2021-12-25 · +1d

gru_s2 · in-sample — the model trained on this date · 137 tokens predicted

These numbers are in-sample. The model was trained on this date, so predicted-vs-actual agreement here is not evidence of skill.

+1d +7d +30d asset cohort only

rank IC

+0.1872

137 of 137 tokens assessed

long-short decile

+2.67%

realised beta-adjusted alpha

direction hit

50.4%

in alpha space · 49.3% on raw price

BTC over horizon

+0.74%

the unhedgeable market factor

Predicted vs actual (137 rows, sorted by pred)

token	name	chain	anchor px	pred px ▾	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d	vol 30d	target
TRX	TRON	Tron	0.081715	0.081916	+0.25%	0.081508	-0.25%	0.0121	✗	0.96	655k	2021-12-26
XYM	Symbol	native	0.2424	0.242837	+0.18%	0.2394	-1.24%	0.0177	✗	0.47	393k	2021-12-26
FIL	Filecoin	Filecoin	37.02	37.0845	+0.17%	37.29	+0.73%	0.0020	✗	1.01	22.7M	2021-12-26
NANO	nanopay	Base	3.78	3.7865	+0.17%	3.8689	+2.35%	0.0137	✓	1.06	819k	2021-12-26
SUN	Sun Token	Tron	0.023808	0.023848	+0.17%	0.024422	+2.58%	0.0149	✓	1.20	2.2M	2021-12-26
BTC	Bitcoin	Bitcoin	50,428.31	50,504.08	+0.15%	50,801.79	+0.74%	0.0015	✗	1.00	750.8M	2021-12-26
1INCH	1INCH	Ethereum	2.73	2.7338	+0.14%	2.76	+1.10%	0.0020	✓	1.02	4.4M	2021-12-26
MTL	Metal DAO	Metal L2	2.31	2.3129	+0.13%	2.289	-0.91%	0.0186	✗	1.11	3.3M	2021-12-26
WBTC	Wrapped Bitcoin	Ethereum	51,009.40	51,063.45	+0.11%	50,987.30	-0.04%	0.0087	✗	0.98	8,566	2021-12-26
UNI	Uniswap	Ethereum	17.47	17.4877	+0.10%	18.67	+6.87%	0.0558	✓	1.31	14.6M	2021-12-26
LINK	Chainlink	Ethereum	22.12	22.1421	+0.10%	22.99	+3.93%	0.0280	✓	1.30	69.7M	2021-12-26
BCHSV	Bitcoin Cash SV		128.21	128.311	+0.08%	127.5	-0.55%	0.0136	✗	0.99	3.2M	2021-12-26
DOGE	Dogecoin	Dogecoin	0.190748	0.190878	+0.07%	0.190018	-0.38%	0.0127	✗	1.11	6.1M	2021-12-26
DOT	Polkadot	Polkadot	28.86	28.8768	+0.06%	31.34	+8.59%	0.0727	✓	1.25	77.3M	2021-12-26
QTUM	Qtum	Qtum	10.0526	10.058	+0.05%	9.8982	-1.54%	0.0267	✗	1.44	309k	2021-12-26
XVS	Venus	Ethereum	16.46	16.468	+0.05%	17.11	+3.95%	0.0299	✓	1.13	4.9M	2021-12-26
ACM	AC Milan Fan Token	Solana	5.47	5.4724	+0.04%	5.487	+0.31%	0.0021	✗	0.65	846k	2021-12-26
DYDX	dYdX	Cosmos	9.001	9.0041	+0.03%	9.232	+2.57%	0.0152	✓	1.33	455k	2021-12-26
