TOLLY
Tolly · Arc · gru_s1
- token id
- #737
- symbol
- TOLLY
- variant
- –
- chain
- Arc
- address
- 0xbc43ce8dec648ea298c4275559b81d6261c90b67
- cohort
- datapoint (mid-window listing)
- first bar
- 2026-09-16
- predictions
- 81
Track record at +1d
assessed
26
of 27 predictions shown
direction hit
57.7%
alpha space; 50% is a coin flip
MAE (alpha)
0.1106
mean absolute log-return error
mean pred / actual
-0.0044
actual -0.0511
History
| as of | split | anchor px | pred px | pred Δ | actual px | actual Δ | alpha err | hit | β90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | oos | 0.001791 | 0.00177 | -1.19% | – | pending | – | – | -1.74 |
| 2026-10-20 | oos | 0.001677 | 0.001659 | -1.09% | 0.001791 | +6.80% | 0.0717 | ✗ | -1.70 |
| 2026-10-19 | oos | 0.001597 | 0.001582 | -0.94% | 0.001677 | +5.01% | 0.0824 | ✗ | -1.80 |
| 2026-10-18 | oos | 0.001213 | 0.001216 | +0.24% | 0.001597 | +31.66% | 0.2692 | ✓ | -1.68 |
| 2026-10-17 | oos | 0.001311 | 0.001314 | +0.23% | 0.001213 | -7.48% | 0.0672 | ✗ | -1.67 |
| 2026-10-16 | oos | 0.001335 | 0.001339 | +0.30% | 0.001311 | -1.80% | 0.0236 | ✗ | -1.66 |
| 2026-10-15 | oos | 0.001447 | 0.00145 | +0.21% | 0.001335 | -7.74% | 0.0751 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-14 | oos | 0.001505 | 0.001509 | +0.27% | 0.001447 | -3.85% | 0.0488 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-13 | oos | 0.001563 | 0.001567 | +0.24% | 0.001505 | -3.71% | 0.0216 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-12 | oos | 0.001742 | 0.001746 | +0.23% | 0.001563 | -10.28% | 0.1272 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-11 | oos | 0.002234 | 0.002226 | -0.35% | 0.001742 | -22.02% | 0.2218 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-10 | oos | 0.002289 | 0.002283 | -0.27% | 0.002234 | -2.42% | 0.0311 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-09 | oos | 0.002722 | 0.002699 | -0.86% | 0.002289 | -15.89% | 0.1688 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-08 | oos | 0.002247 | 0.002245 | -0.11% | 0.002722 | +21.14% | 0.1825 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-07 | oos | 0.002574 | 0.002559 | -0.58% | 0.002247 | -12.70% | 0.1109 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-06 | oos | 0.002262 | 0.002258 | -0.18% | 0.002574 | +13.79% | 0.1578 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-05 | oos | 0.002414 | 0.002409 | -0.21% | 0.002262 | -6.30% | 0.0605 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-04 | oos | 0.003086 | 0.003067 | -0.61% | 0.002414 | -21.78% | 0.2306 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-03 | oos | 0.003156 | 0.00314 | -0.52% | 0.003086 | -2.22% | 0.0378 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-02 | oos | 0.003975 | 0.003939 | -0.91% | 0.003156 | -20.60% | 0.2244 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-01 | oos | 0.003762 | 0.003734 | -0.75% | 0.003975 | +5.66% | 0.0667 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-30 | oos | 0.003846 | 0.00382 | -0.67% | 0.003762 | -2.18% | 0.0307 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-29 | oos | 0.003944 | 0.00392 | -0.60% | 0.003846 | -2.48% | 0.0182 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-28 | oos | 0.005021 | 0.004982 | -0.79% | 0.003944 | -21.45% | 0.2357 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-27 | oos | 0.005559 | 0.005509 | -0.89% | 0.005021 | -9.68% | 0.0808 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-26 | oos | 0.006251 | 0.006185 | -1.06% | 0.005559 | -11.07% | 0.1073 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-25 | oos | 0.007163 | 0.007045 | -1.65% | 0.006251 | -12.73% | 0.1234 | ✓ | 1.00 |