ASTEROID1

? · · gru_s2

token id: #794
symbol: ASTEROID1
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-04-25
predictions: 513

Track record at +30d

assessed

141

of 171 predictions shown

direction hit

78.7%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.4791

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0215

actual -0.3451

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.001374	0.00136	-1.00%	–	pending	–	–	1.58
2026-10-20	oos	0.001259	0.001246	-1.01%	–	pending	–	–	1.54
2026-10-19	oos	0.001263	0.001238	-2.00%	–	pending	–	–	1.57
2026-10-18	oos	0.001148	0.001115	-2.90%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-17	oos	0.001229	0.001179	-4.11%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-16	oos	0.001277	0.001226	-3.95%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-15	oos	0.001258	0.001221	-2.92%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-14	oos	0.001084	0.001057	-2.47%	–	pending	–	–	1.68
2026-10-13	oos	0.001144	0.001123	-1.84%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-12	oos	0.001126	0.001112	-1.28%	–	pending	–	–	1.67
2026-10-11	oos	0.001367	0.001346	-1.47%	–	pending	–	–	1.60
2026-10-10	oos	0.001357	0.00134	-1.22%	–	pending	–	–	1.67
2026-10-09	oos	0.00123	0.001227	-0.22%	–	pending	–	–	1.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.001355	0.001348	-0.49%	–	pending	–	–	1.67
2026-10-07	oos	0.001445	0.001432	-0.97%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-06	oos	0.001564	0.001527	-2.36%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-05	oos	0.001631	0.001583	-2.94%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-04	oos	0.001638	0.001604	-2.03%	–	pending	–	–	1.77
2026-10-03	oos	0.001698	0.001653	-2.65%	–	pending	–	–	1.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.001759	0.00171	-2.78%	–	pending	–	–	1.79
2026-10-01	oos	0.001888	0.001829	-3.10%	–	pending	–	–	1.75
2026-09-30	oos	0.001874	0.001812	-3.28%	–	pending	–	–	1.81
2026-09-29	oos	0.001798	0.001748	-2.81%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-09-28	oos	0.001702	0.001663	-2.28%	–	pending	–	–	1.68
2026-09-27	oos	0.001905	0.001849	-2.95%	–	pending	–	–	1.77
2026-09-26	oos	0.001983	0.001921	-3.11%	–	pending	–	–	1.76
2026-09-25	oos	0.002018	0.001952	-3.28%	–	pending	–	–	1.78
2026-09-24	oos	0.002258	0.002167	-4.01%	–	pending	–	–	1.76
2026-09-23	oos	0.001934	0.001882	-2.67%	–	pending	–	–	1.78
2026-09-22	oos	0.002158	0.002097	-2.86%	–	pending	–	–	1.79
2026-09-21	oos	0.001744	0.001713	-1.80%	0.001374	-21.22%	0.1361	✓	1.83
