ASTEROID1

? · · gru_s2

token id: #794
symbol: ASTEROID1
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-04-25
predictions: 513

Track record at +7d

assessed

164

of 171 predictions shown

direction hit

52.4%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.2482

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0035

actual -0.0929

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.001374	0.001372	-0.15%	–	pending	–	–	1.58
2026-10-20	oos	0.001259	0.001259	+0.02%	–	pending	–	–	1.54
2026-10-19	oos	0.001263	0.001257	-0.48%	–	pending	–	–	1.57
2026-10-18	oos	0.001148	0.001143	-0.46%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-17	oos	0.001229	0.001217	-1.05%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-16	oos	0.001277	0.00126	-1.30%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-15	oos	0.001258	0.001246	-0.97%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-14	oos	0.001084	0.001089	+0.54%	0.001374	+26.81%	0.2091	✓	1.68
2026-10-13	oos	0.001144	0.001152	+0.74%	0.001259	+10.01%	0.0913	✓	1.65
2026-10-12	oos	0.001126	0.001143	+1.44%	0.001263	+12.12%	0.0981	✓	1.67
2026-10-11	oos	0.001367	0.001372	+0.44%	0.001148	-15.95%	0.1459	✗	1.60
2026-10-10	oos	0.001357	0.001367	+0.76%	0.001229	-9.40%	0.0750	✗	1.67
2026-10-09	oos	0.00123	0.001259	+2.33%	0.001277	+3.78%	0.0355	✓	1.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.001355	0.001377	+1.67%	0.001258	-7.12%	0.0993	✗	1.67
2026-10-07	oos	0.001445	0.001453	+0.52%	0.001084	-25.04%	0.2591	✗	1.65
2026-10-06	oos	0.001564	0.001546	-1.13%	0.001144	-26.85%	0.2537	✓	1.65
2026-10-05	oos	0.001631	0.00161	-1.33%	0.001126	-30.95%	0.2758	✓	1.70
2026-10-04	oos	0.001638	0.00162	-1.07%	0.001367	-16.55%	0.1113	✓	1.77
2026-10-03	oos	0.001698	0.001673	-1.49%	0.001357	-20.08%	0.1698	✓	1.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.001759	0.001727	-1.84%	0.00123	-30.07%	0.2971	✓	1.79
2026-10-01	oos	0.001888	0.001848	-2.13%	0.001355	-28.26%	0.2443	✓	1.75
2026-09-30	oos	0.001874	0.001838	-1.90%	0.001445	-22.87%	0.2344	✓	1.81
2026-09-29	oos	0.001798	0.001775	-1.29%	0.001564	-13.01%	0.1647	✓	1.70
2026-09-28	oos	0.001702	0.001693	-0.53%	0.001631	-4.14%	0.0826	✓	1.68
2026-09-27	oos	0.001905	0.001899	-0.30%	0.001638	-14.04%	0.1907	✓	1.77
2026-09-26	oos	0.001983	0.001982	-0.03%	0.001698	-14.37%	0.1616	✓	1.76
2026-09-25	oos	0.002018	0.00202	+0.10%	0.001759	-12.83%	0.1471	✗	1.78
2026-09-24	oos	0.002258	0.002251	-0.33%	0.001888	-16.39%	0.1853	✓	1.76
2026-09-23	oos	0.001934	0.001939	+0.28%	0.001874	-3.10%	0.0168	✗	1.78
