DUST

Dust Protocol · Ethereum · gru_s2

token id: #962
symbol: DUST
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0xb5b1b659da79a2507c27aad509f15b4874edc0cc
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2025-09-20
predictions: 501

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +1d

assessed

164

of 167 predictions shown

direction hit

56.1%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1210

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0120

actual -0.0319

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	1.9885	1.882	-5.36%	–	pending	–	–	1.00
2026-10-20	oos	1.8375	1.6754	-8.82%	1.9885	+8.22%	0.1743	✗	1.00
2026-10-19	oos	3.069	2.7768	-9.52%	1.8375	-40.13%	0.4263	✓	1.00
2026-10-18	oos	3.3675	2.9952	-11.06%	3.069	-8.86%	0.0264	✓	1.00
2026-10-17	oos	3.591	3.1743	-11.61%	3.3675	-6.22%	0.0514	✓	1.00
2026-10-16	oos	11.643	10.282	-11.69%	3.591	-69.16%	1.0505	✓	1.00
2026-10-15	oos	2.3095	2.0677	-10.47%	11.643	+404.14%	1.7359	✗	1.00
2026-10-14	oos	2.983	2.647	-11.27%	2.3095	-22.58%	0.1432	✓	1.00
2026-10-13	oos	4.08	3.5853	-12.13%	2.983	-26.89%	0.1653	✓	1.00
2026-10-12	oos	5.507	4.9055	-10.92%	4.08	-25.91%	0.2008	✓	1.00
2026-10-11	oos	9.143	8.2053	-10.26%	5.507	-39.77%	0.3753	✓	1.00
2026-10-10	oos	17.2505	15.8364	-8.20%	9.143	-47.00%	0.5585	✓	1.00
2026-10-09	oos	16.7145	14.9651	-10.47%	17.2505	+3.21%	0.1377	✗	1.00
2026-10-08	oos	17.1645	15.3886	-10.35%	16.7145	-2.62%	0.0723	✓	1.00
2026-10-07	oos	24.5085	22.149	-9.63%	17.1645	-29.97%	0.2358	✓	1.00
2026-10-06	oos	43.547	41.3289	-5.09%	24.5085	-43.72%	0.4957	✓	1.00
2026-10-05	oos	85.4585	82.8313	-3.07%	43.547	-49.04%	0.6405	✓	1.00
2026-03-05	oos	0.000375	0.000373476	-0.41%	–	pending	–	–	1.23
2026-03-04	oos	0.0003798	0.000376989	-0.74%	0.000375	-1.26%	0.0253	✗	1.22
2026-03-03	oos	0.0002495	0.000250867	+0.55%	0.0003798	+52.22%	0.3583	✓	0.91
2026-03-02	oos	0.000269	0.000270308	+0.49%	0.0002495	-7.25%	0.0735	✗	0.91
2026-03-01	oos	0.0003089	0.00030845	-0.15%	0.000269	-12.92%	0.1818	✓	0.99
2026-02-28	oos	0.0002702	0.000271319	+0.41%	0.0003089	+14.32%	0.1472	✓	0.97
2026-02-27	oos	0.000281	0.000281775	+0.28%	0.0002702	-3.84%	0.0583	✗	0.98
2026-02-26	oos	0.0003102	0.000310733	+0.17%	0.000281	-9.41%	0.0770	✗	0.96
2026-02-25	oos	0.0003015	0.000302282	+0.26%	0.0003102	+2.89%	0.0330	✓	0.97
2026-02-24	oos	0.0002788	0.000279211	+0.15%	0.0003015	+8.14%	0.0212	✓	0.94
2026-02-23	oos	0.0003029	0.0003029	+0.00%	0.0002788	-7.96%	0.0749	✗	0.92
2026-02-22	oos	0.0003044	0.000304989	+0.19%	0.0003029	-0.49%	0.0357	✓	0.94
