2022-01-27 · +1d

gru_s3 · in-sample — the model trained on this date · 144 tokens predicted

These numbers are in-sample. The model was trained on this date, so predicted-vs-actual agreement here is not evidence of skill.

+1d +7d +30d asset cohort only

rank IC

+0.1470

144 of 144 tokens assessed

long-short decile

+2.86%

realised beta-adjusted alpha

direction hit

55.6%

in alpha space · 53.1% on raw price

BTC over horizon

+1.49%

the unhedgeable market factor

Predicted vs actual (144 rows, sorted by pred)

token	name	chain	anchor px	pred px ▾	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d	vol 30d	target
SPELL	Spell	Ethereum	0.00534	0.005389	+0.92%	0.00547	+2.43%	0.0187	✗	2.27	21.3M	2022-01-28
MOVR	Moonriver	Base	73.6045	74.0535	+0.61%	77.0062	+4.62%	0.0211	✓	1.22	442k	2022-01-28
SUSHI	Sushi	Ethereum	4.05	4.0734	+0.58%	4.16	+2.72%	0.0012	✓	1.34	12.5M	2022-01-28
NAKA	Nakamoto Games	Polygon	0.4535	0.455733	+0.49%	0.482	+6.28%	0.0347	✓	1.45	2.1M	2022-01-28
ICP	Internet Computer	Ethereum	19.61	19.698	+0.45%	20.31	+3.57%	0.0121	✓	1.25	34.3M	2022-01-28
BICO	Biconomy	Ethereum	1.95	1.9586	+0.44%	1.97	+1.03%	0.0159	✗	1.47	4.6M	2022-01-28
UNI	Uniswap	Ethereum	10.32	10.3598	+0.39%	10.67	+3.39%	0.0099	✓	1.33	12.5M	2022-01-28
TRAC	OriginTrail	Ethereum	0.5781	0.580206	+0.36%	0.5887	+1.83%	0.0081	✗	1.53	1.4M	2022-01-28
ZEC	Zcash	Zcash	88.89	89.1851	+0.33%	91.3	+2.71%	0.0040	✓	1.32	7.5M	2022-01-28
MASK	Mask Network	Ethereum	5.62	5.6376	+0.31%	5.91	+5.16%	0.0331	✓	0.95	960k	2022-01-28
FIL	Filecoin	Filecoin	19.21	19.2692	+0.31%	19.63	+2.19%	0.0011	✓	1.18	13.6M	2022-01-28
CRV	Curve DAO	Ethereum	2.79	2.7983	+0.30%	2.93	+5.02%	0.0253	✓	1.40	26.3M	2022-01-28
COMP	Compound	Ethereum	121.94	122.2705	+0.27%	124.2	+1.85%	0.0032	✗	1.28	74k	2022-01-28
AGLD	Adventure Gold	Ethereum	0.81	0.812174	+0.27%	0.85	+4.94%	0.0232	✓	1.51	532k	2022-01-28
AAVE	Aave	Ethereum	144.54	144.9101	+0.26%	149.11	+3.16%	0.0085	✓	1.36	14.3M	2022-01-28
ACH	Alchemy Pay	Ethereum	0.038232	0.038327	+0.25%	0.038917	+1.79%	0.0027	✗	1.22	10.8M	2022-01-28
LINK	Chainlink	Ethereum	15.23	15.2673	+0.24%	16.16	+6.11%	0.0389	✓	1.21	81.3M	2022-01-28
OGN	Origin Token	Ethereum	0.314	0.314761	+0.24%	0.328	+4.46%	0.0208	✓	1.38	1.6M	2022-01-28
RAD	Radworks	Ethereum	5.07	5.082	+0.24%	5.11	+0.79%	0.0091	✗	0.98	1.1M	2022-01-28
