BASED

Based · Ethereum · gru_s1

token id: #838
symbol: BASED
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0x4f2b33840227ddd0e28da8d4185d6fa07adfed87
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-03-30
predictions: 591

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +30d

assessed

167

of 197 predictions shown

direction hit

71.9%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.2424

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0737

actual -0.0910

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.05086	0.049828	-2.03%	–	pending	–	–	0.81
2026-10-20	oos	0.050125	0.048941	-2.36%	–	pending	–	–	0.86
2026-10-19	oos	0.047365	0.045842	-3.21%	–	pending	–	–	0.84
2026-10-18	oos	0.048835	0.047059	-3.64%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-17	oos	0.05305	0.051165	-3.55%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-16	oos	0.056	0.054034	-3.51%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-15	oos	0.0446	0.042589	-4.51%	–	pending	–	–	0.90
2026-10-14	oos	0.043815	0.041554	-5.16%	–	pending	–	–	0.90
2026-10-13	oos	0.047865	0.045248	-5.47%	–	pending	–	–	0.84
2026-10-12	oos	0.05471	0.052007	-4.94%	–	pending	–	–	0.89
2026-10-11	oos	0.066235	0.063195	-4.59%	–	pending	–	–	0.64
2026-10-10	oos	0.068045	0.064951	-4.55%	–	pending	–	–	0.69
2026-10-09	oos	0.068525	0.065206	-4.84%	–	pending	–	–	0.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.065965	0.062787	-4.82%	–	pending	–	–	0.69
2026-10-07	oos	0.06749	0.064093	-5.03%	–	pending	–	–	0.66
2026-10-06	oos	0.06713	0.063772	-5.00%	–	pending	–	–	0.77
2026-10-05	oos	0.06217	0.058876	-5.30%	–	pending	–	–	0.75
2026-10-04	oos	0.062415	0.059121	-5.28%	–	pending	–	–	0.79
2026-10-03	oos	0.06187	0.058551	-5.37%	–	pending	–	–	0.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.06284	0.059606	-5.15%	–	pending	–	–	0.80
2026-10-01	oos	0.065225	0.061884	-5.12%	–	pending	–	–	0.79
2026-09-30	oos	0.06616	0.063009	-4.76%	–	pending	–	–	0.77
2026-09-29	oos	0.0669	0.063997	-4.34%	–	pending	–	–	0.61
2026-09-28	oos	0.06719	0.064507	-3.99%	–	pending	–	–	0.75
2026-09-27	oos	0.07096	0.068488	-3.48%	–	pending	–	–	0.54
2026-09-26	oos	0.071135	0.069115	-2.84%	–	pending	–	–	0.54
2026-09-25	oos	0.069215	0.067036	-3.15%	–	pending	–	–	0.51
2026-09-24	oos	0.06689	0.064993	-2.84%	–	pending	–	–	0.51
2026-09-23	oos	0.06365	0.062173	-2.32%	–	pending	–	–	0.51
2026-09-22	oos	0.068925	0.067656	-1.84%	–	pending	–	–	0.56
2026-09-21	oos	0.06818	0.067312	-1.27%	0.05086	-25.40%	0.2484	✓	0.69
2026-09-20	oos	0.066145	0.064657	-2.25%	0.050125	-24.22%	0.2688	✓	0.66
2026-09-19	oos	0.06551	0.064264	-1.90%	0.047365	-27.70%	0.3100	✓	0.66
2026-09-18	oos	0.06518	0.063838	-2.06%	0.048835	-25.08%	0.2765	✓	0.62
2026-09-17	oos	0.06246	0.060872	-2.54%	0.05305	-15.07%	0.1739	✓	0.57
2026-09-16	oos	0.06142	0.059964	-2.37%	0.056	-8.82%	0.1075	✓	0.57
2026-09-15	oos	0.0632	0.061439	-2.79%	0.0446	-29.43%	0.3537	✓	0.40
2026-09-14	oos	0.062645	0.061207	-2.30%	0.043815	-30.06%	0.3517	✓	0.41
2026-09-13	oos	0.06183	0.060232	-2.58%	0.047865	-22.59%	0.2625	✓	0.41
2026-09-12	oos	0.06403	0.062261	-2.76%	0.05471	-14.56%	0.1534	✓	0.43
2026-09-11	oos	0.064245	0.062579	-2.59%	0.066235	+3.10%	0.0211	✓	0.44
2026-09-10	oos	0.06059	0.058881	-2.82%	0.068045	+12.30%	0.1126	✗	0.40
