DRV

Derive · Ethereum · gru_s1

token id: #111
symbol: DRV
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0xb1d1eae60eea9525032a6dcb4c1ce336a1de71be
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-05-28
predictions: 417

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +7d

assessed

132

of 139 predictions shown

direction hit

59.8%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1601

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0330

actual +0.0596

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.40159	0.385419	-4.03%	–	pending	–	–	1.41
2026-10-21	oos	0.402115	0.386057	-3.99%	–	pending	–	–	1.42
2026-10-20	oos	0.398745	0.383629	-3.79%	–	pending	–	–	1.43
2026-10-19	oos	0.39882	0.384541	-3.58%	–	pending	–	–	1.43
2026-10-18	oos	0.38187	0.369602	-3.21%	–	pending	–	–	1.41
2026-10-17	oos	0.403015	0.388163	-3.69%	–	pending	–	–	1.41
2026-10-16	oos	0.387205	0.37351	-3.54%	–	pending	–	–	1.42
2026-10-15	oos	0.41127	0.394422	-4.10%	0.40159	-2.35%	0.0169	✓	1.39
2026-10-14	oos	0.416385	0.399918	-3.95%	0.402115	-3.43%	0.0358	✓	1.39
2026-10-13	oos	0.450845	0.427966	-5.07%	0.398745	-11.56%	0.0680	✓	1.38
2026-10-12	oos	0.4408	0.419487	-4.84%	0.39882	-9.52%	0.0522	✓	1.40
2026-10-11	oos	0.49633	0.467948	-5.72%	0.38187	-23.06%	0.1717	✓	1.57
2026-10-10	oos	0.538615	0.504475	-6.34%	0.403015	-25.18%	0.1947	✓	1.61
2026-10-09	oos	0.515775	0.480879	-6.77%	0.387205	-24.93%	0.1962	✓	1.61
2026-10-08	oos	0.436745	0.41126	-5.84%	0.41127	-5.83%	0.0082	✓	1.57
2026-10-07	oos	0.373545	0.355194	-4.91%	0.416385	+11.47%	0.1936	✗	1.67
2026-10-06	oos	0.407595	0.384835	-5.58%	0.450845	+10.61%	0.2055	✗	1.63
2026-10-05	oos	0.41208	0.388441	-5.74%	0.4408	+6.97%	0.2043	✗	1.63
2026-10-04	oos	0.41695	0.392457	-5.87%	0.49633	+19.04%	0.2891	✗	1.63
2026-10-03	oos	0.38453	0.363215	-5.54%	0.538615	+40.07%	0.4293	✗	1.61
2026-10-02	oos	0.39644	0.373761	-5.72%	0.515775	+30.10%	0.3600	✗	1.62
2026-10-01	oos	0.395175	0.371594	-5.97%	0.436745	+10.52%	0.2225	✗	1.61
2026-09-30	oos	0.38983	0.367436	-5.74%	0.373545	-4.18%	0.0219	✓	1.60
2026-09-29	oos	0.381685	0.359342	-5.85%	0.407595	+6.79%	0.0902	✗	1.59
2026-09-28	oos	0.36952	0.348412	-5.71%	0.41208	+11.52%	0.1262	✗	1.54
2026-09-27	oos	0.43524	0.407397	-6.40%	0.41695	-4.20%	0.0099	✓	1.38
2026-09-26	oos	0.412955	0.387536	-6.16%	0.38453	-6.88%	0.0131	✓	1.39
2026-09-25	oos	0.44425	0.415838	-6.40%	0.39644	-10.76%	0.0543	✓	1.34
2026-09-24	oos	0.45364	0.422309	-6.91%	0.395175	-12.89%	0.0737	✓	1.33
2026-09-23	oos	0.48606	0.44747	-7.94%	0.38983	-19.80%	0.1249	✓	1.32