2026-09-22	oos	0.002158	0.002132	-1.22%	0.001798	-16.70%	0.1167	✓	1.79
2026-09-21	oos	0.001744	0.00175	+0.33%	0.001702	-2.41%	0.0398	✓	1.83
2026-09-20	oos	0.0015	0.00151	+0.67%	0.001905	+27.00%	0.1602	✓	1.81
2026-09-19	oos	0.001787	0.001786	-0.03%	0.001983	+10.97%	0.0361	✗	1.78
2026-09-18	oos	0.001831	0.001825	-0.32%	0.002018	+10.21%	0.0296	✗	1.82
2026-09-17	oos	0.001605	0.001608	+0.18%	0.002258	+40.69%	0.1661	✓	1.73
2026-09-16	oos	0.001692	0.001696	+0.26%	0.001934	+14.30%	0.0430	✗	1.70
2026-09-15	oos	0.001676	0.001697	+1.23%	0.002158	+28.79%	0.0379	✓	1.54
2026-09-14	oos	0.001803	0.001801	-0.09%	0.001744	-3.25%	0.1834	✓	1.48
2026-09-13	oos	0.001903	0.00191	+0.36%	0.0015	-21.18%	0.3257	✗	1.52
2026-09-12	oos	0.001828	0.001851	+1.27%	0.001787	-2.24%	0.1137	✗	1.56
2026-09-11	oos	0.001956	0.001979	+1.18%	0.001831	-6.39%	0.1495	✗	1.55
2026-09-10	oos	0.002041	0.002075	+1.68%	0.001605	-21.34%	0.2529	✗	1.58
2026-09-09	oos	0.002186	0.0022	+0.65%	0.001692	-22.60%	0.2189	✗	1.58
2026-09-08	oos	0.00224	0.002258	+0.81%	0.001676	-25.16%	0.2272	✗	1.90
2026-09-07	oos	0.002308	0.00233	+0.94%	0.001803	-21.90%	0.2346	✗	1.88
2026-09-06	oos	0.002546	0.002563	+0.67%	0.001903	-25.26%	0.2089	✗	1.97
2026-09-05	oos	0.002485	0.002502	+0.69%	0.001828	-26.42%	0.2508	✗	1.92
2026-09-04	oos	0.003024	0.002998	-0.88%	0.001956	-35.33%	0.3668	✓	1.91
2026-09-03	oos	0.003109	0.003062	-1.53%	0.002041	-34.38%	0.2898	✓	1.94
2026-09-02	oos	0.002326	0.002341	+0.63%	0.002186	-6.02%	0.0914	✗	1.84
2026-09-01	oos	0.002382	0.00238	-0.06%	0.00224	-5.98%	0.0860	✓	1.85
2026-08-31	oos	0.002634	0.002613	-0.80%	0.002308	-12.38%	0.1358	✓	1.74
2026-08-30	oos	0.002947	0.002907	-1.35%	0.002546	-13.61%	0.1902	✓	1.70
2026-08-29	oos	0.002557	0.002535	-0.87%	0.002485	-2.84%	0.0554	✓	1.75
2026-08-28	oos	0.002101	0.002097	-0.18%	0.003024	+43.96%	0.3257	✗	1.74
2026-08-27	oos	0.002319	0.002325	+0.24%	0.003109	+34.09%	0.2701	✓	1.70
2026-08-26	oos	0.002166	0.002171	+0.24%	0.002326	+7.39%	0.1057	✓	1.68
2026-08-25	oos	0.001937	0.001945	+0.43%	0.002382	+22.97%	0.2270	✓	1.69
2026-08-24	oos	0.00227	0.002279	+0.40%	0.002634	+16.04%	0.1526	✓	1.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.00236	0.002367	+0.30%	0.002947	+24.87%	0.2204	✓	1.55
2026-08-22	oos	0.00264	0.002643	+0.10%	0.002557	-3.14%	0.0571	✗	1.59
2026-08-21	oos	0.002582	0.002558	-0.92%	0.002101	-18.63%	0.1869	✓	1.61
2026-08-20	oos	0.003052	0.003033	-0.62%	0.002319	-24.02%	0.4754	✓	2.18
2026-08-19	oos	0.002289	0.002257	-1.38%	0.002166	-5.37%	0.2772	✓	1.80
2026-08-18	oos	0.00195	0.001878	-3.71%	0.001937	-0.67%	0.2977	✓	1.69