GTC	Gitcoin	Ethereum	6.75	6.7659	+0.24%	7.1	+5.19%	0.0441	✓	0.28	2.0M	2022-01-28
RIF	Rootstock Infrastructure Framework	Ethereum	0.1146	0.114863	+0.23%	0.1177	+2.71%	0.0104	✓	0.95	349k	2022-01-28
QNT	Quant	Ethereum	93.16	93.3671	+0.22%	97.25	+4.39%	0.0255	✓	1.03	7.5M	2022-01-28
DODO	DODO	Ethereum	0.482	0.482961	+0.20%	0.491	+1.87%	0.0061	✗	1.53	5.5M	2022-01-28
ENS	Ethereum Name Service	Ethereum	16.82	16.8526	+0.19%	17.9	+6.42%	0.0336	✓	1.81	3.9M	2022-01-28
UMA	UMA	Ethereum	5.67	5.6809	+0.19%	6.01	+6.00%	0.0406	✓	1.06	2.6M	2022-01-28
ASM	Assemble AI	Ethereum	0.04978	0.049874	+0.19%	0.05152	+3.50%	0.0115	✓	1.42	1.7M	2022-01-28
KSM	Kusama	Hydration	164.64	164.9161	+0.17%	169	+2.65%	0.0067	✓	1.20	1.3M	2022-01-28
XVS	Venus	Ethereum	8.39	8.403	+0.16%	8.42	+0.36%	0.0175	✗	1.32	2.9M	2022-01-28
CERE	Cere Network	Ethereum	0.0357	0.035752	+0.14%	0.0353	-1.12%	0.0345	✗	1.48	887k	2022-01-28
TRB	Tellor Tributes	Ethereum	18.67	18.6967	+0.14%	20.08	+7.55%	0.0485	✓	1.55	841k	2022-01-28
DASH	Dash	Dash	91.73	91.8612	+0.14%	95.64	+4.26%	0.0229	✓	1.18	3.0M	2022-01-28
GITCOIN	GITCOIN		6.745	6.7538	+0.13%	7.091	+5.13%	0.0452	✓	0.24	38k	2022-01-28
SUPER	SuperVerse	Ethereum	0.65	0.650821	+0.13%	0.64	-1.54%	0.0445	✗	1.88	1.2M	2022-01-28
SKL	SKALE	Ethereum	0.1127	0.112838	+0.12%	0.1183	+4.97%	0.0280	✓	1.30	3.9M	2022-01-28
YFI	yearn.finance	Ethereum	23,910.78	23,938.93	+0.12%	23,506.67	-1.69%	0.0319	✗	0.93	19.5M	2022-01-28
SUN	Sun Token	Tron	0.014097	0.014113	+0.12%	0.014181	+0.60%	0.0128	✗	1.19	2.7M	2022-01-28
BAND	Band	Ethereum	3.38	3.3838	+0.11%	3.46	+2.37%	0.0040	✓	1.24	2.5M	2022-01-28
SOL	Solana	Solana	89.55	89.6511	+0.11%	91.35	+2.01%	0.0013	✓	1.18	164.2M	2022-01-28
RLC	iExec RLC	Ethereum	1.76	1.7619	+0.11%	1.82	+3.41%	0.0123	✓	1.36	2.9M	2022-01-28
BNT	Bancor Network	Ethereum	2.3	2.3025	+0.11%	2.4	+4.35%	0.0265	✓	1.02	800k	2022-01-28
XVG	Verge	native	0.00965	0.00966	+0.10%	0.00986	+2.18%	0.0009	✓	1.33	1.6M	2022-01-28
STORJ	Storj	Ethereum	1.0754	1.0764	+0.09%	1.1266	+4.76%	0.0311	✓	0.98	387k	2022-01-28
PHA	PHALA	Ethereum	0.243	0.243223	+0.09%	0.247	+1.65%	0.0013	✓	0.96	67k	2022-01-28
AXS	Axie Infinity	Ethereum	47.47	47.5112	+0.09%	47.09	-0.80%	0.0261	✗	1.16	7.5M	2022-01-28
JASMY	JasmyCoin	Ethereum	0.04646	0.046498	+0.08%	0.04731	+1.83%	0.0023	✗	1.32	9.5M	2022-01-28
