BASED

Based · Ethereum · gru_s1

token id: #838
symbol: BASED
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0x4f2b33840227ddd0e28da8d4185d6fa07adfed87
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-03-30
predictions: 591

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +7d

assessed

190

of 197 predictions shown

direction hit

57.9%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1378

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0277

actual -0.0066

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.05086	0.0503	-1.10%	–	pending	–	–	0.81
2026-10-20	oos	0.050125	0.049472	-1.30%	–	pending	–	–	0.86
2026-10-19	oos	0.047365	0.046717	-1.37%	–	pending	–	–	0.84
2026-10-18	oos	0.048835	0.047983	-1.74%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-17	oos	0.05305	0.051828	-2.30%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-16	oos	0.056	0.054451	-2.77%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-15	oos	0.0446	0.043774	-1.85%	–	pending	–	–	0.90
2026-10-14	oos	0.043815	0.043009	-1.84%	0.05086	+16.08%	0.1553	✗	0.90
2026-10-13	oos	0.047865	0.046912	-1.99%	0.050125	+4.72%	0.0679	✗	0.84
2026-10-12	oos	0.05471	0.053739	-1.78%	0.047365	-13.43%	0.1273	✓	0.89
2026-10-11	oos	0.066235	0.064954	-1.93%	0.048835	-26.27%	0.2722	✓	0.64
2026-10-10	oos	0.068045	0.0667	-1.98%	0.05305	-22.04%	0.2162	✓	0.69
2026-10-09	oos	0.068525	0.067032	-2.18%	0.056	-18.28%	0.1711	✓	0.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.065965	0.064436	-2.32%	0.0446	-32.39%	0.3716	✓	0.69
2026-10-07	oos	0.06749	0.065733	-2.60%	0.043815	-35.08%	0.3919	✓	0.66
2026-10-06	oos	0.06713	0.065323	-2.69%	0.047865	-28.70%	0.2888	✓	0.77
2026-10-05	oos	0.06217	0.060774	-2.24%	0.05471	-12.00%	0.0690	✓	0.75
2026-10-04	oos	0.062415	0.060982	-2.30%	0.066235	+6.12%	0.1090	✗	0.79
2026-10-03	oos	0.06187	0.060433	-2.32%	0.068045	+9.98%	0.1361	✗	0.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.06284	0.061361	-2.35%	0.068525	+9.05%	0.1291	✗	0.80
2026-10-01	oos	0.065225	0.063656	-2.41%	0.065965	+1.13%	0.0655	✗	0.79
2026-09-30	oos	0.06616	0.064654	-2.28%	0.06749	+2.01%	0.0455	✗	0.77
2026-09-29	oos	0.0669	0.065317	-2.37%	0.06713	+0.34%	0.0137	✓	0.61
2026-09-28	oos	0.06719	0.065725	-2.18%	0.06217	-7.47%	0.0760	✓	0.75
2026-09-27	oos	0.07096	0.069337	-2.29%	0.062415	-12.04%	0.1181	✓	0.54
2026-09-26	oos	0.071135	0.069522	-2.27%	0.06187	-13.02%	0.1187	✓	0.54