2026-09-20	oos	0.0015	0.001452	-3.19%	0.001259	-16.10%	0.1823	✓	1.81
2026-09-19	oos	0.001787	0.001721	-3.68%	0.001263	-29.32%	0.3227	✓	1.78
2026-09-18	oos	0.001831	0.001756	-4.11%	0.001148	-37.27%	0.4497	✓	1.82
2026-09-17	oos	0.001605	0.001532	-4.55%	0.001229	-23.40%	0.3306	✓	1.73
2026-09-16	oos	0.001692	0.001609	-4.93%	0.001277	-24.56%	0.3464	✓	1.70
2026-09-15	oos	0.001676	0.001603	-4.38%	0.001258	-24.94%	0.3702	✓	1.54
2026-09-14	oos	0.001803	0.001701	-5.64%	0.001084	-39.89%	0.5137	✓	1.48
2026-09-13	oos	0.001903	0.001795	-5.70%	0.001144	-39.88%	0.5705	✓	1.52
2026-09-12	oos	0.001828	0.001735	-5.09%	0.001126	-38.38%	0.5199	✓	1.56
2026-09-11	oos	0.001956	0.001855	-5.18%	0.001367	-30.14%	0.4300	✓	1.55
2026-09-10	oos	0.002041	0.001949	-4.46%	0.001357	-33.50%	0.4884	✓	1.58
2026-09-09	oos	0.002186	0.002069	-5.37%	0.00123	-43.73%	0.6035	✓	1.58
2026-09-08	oos	0.00224	0.002127	-5.02%	0.001355	-39.52%	0.5284	✓	1.90
2026-09-07	oos	0.002308	0.002206	-4.42%	0.001445	-37.37%	0.5198	✓	1.88
2026-09-06	oos	0.002546	0.002445	-3.95%	0.001564	-38.57%	0.5706	✓	1.97
2026-09-05	oos	0.002485	0.002388	-3.88%	0.001631	-34.33%	0.5185	✓	1.92
2026-09-04	oos	0.003024	0.002847	-5.88%	0.001638	-45.86%	0.7104	✓	1.91
2026-09-03	oos	0.003109	0.002921	-6.06%	0.001698	-45.39%	0.6236	✓	1.94
2026-09-02	oos	0.002326	0.002238	-3.78%	0.001759	-24.38%	0.4043	✓	1.84
2026-09-01	oos	0.002382	0.002281	-4.22%	0.001888	-20.74%	0.3594	✓	1.85
2026-08-31	oos	0.002634	0.00252	-4.34%	0.001874	-28.85%	0.4029	✓	1.74
2026-08-30	oos	0.002947	0.002788	-5.41%	0.001798	-38.99%	0.5645	✓	1.70
2026-08-29	oos	0.002557	0.002453	-4.08%	0.001702	-33.44%	0.4785	✓	1.75
2026-08-28	oos	0.002101	0.00204	-2.91%	0.001905	-9.33%	0.2102	✓	1.74
2026-08-27	oos	0.002319	0.002273	-1.96%	0.001983	-14.49%	0.2222	✓	1.70
2026-08-26	oos	0.002166	0.002118	-2.22%	0.002018	-6.83%	0.1525	✓	1.68
2026-08-25	oos	0.001937	0.001906	-1.61%	0.002258	+16.57%	0.0480	✗	1.69
2026-08-24	oos	0.00227	0.002238	-1.42%	0.001934	-14.80%	0.2441	✓	1.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.00236	0.002325	-1.48%	0.002158	-8.54%	0.2348	✓	1.55
2026-08-22	oos	0.00264	0.002609	-1.18%	0.001744	-33.94%	0.5889	✓	1.59
2026-08-21	oos	0.002582	0.002577	-0.21%	0.0015	-41.91%	0.5982	✓	1.61
2026-08-20	oos	0.003052	0.002949	-3.37%	0.001787	-41.45%	0.7340	✓	2.18
2026-08-19	oos	0.002289	0.002157	-5.77%	0.001831	-20.01%	0.4413	✓	1.80
2026-08-18	oos	0.00195	0.001854	-4.93%	0.001605	-17.69%	0.4253	✓	1.69
2026-08-17	oos	0.001986	0.001884	-5.16%	0.001692	-14.80%	0.3828	✓	1.66