XTZ	Tezos	Tezos	2.9095	2.9118	+0.08%	3.0264	+4.02%	0.0185	✓	1.36	2.6M	2022-01-28
LCX	LCX	Ethereum	0.0947	0.09477	+0.07%	0.0927	-2.11%	0.0440	✗	1.48	1.9M	2022-01-28
LRC	Loopring	Ethereum	0.9645	0.965175	+0.07%	0.9906	+2.71%	0.0031	✗	1.97	1.1M	2022-01-28
DEXE	DeXe	Ethereum	6.37	6.3744	+0.07%	6.49	+1.88%	0.0148	✓	0.21	1.2M	2022-01-28
MINA	Mina Protocol	native	2.26	2.2615	+0.07%	2.29	+1.33%	0.0050	✗	1.19	626k	2022-01-28
BEL	Bella Protocol	Ethereum	0.861	0.861559	+0.06%	0.899	+4.41%	0.0223	✓	1.37	2.4M	2022-01-28
GRT	The Graph	Ethereum	0.4054	0.40562	+0.05%	0.4141	+2.15%	0.0017	✓	1.28	10.9M	2022-01-28
XMR	Monero	Monero	144.6	144.678	+0.05%	149.15	+3.15%	0.0156	✓	1.00	2.2M	2022-01-28
XLM	Stellar	Stellar	0.194019	0.194124	+0.05%	0.198646	+2.38%	0.0078	✓	1.03	26.2M	2022-01-28
AMP	Amp	Ethereum	0.02909	0.029104	+0.05%	0.03024	+3.95%	0.0246	✓	0.93	8.7M	2022-01-28
SHIB	Shiba Inu	Ethereum	0.00002125	0.000021259	+0.04%	0.00002134	+0.42%	0.0171	✗	1.42	1.8M	2022-01-28
ALGO	Algorand	Algorand	0.9364	0.936804	+0.04%	0.9591	+2.42%	0.0063	✓	1.16	37.9M	2022-01-28
ZEN	Horizen	Base	36.7	36.7153	+0.04%	38.97	+6.19%	0.0364	✓	1.57	626k	2022-01-28
TKO	Tokocrypto	Binance Smart Chain	0.725	0.725277	+0.04%	0.736	+1.52%	0.0017	✗	1.11	1.9M	2022-01-28
AUCTION	Bounce	Ethereum	13.95	13.9551	+0.04%	14.23	+2.01%	0.0048	✓	0.99	841k	2022-01-28
XPR	XPR Network	Ethereum	0.01041	0.010413	+0.03%	0.01046	+0.48%	0.0144	✗	1.28	2.2M	2022-01-28
DOT	Polkadot	Polkadot	18.13	18.1341	+0.02%	18.34	+1.16%	0.0091	✗	1.38	54.6M	2022-01-28
SC	Siacoin	native	0.00962	0.009622	+0.02%	0.0101	+4.99%	0.0330	✓	1.05	611k	2022-01-28
LPT	Livepeer	Ethereum	24.3	24.3041	+0.02%	25.85	+6.38%	0.0370	✓	1.67	2.7M	2022-01-28
QTUM	Qtum	Qtum	5.5654	5.5661	+0.01%	5.7966	+4.15%	0.0195	✓	1.43	227k	2022-01-28
ZRX	0x Protocol	Ethereum	0.530399	0.530446	+0.01%	0.544057	+2.58%	0.0074	✓	1.21	3.7M	2022-01-28
ETH	Ethereum	Ethereum	2,425.82	2,426.01	+0.01%	2,546.84	+4.99%	0.0323	✓	1.10	569.1M	2022-01-28
MTL	Metal DAO	Metal L2	1.399	1.399	+0.00%	1.438	+2.79%	0.0101	✓	1.18	1.6M	2022-01-28
OXT	Orchid Protocol	Ethereum	0.2343	0.234281	-0.01%	0.2434	+3.88%	0.0199	✗	1.24	1.8M	2022-01-28
BCH	Bitcoin Cash	Bitcoin Cash	289.64	289.6121	-0.01%	296.79	+2.47%	0.0091	✗	1.04	8.5M	2022-01-28
