DRV

Derive · Ethereum · gru_s1

token id: #111
symbol: DRV
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0xb1d1eae60eea9525032a6dcb4c1ce336a1de71be
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-05-28
predictions: 414

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +1d

assessed

137

of 138 predictions shown

direction hit

56.9%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0537

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0106

actual +0.0087

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.386075	0.383128	-0.76%	–	pending	–	–	1.43
2026-10-20	oos	0.398745	0.395289	-0.87%	0.386075	-3.18%	0.0194	✓	1.43
2026-10-19	oos	0.39882	0.395322	-0.88%	0.398745	-0.02%	0.0105	✓	1.43
2026-10-18	oos	0.38187	0.379075	-0.73%	0.39882	+4.44%	0.0537	✗	1.41
2026-10-17	oos	0.403015	0.399184	-0.95%	0.38187	-5.25%	0.0552	✓	1.41
2026-10-16	oos	0.387205	0.383997	-0.83%	0.403015	+4.08%	0.0504	✗	1.42
2026-10-15	oos	0.41127	0.40735	-0.95%	0.387205	-5.85%	0.0402	✓	1.39
2026-10-14	oos	0.416385	0.412964	-0.82%	0.41127	-1.23%	0.0136	✓	1.39
2026-10-13	oos	0.450845	0.444953	-1.31%	0.416385	-7.64%	0.0405	✓	1.38
2026-10-12	oos	0.4408	0.435765	-1.14%	0.450845	+2.28%	0.0109	✓	1.40
2026-10-11	oos	0.49633	0.489747	-1.33%	0.4408	-11.19%	0.0686	✓	1.57
2026-10-10	oos	0.538615	0.528803	-1.82%	0.49633	-7.85%	0.0782	✓	1.61
2026-10-09	oos	0.515775	0.502648	-2.55%	0.538615	+4.43%	0.0620	✗	1.61
2026-10-08	oos	0.436745	0.427074	-2.21%	0.515775	+18.10%	0.1725	✗	1.57
2026-10-07	oos	0.373545	0.369546	-1.07%	0.436745	+16.92%	0.1991	✗	1.67
2026-10-06	oos	0.407595	0.402398	-1.28%	0.373545	-8.35%	0.0306	✓	1.63
2026-10-05	oos	0.41208	0.406428	-1.37%	0.407595	-1.09%	0.0068	✓	1.63
2026-10-04	oos	0.41695	0.41041	-1.57%	0.41208	-1.17%	0.0184	✗	1.63
2026-10-03	oos	0.38453	0.379934	-1.20%	0.41695	+8.43%	0.0597	✗	1.61
2026-10-02	oos	0.39644	0.391323	-1.29%	0.38453	-3.00%	0.0220	✓	1.62
2026-10-01	oos	0.395175	0.389154	-1.52%	0.39644	+0.32%	0.0251	✗	1.61
2026-09-30	oos	0.38983	0.384489	-1.37%	0.395175	+1.37%	0.0029	✓	1.60
2026-09-29	oos	0.381685	0.376342	-1.40%	0.38983	+2.13%	0.0368	✗	1.59
2026-09-28	oos	0.36952	0.365514	-1.08%	0.381685	+3.29%	0.0399	✗	1.54
2026-09-27	oos	0.43524	0.42681	-1.94%	0.36952	-15.10%	0.1276	✓	1.38
2026-09-26	oos	0.412955	0.406911	-1.46%	0.43524	+5.40%	0.0666	✗	1.39
2026-09-25	oos	0.44425	0.436508	-1.74%	0.412955	-7.04%	0.0606	✓	1.34
2026-09-24	oos	0.45364	0.443763	-2.18%	0.44425	-2.07%	0.0057	✓	1.33
2026-09-23	oos	0.48606	0.468491	-3.61%	0.45364	-6.67%	0.0323	✓	1.32