2026-08-16	oos	0.001873	0.001797	-4.04%	0.001676	-10.52%	0.3720	✓	1.64
2026-08-15	oos	0.001955	0.001874	-4.17%	0.001803	-7.80%	0.3919	✓	1.64
2026-08-14	oos	0.002087	0.001995	-4.42%	0.001903	-8.82%	0.3742	✓	1.65
2026-08-13	oos	0.00194	0.001864	-3.94%	0.001828	-5.77%	0.3460	✓	1.66
2026-08-12	oos	0.002211	0.002104	-4.83%	0.001956	-11.53%	0.4064	✓	1.69
2026-08-11	oos	0.002031	0.001943	-4.31%	0.002041	+0.47%	0.2642	✓	1.68
2026-08-10	oos	0.001751	0.001694	-3.23%	0.002186	+24.84%	0.0914	✓	1.71
2026-08-09	oos	0.001717	0.00166	-3.33%	0.00224	+30.43%	0.0213	✓	1.69
2026-08-08	oos	0.001589	0.001542	-2.94%	0.002308	+45.25%	0.0750	✗	1.66
2026-08-07	oos	0.001601	0.001548	-3.28%	0.002546	+59.03%	0.1750	✗	1.51
2026-08-06	oos	0.002119	0.002007	-5.27%	0.002485	+17.25%	0.1362	✓	1.61
2026-08-05	oos	0.001998	0.001891	-5.38%	0.003024	+51.38%	0.1392	✗	1.58
2026-08-04	oos	0.002382	0.00218	-8.50%	0.003109	+30.54%	0.0030	✓	1.51
2026-08-03	oos	0.001356	0.001326	-2.25%	0.002326	+71.53%	0.2839	✗	1.41
2026-08-02	oos	0.001354	0.00133	-1.78%	0.002382	+75.92%	0.3027	✗	1.41
2026-08-01	oos	0.001573	0.001519	-3.43%	0.002634	+67.45%	0.2030	✗	1.55
2026-07-31	oos	0.001676	0.001614	-3.70%	0.002947	+75.84%	0.2737	✗	1.55
2026-07-30	oos	0.001696	0.001637	-3.48%	0.002557	+50.77%	0.1663	✗	1.48
2026-07-29	oos	0.001747	0.00168	-3.85%	0.002101	+20.26%	0.0721	✓	1.50
2026-07-28	oos	0.001803	0.001727	-4.22%	0.002319	+28.62%	0.0382	✓	1.45
2026-07-27	oos	0.002076	0.00197	-5.09%	0.002166	+4.34%	0.2152	✓	1.44
2026-07-26	oos	0.002034	0.00195	-4.14%	0.001937	-4.77%	0.2801	✓	1.49
2026-07-25	oos	0.002304	0.002174	-5.63%	0.00227	-1.48%	0.2819	✓	1.58
2026-07-24	oos	0.002315	0.002175	-6.06%	0.00236	+1.94%	0.1880	✓	1.40
2026-07-23	oos	0.001482	0.001455	-1.80%	0.00264	+78.14%	0.3233	✗	1.61
2026-07-22	oos	0.00136	0.001357	-0.21%	0.002582	+89.85%	0.3596	✗	1.67
2026-07-21	oos	0.001551	0.00155	-0.09%	0.003052	+96.78%	0.5238	✗	1.65
2026-07-20	oos	0.001198	0.001212	+1.18%	0.002289	+91.07%	0.5464	✓	1.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.001223	0.001242	+1.56%	0.00195	+59.44%	0.4511	✓	1.47
2026-07-18	oos	0.001349	0.001378	+2.14%	0.001986	+47.22%	0.3729	✓	1.47
2026-07-17	oos	0.001424	0.001456	+2.26%	0.001873	+31.53%	0.2769	✓	1.51
2026-07-16	oos	0.001041	0.001099	+5.57%	0.001955	+87.80%	0.5933	✓	1.46
2026-07-15	oos	0.001046	0.001102	+5.37%	0.002087	+99.52%	0.6787	✓	1.47
2026-07-14	oos	0.001158	0.001204	+3.94%	0.00194	+67.53%	0.5131	✓	1.47
2026-07-13	oos	0.001046	0.001099	+5.10%	0.002211	+111.38%	0.6739	✓	1.36
