TOLLY
Tolly · Arc · gru_s1
- token id
- #737
- symbol
- TOLLY
- variant
- –
- chain
- Arc
- address
- 0xbc43ce8dec648ea298c4275559b81d6261c90b67
- cohort
- datapoint (mid-window listing)
- first bar
- 2026-09-16
- predictions
- 84
Track record at +7d
assessed
21
of 28 predictions shown
direction hit
66.7%
alpha space; 50% is a coin flip
MAE (alpha)
0.4109
mean absolute log-return error
mean pred / actual
+0.0013
actual -0.3931
History
| as of | split | anchor px | pred px | pred Δ | actual px | actual Δ | alpha err | hit | β90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | oos | 0.0017 | 0.001631 | -4.06% | – | pending | – | – | -1.65 |
| 2026-10-21 | oos | 0.001688 | 0.001619 | -4.07% | – | pending | – | – | -1.65 |
| 2026-10-20 | oos | 0.001677 | 0.001624 | -3.16% | – | pending | – | – | -1.70 |
| 2026-10-19 | oos | 0.001597 | 0.001568 | -1.82% | – | pending | – | – | -1.80 |
| 2026-10-18 | oos | 0.001213 | 0.00125 | +3.07% | – | pending | – | – | -1.68 |
| 2026-10-17 | oos | 0.001311 | 0.001353 | +3.20% | – | pending | – | – | -1.67 |
| 2026-10-16 | oos | 0.001335 | 0.001387 | +3.91% | – | pending | – | – | -1.66 |
| 2026-10-15 | oos | 0.001447 | 0.0015 | +3.66% | 0.0017 | +17.48% | 0.1000 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-14 | oos | 0.001505 | 0.001569 | +4.28% | 0.001688 | +12.16% | 0.0431 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-13 | oos | 0.001563 | 0.001629 | +4.24% | 0.001677 | +7.29% | 0.0308 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-12 | oos | 0.001742 | 0.001816 | +4.25% | 0.001597 | -8.32% | 0.1297 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-11 | oos | 0.002234 | 0.002257 | +1.04% | 0.001213 | -45.70% | 0.6008 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-10 | oos | 0.002289 | 0.002328 | +1.69% | 0.001311 | -42.74% | 0.5557 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-09 | oos | 0.002722 | 0.002709 | -0.46% | 0.001335 | -50.96% | 0.6951 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-08 | oos | 0.002247 | 0.002332 | +3.78% | 0.001447 | -35.60% | 0.4824 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-07 | oos | 0.002574 | 0.002611 | +1.44% | 0.001505 | -41.53% | 0.5302 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-06 | oos | 0.002262 | 0.002308 | +2.04% | 0.001563 | -30.90% | 0.3609 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-05 | oos | 0.002414 | 0.002437 | +0.96% | 0.001742 | -27.84% | 0.2880 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-04 | oos | 0.003086 | 0.003033 | -1.71% | 0.002234 | -27.61% | 0.2726 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-03 | oos | 0.003156 | 0.003102 | -1.72% | 0.002289 | -27.46% | 0.2817 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-02 | oos | 0.003975 | 0.003882 | -2.34% | 0.002722 | -31.52% | 0.3315 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-01 | oos | 0.003762 | 0.003676 | -2.29% | 0.002247 | -40.27% | 0.4543 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-30 | oos | 0.003846 | 0.003757 | -2.32% | 0.002574 | -33.07% | 0.3748 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-29 | oos | 0.003944 | 0.003854 | -2.27% | 0.002262 | -42.65% | 0.5554 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-28 | oos | 0.005021 | 0.004901 | -2.39% | 0.002414 | -51.92% | 0.7353 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-27 | oos | 0.005559 | 0.005423 | -2.44% | 0.003086 | -44.49% | 0.5878 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-26 | oos | 0.006251 | 0.006082 | -2.70% | 0.003156 | -49.51% | 0.6599 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-25 | oos | 0.007163 | 0.006924 | -3.33% | 0.003975 | -44.51% | 0.5599 | ✓ | 1.00 |