2026-09-25	oos	0.069215	0.06789	-1.91%	0.06284	-9.21%	0.0798	✓	0.51
2026-09-24	oos	0.06689	0.065672	-1.82%	0.065225	-2.49%	0.0096	✓	0.51
2026-09-23	oos	0.06365	0.062599	-1.65%	0.06616	+3.94%	0.0603	✗	0.51
2026-09-22	oos	0.068925	0.06764	-1.87%	0.0669	-2.94%	0.0060	✓	0.56
2026-09-21	oos	0.06818	0.066931	-1.83%	0.06719	-1.45%	0.0294	✗	0.69
2026-09-20	oos	0.066145	0.065033	-1.68%	0.07096	+7.28%	0.0611	✗	0.66
2026-09-19	oos	0.06551	0.064499	-1.54%	0.071135	+8.59%	0.0726	✗	0.66
2026-09-18	oos	0.06518	0.064305	-1.34%	0.069215	+6.19%	0.0494	✗	0.62
2026-09-17	oos	0.06246	0.061789	-1.07%	0.06689	+7.09%	0.0224	✗	0.57
2026-09-16	oos	0.06142	0.060797	-1.01%	0.06365	+3.63%	0.0132	✓	0.57
2026-09-15	oos	0.0632	0.062538	-1.05%	0.068925	+9.06%	0.0444	✗	0.40
2026-09-14	oos	0.062645	0.062102	-0.87%	0.06818	+8.84%	0.0514	✗	0.41
2026-09-13	oos	0.06183	0.061248	-0.94%	0.066145	+6.98%	0.0540	✗	0.41
2026-09-12	oos	0.06403	0.063362	-1.04%	0.06551	+2.31%	0.0119	✗	0.43
2026-09-11	oos	0.064245	0.063463	-1.22%	0.06518	+1.46%	0.0061	✓	0.44
2026-09-10	oos	0.06059	0.060071	-0.86%	0.06246	+3.09%	0.0400	✗	0.40
2026-09-09	oos	0.06193	0.061481	-0.72%	0.06142	-0.82%	0.0098	✗	0.39
2026-09-08	oos	0.06767	0.06712	-0.81%	0.0632	-6.61%	0.0412	✓	0.51
2026-09-07	oos	0.06744	0.066911	-0.78%	0.062645	-7.11%	0.0598	✓	0.52
2026-09-06	oos	0.067405	0.066933	-0.70%	0.06183	-8.27%	0.0561	✓	0.52
2026-09-05	oos	0.068755	0.068124	-0.92%	0.06403	-6.87%	0.0445	✓	0.53
2026-09-04	oos	0.068655	0.067941	-1.04%	0.064245	-6.42%	0.0380	✓	0.57
2026-09-03	oos	0.06963	0.069127	-0.72%	0.06059	-12.98%	0.0984	✓	0.56
2026-09-02	oos	0.06727	0.065899	-2.04%	0.06193	-7.94%	0.0688	✓	0.53
2026-09-01	oos	0.067465	0.06607	-2.07%	0.06767	+0.30%	0.0165	✓	0.55
2026-08-31	oos	0.068375	0.067167	-1.77%	0.06744	-1.37%	0.0012	✓	0.43
2026-08-30	oos	0.06784	0.066436	-2.07%	0.067405	-0.64%	0.0036	✓	0.54
2026-08-29	oos	0.0706	0.069369	-1.74%	0.068755	-2.61%	0.0193	✓	0.52
2026-08-28	oos	0.07148	0.070107	-1.92%	0.068655	-3.95%	0.0331	✓	0.52
2026-08-27	oos	0.07326	0.072358	-1.23%	0.06963	-4.95%	0.0448	✓	0.52
2026-08-26	oos	0.072215	0.070885	-1.84%	0.06727	-6.85%	0.0413	✓	0.50
2026-08-25	oos	0.06901	0.067396	-2.34%	0.067465	-2.24%	0.0083	✓	0.50
2026-08-24	oos	0.072275	0.070784	-2.06%	0.068375	-5.40%	0.0320	✓	0.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.07345	0.071643	-2.46%	0.06784	-7.64%	0.0541	✓	0.54
