-07-31	oos	0.001676	0.001429	-14.71%	0.002947	+75.84%	0.3951	✗	1.55
2026-07-30	oos	0.001696	0.001458	-14.04%	0.002557	+50.77%	0.2821	✗	1.48
2026-07-29	oos	0.001747	0.00149	-14.70%	0.002101	+20.26%	0.0476	✓	1.50
2026-07-28	oos	0.001803	0.001535	-14.89%	0.002319	+28.62%	0.0799	✓	1.45
2026-07-27	oos	0.002076	0.001749	-15.78%	0.002166	+4.34%	0.0958	✓	1.44
2026-07-26	oos	0.002034	0.001732	-14.85%	0.001937	-4.77%	0.1617	✓	1.49
2026-07-25	oos	0.002304	0.001907	-17.21%	0.00227	-1.48%	0.1510	✓	1.58
2026-07-24	oos	0.002315	0.001896	-18.08%	0.00236	+1.94%	0.0510	✓	1.40
2026-07-23	oos	0.001482	0.00129	-12.98%	0.00264	+78.14%	0.4442	✗	1.61
2026-07-22	oos	0.00136	0.001193	-12.26%	0.002582	+89.85%	0.4883	✗	1.67
2026-07-21	oos	0.001551	0.001359	-12.41%	0.003052	+96.78%	0.6554	✗	1.65
2026-07-20	oos	0.001198	0.001064	-11.17%	0.002289	+91.07%	0.6766	✗	1.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.001223	0.001085	-11.30%	0.00195	+59.44%	0.5864	✗	1.47
2026-07-18	oos	0.001349	0.001189	-11.83%	0.001986	+47.22%	0.5199	✗	1.47
2026-07-17	oos	0.001424	0.001252	-12.05%	0.001873	+31.53%	0.4276	✗	1.51
2026-07-16	oos	0.001041	0.00096158	-7.63%	0.001955	+87.80%	0.7268	✗	1.46
2026-07-15	oos	0.001046	0.000969403	-7.32%	0.002087	+99.52%	0.8070	✗	1.47
2026-07-14	oos	0.001158	0.001065	-8.03%	0.00194	+67.53%	0.6355	✗	1.47
2026-07-13	oos	0.001046	0.000987726	-5.57%	0.002211	+111.38%	0.7809	✗	1.36
2026-07-12	oos	0.001205	0.001125	-6.66%	0.002031	+68.55%	0.5952	✗	1.29
2026-07-11	oos	0.001323	0.001235	-6.66%	0.001751	+32.35%	0.3464	✗	1.30
2026-07-10	oos	0.001144	0.001093	-4.48%	0.001717	+50.09%	0.4372	✗	1.32
2026-07-09	oos	0.001093	0.001059	-3.09%	0.001589	+45.38%	0.3708	✗	1.28
2026-07-08	oos	0.001003	0.000978819	-2.41%	0.001601	+59.62%	0.4411	✗	1.22
2026-07-07	oos	0.001139	0.001115	-2.07%	0.002119	+86.04%	0.6244	✗	1.17
2026-07-06	oos	0.001392	0.001365	-1.91%	0.001998	+43.53%	0.3702	✗	1.12
2026-07-05	oos	0.001462	0.001443	-1.30%	0.002382	+62.93%	0.4929	✗	1.13
2026-07-04	oos	0.001537	0.001524	-0.82%	0.001356	-11.78%	0.1240	✓	1.15
2026-07-03	oos	0.001855	0.001838	-0.91%	0.001354	-27.01%	0.3249	✓	1.24
2026-07-02	oos	0.001555	0.001551	-0.27%	0.001573	+1.16%	0.0083	✓	1.09
2026-07-01	oos	0.001815	0.001804	-0.59%	0.001676	-7.66%	0.1340	✓	1.29
2026-06-30	oos	0.001818	0.001808	-0.53%	0.001696	-6.71%	0.1958	✓	1.31
2026-06-29	oos	0.002226	0.002189	-1.66%	0.001747	-21.52%	0.2947	✓	1.15
2026-06-28	oos	0.002274	0.002234	-1.78%	0.001803	-20.71%	0.2965	✓	1.16
2026-06-27	oos	0.002491	0.002435	-2.26%	0.002076	-16.66%	0.2294	✓	1.15
2026-06-26	oos	0.002527	0.002463	-2.52%	0.002034	-19.51%	0.2896	✓	1.15
2026-06-25	oos	0.002311	0.002258	-2.28%	0.002304	-0.30%	0.0620	✓	1.11
2026-06-24	oos	0.002585	0.002495	-3.49%	0.002315	-10.44%	0.1268	✓	1.05
2026-06-23	oos	0.002713	0.002593	-4.42%	0.001482	-45.37%	0.5989	✓	1.05
2026-06-22	oos	0.003108	0.002931	-5.71%	0.00136	-56.24%	0.7994	✓	0.96
2026-06-21	oos	0.003271	0.003064	-6.31%	0.001551	-52.58%	0.7314	✓	1.00
2026-06-20	oos	0.003663	0.003379	-7.75%	0.001198	-67.29%	1.0515	✓	0.95
2026-06-19	oos	0.003814	0.003504	-8.12%	0.001223	-67.93%	1.0711	✓	0.98
2026-06-18	oos	0.004509	0.004039	-10.42%	0.001349	-70.08%	1.1294	✓	1.09
2026-06-17	oos	0.003947	0.003611	-8.52%	0.001424	-63.92%	0.9195	✓	1.27