HIVE	Hive	native	0.8838	0.88369	-0.01%	0.931	+5.34%	0.0298	✗	1.51	3.2M	2022-01-28
KCS	KuCoin	native	16.064	16.0616	-0.01%	16.846	+4.87%	0.0254	✗	1.51	10.9M	2022-01-28
IOTA	IOTA	IOTA	0.8032	0.803036	-0.02%	0.8173	+1.76%	0.0014	✗	1.10	20.0M	2022-01-28
CHZ	Chiliz	Ethereum	0.1754	0.175363	-0.02%	0.1798	+2.51%	0.0049	✗	1.36	4.0M	2022-01-28
IMX	Immutable	Ethereum	2.65	2.6494	-0.02%	2.82	+6.42%	0.0400	✗	1.52	2.2M	2022-01-28
POKT	Pocket Network	Ethereum	1.2041	1.2038	-0.02%	1.2839	+6.63%	0.0496	✗	1.00	3.6M	2022-01-28
XYO	XYO Network	Ethereum	0.020242	0.020237	-0.03%	0.020623	+1.88%	0.0024	✗	1.12	3.2M	2022-01-28
ATM	Atletico Madrid Fan Token	Solana	5.12	5.1183	-0.03%	5.14	+0.39%	0.0065	✓	0.73	457k	2022-01-28
1INCH	1INCH	Ethereum	1.59	1.5895	-0.03%	1.65	+3.77%	0.0186	✗	1.27	2.3M	2022-01-28
LAZIO	Lazio Fan Token	Binance Smart Chain	3.0464	3.0454	-0.03%	3.1165	+2.30%	0.0069	✗	1.09	3.6M	2022-01-28
TRX	TRON	Tron	0.056453	0.056433	-0.03%	0.057631	+2.09%	0.0071	✗	0.94	478k	2022-01-28
DOGE	Dogecoin	Dogecoin	0.141443	0.141384	-0.04%	0.141603	+0.11%	0.0140	✓	1.05	7.1M	2022-01-28
GLMR	Moonbeam	Base	6.617	6.6142	-0.04%	6.452	-2.49%	0.0396	✓	1.00	1.6M	2022-01-28
UOS	Ultra	Ethereum	0.99692	0.996377	-0.05%	1.0442	+4.74%	0.0279	✗	1.28	2.4M	2022-01-28
LSK	Lisk	Ethereum	1.5616	1.5608	-0.05%	1.6203	+3.76%	0.0210	✗	1.11	89k	2022-01-28
NCT	PolySwarm	Ethereum	0.04444	0.044414	-0.06%	0.0541	+21.74%	0.1825	✗	1.00	6.4M	2022-01-28
AVAX	Avalanche	Avalanche	64.73	64.6916	-0.06%	67.06	+3.60%	0.0164	✗	1.32	92.3M	2022-01-28
XEC	eCash	native	0.00007022	0.000070174	-0.07%	0.00007277	+3.63%	0.0200	✗	1.11	5.8M	2022-01-28
BCHSV	Bitcoin Cash SV		89.31	89.2511	-0.07%	90.37	+1.19%	0.0015	✓	0.94	1.7M	2022-01-28
LUNA	Terra	Terra 2	54.08	54.0441	-0.07%	50.6	-6.43%	0.0909	✓	1.70	8.6M	2022-01-28
GODS	Gods Unchained	Ethereum	2.23	2.2285	-0.07%	2.25	+0.90%	0.0133	✓	1.55	2.6M	2022-01-28
NANO	nanopay	Base	2.3156	2.3139	-0.08%	2.3494	+1.46%	0.0031	✓	1.24	841k	2022-01-28
ENJ	Enjin Coin	Ethereum	1.58	1.5788	-0.08%	1.639	+3.73%	0.0183	✗	1.29	1.8M	2022-01-28
OG	OG Fan Token	Solana	3.107	3.1046	-0.08%	3.294	+6.02%	0.0465	✗	0.86	944k	2022-01-28
ASR	AS Roma Fan Token	Solana	2.955	2.9526	-0.08%	3.011	+1.90%	0.0078	✗	0.79	431k	2022-01-28
XEM	NEM	native	0.0984	0.098321	-0.08%	0.0999	+1.52%	0.0005	✓	1.04	43k	2022-01-28