2026-08-22	oos	0.07444	0.072474	-2.64%	0.0706	-5.16%	0.0345	✓	0.54
2026-08-21	oos	0.09093	0.089106	-2.01%	0.07148	-21.39%	0.2175	✓	0.46
2026-08-20	oos	0.084175	0.081493	-3.19%	0.07326	-12.97%	0.1423	✓	0.38
2026-08-19	oos	0.080745	0.077267	-4.31%	0.072215	-10.56%	0.1293	✓	0.47
2026-08-18	oos	0.078975	0.075427	-4.49%	0.06901	-12.62%	0.1868	✓	0.50
2026-08-17	oos	0.07742	0.074023	-4.39%	0.072275	-6.65%	0.1315	✓	0.53
2026-08-16	oos	0.077985	0.074371	-4.63%	0.07345	-5.82%	0.1302	✓	0.55
2026-08-15	oos	0.07977	0.076062	-4.65%	0.07444	-6.68%	0.1323	✓	0.55
2026-08-14	oos	0.07509	0.072619	-3.29%	0.09093	+21.09%	0.1024	✗	0.56
2026-08-13	oos	0.075375	0.07289	-3.30%	0.084175	+11.67%	0.0658	✗	0.56
2026-08-12	oos	0.07654	0.074013	-3.30%	0.080745	+5.49%	0.0281	✓	0.66
2026-08-11	oos	0.07666	0.073976	-3.50%	0.078975	+3.02%	0.0540	✗	0.63
2026-08-10	oos	0.07734	0.074544	-3.62%	0.07742	+0.10%	0.0315	✓	0.72
2026-08-09	oos	0.074055	0.071873	-2.95%	0.077985	+5.31%	0.1041	✗	0.71
2026-08-08	oos	0.077215	0.074938	-2.95%	0.07977	+3.31%	0.0835	✗	0.71
2026-08-07	oos	0.07789	0.075533	-3.03%	0.07509	-3.59%	0.0156	✓	0.72
2026-08-06	oos	0.08424	0.081521	-3.23%	0.075375	-10.52%	0.0683	✓	0.77
2026-08-05	oos	0.08051	0.077983	-3.14%	0.07654	-4.93%	0.0044	✓	0.77
2026-08-04	oos	0.07671	0.074885	-2.38%	0.07666	-0.07%	0.0293	✗	0.72
2026-08-03	oos	0.07648	0.074741	-2.27%	0.07734	+1.12%	0.0292	✗	0.72
2026-08-02	oos	0.07587	0.074283	-2.09%	0.074055	-2.39%	0.0175	✓	0.69
2026-08-01	oos	0.075195	0.073813	-1.84%	0.077215	+2.69%	0.0232	✗	0.65
2026-07-31	oos	0.07904	0.077424	-2.04%	0.07789	-1.45%	0.0150	✓	0.65
2026-07-30	oos	0.079515	0.077808	-2.15%	0.08424	+5.94%	0.0842	✗	0.68
2026-07-29	oos	0.080195	0.078582	-2.01%	0.08051	+0.39%	0.0170	✓	0.66
2026-07-28	oos	0.07921	0.077703	-1.90%	0.07671	-3.16%	0.0148	✓	0.61
2026-07-27	oos	0.079315	0.077861	-1.83%	0.07648	-3.57%	0.0157	✓	0.62
2026-07-26	oos	0.08704	0.085059	-2.28%	0.07587	-12.83%	0.0986	✓	0.55
2026-07-25	oos	0.08458	0.082819	-2.08%	0.075195	-11.10%	0.0841	✓	0.52
2026-07-24	oos	0.084415	0.082722	-2.00%	0.07904	-6.37%	0.0354	✓	0.51
2026-07-23	oos	0.07593	0.074943	-1.30%	0.079515	+4.72%	0.0622	✗	0.58
2026-07-22	oos	0.08425	0.082741	-1.79%	0.080195	-4.81%	0.0123	✓	0.56
2026-07-21	oos	0.08541	0.083771	-1.92%	0.07921	-7.26%	0.0323	✓	0.58
2026-07-20	oos	0.085835	0.08413	-1.99%	0.079315	-7.60%	0.0480	✓	0.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.09025	0.088281	-2.18%	0.08704	-3.56%	0.0194	✓	0.52