2026-09-22	oos	0.436315	0.422799	-3.10%	0.48606	+11.40%	0.1692	✗	1.39
2026-09-21	oos	0.4043	0.392306	-2.97%	0.436315	+7.92%	0.1128	✗	1.42
2026-09-20	oos	0.391515	0.380465	-2.82%	0.4043	+3.27%	0.0394	✓	1.55
2026-09-19	oos	0.446505	0.420987	-5.71%	0.391515	-12.32%	0.0712	✓	1.51
2026-09-18	oos	0.29519	0.285595	-3.25%	0.446505	+51.26%	0.4401	✗	1.53
2026-09-17	oos	0.25509	0.248469	-2.60%	0.29519	+15.72%	0.0889	✗	1.45
2026-09-16	oos	0.24457	0.234524	-4.11%	0.25509	+4.30%	0.0802	✗	1.44
2026-09-15	oos	0.13705	0.137114	+0.05%	0.24457	+78.45%	0.5686	✓	1.36
2026-09-14	oos	0.140985	0.141144	+0.11%	0.13705	-2.79%	0.0170	✓	1.38
2026-09-13	oos	0.14356	0.143687	+0.09%	0.140985	-1.79%	0.0439	✗	1.40
2026-09-12	oos	0.14992	0.150163	+0.16%	0.14356	-4.24%	0.0366	✗	1.39
2026-09-11	oos	0.148505	0.148839	+0.23%	0.14992	+0.95%	0.0063	✓	1.38
2026-09-10	oos	0.147705	0.147998	+0.20%	0.148505	+0.54%	0.0085	✗	1.37
2026-09-09	oos	0.154095	0.154415	+0.21%	0.147705	-4.15%	0.0138	✗	1.36
2026-09-08	oos	0.16393	0.164027	+0.06%	0.154095	-6.00%	0.0596	✗	1.36
2026-09-07	oos	0.1575	0.157781	+0.18%	0.16393	+4.08%	0.0496	✓	1.39
2026-09-06	oos	0.16514	0.165174	+0.02%	0.1575	-4.63%	0.0258	✗	1.39
2026-09-05	oos	0.17224	0.171113	-0.65%	0.16514	-4.12%	0.0443	✓	1.38
2026-09-04	oos	0.14964	0.149588	-0.03%	0.17224	+15.10%	0.1381	✗	1.46
2026-09-03	oos	0.15856	0.157972	-0.37%	0.14964	-5.63%	0.0260	✓	1.43
2026-09-02	oos	0.14371	0.143361	-0.24%	0.15856	+10.33%	0.0254	✗	1.51
2026-09-01	oos	0.14284	0.142381	-0.32%	0.14371	+0.61%	0.0111	✗	1.51
2026-08-31	oos	0.153755	0.152962	-0.52%	0.14284	-7.10%	0.0497	✓	1.26
2026-08-30	oos	0.15632	0.155212	-0.71%	0.153755	-1.64%	0.0239	✓	1.26
2026-08-29	oos	0.1719	0.169821	-1.21%	0.15632	-9.06%	0.0749	✓	1.08
2026-08-28	oos	0.16944	0.166925	-1.48%	0.1719	+1.45%	0.0239	✗	1.08
2026-08-27	oos	0.17649	0.172801	-2.09%	0.16944	-3.99%	0.0133	✓	1.07
2026-08-26	oos	0.166915	0.163344	-2.14%	0.17649	+5.74%	0.0608	✗	1.06
2026-08-25	oos	0.14804	0.145814	-1.50%	0.166915	+12.75%	0.1285	✗	1.04
2026-08-24	oos	0.163815	0.15913	-2.86%	0.14804	-9.63%	0.0663	✓	1.03
2026-08-23	oos	0.13109	0.128979	-1.61%	0.163815	+24.96%	0.2239	✗	0.95
2026-08-22	oos	0.11334	0.112095	-1.10%	0.13109	+15.66%	0.1485	✗	0.92
2026-08-21	oos	0.11888	0.116553	-1.96%	0.11334	-4.66%	0.0131	✓	0.91
2026-08-20	oos	0.098475	0.097607	-0.88%	0.11888	+20.72%	0.1508	✗	0.66
2026-08-19	oos	0.09869	0.097628	-1.08%	0.098475	-0.22%	0.0292	✓	0.73
2026-08-18	oos	0.093475	0.092731	-0.80%	0.09869	+5.58%	0.0125	✗	0.72