2026-08-17	oos	0.001986	0.001924	-3.14%	0.00227	+14.30%	0.1706	✓	1.66
2026-08-16	oos	0.001873	0.001847	-1.36%	0.00236	+26.00%	0.1031	✓	1.64
2026-08-15	oos	0.001955	0.001931	-1.23%	0.00264	+35.04%	0.0168	✓	1.64
2026-08-14	oos	0.002087	0.002059	-1.36%	0.002582	+23.72%	0.1331	✓	1.65
2026-08-13	oos	0.00194	0.001921	-0.97%	0.003052	+57.32%	0.2298	✗	1.66
2026-08-12	oos	0.002211	0.00217	-1.86%	0.002289	+3.53%	0.0969	✓	1.69
2026-08-11	oos	0.002031	0.001999	-1.60%	0.00195	-3.99%	0.0547	✓	1.68
2026-08-10	oos	0.001751	0.001734	-0.94%	0.001986	+13.42%	0.1204	✗	1.71
2026-08-09	oos	0.001717	0.001697	-1.14%	0.001873	+9.09%	0.1515	✗	1.69
2026-08-08	oos	0.001589	0.001576	-0.84%	0.001955	+23.03%	0.2648	✗	1.66
2026-08-07	oos	0.001601	0.001587	-0.91%	0.002087	+30.36%	0.3194	✗	1.51
2026-08-06	oos	0.002119	0.002072	-2.23%	0.00194	-8.45%	0.0444	✓	1.61
2026-08-05	oos	0.001998	0.001948	-2.51%	0.002211	+10.66%	0.1561	✗	1.58
2026-08-04	oos	0.002382	0.002269	-4.76%	0.002031	-14.74%	0.0983	✓	1.51
2026-08-03	oos	0.001356	0.001345	-0.82%	0.001751	+29.13%	0.2540	✗	1.41
2026-08-02	oos	0.001354	0.001343	-0.81%	0.001717	+26.81%	0.2159	✗	1.41
2026-08-01	oos	0.001573	0.001541	-2.06%	0.001589	+1.02%	0.0211	✓	1.55
2026-07-31	oos	0.001676	0.001629	-2.80%	0.001601	-4.47%	0.0674	✓	1.55
2026-07-30	oos	0.001696	0.001621	-4.42%	0.002119	+24.94%	0.2783	✗	1.48
2026-07-29	oos	0.001747	0.001676	-4.05%	0.001998	+14.37%	0.1591	✗	1.50
2026-07-28	oos	0.001803	0.001731	-3.97%	0.002382	+32.11%	0.3143	✗	1.45
2026-07-27	oos	0.002076	0.001977	-4.77%	0.001356	-34.68%	0.3719	✓	1.44
2026-07-26	oos	0.002034	0.001955	-3.89%	0.001354	-33.43%	0.3247	✓	1.49
2026-07-25	oos	0.002304	0.002172	-5.72%	0.001573	-31.73%	0.2847	✓	1.58
2026-07-24	oos	0.002315	0.002155	-6.93%	0.001676	-27.60%	0.2235	✓	1.40
2026-07-23	oos	0.001482	0.001448	-2.29%	0.001696	+14.44%	0.1663	✗	1.61
2026-07-22	oos	0.00136	0.001338	-1.59%	0.001747	+28.46%	0.3227	✗	1.67
2026-07-21	oos	0.001551	0.0015	-3.31%	0.001803	+16.25%	0.2518	✗	1.65
2026-07-20	oos	0.001198	0.001187	-0.92%	0.002076	+73.29%	0.5937	✗	1.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.001223	0.001205	-1.49%	0.002034	+66.31%	0.5088	✗	1.47
2026-07-18	oos	0.001349	0.001322	-2.03%	0.002304	+70.79%	0.5672	✗	1.47
2026-07-17	oos	0.001424	0.001391	-2.29%	0.002315	+62.57%	0.5047	✗	1.51
2026-07-16	oos	0.001041	0.001056	+1.43%	0.001482	+42.36%	0.3100	✓	1.46
2026-07-15	oos	0.001046	0.001067	+1.99%	0.00136	+30.02%	0.2119	✓	1.47
2026-07-14	oos	0.001158	0.001185	+2.32%	0.001551	+33.94%	0.2351	✓	1.47