2026-02-21	oos	0.000332	0.000331779	-0.07%	0.0003044	-8.31%	0.0814	✓	0.95
2026-02-20	oos	0.0003075	0.000307791	+0.09%	0.000332	+7.97%	0.0761	✓	0.91
2026-02-19	oos	0.0003268	0.000326133	-0.20%	0.0003075	-5.91%	0.0728	✓	0.93
2026-02-18	oos	0.0002994	0.000299393	-0.00%	0.0003268	+9.15%	0.0801	✗	0.90
2026-02-17	oos	0.0003045	0.000304505	+0.00%	0.0002994	-1.67%	0.0016	✗	0.98
2026-02-16	oos	0.000321	0.000320701	-0.09%	0.0003045	-5.14%	0.0314	✓	1.00
2026-02-15	oos	0.0003145	0.000314383	-0.04%	0.000321	+2.07%	0.0198	✗	1.06
2026-02-14	oos	0.0004106	0.000406848	-0.91%	0.0003145	-23.40%	0.2427	✓	1.02
2026-02-13	oos	0.0003676	0.00036534	-0.61%	0.0004106	+11.70%	0.1033	✗	0.96
2026-02-12	oos	0.0003237	0.000322784	-0.28%	0.0003676	+13.56%	0.0964	✗	0.87
2026-02-11	oos	0.0003279	0.000325983	-0.58%	0.0003237	-1.28%	0.0025	✓	0.78
2026-02-10	oos	0.0002921	0.000290951	-0.39%	0.0003279	+12.26%	0.1415	✗	0.84
2026-02-09	oos	0.0002267	0.000227784	+0.48%	0.0002921	+28.85%	0.2652	✓	0.88
2026-02-08	oos	0.0002387	0.000239112	+0.17%	0.0002267	-5.03%	0.0511	✗	0.89
2026-02-07	oos	0.0002066	0.000207739	+0.55%	0.0002387	+15.54%	0.1265	✓	0.84
2026-02-06	oos	0.0002125	0.000212859	+0.17%	0.0002066	-2.78%	0.0138	✗	0.87
2026-02-05	oos	0.0002125	0.000216276	+1.78%	0.0002125	+0.00%	0.1391	✗	1.05
2026-02-04	oos	0.0002217	0.000220552	-0.52%	0.0002125	-4.15%	0.2033	✗	1.60
2026-02-03	oos	0.0002649	0.000262453	-0.92%	0.0002217	-16.31%	0.1135	✓	1.54
2026-02-02	oos	0.0002687	0.000268613	-0.03%	0.0002649	-1.41%	0.0489	✗	1.61
2026-02-01	oos	0.0002536	0.000252977	-0.25%	0.0002687	+5.95%	0.0278	✗	1.43
2026-01-31	oos	0.0002719	0.000272028	+0.05%	0.0002536	-6.73%	0.0330	✗	1.65
2026-01-30	oos	0.0003096	0.000310843	+0.40%	0.0002719	-12.18%	0.0174	✗	1.73
2026-01-29	oos	0.0003448	0.000345798	+0.29%	0.0003096	-10.21%	0.1024	✗	1.71
2026-01-28	oos	0.0004135	0.000410647	-0.69%	0.0003448	-16.61%	0.0892	✓	1.60
2026-01-27	oos	0.0003523	0.000352453	+0.04%	0.0004135	+17.37%	0.1589	✓	1.59
2026-01-26	oos	0.0003453	0.000346337	+0.30%	0.0003523	+2.03%	0.0023	✓	1.51
2026-01-25	oos	0.0003455	0.000347418	+0.56%	0.0003453	-0.06%	0.0357	✗	1.53
2026-01-24	oos	0.0003931	0.00039205	-0.27%	0.0003455	-12.11%	0.0838	✓	1.49
2026-01-23	oos	0.0004106	0.000410189	-0.10%	0.0003931	-4.26%	0.0358	✓	1.54
2026-01-22	oos	0.0004048	0.000406351	+0.38%	0.0004106	+1.43%	0.0102	✓	1.54
2026-01-21	oos	0.0003609	0.000364144	+0.90%	0.0004048	+12.16%	0.1042	✓	1.49
2026-01-20	oos	0.0004058	0.00040835	+0.63%	0.0003609	-11.06%	0.1439	✗	1.72