2026-07-12	oos	0.001205	0.001236	+2.61%	0.002031	+68.55%	0.5006	✓	1.29
2026-07-11	oos	0.001323	0.001357	+2.58%	0.001751	+32.35%	0.2520	✓	1.30
2026-07-10	oos	0.001144	0.001175	+2.73%	0.001717	+50.09%	0.3644	✓	1.32
2026-07-09	oos	0.001093	0.001121	+2.54%	0.001589	+45.38%	0.3143	✓	1.28
2026-07-08	oos	0.001003	0.00103	+2.69%	0.001601	+59.62%	0.3902	✓	1.22
2026-07-07	oos	0.001139	0.00117	+2.71%	0.002119	+86.04%	0.5767	✓	1.17
2026-07-06	oos	0.001392	0.001435	+3.10%	0.001998	+43.53%	0.3204	✓	1.12
2026-07-05	oos	0.001462	0.001504	+2.89%	0.002382	+62.93%	0.4514	✓	1.13
2026-07-04	oos	0.001537	0.00158	+2.80%	0.001356	-11.78%	0.1598	✗	1.15
2026-07-03	oos	0.001855	0.001911	+3.01%	0.001354	-27.01%	0.3637	✗	1.24
2026-07-02	oos	0.001555	0.001609	+3.48%	0.001573	+1.16%	0.0452	✗	1.09
2026-07-01	oos	0.001815	0.001913	+5.38%	0.001676	-7.66%	0.1923	✗	1.29
2026-06-30	oos	0.001818	0.001963	+7.98%	0.001696	-6.71%	0.2779	✗	1.31
2026-06-29	oos	0.002226	0.002388	+7.26%	0.001747	-21.52%	0.3815	✗	1.15
2026-06-28	oos	0.002274	0.002481	+9.11%	0.001803	-20.71%	0.4016	✗	1.16
2026-06-27	oos	0.002491	0.002675	+7.41%	0.002076	-16.66%	0.3237	✗	1.15
2026-06-26	oos	0.002527	0.0027	+6.85%	0.002034	-19.51%	0.3813	✗	1.15
2026-06-25	oos	0.002311	0.002457	+6.32%	0.002304	-0.30%	0.1464	✗	1.11
2026-06-24	oos	0.002585	0.002685	+3.88%	0.002315	-10.44%	0.2005	✗	1.05
2026-06-23	oos	0.002713	0.002741	+1.04%	0.001482	-45.37%	0.6544	✗	1.05
2026-06-22	oos	0.003108	0.00307	-1.23%	0.00136	-56.24%	0.8457	✓	0.96
2026-06-21	oos	0.003271	0.003231	-1.23%	0.001551	-52.58%	0.7843	✓	1.00
2026-06-20	oos	0.003663	0.003582	-2.22%	0.001198	-67.29%	1.1097	✓	0.95
2026-06-19	oos	0.003814	0.003739	-1.96%	0.001223	-67.93%	1.1360	✓	0.98
2026-06-18	oos	0.004509	0.00442	-1.97%	0.001349	-70.08%	1.2195	✓	1.09
2026-06-17	oos	0.003947	0.00385	-2.46%	0.001424	-63.92%	0.9837	✓	1.27
2026-06-16	oos	0.003759	0.003662	-2.59%	0.001041	-72.31%	1.2196	✓	1.34
2026-06-15	oos	0.003974	0.003866	-2.73%	0.001046	-73.68%	1.2756	✓	1.33
2026-06-14	oos	0.003552	0.003471	-2.29%	0.001158	-67.40%	1.0838	✓	1.25
2026-06-13	oos	0.003566	0.003495	-1.99%	0.001046	-70.67%	1.1629	✓	1.27
2026-06-12	oos	0.003336	0.003294	-1.26%	0.001205	-63.88%	1.0095	✓	1.21
2026-06-11	oos	0.004303	0.004165	-3.20%	0.001323	-69.25%	1.1511	✓	1.26
2026-06-10	oos	0.002921	0.00295	+1.00%	0.001144	-60.84%	0.9655	✗	0.43
2026-06-09	oos	0.002752	0.002779	+1.01%	0.001093	-60.28%	0.9433	✗	0.42
2026-06-08	oos	0.0034	0.003333	-1.96%	0.001003	-70.50%	1.1979	✓	0.23