JUV	Juventus Fan Token	Solana	9.34	9.3418	+0.02%	9.4	+0.64%	0.0005	✓	0.77	934k	2021-12-26
ICP	Internet Computer	Ethereum	27.29	27.2949	+0.02%	26.72	-2.09%	0.0316	✗	1.40	24.1M	2021-12-26
ASR	AS Roma Fan Token	Solana	4.05	4.0502	+0.01%	4.113	+1.56%	0.0101	✓	0.71	473k	2021-12-26
ORBS	Orbs	Ethereum	0.0895	0.089501	+0.00%	0.0896	+0.11%	0.0069	✗	1.09	19k	2021-12-26
DODO	DODO	Ethereum	0.941	0.940913	-0.01%	1.002	+6.48%	0.0521	✗	1.46	8.9M	2021-12-26
SNX	Synthetix	Ethereum	5.88	5.8794	-0.01%	6.24	+6.12%	0.0513	✗	1.11	4.6M	2021-12-26
ETC	Ethereum Classic	native	38.1	38.0872	-0.03%	37.92	-0.47%	0.0121	✓	1.05	5.9M	2021-12-26
NMR	Numeraire	Ethereum	34.44	34.4284	-0.03%	34.4	-0.12%	0.0058	✓	0.67	611k	2021-12-26
RLC	iExec RLC	Ethereum	3.13	3.1289	-0.04%	3.08	-1.60%	0.0252	✓	1.29	3.2M	2021-12-26
XTZ	Tezos	Tezos	4.5838	4.5821	-0.04%	4.8691	+6.22%	0.0512	✗	1.29	5.4M	2021-12-26
BEL	Bella Protocol	Ethereum	1.639	1.6384	-0.04%	1.668	+1.77%	0.0083	✗	1.30	4.8M	2021-12-26
DASH	Dash	Dash	150	149.9419	-0.04%	149.09	-0.61%	0.0150	✓	1.27	2.1M	2021-12-26
ETH	Ethereum	Ethereum	4,097.43	4,095.50	-0.05%	4,065.91	-0.77%	0.0150	✓	1.05	768.5M	2021-12-26
ADA	Cardano	Cardano	1.4542	1.4535	-0.05%	1.4549	+0.05%	0.0069	✓	1.06	120.7M	2021-12-26
SOL	Solana	Solana	193.06	192.9606	-0.05%	198	+2.56%	0.0183	✗	1.02	257.1M	2021-12-26
QNT	Quant	Ethereum	195.44	195.3256	-0.06%	194.3	-0.58%	0.0122	✓	0.94	12.0M	2021-12-26
XMR	Monero	Monero	211.35	211.2247	-0.06%	216.57	+2.47%	0.0177	✗	0.99	2.8M	2021-12-26
FTT	FTX	Ethereum	42.74	42.7111	-0.07%	42.59	-0.35%	0.0106	✓	1.06	21.2M	2021-12-26
XEC	eCash	native	0.00011988	0.000119796	-0.07%	0.00012144	+1.30%	0.0063	✗	0.99	11.6M	2021-12-26
RIF	Rootstock Infrastructure Framework	Ethereum	0.2174	0.217241	-0.07%	0.219	+0.74%	0.0017	✗	0.87	756k	2021-12-26
XEM	NEM	native	0.137	0.13689	-0.08%	0.1412	+3.07%	0.0229	✗	1.10	199k	2021-12-26
COMP	Compound	Ethereum	228.44	228.2432	-0.09%	235.5	+3.09%	0.0232	✗	1.10	239k	2021-12-26
DKA	dKargo	Ethereum	0.12333	0.123223	-0.09%	0.12458	+1.01%	0.0029	✗	1.10	29k	2021-12-26
BCH	Bitcoin Cash	Bitcoin Cash	455.36	454.9475	-0.09%	451.86	-0.77%	0.0144	✓	1.03	13.1M	2021-12-26