2026-07-18	oos	0.09212	0.090011	-2.29%	0.08458	-8.18%	0.0562	✓	0.77
2026-07-17	oos	0.09172	0.089595	-2.32%	0.084415	-7.96%	0.0619	✓	0.81
2026-07-16	oos	0.091335	0.089075	-2.47%	0.07593	-16.87%	0.1786	✓	0.95
2026-07-15	oos	0.08947	0.08733	-2.39%	0.08425	-5.83%	0.0504	✓	0.69
2026-07-14	oos	0.08738	0.085343	-2.33%	0.08541	-2.25%	0.0182	✓	0.82
2026-07-13	oos	0.094725	0.092266	-2.60%	0.085835	-9.39%	0.1203	✓	1.04
2026-07-12	oos	0.102185	0.099118	-3.00%	0.09025	-11.68%	0.1082	✓	0.99
2026-07-11	oos	0.098305	0.095288	-3.07%	0.09212	-6.29%	0.0506	✓	1.06
2026-07-10	oos	0.10396	0.100363	-3.46%	0.09172	-11.77%	0.0866	✓	0.94
2026-07-09	oos	0.11142	0.106671	-4.26%	0.091335	-18.03%	0.1645	✓	0.99
2026-07-08	oos	0.087055	0.084269	-3.20%	0.08947	+2.77%	0.0260	✓	0.87
2026-07-07	oos	0.08504	0.082309	-3.21%	0.08738	+2.75%	0.0383	✗	0.83
2026-07-06	oos	0.09485	0.091681	-3.34%	0.094725	-0.13%	0.0546	✗	0.80
2026-07-05	oos	0.09236	0.089279	-3.34%	0.102185	+10.64%	0.1328	✗	0.89
2026-07-04	oos	0.09202	0.088985	-3.30%	0.098305	+6.83%	0.0899	✗	0.90
2026-07-03	oos	0.09496	0.091781	-3.35%	0.10396	+9.48%	0.1021	✗	0.89
2026-07-02	oos	0.101225	0.097631	-3.55%	0.11142	+10.07%	0.1072	✗	0.92
2026-07-01	oos	0.13053	0.122418	-6.21%	0.087055	-33.31%	0.3827	✓	1.12
2026-06-30	oos	0.1002	0.095522	-4.67%	0.08504	-15.13%	0.1883	✓	0.91
2026-06-29	oos	0.081245	0.079047	-2.71%	0.09485	+16.75%	0.1143	✗	1.10
2026-06-28	oos	0.08065	0.078248	-2.98%	0.09236	+14.52%	0.1076	✗	0.87
2026-06-27	oos	0.074875	0.073013	-2.49%	0.09202	+22.90%	0.1859	✗	0.89
2026-06-26	oos	0.06701	0.065857	-1.72%	0.09496	+41.71%	0.3295	✗	0.89
2026-06-25	oos	0.07109	0.069675	-1.99%	0.101225	+42.39%	0.3471	✗	0.90
2026-06-24	oos	0.08342	0.080895	-3.03%	0.13053	+56.47%	0.4922	✗	0.81
2026-06-23	oos	0.09949	0.095187	-4.32%	0.1002	+0.71%	0.0984	✗	0.69
2026-06-22	oos	0.094245	0.090863	-3.59%	0.081245	-13.79%	0.0669	✓	0.74
2026-06-21	oos	0.09377	0.090082	-3.93%	0.08065	-13.99%	0.0654	✓	0.74
2026-06-20	oos	0.08845	0.085363	-3.49%	0.074875	-15.35%	0.0778	✓	0.77
2026-06-19	oos	0.097835	0.093323	-4.61%	0.06701	-31.51%	0.2855	✓	0.81
2026-06-18	oos	0.09533	0.090755	-4.80%	0.07109	-25.43%	0.2024	✓	0.81
2026-06-17	oos	0.077795	0.075307	-3.20%	0.08342	+7.23%	0.1567	✗	0.98
2026-06-16	oos	0.076135	0.073622	-3.30%	0.09949	+30.68%	0.3479	✗	1.01