2026-09-22	oos	0.436315	0.403028	-7.63%	0.381685	-12.52%	0.0124	✓	1.39
2026-09-21	oos	0.4043	0.373686	-7.57%	0.36952	-8.60%	0.0412	✓	1.42
2026-09-20	oos	0.391515	0.362158	-7.50%	0.43524	+11.17%	0.1222	✗	1.55
2026-09-19	oos	0.446505	0.403035	-9.74%	0.412955	-7.51%	0.0339	✓	1.51
2026-09-18	oos	0.29519	0.273746	-7.26%	0.44425	+50.50%	0.4245	✗	1.53
2026-09-17	oos	0.25509	0.240779	-5.61%	0.45364	+77.84%	0.4886	✗	1.45
2026-09-16	oos	0.24457	0.228926	-6.40%	0.48606	+98.74%	0.6046	✗	1.44
2026-09-15	oos	0.13705	0.138181	+0.82%	0.436315	+218.36%	0.9712	✓	1.36
2026-09-14	oos	0.140985	0.141902	+0.65%	0.4043	+186.77%	0.9060	✓	1.38
2026-09-13	oos	0.14356	0.145315	+1.22%	0.391515	+172.72%	0.9137	✓	1.40
2026-09-12	oos	0.14992	0.152343	+1.62%	0.446505	+197.83%	1.0056	✓	1.39
2026-09-11	oos	0.148505	0.152267	+2.53%	0.29519	+98.77%	0.5981	✓	1.38
2026-09-10	oos	0.147705	0.151974	+2.89%	0.25509	+72.70%	0.5213	✓	1.37
2026-09-09	oos	0.154095	0.158294	+2.73%	0.24457	+58.71%	0.4727	✓	1.36
2026-09-08	oos	0.16393	0.167921	+2.43%	0.13705	-16.40%	0.1526	✗	1.36
2026-09-07	oos	0.1575	0.162163	+2.96%	0.140985	-10.49%	0.1238	✗	1.39
2026-09-06	oos	0.16514	0.170754	+3.40%	0.14356	-13.07%	0.1107	✗	1.39
2026-09-05	oos	0.17224	0.177554	+3.09%	0.14992	-12.96%	0.1239	✗	1.38
2026-09-04	oos	0.14964	0.154657	+3.35%	0.148505	-0.76%	0.0053	✓	1.46
2026-09-03	oos	0.15856	0.163679	+3.23%	0.147705	-6.85%	0.0170	✓	1.43
2026-09-02	oos	0.14371	0.146727	+2.10%	0.154095	+7.23%	0.0300	✓	1.51
2026-09-01	oos	0.14284	0.145521	+1.88%	0.16393	+14.76%	0.0988	✓	1.51
2026-08-31	oos	0.153755	0.156434	+1.74%	0.1575	+2.44%	0.0016	✓	1.26
2026-08-30	oos	0.15632	0.157704	+0.89%	0.16514	+5.64%	0.0033	✓	1.26
2026-08-29	oos	0.1719	0.172678	+0.45%	0.17224	+0.20%	0.0244	✗	1.08
2026-08-28	oos	0.16944	0.168519	-0.54%	0.14964	-11.69%	0.1440	✓	1.08
2026-08-27	oos	0.17649	0.17431	-1.24%	0.15856	-10.16%	0.1078	✓	1.07
2026-08-26	oos	0.166915	0.163216	-2.22%	0.14371	-13.90%	0.1040	✓	1.06
2026-08-25	oos	0.14804	0.144773	-2.21%	0.14284	-3.51%	0.0016	✓	1.04
2026-08-24	oos	0.163815	0.156995	-4.16%	0.153755	-6.14%	0.0154	✓	1.03
2026-08-23	oos	0.13109	0.127324	-2.87%	0.15632	+19.25%	0.2060	✗	0.95
2026-08-22	oos	0.11334	0.11099	-2.07%	0.1719	+51.67%	0.4235	✗	0.92
2026-08-21	oos	0.11888	0.115501	-2.84%	0.16944	+42.53%	0.3889	✗	0.91
2026-08-20	oos	0.098475	0.096474	-2.03%	0.17649	+79.22%	0.5414	✗	0.66
2026-08-19	oos	0.09869	0.095642	-3.09%	0.166915	+69.13%	0.4617	✗	0.73
2026-08-18	oos	0.093475	0.090227	-3.48%	0.14804	+58.37%	0.3552	✗	0.72