MED	Medibloc	Osmosis	0.05902	0.058963	-0.10%	0.05866	-0.61%	0.0134	✓	1.11	16k	2021-12-26
LTC	Litecoin	Litecoin	158	157.8392	-0.10%	155.96	-1.29%	0.0222	✓	1.39	56.9M	2021-12-26
AUCTION	Bounce	Ethereum	25.62	25.5932	-0.10%	25.82	+0.78%	0.0009	✓	1.07	2.7M	2021-12-26
OG	OG Fan Token	Solana	4.28	4.2753	-0.11%	4.37	+2.10%	0.0158	✗	0.83	719k	2021-12-26
BNT	Bancor Network	Ethereum	3.55	3.5458	-0.12%	3.61	+1.69%	0.0107	✗	0.99	1.2M	2021-12-26
BAND	Band	Ethereum	5.75	5.743	-0.12%	5.85	+1.74%	0.0097	✗	1.19	3.0M	2021-12-26
ATM	Atletico Madrid Fan Token	Solana	8.05	8.04	-0.12%	7.96	-1.12%	0.0147	✓	0.63	1.0M	2021-12-26
GT	Gate	Ethereum	6.389	6.3808	-0.13%	6.7502	+5.65%	0.0504	✗	0.80	4.3M	2021-12-26
KNC	Kyber Network Crystal	Ethereum	1.4098	1.408	-0.13%	1.3933	-1.17%	0.0184	✓	1.07	1.3M	2021-12-26
SUSHI	Sushi	Ethereum	7.65	7.6399	-0.13%	7.93	+3.66%	0.0271	✗	1.38	15.1M	2021-12-26
MOVR	Moonriver	Base	185.5458	185.2874	-0.14%	187.2077	+0.90%	0.0019	✗	1.14	704k	2021-12-26
PSG	Paris Saint-Germain Fan Token	Solana	17.01	16.9861	-0.14%	16.92	-0.53%	0.0090	✓	0.69	1.4M	2021-12-26
CTK	Shentu	Osmosis	1.952	1.9492	-0.14%	1.942	-0.51%	0.0134	✓	1.32	7.9M	2021-12-26
KSM	Kusama	Hydration	293.74	293.2914	-0.15%	322.4	+9.76%	0.0866	✗	1.09	1.5M	2021-12-26
XLM	Stellar	Stellar	0.290047	0.289602	-0.15%	0.291987	+0.67%	0.0008	✓	1.00	35.1M	2021-12-26
LAZIO	Lazio Fan Token	Binance Smart Chain	5.2814	5.2731	-0.16%	5.3426	+1.16%	0.0031	✗	1.35	5.4M	2021-12-26
ASM	Assemble AI	Ethereum	0.10179	0.101623	-0.16%	0.09987	-1.89%	0.0282	✓	1.47	4.8M	2021-12-26
AMP	Amp	Ethereum	0.04956	0.049477	-0.17%	0.05082	+2.54%	0.0200	✗	0.91	11.3M	2021-12-26
JASMY	JasmyCoin	Ethereum	0.08801	0.087857	-0.17%	0.08785	-0.18%	0.0090	✓	1.20	21.7M	2021-12-26
BAR	FC Barcelona Fan Token	Solana	9.95	9.9315	-0.19%	9.64	-3.12%	0.0347	✓	0.67	1.0M	2021-12-26
XPR	XPR Network	Ethereum	0.01881	0.018774	-0.19%	0.01869	-0.64%	0.0137	✓	1.25	2.9M	2021-12-26
CBK	Cobak	Ethereum	3.331	3.3241	-0.21%	3.279	-1.56%	0.0199	✓	0.84	99k	2021-12-26
TKO	Tokocrypto	Binance Smart Chain	1.302	1.299	-0.23%	1.317	+1.15%	0.0066	✗	0.96	3.7M	2021-12-26
METRONOME	METRONOME		5.1706	5.1585	-0.23%	4.9306	-4.64%	0.0507	✓	0.75	28k	2021-12-26