2026-06-15	oos	0.078575	0.075257	-4.22%	0.094245	+19.94%	0.2609	✗	1.01
2026-06-14	oos	0.07155	0.06953	-2.82%	0.09377	+31.06%	0.3366	✗	0.98
2026-06-13	oos	0.0691	0.067456	-2.38%	0.08845	+28.00%	0.2741	✗	0.96
2026-06-12	oos	0.07492	0.072669	-3.00%	0.097835	+30.59%	0.2984	✗	1.01
2026-06-11	oos	0.07312	0.071151	-2.69%	0.09533	+30.37%	0.3034	✗	1.01
2026-06-10	oos	0.06286	0.062679	-0.29%	0.077795	+23.76%	0.1753	✗	0.85
2026-06-09	oos	0.06465	0.064301	-0.54%	0.076135	+17.76%	0.1163	✗	0.85
2026-06-08	oos	0.06474	0.064159	-0.90%	0.078575	+21.37%	0.1594	✗	0.87
2026-06-07	oos	0.07013	0.068815	-1.88%	0.07155	+2.02%	0.0068	✓	0.86
2026-06-06	oos	0.0664	0.066	-0.60%	0.0691	+4.07%	0.0010	✓	0.82
2026-06-05	oos	0.06214	0.062362	+0.36%	0.07492	+20.57%	0.1502	✓	0.83
2026-06-04	oos	0.06303	0.062742	-0.46%	0.07312	+16.01%	0.1564	✗	0.88
2026-06-03	oos	0.07015	0.069091	-1.51%	0.06286	-10.39%	0.0585	✓	0.87
2026-06-02	oos	0.06498	0.064302	-1.04%	0.06465	-0.51%	0.0891	✗	1.08
2026-06-01	oos	0.07125	0.069522	-2.43%	0.06474	-9.14%	0.0571	✗	1.04
2026-05-31	oos	0.07135	0.069441	-2.67%	0.07013	-1.71%	0.1786	✗	1.12
2026-05-30	oos	0.076975	0.074332	-3.43%	0.0664	-13.74%	0.1002	✗	1.11
2026-05-29	oos	0.07635	0.073442	-3.81%	0.06214	-18.61%	0.0360	✓	1.10
2026-05-28	oos	0.06089	0.059907	-1.61%	0.06303	+3.51%	0.2143	✗	1.15
2026-05-27	oos	0.062215	0.061205	-1.62%	0.07015	+12.75%	0.3087	✗	1.16
2026-05-26	oos	0.062175	0.061185	-1.59%	0.06498	+4.51%	0.2159	✗	1.21
2026-05-25	oos	0.068755	0.067293	-2.13%	0.07125	+3.63%	0.1470	✗	1.12
2026-05-24	oos	0.0685	0.067103	-2.04%	0.07135	+4.16%	0.1121	✗	1.12
2026-05-23	oos	0.07205	0.070393	-2.30%	0.076975	+6.84%	0.1326	✗	1.13
2026-05-22	oos	0.0711	0.069587	-2.13%	0.07635	+7.38%	0.1240	✗	1.12
2026-05-21	oos	0.084	0.081053	-3.51%	0.06089	-27.51%	0.2396	✓	0.87
2026-05-20	oos	0.07665	0.07464	-2.62%	0.062215	-18.83%	0.1453	✓	0.88
2026-05-19	oos	0.07077	0.069488	-1.81%	0.062175	-12.14%	0.1008	✓	0.85
2026-05-18	oos	0.07149	0.070196	-1.81%	0.068755	-3.83%	0.0241	✓	0.85
2026-05-17	oos	0.07044	0.069342	-1.56%	0.0685	-2.75%	0.0074	✓	0.87
2026-05-16	oos	0.07579	0.074405	-1.83%	0.07205	-4.93%	0.0166	✓	0.82
2026-05-15	oos	0.07491	0.073652	-1.68%	0.0711	-5.09%	0.0051	✓	0.86
2026-05-14	oos	0.08692	0.084852	-2.38%	0.084	-3.36%	0.0172	✓	0.61
2026-05-13	oos	0.08883	0.086723	-2.37%	0.07665	-13.71%	0.1085	✓	0.65
2026-05-12	oos	0.11052	0.106305	-3.81%	0.07077	-35.97%	0.3904	✓	0.35