2026-07-13	oos	0.001046	0.001072	+2.52%	0.001198	+14.53%	0.0478	✓	1.36
2026-07-12	oos	0.001205	0.001237	+2.66%	0.001223	+1.49%	0.0304	✗	1.29
2026-07-11	oos	0.001323	0.001349	+1.95%	0.001349	+1.97%	0.0205	✗	1.30
2026-07-10	oos	0.001144	0.001178	+3.00%	0.001424	+24.48%	0.1942	✓	1.32
2026-07-09	oos	0.001093	0.001127	+3.15%	0.001041	-4.76%	0.0918	✗	1.28
2026-07-08	oos	0.001003	0.001038	+3.53%	0.001046	+4.29%	0.0404	✗	1.22
2026-07-07	oos	0.001139	0.001171	+2.85%	0.001158	+1.67%	0.0420	✗	1.17
2026-07-06	oos	0.001392	0.00142	+2.04%	0.001046	-24.86%	0.2752	✗	1.12
2026-07-05	oos	0.001462	0.001489	+1.82%	0.001205	-17.58%	0.2142	✗	1.13
2026-07-04	oos	0.001537	0.001562	+1.64%	0.001323	-13.92%	0.1787	✗	1.15
2026-07-03	oos	0.001855	0.001872	+0.90%	0.001144	-38.33%	0.5237	✗	1.24
2026-07-02	oos	0.001555	0.001602	+3.03%	0.001093	-29.71%	0.4121	✗	1.09
2026-07-01	oos	0.001815	0.00189	+4.14%	0.001003	-44.74%	0.6817	✗	1.29
2026-06-30	oos	0.001818	0.00194	+6.73%	0.001139	-37.35%	0.6358	✗	1.31
2026-06-29	oos	0.002226	0.002336	+4.94%	0.001392	-37.47%	0.5888	✗	1.15
2026-06-28	oos	0.002274	0.002405	+5.77%	0.001462	-35.71%	0.5754	✗	1.16
2026-06-27	oos	0.002491	0.002587	+3.87%	0.001537	-38.30%	0.5798	✗	1.15
2026-06-26	oos	0.002527	0.002627	+3.96%	0.001855	-26.59%	0.3953	✗	1.15
2026-06-25	oos	0.002311	0.002419	+4.68%	0.001555	-32.71%	0.4745	✗	1.11
2026-06-24	oos	0.002585	0.002676	+3.52%	0.001815	-29.79%	0.3705	✗	1.05
2026-06-23	oos	0.002713	0.00278	+2.48%	0.001818	-32.99%	0.3536	✗	1.05
2026-06-22	oos	0.003108	0.003148	+1.28%	0.002226	-28.38%	0.2877	✗	0.96
2026-06-21	oos	0.003271	0.003304	+1.02%	0.002274	-30.48%	0.3125	✗	1.00
2026-06-20	oos	0.003663	0.00368	+0.46%	0.002491	-32.00%	0.3247	✗	0.95
2026-06-19	oos	0.003814	0.003827	+0.34%	0.002527	-33.74%	0.3601	✗	0.98
2026-06-18	oos	0.004509	0.004478	-0.69%	0.002311	-48.75%	0.6051	✓	1.09
2026-06-17	oos	0.003947	0.003945	-0.06%	0.002585	-34.51%	0.3524	✓	1.27
2026-06-16	oos	0.003759	0.003757	-0.05%	0.002713	-27.83%	0.2636	✓	1.34
2026-06-15	oos	0.003974	0.003958	-0.39%	0.003108	-21.79%	0.1945	✓	1.33
2026-06-14	oos	0.003552	0.003548	-0.11%	0.003271	-7.91%	0.0333	✓	1.25
2026-06-13	oos	0.003566	0.003557	-0.24%	0.003663	+2.72%	0.0334	✗	1.27
2026-06-12	oos	0.003336	0.003334	-0.07%	0.003814	+14.33%	0.1358	✗	1.21
2026-06-11	oos	0.004303	0.004203	-2.33%	0.004509	+4.79%	0.0840	✗	1.26
2026-06-10	oos	0.002921	0.002946	+0.87%	0.003947	+35.12%	0.2721	✓	0.43
2026-06-09	oos	0.002752	0.002778	+0.98%	0.003759	+36.62%	0.2763	✓	0.42
2026-06-08	oos	0.0034	0.003329	-2.08%	0.003974	+16.88%	0.1656	✗	0.23