PORTO	FC Porto	Binance Smart Chain	3.5842	3.5757	-0.24%	3.66	+2.11%	0.0141	✗	1.25	3.4M	2021-12-26
LSK	Lisk	Ethereum	2.5192	2.5132	-0.24%	2.4928	-1.05%	0.0169	✓	1.18	147k	2021-12-26
LEO	LEO Token	Ethereum	3.5524	3.5437	-0.24%	3.4826	-1.96%	0.0168	✓	-0.09	384k	2021-12-26
ANKR	Ankr Network	Ethereum	0.11267	0.11239	-0.25%	0.11329	+0.55%	0.0038	✗	0.57	113k	2021-12-26
DEXE	DeXe	Ethereum	12.57	12.5386	-0.25%	12.67	+0.80%	0.0125	✗	-0.28	4.9M	2021-12-26
OMG	OMG Network	Ethereum	6.86	6.8426	-0.25%	6.8179	-0.61%	0.0124	✓	1.19	819k	2021-12-26
GRT	The Graph	Ethereum	0.7199	0.717954	-0.27%	0.7354	+2.15%	0.0146	✗	1.28	13.2M	2021-12-26
CHZ	Chiliz	Ethereum	0.3183	0.317432	-0.27%	0.3303	+3.77%	0.0303	✗	1.28	5.8M	2021-12-26
DNT	district0x	Ethereum	0.1406	0.140215	-0.27%	0.1438	+2.28%	0.0175	✗	1.06	413k	2021-12-26
SKL	SKALE	Ethereum	0.2345	0.233834	-0.28%	0.24	+2.35%	0.0170	✗	1.22	6.2M	2021-12-26
OXT	Orchid Protocol	Ethereum	0.3974	0.396209	-0.30%	0.4265	+7.32%	0.0643	✗	1.27	5.3M	2021-12-26
AXS	Axie Infinity	Ethereum	109.28	108.9517	-0.30%	107.53	-1.60%	0.0202	✓	0.96	8.4M	2021-12-26
ALGO	Algorand	Algorand	1.5748	1.57	-0.31%	1.6079	+2.10%	0.0160	✗	1.07	33.5M	2021-12-26
CITY	Manchester City Fan Token	Solana	11.18	11.145	-0.31%	11.25	+0.63%	0.0037	✗	0.77	1.4M	2021-12-26
ZEC	Zcash	Zcash	169.64	169.1051	-0.32%	167.45	-1.29%	0.0196	✓	1.32	12.7M	2021-12-26
MINA	Mina Protocol	native	3.59	3.5786	-0.32%	3.81	+6.13%	0.0552	✗	1.02	787k	2021-12-26
POWR	Powerledger	Ethereum	0.4703	0.468781	-0.32%	0.469	-0.28%	0.0100	✓	1.42	1.1M	2021-12-26
ACH	Alchemy Pay	Ethereum	0.06464	0.064423	-0.34%	0.06404	-0.93%	0.0167	✓	1.46	9.2M	2021-12-26
ATOM	Cosmos Hub	Cosmos	29.79	29.6887	-0.34%	32.17	+7.99%	0.0740	✗	0.85	39.4M	2021-12-26
IOTA	IOTA	IOTA	1.315	1.3105	-0.35%	1.3907	+5.76%	0.0518	✗	1.04	22.8M	2021-12-26
TRAC	OriginTrail	Ethereum	1.1181	1.1142	-0.35%	1.1705	+4.69%	0.0383	✗	1.48	2.4M	2021-12-26
EWT	Energy Web Token	Ethereum	9.952	9.9172	-0.35%	9.727	-2.26%	0.0240	✓	0.63	388k	2021-12-26
NAKA	Nakamoto Games	Polygon	2	1.993	-0.35%	2.196	+9.80%	0.0921	✗	0.66	7.5M	2021-12-26
CERE	Cere Network	Ethereum	0.0826	0.082307	-0.35%	0.084	+1.69%	0.0107	✗	1.31	2.3M	2021-12-26
VSYS	V.SYSTEMS	native	0.01996	0.019889	-0.36%	0.01958	-1.90%	0.0200	✓	0.59	53k	2021-12-26
