TOLLY
Tolly · Arc · gru_s2
- token id
- #737
- symbol
- TOLLY
- variant
- –
- chain
- Arc
- address
- 0xbc43ce8dec648ea298c4275559b81d6261c90b67
- cohort
- datapoint (mid-window listing)
- first bar
- 2026-09-16
- predictions
- 84
Track record at +1d
assessed
27
of 28 predictions shown
direction hit
51.9%
alpha space; 50% is a coin flip
MAE (alpha)
0.1084
mean absolute log-return error
mean pred / actual
+0.0007
actual -0.0500
History
| as of | split | anchor px | pred px | pred Δ | actual px | actual Δ | alpha err | hit | β90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | oos | 0.0017 | 0.001682 | -1.03% | – | pending | – | – | -1.65 |
| 2026-10-21 | oos | 0.001688 | 0.001672 | -0.93% | 0.0017 | +0.71% | 0.0202 | ✗ | -1.65 |
| 2026-10-20 | oos | 0.001677 | 0.001665 | -0.74% | 0.001688 | +0.66% | 0.0360 | ✗ | -1.70 |
| 2026-10-19 | oos | 0.001597 | 0.001588 | -0.55% | 0.001677 | +5.01% | 0.0784 | ✗ | -1.80 |
| 2026-10-18 | oos | 0.001213 | 0.001228 | +1.21% | 0.001597 | +31.66% | 0.2595 | ✓ | -1.68 |
| 2026-10-17 | oos | 0.001311 | 0.001328 | +1.26% | 0.001213 | -7.48% | 0.0774 | ✗ | -1.67 |
| 2026-10-16 | oos | 0.001335 | 0.001356 | +1.58% | 0.001311 | -1.80% | 0.0363 | ✗ | -1.66 |
| 2026-10-15 | oos | 0.001447 | 0.00147 | +1.62% | 0.001335 | -7.74% | 0.0890 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-14 | oos | 0.001505 | 0.001533 | +1.89% | 0.001447 | -3.85% | 0.0648 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-13 | oos | 0.001563 | 0.001596 | +2.08% | 0.001505 | -3.71% | 0.0398 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-12 | oos | 0.001742 | 0.001777 | +2.02% | 0.001563 | -10.28% | 0.1449 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-11 | oos | 0.002234 | 0.00224 | +0.25% | 0.001742 | -22.02% | 0.2278 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-10 | oos | 0.002289 | 0.002299 | +0.41% | 0.002234 | -2.42% | 0.0379 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-09 | oos | 0.002722 | 0.00269 | -1.17% | 0.002289 | -15.89% | 0.1656 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-08 | oos | 0.002247 | 0.00228 | +1.49% | 0.002722 | +21.14% | 0.1666 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-07 | oos | 0.002574 | 0.002561 | -0.51% | 0.002247 | -12.70% | 0.1116 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-06 | oos | 0.002262 | 0.002281 | +0.84% | 0.002574 | +13.79% | 0.1477 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-05 | oos | 0.002414 | 0.002425 | +0.47% | 0.002262 | -6.30% | 0.0673 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-04 | oos | 0.003086 | 0.003025 | -1.97% | 0.002414 | -21.78% | 0.2168 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-03 | oos | 0.003156 | 0.003114 | -1.34% | 0.003086 | -2.22% | 0.0295 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-02 | oos | 0.003975 | 0.003889 | -2.17% | 0.003156 | -20.60% | 0.2116 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-01 | oos | 0.003762 | 0.00372 | -1.11% | 0.003975 | +5.66% | 0.0703 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-30 | oos | 0.003846 | 0.003819 | -0.70% | 0.003762 | -2.18% | 0.0304 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-29 | oos | 0.003944 | 0.003927 | -0.44% | 0.003846 | -2.48% | 0.0198 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-28 | oos | 0.005021 | 0.004997 | -0.47% | 0.003944 | -21.45% | 0.2389 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-27 | oos | 0.005559 | 0.005544 | -0.27% | 0.005021 | -9.68% | 0.0871 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-26 | oos | 0.006251 | 0.006241 | -0.17% | 0.005559 | -11.07% | 0.1162 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-25 | oos | 0.007163 | 0.007133 | -0.42% | 0.006251 | -12.73% | 0.1358 | ✓ | 1.00 |