2026-05-11	oos	0.10473	0.101166	-3.40%	0.07149	-31.74%	0.3201	✓	0.45
2026-05-10	oos	0.09826	0.094803	-3.52%	0.07044	-28.31%	0.2662	✓	0.51
2026-05-09	oos	0.09627	0.093419	-2.96%	0.07579	-21.27%	0.1933	✓	0.49
2026-05-08	oos	0.09008	0.088102	-2.20%	0.07491	-16.84%	0.1553	✓	0.49
2026-05-07	oos	0.091955	0.089773	-2.37%	0.08692	-5.48%	0.0387	✓	0.48
2026-05-06	oos	0.088045	0.086213	-2.08%	0.08883	+0.89%	0.0461	✗	0.61
2026-05-05	oos	0.09052	0.088337	-2.41%	0.11052	+22.09%	0.2272	✗	0.61
2026-05-04	oos	0.09472	0.092007	-2.86%	0.10473	+10.57%	0.1147	✗	0.64
2026-05-03	oos	0.09896	0.095718	-3.28%	0.09826	-0.71%	0.0047	✓	0.68
2026-05-02	oos	0.11639	0.111949	-3.82%	0.09627	-17.29%	0.1656	✓	0.59
2026-05-01	oos	0.11018	0.106089	-3.71%	0.09008	-18.24%	0.1782	✓	0.59
2026-04-30	oos	0.11237	0.10772	-4.14%	0.091955	-18.17%	0.1888	✓	0.64
2026-04-29	oos	0.12989	0.123833	-4.66%	0.088045	-32.22%	0.3907	✓	0.69
2026-04-28	oos	0.13847	0.131591	-4.97%	0.09052	-34.63%	0.4325	✓	1.00
2026-04-27	oos	0.136965	0.129203	-5.67%	0.09472	-30.84%	0.3421	✓	1.00
2026-04-26	oos	0.13381	0.127098	-5.02%	0.09896	-26.04%	0.2488	✓	1.00
2026-04-25	oos	0.134675	0.127502	-5.33%	0.11639	-13.58%	0.1044	✓	1.00
2026-04-24	oos	0.122685	0.116682	-4.89%	0.11018	-10.19%	0.0673	✓	1.00
2026-04-23	oos	0.13582	0.127331	-6.25%	0.11237	-17.27%	0.0994	✓	1.00
2026-04-22	oos	0.11474	0.109222	-4.81%	0.12989	+13.20%	0.2052	✗	1.00
2026-04-21	oos	0.13065	0.120708	-7.61%	0.13847	+5.99%	0.1377	✗	1.00
2026-04-20	oos	0.11396	0.105073	-7.80%	0.136965	+20.19%	0.2455	✗	1.00
2026-04-19	oos	0.0862	0.082465	-4.33%	0.13381	+55.23%	0.4204	✗	1.00
2026-04-18	oos	0.09122	0.087221	-4.38%	0.134675	+47.64%	0.4095	✗	1.00
2026-04-17	oos	0.12325	0.114895	-6.78%	0.122685	-0.46%	0.0609	✓	1.00
2026-04-16	oos	0.16615	0.145726	-12.29%	0.13582	-18.25%	0.1110	✓	1.00
2026-04-15	oos	0.085535	0.080692	-5.66%	0.11474	+34.14%	0.3080	✗	1.00
2026-04-14	oos	0.075145	0.071777	-4.48%	0.13065	+73.86%	0.5701	✗	1.00
2026-04-13	oos	0.0657	0.062924	-4.23%	0.11396	+73.46%	0.5750	✗	1.00
2026-04-12	oos	0.059505	0.057725	-2.99%	0.0862	+44.86%	0.3585	✗	1.00
2026-04-11	oos	0.054685	0.053195	-2.72%	0.09122	+66.81%	0.5037	✗	1.00
2026-04-10	oos	0.053855	0.052431	-2.64%	0.12325	+128.86%	0.8001	✗	1.00
2026-04-09	oos	0.05359	0.052232	-2.53%	0.16615	+210.04%	1.1114	✗	1.00
2026-04-08	oos	0.06194	0.060243	-2.74%	0.085535	+38.09%	0.2991	✗	1.00