2026-06-16	oos	0.003759	0.003453	-8.13%	0.001041	-72.31%	1.1610	✓	1.34
2026-06-15	oos	0.003974	0.003618	-8.96%	0.001046	-73.68%	1.2093	✓	1.33
2026-06-14	oos	0.003552	0.003289	-7.41%	0.001158	-67.40%	1.0301	✓	1.25
2026-06-13	oos	0.003566	0.003312	-7.12%	0.001046	-70.67%	1.1091	✓	1.27
2026-06-12	oos	0.003336	0.003134	-6.05%	0.001205	-63.88%	0.9598	✓	1.21
2026-06-11	oos	0.004303	0.003884	-9.74%	0.001323	-69.25%	1.0811	✓	1.26
2026-06-10	oos	0.002921	0.002805	-3.96%	0.001144	-60.84%	0.9152	✓	0.43
2026-06-09	oos	0.002752	0.002657	-3.43%	0.001093	-60.28%	0.8984	✓	0.42
2026-06-08	oos	0.0034	0.003211	-5.55%	0.001003	-70.50%	1.1606	✓	0.23
2026-06-07	oos	0.002709	0.002615	-3.48%	0.001139	-57.95%	0.8311	✓	0.21
2026-06-06	oos	0.002536	0.002467	-2.72%	0.001392	-45.11%	0.5696	✓	-0.05
2026-06-05	oos	0.00276	0.002669	-3.29%	0.001462	-47.03%	0.6003	✓	-0.04
2026-06-04	oos	0.003442	0.003247	-5.68%	0.001537	-55.35%	0.7551	✓	-0.64
2026-06-03	oos	0.003874	0.003604	-6.97%	0.001855	-52.12%	0.6795	✓	-0.64
2026-06-02	oos	0.003912	0.003605	-7.85%	0.001555	-60.25%	0.8948	✓	-0.67
2026-06-01	oos	0.004258	0.003835	-9.92%	0.001815	-57.37%	1.0277	✓	-1.61
2026-05-31	oos	0.00464	0.00412	-11.21%	0.001818	-60.82%	1.3057	✓	-2.13
2026-05-30	oos	0.005079	0.004466	-12.07%	0.002226	-56.17%	1.1335	✓	-2.14
2026-05-29	oos	0.005568	0.004841	-13.05%	0.002274	-59.16%	1.1915	✓	-2.08
2026-05-28	oos	0.005328	0.004655	-12.63%	0.002491	-53.25%	1.0486	✓	-2.07
2026-05-27	oos	0.006092	0.005206	-14.54%	0.002527	-58.52%	1.2106	✓	-2.28
2026-05-26	oos	0.00445	0.003988	-10.38%	0.002311	-48.07%	0.8706	✓	-1.36
2026-05-25	oos	0.00509	0.004514	-11.31%	0.002585	-49.21%	0.9845	✓	-1.81
2026-05-24	oos	0.004153	0.003783	-8.92%	0.002713	-34.67%	0.1263	✓	1.00
2026-05-23	oos	0.00441	0.004007	-9.14%	0.003108	-29.52%	0.0729	✓	1.00
2026-05-22	oos	0.004059	0.003729	-8.13%	0.003271	-19.41%	0.0455	✓	1.00
2026-05-21	oos	0.003775	0.003503	-7.19%	0.003663	-2.97%	0.2331	✗	1.00
2026-05-20	oos	0.003886	0.003602	-7.30%	0.003814	-1.85%	0.2564	✗	1.00
2026-05-19	oos	0.004278	0.003936	-7.98%	0.004509	+5.40%	0.3354	✗	1.00
2026-05-18	oos	0.005165	0.004695	-9.10%	0.003947	-23.58%	0.0037	✓	1.00
2026-05-17	oos	0.005415	0.004908	-9.37%	0.003759	-30.58%	0.1014	✓	1.00
2026-05-16	oos	0.00561	0.005076	-9.52%	0.003974	-29.16%	0.0806	✓	1.00
2026-05-15	oos	0.005628	0.005102	-9.35%	0.003552	-36.89%	0.1771	✓	1.00
2026-05-14	oos	0.006103	0.005542	-9.20%	0.003566	-41.57%	0.2110	✓	1.00
2026-05-13	oos	0.005994	0.005402	-9.88%	0.003336	-44.34%	0.2605	✓	1.00
2026-05-12	oos	0.006296	0.005676	-9.84%	0.004303	-31.66%	0.0410	✓	1.00
2026-05-11	oos	0.005912	0.005416	-8.39%	0.002921	-50.59%	0.3322	✓	1.00
2026-05-10	oos	0.005016	0.004634	-7.62%	0.002752	-45.15%	0.2341	✓	1.00
2026-05-09	oos	0.006054	0.005508	-9.02%	0.0034	-43.84%	0.2363	✓	1.00
2026-05-08	oos	0.006363	0.005763	-9.42%	0.002709	-57.43%	0.5185	✓	1.00
2026-05-07	oos	0.008334	0.007142	-14.31%	0.002536	-69.57%	0.7617	✓	1.00
2026-05-06	oos	0.006596	0.006066	-8.04%	0.00276	-58.16%	0.4990	✓	1.00
2026-05-05	oos	0.004356	0.004088	-6.15%	0.003442	-20.98%	0.0655	✗	1.00
2026-05-04	oos	0.004281	0.003983	-6.95%	0.003874	-9.51%	0.1928	✗	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.