2026-06-07	oos	0.002709	0.00269	-0.71%	0.003552	+31.12%	0.2700	✗	0.21
2026-06-06	oos	0.002536	0.002539	+0.12%	0.003566	+40.62%	0.3427	✓	-0.05
2026-06-05	oos	0.00276	0.002704	-2.03%	0.003336	+20.87%	0.2117	✗	-0.04
2026-06-04	oos	0.003442	0.003263	-5.21%	0.004303	+25.01%	0.2743	✗	-0.64
2026-06-03	oos	0.003874	0.00365	-5.78%	0.002921	-24.60%	0.2491	✓	-0.64
2026-06-02	oos	0.003912	0.003876	-0.92%	0.002752	-29.67%	0.3946	✓	-0.67
2026-06-01	oos	0.004258	0.004284	+0.62%	0.0034	-20.15%	0.4293	✗	-1.61
2026-05-31	oos	0.00464	0.004651	+0.24%	0.002709	-41.62%	0.8609	✗	-2.13
2026-05-30	oos	0.005079	0.005059	-0.39%	0.002536	-50.07%	1.1035	✓	-2.14
2026-05-29	oos	0.005568	0.005508	-1.07%	0.00276	-50.43%	1.0732	✓	-2.08
2026-05-28	oos	0.005328	0.005287	-0.76%	0.003442	-35.40%	0.7228	✓	-2.07
2026-05-27	oos	0.006092	0.005963	-2.11%	0.003874	-36.41%	0.7707	✓	-2.28
2026-05-26	oos	0.00445	0.004519	+1.55%	0.003912	-12.09%	0.3193	✗	-1.36
2026-05-25	oos	0.00509	0.005096	+0.12%	0.004258	-16.35%	0.3240	✗	-1.81
2026-05-24	oos	0.004153	0.004265	+2.69%	0.00464	+11.73%	0.1295	✓	1.00
2026-05-23	oos	0.00441	0.004493	+1.88%	0.005079	+15.17%	0.1609	✓	1.00
2026-05-22	oos	0.004059	0.004185	+3.10%	0.005568	+37.18%	0.3135	✓	1.00
2026-05-21	oos	0.003775	0.003969	+5.13%	0.005328	+41.14%	0.3480	✓	1.00
2026-05-20	oos	0.003886	0.004096	+5.41%	0.006092	+56.77%	0.4385	✓	1.00
2026-05-19	oos	0.004278	0.004461	+4.27%	0.00445	+4.02%	0.0100	✓	1.00
2026-05-18	oos	0.005165	0.005258	+1.79%	0.00509	-1.45%	0.0363	✗	1.00
2026-05-17	oos	0.005415	0.005466	+0.94%	0.004153	-23.31%	0.2691	✗	1.00
2026-05-16	oos	0.00561	0.005603	-0.13%	0.00441	-21.39%	0.2206	✓	1.00
2026-05-15	oos	0.005628	0.005561	-1.19%	0.004059	-27.88%	0.2681	✓	1.00
2026-05-14	oos	0.006103	0.005876	-3.72%	0.003775	-38.15%	0.3979	✓	1.00
2026-05-13	oos	0.005994	0.005848	-2.43%	0.003886	-35.17%	0.3856	✓	1.00
2026-05-12	oos	0.006296	0.006055	-3.83%	0.004278	-32.05%	0.3001	✓	1.00
2026-05-11	oos	0.005912	0.005686	-3.82%	0.005165	-12.64%	0.0359	✓	1.00
2026-05-10	oos	0.005016	0.004859	-3.13%	0.005415	+7.95%	0.1684	✗	1.00
2026-05-09	oos	0.006054	0.005854	-3.31%	0.00561	-7.33%	0.0104	✓	1.00
2026-05-08	oos	0.006363	0.006127	-3.71%	0.005628	-11.55%	0.0707	✓	1.00
2026-05-07	oos	0.008334	0.007856	-5.74%	0.006103	-26.77%	0.2658	✓	1.00
2026-05-06	oos	0.006596	0.006127	-7.11%	0.005994	-9.13%	0.0047	✓	1.00
2026-05-05	oos	0.004356	0.004038	-7.30%	0.006296	+44.54%	0.4494	✗	1.00
2026-05-04	oos	0.004281	0.004065	-5.04%	0.005912	+38.10%	0.3513	✗	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.