2026-08-17	oos	0.095765	0.094842	-0.96%	0.093475	-2.39%	0.0168	✓	0.73
2026-08-16	oos	0.10351	0.100828	-2.59%	0.095765	-7.48%	0.0730	✓	0.83
2026-08-15	oos	0.092975	0.092428	-0.59%	0.10351	+11.33%	0.1157	✗	0.84
2026-08-14	oos	0.09274	0.092224	-0.56%	0.092975	+0.25%	0.0075	✗	0.84
2026-08-13	oos	0.09498	0.094392	-0.62%	0.09274	-2.36%	0.0117	✓	0.83
2026-08-12	oos	0.09864	0.097873	-0.78%	0.09498	-3.71%	0.0302	✓	0.84
2026-08-11	oos	0.097635	0.096755	-0.90%	0.09864	+1.03%	0.0209	✗	0.84
2026-08-10	oos	0.093365	0.092767	-0.64%	0.097635	+4.57%	0.0562	✗	0.84
2026-08-09	oos	0.09707	0.096452	-0.64%	0.093365	-3.82%	0.0205	✓	0.83
2026-08-08	oos	0.09736	0.096737	-0.64%	0.09707	-0.30%	0.0042	✓	0.83
2026-08-07	oos	0.096885	0.096259	-0.65%	0.09736	+0.49%	0.0112	✗	0.83
2026-08-06	oos	0.097805	0.097205	-0.61%	0.096885	-0.94%	0.0114	✓	0.84
2026-08-05	oos	0.100875	0.100175	-0.69%	0.097805	-3.04%	0.0196	✓	0.83
2026-08-04	oos	0.10167	0.100664	-0.99%	0.100875	-0.78%	0.0051	✓	0.84
2026-08-03	oos	0.09716	0.096542	-0.64%	0.10167	+4.64%	0.0442	✗	0.83
2026-08-02	oos	0.0997	0.099148	-0.55%	0.09716	-2.55%	0.0198	✓	0.83
2026-08-01	oos	0.105755	0.104874	-0.83%	0.0997	-5.73%	0.0607	✓	0.87
2026-07-31	oos	0.116685	0.114055	-2.25%	0.105755	-9.37%	0.0747	✓	0.88
2026-07-30	oos	0.094575	0.094127	-0.47%	0.116685	+23.38%	0.2486	✗	1.14
2026-07-29	oos	0.09668	0.096181	-0.52%	0.094575	-2.18%	0.0318	✓	1.16
2026-07-28	oos	0.10316	0.102697	-0.45%	0.09668	-6.28%	0.0613	✓	1.17
2026-07-27	oos	0.105835	0.10531	-0.50%	0.10316	-2.53%	0.0234	✓	1.18
2026-07-26	oos	0.114575	0.113891	-0.60%	0.105835	-7.63%	0.0447	✓	1.12
2026-07-25	oos	0.113675	0.113055	-0.55%	0.114575	+0.79%	0.0050	✓	1.14
2026-07-24	oos	0.11498	0.114357	-0.54%	0.113675	-1.13%	0.0098	✓	1.14
2026-07-23	oos	0.119115	0.118451	-0.56%	0.11498	-3.47%	0.0129	✓	1.13
2026-07-22	oos	0.121595	0.120908	-0.57%	0.119115	-2.04%	0.0027	✓	1.12
2026-07-21	oos	0.11994	0.11929	-0.54%	0.121595	+1.38%	0.0264	✗	1.12
2026-07-20	oos	0.123715	0.122996	-0.58%	0.11994	-3.05%	0.0486	✓	1.18
2026-07-19	oos	0.12307	0.122374	-0.57%	0.123715	+0.52%	0.0012	✓	1.19
2026-07-18	oos	0.1261	0.125272	-0.66%	0.12307	-2.40%	0.0156	✓	1.19
2026-07-17	oos	0.129925	0.129065	-0.66%	0.1261	-2.94%	0.0406	✓	1.24
2026-07-16	oos	0.135285	0.13432	-0.71%	0.129925	-3.96%	0.0357	✓	1.25
2026-07-15	oos	0.145845	0.144081	-1.21%	0.135285	-7.24%	0.0452	✓	1.21
2026-07-14	oos	0.1552	0.150889	-2.78%	0.145845	-6.03%	0.0290	✓	1.20
2026-07-13	oos	0.116895	0.116118	-0.66%	0.1552	+32.77%	0.2602	✗	0.70