2026-01-19	oos	0.0004472	0.000446515	-0.15%	0.0004058	-9.26%	0.0163	✓	1.69
2026-01-18	oos	0.0005101	0.000506843	-0.64%	0.0004472	-12.33%	0.1044	✓	1.80
2026-01-17	oos	0.000523	0.00051978	-0.62%	0.0005101	-2.47%	0.0078	✗	1.70
2026-01-16	oos	0.0005419	0.000535896	-1.11%	0.000523	-3.49%	0.0173	✓	1.70
2026-01-15	oos	0.0005259	0.000522481	-0.65%	0.0005419	+3.04%	0.0379	✗	1.66
2026-01-14	oos	0.000571	0.000565346	-0.99%	0.0005259	-7.90%	0.0488	✓	1.65
2026-01-13	oos	0.000582	0.000574774	-1.24%	0.000571	-1.89%	0.0326	✓	1.59
2026-01-12	oos	0.00055	0.000546457	-0.64%	0.000582	+5.82%	0.0210	✓	1.87
2026-01-11	oos	0.0006007	0.000595267	-0.90%	0.00055	-8.44%	0.0856	✓	1.88
2026-01-10	oos	0.0006509	0.00064486	-0.93%	0.0006007	-7.71%	0.0812	✓	1.86
2026-01-09	oos	0.0005548	0.000556186	+0.25%	0.0006509	+17.32%	0.1604	✓	2.04
2026-01-08	oos	0.0005809	0.000583112	+0.38%	0.0005548	-4.49%	0.0383	✗	2.04
2026-01-07	oos	0.0005789	0.000581705	+0.48%	0.0005809	+0.35%	0.0043	✓	2.04
2026-01-06	oos	0.0006551	0.00065711	+0.31%	0.0005789	-11.63%	0.0737	✗	2.01
2026-01-05	oos	0.0006891	0.00069069	+0.23%	0.0006551	-4.93%	0.0497	✗	2.01
2026-01-04	oos	0.0006673	0.00066919	+0.28%	0.0006891	+3.27%	0.0222	✗	2.01
2026-01-03	oos	0.0006284	0.000630703	+0.37%	0.0006673	+6.19%	0.0368	✓	1.99
2026-01-02	oos	0.0006276	0.000629952	+0.37%	0.0006284	+0.13%	0.0165	✗	1.99
2026-01-01	oos	0.0005885	0.000591372	+0.49%	0.0006276	+6.64%	0.0327	✓	1.96
2025-12-31	oos	0.0005725	0.000575478	+0.52%	0.0005885	+2.79%	0.0051	✓	1.95
2025-12-30	oos	0.0006205	0.000623093	+0.42%	0.0005725	-7.74%	0.0641	✗	2.02
2025-12-29	oos	0.0006005	0.000602905	+0.40%	0.0006205	+3.33%	0.0003	✓	1.94
2025-12-28	oos	0.0006155	0.00061764	+0.35%	0.0006005	-2.44%	0.0111	✗	1.95
2025-12-27	oos	0.0005888	0.000590983	+0.37%	0.0006155	+4.53%	0.0393	✓	1.68
2025-12-26	oos	0.0006277	0.000629411	+0.27%	0.0005888	-6.20%	0.0762	✗	1.62
2025-12-25	oos	0.0006123	0.000614042	+0.28%	0.0006277	+2.52%	0.0197	✓	1.62
2025-12-24	oos	0.0005917	0.000593632	+0.33%	0.0006123	+3.48%	0.0392	✓	1.65
2025-12-23	oos	0.0006153	0.000617461	+0.35%	0.0005917	-3.84%	0.0471	✗	2.18
2025-12-22	oos	0.0006817	0.000683653	+0.29%	0.0006153	-9.74%	0.0797	✗	2.00
2025-12-21	oos	0.000683	0.000685138	+0.31%	0.0006817	-0.19%	0.0032	✗	2.00
2025-12-20	oos	0.0006897	0.000692189	+0.36%	0.000683	-0.97%	0.0207	✗	2.04
2025-12-19	oos	0.0007056	0.000708124	+0.36%	0.0006897	-2.25%	0.0318	✗	2.06
2025-12-18	oos	0.0006154	0.000621392	+0.97%	0.0007056	+14.66%	0.0679	✓	1.95
2025-12-17	oos	0.0006245	0.000632862	+1.34%	0.0006154	-1.46%	0.0109	✓	1.96