TWT	Trust Wallet	Binance Smart Chain	0.7916	0.788633	-0.37%	0.7893	-0.29%	0.0084	✓	1.25	7.7M	2021-12-26
ZRX	0x Protocol	Ethereum	0.862461	0.859208	-0.38%	0.879132	+1.93%	0.0150	✗	1.08	3.4M	2021-12-26
ARPA	ARPA	Ethereum	0.1109	0.110481	-0.38%	0.113	+1.89%	0.0125	✗	1.36	3.0M	2021-12-26
YFI	yearn.finance	Ethereum	31,196.71	31,078.36	-0.38%	31,193.34	-0.01%	0.0002	✓	0.52	7.7M	2021-12-26
TRB	Tellor Tributes	Ethereum	39.41	39.2555	-0.39%	38.9	-1.29%	0.0202	✓	1.51	1.3M	2021-12-26
SC	Siacoin	native	0.01675	0.016684	-0.39%	0.01668	-0.42%	0.0071	✓	0.93	1.3M	2021-12-26
AAVE	Aave	Ethereum	263.91	262.8337	-0.41%	268.05	+1.57%	0.0118	✗	1.07	11.4M	2021-12-26
UMA	UMA	Ethereum	9.78	9.7385	-0.42%	10.41	+6.44%	0.0587	✗	1.08	4.1M	2021-12-26
IMX	Immutable	Ethereum	4.72	4.6998	-0.43%	4.72	+0.00%	0.0031	✓	1.00	2.5M	2021-12-26
KCS	KuCoin	native	22.92	22.8161	-0.45%	22.898	-0.10%	0.0088	✓	1.68	20.1M	2021-12-26
GODS	Gods Unchained	Ethereum	5.29	5.2651	-0.47%	5.23	-1.13%	0.0141	✓	1.00	6.5M	2021-12-26
SUPER	SuperVerse	Ethereum	1.27	1.264	-0.47%	1.28	+0.79%	0.0052	✗	1.00	2.4M	2021-12-26
XYO	XYO Network	Ethereum	0.037845	0.037663	-0.48%	0.03765	-0.52%	0.0079	✓	1.02	11.6M	2021-12-26
XVG	Verge	native	0.01838	0.018292	-0.48%	0.01937	+5.39%	0.0485	✗	1.18	2.8M	2021-12-26
ZEN	Horizen	Base	70.77	70.4177	-0.50%	70.3	-0.66%	0.0128	✓	1.51	1.3M	2021-12-26
LRC	Loopring	Ethereum	2.2841	2.2726	-0.50%	2.3444	+2.64%	0.0168	✗	1.95	1.9M	2021-12-26
BFC	Bifrost	Ethereum	0.21629	0.215183	-0.51%	0.20968	-3.06%	0.0379	✓	1.62	23k	2021-12-26
BAT	Basic Attention	Ethereum	1.3389	1.3317	-0.54%	1.3324	-0.49%	0.0125	✓	1.76	1.6M	2021-12-26
LUNA	Terra	Terra 2	98.4	97.8652	-0.54%	99.78	+1.40%	0.0120	✗	1.00	6.1M	2021-12-26
SHIB	Shiba Inu	Ethereum	0.00003772	0.000037514	-0.55%	0.00003825	+1.41%	0.0121	✗	1.00	2.1M	2021-12-26
LCX	LCX	Ethereum	0.2058	0.20459	-0.59%	0.2011	-2.28%	0.0256	✓	1.14	4.2M	2021-12-26
AGLD	Adventure Gold	Ethereum	1.94	1.9282	-0.61%	2.22	+14.43%	0.1284	✗	1.70	1.5M	2021-12-26
API3	Api3	Ethereum	4.91	4.8803	-0.61%	4.79	-2.44%	0.0260	✓	1.00	1.3M	2021-12-26
ENJ	Enjin Coin	Ethereum	3.134	3.114	-0.64%	3.19	+1.79%	0.0169	✗	0.97	2.2M	2021-12-26