2026-07-12	oos	0.12333	0.122266	-0.86%	0.116895	-5.22%	0.0297	✓	0.65
2026-07-11	oos	0.12402	0.122959	-0.86%	0.12333	-0.56%	0.0033	✓	0.65
2026-07-10	oos	0.11772	0.116434	-1.09%	0.12402	+5.35%	0.0668	✗	0.66
2026-07-09	oos	0.11437	0.113514	-0.75%	0.11772	+2.93%	0.0267	✗	0.65
2026-07-08	oos	0.10905	0.108404	-0.59%	0.11437	+4.88%	0.0443	✗	0.62
2026-07-07	oos	0.11054	0.10966	-0.80%	0.10905	-1.35%	0.0050	✓	0.61
2026-07-06	oos	0.11365	0.112711	-0.83%	0.11054	-2.74%	0.0130	✓	0.60
2026-07-05	oos	0.11218	0.11139	-0.70%	0.11365	+1.31%	0.0161	✗	0.60
2026-07-04	oos	0.10767	0.106809	-0.80%	0.11218	+4.19%	0.0445	✗	0.58
2026-07-03	oos	0.11031	0.109178	-1.03%	0.10767	-2.39%	0.0194	✓	0.61
2026-07-02	oos	0.112105	0.111097	-0.90%	0.11031	-1.60%	0.0182	✓	0.66
2026-07-01	oos	0.10732	0.105817	-1.40%	0.112105	+4.46%	0.0418	✗	0.64
2026-06-30	oos	0.11361	0.111761	-1.63%	0.10732	-5.54%	0.0600	✓	0.80
2026-06-29	oos	0.10568	0.104606	-1.02%	0.11361	+7.50%	0.1078	✗	0.91
2026-06-28	oos	0.10167	0.10016	-1.49%	0.10568	+3.94%	0.0433	✗	0.90
2026-06-27	oos	0.08732	0.086911	-0.47%	0.10167	+16.43%	0.1638	✗	0.91
2026-06-26	oos	0.08296	0.082642	-0.38%	0.08732	+5.26%	0.0562	✗	1.00
2026-06-25	oos	0.08304	0.082724	-0.38%	0.08296	-0.10%	0.0022	✓	1.00
2026-06-24	oos	0.082775	0.08243	-0.42%	0.08304	+0.32%	0.0286	✗	1.00
2026-06-23	oos	0.08616	0.085716	-0.51%	0.082775	-3.93%	0.0080	✓	1.00
2026-06-22	oos	0.087275	0.086847	-0.49%	0.08616	-1.28%	0.0127	✗	1.00
2026-06-21	oos	0.090795	0.090302	-0.54%	0.087275	-3.88%	0.0453	✓	1.00
2026-06-20	oos	0.098535	0.097912	-0.63%	0.090795	-7.86%	0.0600	✓	1.00
2026-06-19	oos	0.09513	0.094565	-0.59%	0.098535	+3.58%	0.0294	✗	1.00
2026-06-18	oos	0.09407	0.09356	-0.54%	0.09513	+1.13%	0.0072	✗	1.00
2026-06-17	oos	0.09792	0.097294	-0.64%	0.09407	-3.93%	0.0091	✓	1.00
2026-06-16	oos	0.10043	0.099491	-0.94%	0.09792	-2.50%	0.0021	✓	1.00
2026-06-15	oos	0.102	0.101189	-0.79%	0.10043	-1.54%	0.0025	✓	1.00
2026-06-14	oos	0.10087	0.10006	-0.80%	0.102	+1.12%	0.0106	✗	1.00
2026-06-13	oos	0.10077	0.100093	-0.67%	0.10087	+0.10%	0.0119	✓	1.00
2026-06-12	oos	0.10217	0.101484	-0.67%	0.10077	-1.37%	0.0210	✓	1.00
2026-06-11	oos	0.10434	0.103501	-0.80%	0.10217	-2.08%	0.0125	✓	1.00
2026-06-10	oos	0.0986	0.097983	-0.63%	0.10434	+5.82%	0.0290	✗	1.00
2026-06-09	oos	0.10506	0.1043	-0.72%	0.0986	-6.15%	0.0523	✓	1.00
2026-06-08	oos	0.11139	0.10976	-1.46%	0.10506	-5.68%	0.0217	✓	1.00
2026-06-07	oos	0.10365	0.102727	-0.89%	0.11139	+7.47%	0.0848	✗	1.00
2026-06-06	oos	0.09153	0.091168	-0.40%	0.10365	+13.24%	0.0888	✗	1.00