2025-12-16	oos	0.0007402	0.000747871	+1.04%	0.0006245	-15.63%	0.1439	✗	1.92
2025-12-15	oos	0.000814	0.00082459	+1.30%	0.0007402	-9.07%	0.1403	✗	1.96
2025-12-14	oos	0.000885	0.000893833	+1.00%	0.000814	-8.02%	0.0541	✗	1.97
2025-12-13	oos	0.001043	0.001046	+0.28%	0.000885	-15.15%	0.1221	✗	1.92
2025-12-12	oos	0.001028	0.001036	+0.75%	0.001043	+1.46%	0.0075	✓	1.92
2025-12-11	oos	0.001098	0.001105	+0.65%	0.001028	-6.38%	0.0243	✗	1.94
2025-12-10	oos	0.001227	0.001233	+0.49%	0.001098	-10.51%	0.1267	✗	1.96
2025-12-09	oos	0.001322	0.001325	+0.26%	0.001227	-7.19%	0.0633	✗	1.95
2025-12-08	oos	0.001345	0.001348	+0.22%	0.001322	-1.71%	0.0630	✗	1.96
2025-12-07	oos	0.001314	0.001316	+0.18%	0.001345	+2.36%	0.0161	✓	1.95
2025-12-06	oos	0.001435	0.001435	+0.00%	0.001314	-8.43%	0.1131	✗	1.98
2025-12-05	oos	0.001481	0.00148	-0.08%	0.001435	-3.11%	0.0290	✓	1.98
2025-12-04	oos	0.0015	0.001498	-0.13%	0.001481	-1.27%	0.0509	✗	2.06
2025-12-03	oos	0.001578	0.001575	-0.20%	0.0015	-4.94%	0.0183	✓	2.07
2025-12-02	oos	0.001595	0.001591	-0.25%	0.001578	-1.07%	0.0565	✓	2.08
2025-12-01	oos	0.001584	0.001578	-0.36%	0.001595	+0.69%	0.1140	✓	2.20
2025-11-30	oos	0.001536	0.001532	-0.25%	0.001584	+3.12%	0.1479	✗	2.48
2025-11-29	oos	0.001557	0.001552	-0.33%	0.001536	-1.35%	0.0023	✓	2.48
2025-11-28	oos	0.001533	0.001528	-0.35%	0.001557	+1.57%	0.0211	✗	2.48
2025-11-27	oos	0.001598	0.00159	-0.48%	0.001533	-4.07%	0.0254	✓	2.48
2025-11-26	oos	0.001618	0.001608	-0.63%	0.001598	-1.24%	0.0291	✓	2.47
2025-11-25	oos	0.001625	0.001611	-0.89%	0.001618	-0.43%	0.0849	✓	2.53
2025-11-24	oos	0.001518	0.001507	-0.71%	0.001625	+7.05%	0.1028	✗	2.57
2025-11-23	oos	0.001477	0.001465	-0.84%	0.001518	+2.78%	0.0065	✓	2.54
2025-11-22	oos	0.001585	0.001565	-1.24%	0.001477	-6.81%	0.1233	✓	2.63
2025-11-21	oos	0.001778	0.001744	-1.91%	0.001585	-10.85%	0.0837	✓	2.63
2025-11-20	oos	0.0017	0.001663	-2.20%	0.001778	+4.59%	0.1134	✗	2.70
2025-11-19	oos	0.002039	0.001972	-3.26%	0.0017	-16.63%	0.0039	✓	2.76
2025-11-18	oos	0.002417	0.002294	-5.08%	0.002039	-15.64%	0.0751	✓	2.71
2025-11-17	oos	0.00163	0.001592	-2.35%	0.002417	+48.28%	0.3958	✗	2.49
2025-11-16	oos	0.001676	0.001631	-2.68%	0.00163	-2.74%	0.0569	✗	2.57
2025-11-15	oos	0.001291	0.001282	-0.73%	0.001676	+29.82%	0.3081	✗	2.77
2025-11-14	oos	0.001511	0.001484	-1.81%	0.001291	-14.56%	0.1702	✓	2.85
2025-11-13	oos	0.001375	0.001363	-0.86%	0.001511	+9.89%	0.2975	✗	3.69
2025-11-12	oos	0.001551	0.001543	-0.54%	0.001375	-11.35%	0.0402	✓	3.72