WBTC	Wrapped Bitcoin	Ethereum	37,269.30	37,239.22	-0.08%	37,761.00	+1.32%	0.0011	✓	1.01	47k	2022-01-28
DKA	dKargo	Ethereum	0.08437	0.0843	-0.08%	0.08808	+4.40%	0.0263	✗	1.19	46k	2022-01-28
CBK	Cobak	Ethereum	2.121	2.1191	-0.09%	2.181	+2.83%	0.0129	✗	1.08	23k	2022-01-28
ORBS	Orbs	Ethereum	0.0638	0.06374	-0.09%	0.0647	+1.41%	0.0016	✓	1.12	21k	2022-01-28
CTSI	Cartesi	Ethereum	0.4474	0.446971	-0.10%	0.4527	+1.18%	0.0077	✓	1.38	2.5M	2022-01-28
DNT	district0x	Ethereum	0.0794	0.079322	-0.10%	0.0812	+2.27%	0.0051	✗	1.24	352k	2022-01-28
ETC	Ethereum Classic	native	24.33	24.3061	-0.10%	25.23	+3.70%	0.0214	✗	1.07	3.8M	2022-01-28
BTC	Bitcoin	Bitcoin	37,188.37	37,151.79	-0.10%	37,741.90	+1.49%	0.0010	✓	1.00	734.4M	2022-01-28
BAR	FC Barcelona Fan Token	Solana	5.84	5.8337	-0.11%	5.81	-0.51%	0.0157	✓	0.78	504k	2022-01-28
MANA	Decentraland	Ethereum	2.2527	2.2502	-0.11%	2.2835	+1.37%	0.0008	✓	0.94	3.1M	2022-01-28
XYM	Symbol	native	0.1614	0.161214	-0.12%	0.177	+9.67%	0.0837	✗	0.66	573k	2022-01-28
BAT	Basic Attention	Ethereum	0.83214	0.831135	-0.12%	0.86446	+3.88%	0.0139	✗	1.72	681k	2022-01-28
MED	Medibloc	Osmosis	0.0403	0.040251	-0.12%	0.04014	-0.40%	0.0195	✓	1.14	30k	2022-01-28
ANKR	Ankr Network	Ethereum	0.07195	0.071857	-0.13%	0.07192	-0.04%	0.0107	✓	0.78	60k	2022-01-28
ADA	Cardano	Cardano	1.0428	1.0414	-0.14%	1.0486	+0.56%	0.0098	✓	1.13	113.2M	2022-01-28
LEO	LEO Token	Ethereum	3.4851	3.4799	-0.15%	3.4691	-0.46%	0.0028	✓	-0.02	371k	2022-01-28
JUV	Juventus Fan Token	Solana	5.9	5.8911	-0.15%	6.04	+2.37%	0.0125	✗	0.85	561k	2022-01-28
COTI	COTI	Ethereum	0.2772	0.27678	-0.15%	0.3094	+11.62%	0.0886	✗	1.54	4.2M	2022-01-28
LTC	Litecoin	Litecoin	106.92	106.7571	-0.15%	109.49	+2.40%	0.0056	✗	1.33	35.7M	2022-01-28
ACM	AC Milan Fan Token	Solana	3.89	3.884	-0.15%	3.923	+0.85%	0.0016	✓	0.78	396k	2022-01-28
TWT	Trust Wallet	Binance Smart Chain	0.5092	0.508408	-0.16%	0.5223	+2.57%	0.0068	✗	1.36	2.8M	2022-01-28
CWEB	Coinweb	Ethereum	0.050557	0.050475	-0.16%	0.046901	-7.23%	0.0882	✓	1.00	332k	2022-01-28
METRONOME	METRONOME		2.7225	2.7178	-0.17%	3.0715	+12.82%	0.1098	✗	0.85	8,523	2022-01-28
DYDX	dYdX	Cosmos	5.722	5.7121	-0.17%	5.923	+3.51%	0.0218	✗	0.98	320k	2022-01-28
SANTOS	Santos FC Fan Token	Binance Smart Chain	2.637	2.632	-0.19%	2.647	+0.38%	0.0170	✓	1.54	1.0M	2022-01-28