2026-08-17	oos	0.095765	0.092152	-3.77%	0.163815	+71.06%	0.4278	✗	0.73
2026-08-16	oos	0.10351	0.097837	-5.48%	0.13109	+26.64%	0.1154	✗	0.83
2026-08-15	oos	0.092975	0.090104	-3.09%	0.11334	+21.90%	0.0611	✗	0.84
2026-08-14	oos	0.09274	0.089943	-3.02%	0.11888	+28.19%	0.0963	✗	0.84
2026-08-13	oos	0.09498	0.09195	-3.19%	0.098475	+3.68%	0.0487	✓	0.83
2026-08-12	oos	0.09864	0.09518	-3.51%	0.09869	+0.05%	0.0381	✓	0.84
2026-08-11	oos	0.097635	0.094269	-3.45%	0.093475	-4.26%	0.0235	✓	0.84
2026-08-10	oos	0.093365	0.090665	-2.89%	0.095765	+2.57%	0.0473	✗	0.84
2026-08-09	oos	0.09707	0.094089	-3.07%	0.10351	+6.63%	0.1215	✗	0.83
2026-08-08	oos	0.09736	0.094374	-3.07%	0.092975	-4.50%	0.0096	✓	0.83
2026-08-07	oos	0.096885	0.093942	-3.04%	0.09274	-4.28%	0.0120	✓	0.83
2026-08-06	oos	0.097805	0.094781	-3.09%	0.09498	-2.89%	0.0131	✓	0.84
2026-08-05	oos	0.100875	0.097561	-3.29%	0.09864	-2.22%	0.0265	✓	0.83
2026-08-04	oos	0.10167	0.098203	-3.41%	0.097635	-3.97%	0.0011	✓	0.84
2026-08-03	oos	0.09716	0.094516	-2.72%	0.093365	-3.91%	0.0180	✓	0.83
2026-08-02	oos	0.0997	0.096938	-2.77%	0.09707	-2.64%	0.0161	✓	0.83
2026-08-01	oos	0.105755	0.10226	-3.30%	0.09736	-7.94%	0.0784	✓	0.87
2026-07-31	oos	0.116685	0.110905	-4.95%	0.096885	-16.97%	0.1635	✓	0.88
2026-07-30	oos	0.094575	0.092217	-2.49%	0.097805	+3.42%	0.0668	✗	1.14
2026-07-29	oos	0.09668	0.094346	-2.41%	0.100875	+4.34%	0.0541	✗	1.16
2026-07-28	oos	0.10316	0.100447	-2.63%	0.10167	-1.44%	0.0084	✓	1.17
2026-07-27	oos	0.105835	0.102855	-2.82%	0.09716	-8.20%	0.0527	✓	1.18
2026-07-26	oos	0.114575	0.110832	-3.27%	0.0997	-12.98%	0.0738	✓	1.12
2026-07-25	oos	0.113675	0.110023	-3.21%	0.105755	-6.97%	0.0122	✓	1.14
2026-07-24	oos	0.11498	0.111214	-3.28%	0.116685	+1.48%	0.0706	✗	1.14
2026-07-23	oos	0.119115	0.115047	-3.41%	0.094575	-20.60%	0.1902	✓	1.13
2026-07-22	oos	0.121595	0.117416	-3.44%	0.09668	-20.49%	0.1566	✓	1.12
2026-07-21	oos	0.11994	0.115927	-3.35%	0.10316	-13.99%	0.0708	✓	1.12
2026-07-20	oos	0.123715	0.119243	-3.62%	0.105835	-14.45%	0.0914	✓	1.18
2026-07-19	oos	0.12307	0.118591	-3.64%	0.114575	-6.90%	0.0465	✓	1.19
2026-07-18	oos	0.1261	0.121266	-3.83%	0.113675	-9.85%	0.0554	✓	1.19
2026-07-17	oos	0.129925	0.124675	-4.04%	0.11498	-11.50%	0.0846	✓	1.24
2026-07-16	oos	0.135285	0.129478	-4.29%	0.119115	-11.95%	0.1082	✓	1.25
2026-07-15	oos	0.145845	0.138416	-5.09%	0.121595	-16.63%	0.1549	✓	1.21
2026-07-14	oos	0.1552	0.145166	-6.47%	0.11994	-22.72%	0.2188	✓	1.20
2026-07-13	oos	0.116895	0.112298	-3.93%	0.123715	+5.83%	0.0645	✗	0.70