2025-11-11	oos	0.001479	0.001486	+0.50%	0.001551	+4.87%	0.0940	✓	3.84
2025-11-10	oos	0.001588	0.001594	+0.40%	0.001479	-6.86%	0.0394	✓	4.03
2025-11-09	oos	0.001697	0.001702	+0.28%	0.001588	-6.42%	0.1186	✗	4.05
2025-11-08	oos	0.001556	0.001562	+0.42%	0.001697	+9.06%	0.0094	✗	3.95
2025-11-07	oos	0.001944	0.001937	-0.38%	0.001556	-19.96%	0.1810	✓	3.89
2025-11-06	oos	0.001653	0.001653	+0.01%	0.001944	+17.60%	0.0902	✓	3.68
2025-11-05	oos	0.001835	0.001829	-0.31%	0.001653	-9.92%	0.0060	✓	3.80
2025-11-04	oos	0.001752	0.001742	-0.60%	0.001835	+4.74%	0.0348	✓	3.73
2025-11-03	oos	0.001653	0.001649	-0.22%	0.001752	+5.99%	0.3040	✗	4.98
2025-11-02	oos	0.002404	0.002358	-1.90%	0.001653	-31.24%	0.1845	✓	4.66
2025-11-01	oos	0.00152	0.00152	-0.02%	0.002404	+58.16%	0.4388	✗	4.51
2025-10-31	oos	0.001665	0.001663	-0.14%	0.00152	-8.71%	0.1101	✓	4.51
2025-10-30	oos	0.001694	0.00169	-0.21%	0.001665	-1.71%	0.0663	✓	4.47
2025-10-29	oos	0.001772	0.001767	-0.31%	0.001694	-4.40%	0.0320	✗	4.68
2025-10-28	oos	0.001665	0.001661	-0.26%	0.001772	+6.43%	0.0907	✗	1.00
2025-10-27	oos	0.001847	0.001837	-0.53%	0.001665	-9.85%	0.0881	✓	1.00
2025-10-26	oos	0.002006	0.00199	-0.82%	0.001847	-7.93%	0.0703	✓	1.00
2025-10-25	oos	0.001818	0.001808	-0.53%	0.002006	+10.34%	0.0782	✗	1.00
2025-10-24	oos	0.001771	0.00176	-0.60%	0.001818	+2.65%	0.0266	✗	1.00
2025-10-23	oos	0.00206	0.002031	-1.40%	0.001771	-14.03%	0.1454	✓	1.00
2025-10-22	oos	0.00154	0.001532	-0.51%	0.00206	+33.77%	0.2728	✗	1.00
2025-10-21	oos	0.001366	0.001368	+0.14%	0.00154	+12.74%	0.1257	✓	1.00
2025-10-20	oos	0.001893	0.001895	+0.12%	0.001366	-27.84%	0.3074	✗	1.00
2025-10-19	oos	0.00229	0.002276	-0.60%	0.001893	-17.34%	0.2016	✓	1.00
2025-10-18	oos	0.002264	0.00226	-0.18%	0.00229	+1.15%	0.0004	✓	1.00
2025-10-17	oos	0.002704	0.002696	-0.31%	0.002264	-16.27%	0.1815	✓	1.00
2025-10-16	oos	0.002872	0.002861	-0.37%	0.002704	-5.85%	0.0404	✓	1.00
2025-10-15	oos	0.002684	0.00267	-0.53%	0.002872	+7.00%	0.0968	✗	1.00
2025-10-14	oos	0.004793	0.00474	-1.10%	0.002684	-44.00%	0.5485	✓	1.00
2025-10-13	oos	0.005014	0.004933	-1.62%	0.004793	-4.41%	0.0094	✓	1.00
2025-10-12	oos	0.006481	0.006347	-2.06%	0.005014	-22.64%	0.2376	✓	1.00
2025-10-11	oos	0.005207	0.005125	-1.57%	0.006481	+24.47%	0.1966	✗	1.00
2025-10-02	oos	0.001539	0.0015	-2.54%	–	pending	–	–	1.00
2025-10-01	oos	0.001324	0.001316	-0.58%	0.001539	+16.24%	0.1399	✗	1.00
2025-09-30	oos	0.001319	0.001327	+0.62%	0.001324	+0.38%	0.0419	✗	1.00
2025-09-29	oos	0.001722	0.00172	-0.12%	0.001319	-23.40%	0.2628	✓	1.00