STORJ	Storj	Ethereum	2.0162	2.0032	-0.64%	2.0712	+2.73%	0.0282	✗	0.70	1.3M	2021-12-26
COTI	COTI	Ethereum	0.4176	0.414851	-0.66%	0.4225	+1.17%	0.0071	✗	1.52	4.4M	2021-12-26
OGN	Origin Token	Ethereum	0.721	0.716213	-0.66%	0.73	+1.25%	0.0099	✗	1.24	3.0M	2021-12-26
RAD	Radworks	Ethereum	11.08	11.0058	-0.67%	10.61	-4.24%	0.0436	✓	0.95	2.0M	2021-12-26
CTSI	Cartesi	Ethereum	0.7869	0.781268	-0.72%	0.8093	+2.85%	0.0258	✗	1.28	4.0M	2021-12-26
CELL	Cellframe	Ethereum	1.1799	1.171	-0.75%	1.0806	-8.42%	0.0878	✓	1.00	184k	2021-12-26
MANA	Decentraland	Ethereum	3.7481	3.7197	-0.76%	3.862	+3.04%	0.0311	✗	0.88	8.6M	2021-12-26
HIVE	Hive	native	1.6509	1.6383	-0.76%	1.7664	+7.00%	0.0656	✗	1.32	8.6M	2021-12-26
AVAX	Avalanche	Avalanche	114.86	113.9706	-0.77%	115.07	+0.18%	0.0012	✓	1.13	136.0M	2021-12-26
ENS	Ethereum Name Service	Ethereum	46.41	46.0463	-0.78%	45.66	-1.62%	0.0220	✓	1.85	8.6M	2021-12-26
LPT	Livepeer	Ethereum	44.57	44.1952	-0.84%	43.55	-2.29%	0.0274	✓	1.71	4.2M	2021-12-26
UOS	Ultra	Ethereum	1.7241	1.7082	-0.92%	1.6918	-1.87%	0.0170	✓	1.00	6.2M	2021-12-26
CRV	Curve DAO	Ethereum	5.84	5.7841	-0.96%	5.75	-1.54%	0.0156	✓	1.31	28.7M	2021-12-26
CVC	Civic	Ethereum	0.3659	0.362353	-0.97%	0.371	+1.39%	0.0169	✗	0.91	356k	2021-12-26
MASK	Mask Network	Ethereum	13.23	13.101	-0.98%	13.1	-0.98%	0.0040	✓	0.53	2.7M	2021-12-26
SPELL	Spell	Ethereum	0.02284	0.022555	-1.25%	0.02201	-3.63%	0.0318	✓	1.00	35.6M	2021-12-26
SANTOS	Santos FC Fan Token	Binance Smart Chain	4.292	4.2357	-1.31%	4.307	+0.35%	0.0093	✓	1.00	3.6M	2021-12-26
DUSK	DUSK	Ethereum	0.7354	0.724581	-1.47%	0.7068	-3.89%	0.0378	✓	1.76	17.7M	2021-12-26
GITCOIN	GITCOIN		16.057	15.7585	-1.86%	15.136	-5.74%	0.0397	✓	-0.08	134k	2021-12-26
GTC	Gitcoin	Ethereum	16.15	15.8346	-1.95%	15.17	-6.07%	0.0427	✓	-0.02	5.1M	2021-12-26
PHA	PHALA	Ethereum	0.536	0.522415	-2.53%	0.494	-7.84%	0.0613	✓	0.73	45k	2021-12-26
BICO	Biconomy	Ethereum	5.01	4.8819	-2.56%	5.75	+14.77%	0.1563	✗	1.00	12.1M	2021-12-26

Δ columns are percentage price moves; alpha err and the hit column are in beta-adjusted log-return space, which is what the model actually predicts. “pending” means the horizon has not matured yet. Rows are capped for readability — add &limit=2000 to widen.