TOLLY
Tolly · Arc · gru_s2
- token id
- #737
- symbol
- TOLLY
- variant
- –
- chain
- Arc
- address
- 0xbc43ce8dec648ea298c4275559b81d6261c90b67
- cohort
- datapoint (mid-window listing)
- first bar
- 2026-09-16
- predictions
- 84
Track record at +7d
assessed
21
of 28 predictions shown
direction hit
47.6%
alpha space; 50% is a coin flip
MAE (alpha)
0.4258
mean absolute log-return error
mean pred / actual
+0.0199
actual -0.3931
History
| as of | split | anchor px | pred px | pred Δ | actual px | actual Δ | alpha err | hit | β90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | oos | 0.0017 | 0.001627 | -4.28% | – | pending | – | – | -1.65 |
| 2026-10-21 | oos | 0.001688 | 0.001635 | -3.14% | – | pending | – | – | -1.65 |
| 2026-10-20 | oos | 0.001677 | 0.001646 | -1.84% | – | pending | – | – | -1.70 |
| 2026-10-19 | oos | 0.001597 | 0.001595 | -0.14% | – | pending | – | – | -1.80 |
| 2026-10-18 | oos | 0.001213 | 0.001274 | +4.99% | – | pending | – | – | -1.68 |
| 2026-10-17 | oos | 0.001311 | 0.001375 | +4.91% | – | pending | – | – | -1.67 |
| 2026-10-16 | oos | 0.001335 | 0.001408 | +5.46% | – | pending | – | – | -1.66 |
| 2026-10-15 | oos | 0.001447 | 0.001523 | +5.26% | 0.0017 | +17.48% | 0.0847 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-14 | oos | 0.001505 | 0.001588 | +5.52% | 0.001688 | +12.16% | 0.0313 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-13 | oos | 0.001563 | 0.001651 | +5.65% | 0.001677 | +7.29% | 0.0174 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-12 | oos | 0.001742 | 0.001831 | +5.11% | 0.001597 | -8.32% | 0.1380 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-11 | oos | 0.002234 | 0.002292 | +2.58% | 0.001213 | -45.70% | 0.6160 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-10 | oos | 0.002289 | 0.002359 | +3.04% | 0.001311 | -42.74% | 0.5688 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-09 | oos | 0.002722 | 0.002753 | +1.15% | 0.001335 | -50.96% | 0.7111 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-08 | oos | 0.002247 | 0.002355 | +4.79% | 0.001447 | -35.60% | 0.4921 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-07 | oos | 0.002574 | 0.002668 | +3.63% | 0.001505 | -41.53% | 0.5516 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-06 | oos | 0.002262 | 0.002396 | +5.91% | 0.001563 | -30.90% | 0.3981 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-05 | oos | 0.002414 | 0.002558 | +5.97% | 0.001742 | -27.84% | 0.3364 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-04 | oos | 0.003086 | 0.003199 | +3.66% | 0.002234 | -27.61% | 0.3258 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-03 | oos | 0.003156 | 0.003264 | +3.43% | 0.002289 | -27.46% | 0.3329 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-02 | oos | 0.003975 | 0.00396 | -0.38% | 0.002722 | -31.52% | 0.3514 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-01 | oos | 0.003762 | 0.003772 | +0.27% | 0.002247 | -40.27% | 0.4802 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-30 | oos | 0.003846 | 0.003828 | -0.47% | 0.002574 | -33.07% | 0.3935 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-29 | oos | 0.003944 | 0.003892 | -1.31% | 0.002262 | -42.65% | 0.5652 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-28 | oos | 0.005021 | 0.004919 | -2.03% | 0.002414 | -51.92% | 0.7390 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-27 | oos | 0.005559 | 0.005443 | -2.08% | 0.003086 | -44.49% | 0.5914 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-26 | oos | 0.006251 | 0.00609 | -2.57% | 0.003156 | -49.51% | 0.6613 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-25 | oos | 0.007163 | 0.006888 | -3.84% | 0.003975 | -44.51% | 0.5546 | ✓ | 1.00 |