2026-06-07	oos	0.002709	0.002688	-0.76%	0.001139	-57.95%	0.8588	✓	0.21
2026-06-06	oos	0.002536	0.002565	+1.16%	0.001392	-45.11%	0.6087	✗	-0.05
2026-06-05	oos	0.00276	0.002751	-0.31%	0.001462	-47.03%	0.6306	✓	-0.04
2026-06-04	oos	0.003442	0.003333	-3.16%	0.001537	-55.35%	0.7814	✓	-0.64
2026-06-03	oos	0.003874	0.003735	-3.58%	0.001855	-52.12%	0.7152	✓	-0.64
2026-06-02	oos	0.003912	0.003821	-2.33%	0.001555	-60.25%	0.9530	✓	-0.67
2026-06-01	oos	0.004258	0.004129	-3.03%	0.001815	-57.37%	1.1014	✓	-1.61
2026-05-31	oos	0.00464	0.004424	-4.66%	0.001818	-60.82%	1.3769	✓	-2.13
2026-05-30	oos	0.005079	0.004805	-5.39%	0.002226	-56.17%	1.2068	✓	-2.14
2026-05-29	oos	0.005568	0.005231	-6.05%	0.002274	-59.16%	1.2689	✓	-2.08
2026-05-28	oos	0.005328	0.005022	-5.75%	0.002491	-53.25%	1.1244	✓	-2.07
2026-05-27	oos	0.006092	0.005588	-8.27%	0.002527	-58.52%	1.2814	✓	-2.28
2026-05-26	oos	0.00445	0.004261	-4.25%	0.002311	-48.07%	0.9368	✓	-1.36
2026-05-25	oos	0.00509	0.004746	-6.76%	0.002585	-49.21%	1.0346	✓	-1.81
2026-05-24	oos	0.004153	0.004035	-2.85%	0.002713	-34.67%	0.1909	✓	1.00
2026-05-23	oos	0.00441	0.004247	-3.69%	0.003108	-29.52%	0.1311	✓	1.00
2026-05-22	oos	0.004059	0.004002	-1.41%	0.003271	-19.41%	0.0251	✓	1.00
2026-05-21	oos	0.003775	0.00378	+0.13%	0.003663	-2.97%	0.1571	✓	1.00
2026-05-20	oos	0.003886	0.003906	+0.50%	0.003814	-1.85%	0.1756	✓	1.00
2026-05-19	oos	0.004278	0.004251	-0.62%	0.004509	+5.40%	0.2584	✗	1.00
2026-05-18	oos	0.005165	0.004984	-3.50%	0.003947	-23.58%	0.0560	✓	1.00
2026-05-17	oos	0.005415	0.005193	-4.10%	0.003759	-30.58%	0.1579	✓	1.00
2026-05-16	oos	0.00561	0.005361	-4.45%	0.003974	-29.16%	0.1351	✓	1.00
2026-05-15	oos	0.005628	0.005376	-4.47%	0.003552	-36.89%	0.2295	✓	1.00
2026-05-14	oos	0.006103	0.005737	-5.99%	0.003566	-41.57%	0.2457	✓	1.00
2026-05-13	oos	0.005994	0.005637	-5.95%	0.003336	-44.34%	0.3032	✓	1.00
2026-05-12	oos	0.006296	0.005899	-6.31%	0.004303	-31.66%	0.0794	✓	1.00
2026-05-11	oos	0.005912	0.005594	-5.38%	0.002921	-50.59%	0.3645	✓	1.00
2026-05-10	oos	0.005016	0.00478	-4.70%	0.002752	-45.15%	0.2653	✓	1.00
2026-05-09	oos	0.006054	0.00575	-5.02%	0.0034	-43.84%	0.2794	✓	1.00
2026-05-08	oos	0.006363	0.00606	-4.77%	0.002709	-57.43%	0.5686	✓	1.00
2026-05-07	oos	0.008334	0.007896	-5.25%	0.002536	-69.57%	0.8621	✓	1.00
2026-05-06	oos	0.006596	0.006315	-4.26%	0.00276	-58.16%	0.5393	✓	1.00
2026-05-05	oos	0.004356	0.004144	-4.87%	0.003442	-20.98%	0.0519	✗	1.00
2026-05-04	oos	0.004281	0.004073	-4.87%	0.003874	-9.51%	0.1707	✗	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.