EWT	Energy Web Token	Ethereum	5.873	5.8617	-0.19%	6.131	+4.39%	0.0326	✗	0.83	145k	2022-01-28
OMG	OMG Network	Ethereum	4.2126	4.2044	-0.20%	4.5826	+8.78%	0.0683	✗	1.21	403k	2022-01-28
CITY	Manchester City Fan Token	Solana	8.93	8.912	-0.20%	9.05	+1.34%	0.0044	✗	0.75	724k	2022-01-28
PORTO	FC Porto	Binance Smart Chain	2.7628	2.7571	-0.21%	2.7962	+1.21%	0.0011	✓	1.03	1.9M	2022-01-28
PSG	Paris Saint-Germain Fan Token	Solana	12.75	12.7202	-0.23%	12.86	+0.86%	0.0009	✓	0.68	801k	2022-01-28
CVC	Civic	Ethereum	0.2367	0.235993	-0.30%	0.2523	+6.59%	0.0503	✗	1.12	469k	2022-01-28
SNX	Synthetix	Ethereum	4.57	4.5559	-0.31%	4.57	+0.00%	0.0153	✓	1.24	3.1M	2022-01-28
ATOM	Cosmos Hub	Cosmos	30	29.9055	-0.31%	29.5	-1.67%	0.0305	✓	1.14	130.3M	2022-01-28
ASTR	Astar	Ethereum	0.093	0.092703	-0.32%	0.114	+22.58%	0.1920	✗	1.00	141k	2022-01-28
POWR	Powerledger	Ethereum	0.5303	0.52858	-0.32%	0.5555	+4.75%	0.0325	✗	1.16	2.1M	2022-01-28
PRO	Propy	Ethereum	2.38	2.3712	-0.37%	2.39	+0.42%	0.0069	✓	1.00	3.8M	2022-01-28
ARPA	ARPA	Ethereum	0.065	0.064736	-0.41%	0.0629	-3.23%	0.0500	✓	1.44	605k	2022-01-28
API3	Api3	Ethereum	3.97	3.9536	-0.41%	3.75	-5.54%	0.0565	✓	0.25	570k	2022-01-28
CTK	Shentu	Osmosis	1.42	1.4138	-0.44%	1.436	+1.13%	0.0035	✓	1.29	3.6M	2022-01-28
CELL	Cellframe	Ethereum	0.8569	0.852805	-0.48%	0.8915	+4.04%	0.0221	✗	1.50	107k	2022-01-28
FTT	FTX	Ethereum	38.35	38.1648	-0.48%	40.01	+4.33%	0.0294	✗	1.21	35.1M	2022-01-28
GT	Gate	Ethereum	6.5312	6.499	-0.49%	6.5861	+0.84%	0.0004	✓	0.93	4.2M	2022-01-28
VSYS	V.SYSTEMS	native	0.01439	0.014313	-0.53%	0.01255	-12.79%	0.1452	✓	0.93	19k	2022-01-28
DUSK	DUSK	Ethereum	0.6525	0.64842	-0.63%	0.6272	-3.88%	0.0615	✓	1.91	52.0M	2022-01-28
BFC	Bifrost	Ethereum	0.17087	0.169734	-0.66%	0.1835	+7.39%	0.0548	✗	1.57	18k	2022-01-28
PEOPLE	ConstitutionDAO	Ethereum	0.0541	0.053699	-0.74%	0.0567	+4.81%	0.0225	✗	2.16	22.4M	2022-01-28
KNC	Kyber Network Crystal	Ethereum	1.8043	1.7876	-0.92%	1.7954	-0.49%	0.0071	✓	0.78	2.6M	2022-01-28
NMR	Numeraire	Ethereum	26.76	26.4307	-1.23%	27.6	+3.14%	0.0317	✗	0.79	377k	2022-01-28

Δ columns are percentage price moves; alpha err and the hit column are in beta-adjusted log-return space, which is what the model actually predicts. “pending” means the horizon has not matured yet. Rows are capped for readability — add &limit=2000 to widen.