2026-07-12	oos	0.12333	0.118099	-4.24%	0.12307	-0.21%	0.0317	✓	0.65
2026-07-11	oos	0.12402	0.118742	-4.26%	0.1261	+1.68%	0.0497	✗	0.65
2026-07-10	oos	0.11772	0.11278	-4.20%	0.129925	+10.37%	0.1439	✗	0.66
2026-07-09	oos	0.11437	0.109916	-3.89%	0.135285	+18.29%	0.2016	✗	0.65
2026-07-08	oos	0.10905	0.105058	-3.66%	0.145845	+33.74%	0.3037	✗	0.62
2026-07-07	oos	0.11054	0.106294	-3.84%	0.1552	+40.40%	0.3626	✗	0.61
2026-07-06	oos	0.11365	0.109187	-3.93%	0.116895	+2.86%	0.0847	✗	0.60
2026-07-05	oos	0.11218	0.107881	-3.83%	0.12333	+9.94%	0.1324	✗	0.60
2026-07-04	oos	0.10767	0.103561	-3.82%	0.12402	+15.19%	0.1740	✗	0.58
2026-07-03	oos	0.11031	0.105692	-4.19%	0.11772	+6.72%	0.0922	✗	0.61
2026-07-02	oos	0.112105	0.107346	-4.25%	0.11437	+2.02%	0.0454	✗	0.66
2026-07-01	oos	0.10732	0.102458	-4.53%	0.10905	+1.61%	0.0387	✓	0.64
2026-06-30	oos	0.11361	0.107999	-4.94%	0.11054	-2.70%	0.0401	✓	0.80
2026-06-29	oos	0.10568	0.101437	-4.01%	0.11365	+7.54%	0.0572	✗	0.91
2026-06-28	oos	0.10167	0.097578	-4.02%	0.11218	+10.34%	0.0796	✗	0.90
2026-06-27	oos	0.08732	0.085105	-2.54%	0.10767	+23.31%	0.1888	✗	0.91
2026-06-26	oos	0.08296	0.081092	-2.25%	0.11031	+32.97%	0.2666	✗	1.00
2026-06-25	oos	0.08304	0.08122	-2.19%	0.112105	+35.00%	0.2929	✗	1.00
2026-06-24	oos	0.082775	0.080819	-2.36%	0.10732	+29.65%	0.3005	✗	1.00
2026-06-23	oos	0.08616	0.083842	-2.69%	0.11361	+31.86%	0.3719	✗	1.00
2026-06-22	oos	0.087275	0.084842	-2.79%	0.10568	+21.09%	0.2807	✗	1.00
2026-06-21	oos	0.090795	0.088144	-2.92%	0.10167	+11.98%	0.2041	✗	1.00
2026-06-20	oos	0.098535	0.095337	-3.25%	0.08732	-11.38%	0.0187	✓	1.00
2026-06-19	oos	0.09513	0.092159	-3.12%	0.08296	-12.79%	0.0489	✓	1.00
2026-06-18	oos	0.09407	0.091204	-3.05%	0.08304	-11.73%	0.0420	✓	1.00
2026-06-17	oos	0.09792	0.094659	-3.33%	0.082775	-15.47%	0.0789	✓	1.00
2026-06-16	oos	0.10043	0.096785	-3.63%	0.08616	-14.21%	0.0699	✓	1.00
2026-06-15	oos	0.102	0.098313	-3.61%	0.087275	-14.44%	0.0834	✓	1.00
2026-06-14	oos	0.10087	0.097231	-3.61%	0.090795	-9.99%	0.0302	✓	1.00
2026-06-13	oos	0.10077	0.0973	-3.44%	0.098535	-2.22%	0.0158	✓	1.00
2026-06-12	oos	0.10217	0.098745	-3.35%	0.09513	-6.89%	0.0363	✓	1.00
2026-06-11	oos	0.10434	0.100764	-3.43%	0.09407	-9.84%	0.0579	✓	1.00
2026-06-10	oos	0.0986	0.096193	-2.44%	0.09792	-0.69%	0.0299	✓	1.00
2026-06-09	oos	0.10506	0.102395	-2.54%	0.10043	-4.41%	0.0812	✓	1.00
2026-06-08	oos	0.11139	0.107621	-3.38%	0.102	-8.43%	0.1033	✓	1.00
2026-06-07	oos	0.10365	0.101214	-2.35%	0.10087	-2.68%	0.0407	✓	1.00
2026-06-06	oos	0.09153	0.091819	+0.32%	0.10077	+10.10%	0.0359	✓	1.00