2026-09-09	oos	0.06193	0.060514	-2.29%	0.068525	+10.65%	0.1036	✗	0.39
2026-09-08	oos	0.06767	0.065881	-2.64%	0.065965	-2.52%	0.0194	✓	0.51
2026-09-07	oos	0.06744	0.065912	-2.27%	0.06749	+0.07%	0.0031	✓	0.52
2026-09-06	oos	0.067405	0.066081	-1.96%	0.06713	-0.41%	0.0166	✓	0.52
2026-09-05	oos	0.068755	0.067135	-2.36%	0.06217	-9.58%	0.1149	✓	0.53
2026-09-04	oos	0.068655	0.067094	-2.27%	0.062415	-9.09%	0.1192	✓	0.57
2026-09-03	oos	0.06963	0.068792	-1.20%	0.06187	-11.14%	0.1294	✓	0.56
2026-09-02	oos	0.06727	0.064238	-4.51%	0.06284	-6.59%	0.0693	✓	0.53
2026-09-01	oos	0.067465	0.064369	-4.59%	0.065225	-3.32%	0.0372	✓	0.55
2026-08-31	oos	0.068375	0.066034	-3.42%	0.06616	-3.24%	0.0246	✓	0.43
2026-08-30	oos	0.06784	0.065031	-4.14%	0.0669	-1.39%	0.0114	✓	0.54
2026-08-29	oos	0.0706	0.068279	-3.29%	0.06719	-4.83%	0.0494	✓	0.52
2026-08-28	oos	0.07148	0.069143	-3.27%	0.07096	-0.73%	0.0168	✓	0.52
2026-08-27	oos	0.07326	0.072868	-0.53%	0.071135	-2.90%	0.0502	✓	0.52
2026-08-26	oos	0.072215	0.07095	-1.75%	0.069215	-4.15%	0.0558	✓	0.50
2026-08-25	oos	0.06901	0.066741	-3.29%	0.06689	-3.07%	0.0337	✓	0.50
2026-08-24	oos	0.072275	0.070624	-2.28%	0.06365	-11.93%	0.1362	✓	0.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.07345	0.071079	-3.23%	0.068925	-6.16%	0.0866	✓	0.54
2026-08-22	oos	0.07444	0.071819	-3.52%	0.06818	-8.41%	0.1155	✓	0.54
2026-08-21	oos	0.09093	0.091124	+0.21%	0.066145	-27.26%	0.3367	✗	0.46
2026-08-20	oos	0.084175	0.07973	-5.28%	0.06551	-22.17%	0.2367	✓	0.38
2026-08-19	oos	0.080745	0.073662	-8.77%	0.06518	-19.28%	0.1949	✓	0.47
2026-08-18	oos	0.078975	0.070435	-10.81%	0.06246	-20.91%	0.2039	✓	0.50
2026-08-17	oos	0.07742	0.068885	-11.02%	0.06142	-20.67%	0.2029	✓	0.53
2026-08-16	oos	0.077985	0.069158	-11.32%	0.0632	-18.96%	0.1923	✓	0.55
2026-08-15	oos	0.07977	0.070754	-11.30%	0.062645	-21.47%	0.2404	✓	0.55
2026-08-14	oos	0.07509	0.066782	-11.06%	0.06183	-17.66%	0.1884	✓	0.56
2026-08-13	oos	0.075375	0.066987	-11.13%	0.06403	-15.05%	0.1547	✓	0.56
2026-08-12	oos	0.07654	0.06812	-11.00%	0.064245	-16.06%	0.1894	✓	0.66
2026-08-11	oos	0.07666	0.068226	-11.00%	0.06059	-20.96%	0.2366	✓	0.63
2026-08-10	oos	0.07734	0.068911	-10.90%	0.06193	-19.93%	0.2530	✓	0.72
2026-08-09	oos	0.074055	0.066264	-10.52%	0.06767	-8.62%	0.1151	✓	0.71
2026-08-08	oos	0.077215	0.069705	-9.73%	0.06744	-12.66%	0.1732	✓	0.71
2026-08-07	oos	0.07789	0.070548	-9.43%	0.067405	-13.46%	0.1984	✓	0.72
2026-08-06	oos	0.08424	0.076263	-9.47%	0.068755	-18.38%	0.2702	✓	0.77
2026-08-05	oos	0.08051	0.072988	-9.34%	0.068655	-14.72%	0.2224	✓	0.77
2026-08-04	oos	0.07671	0.069813	-8.99%	0.06963	-9.23%	0.1751	✓	0.72
2026-08-03	oos	0.07648	0.06964	-8.94%	0.06727	-12.04%	0.1758	✓	0.72
2026-08-02	oos	0.07587	0.069199	-8.79%	0.067465	-11.08%	0.1613	✓	0.69
2026-08-01	oos	0.075195	0.068752	-8.57%	0.068375	-9.07%	0.1519	✓	0.65
2026-07-31	oos	0.07904	0.072271	-8.56%	0.06784	-14.17%	0.2010	✓	0.65
2026-07-30	oos	0.079515	0.073161	-7.99%	0.0706	-11.21%	0.1643	✓	0.68
2026-07-29	oos	0.080195	0.073926	-7.82%	0.07148	-10.87%	0.1630	✓	0.66
2026-07-28	oos	0.07921	0.073321	-7.43%	0.07326	-7.51%	0.1403	✓	0.61
2026-07-27	oos	0.079315	0.073609	-7.19%	0.072215	-8.95%	0.1526	✓	0.62
2026-07-26	oos	0.08704	0.08104	-6.89%	0.06901	-20.71%	0.2621	✓	0.55
2026-07-25	oos	0.08458	0.078762	-6.88%	0.072275	-14.55%	0.1926	✓	0.52
2026-07-24	oos	0.084415	0.07863	-6.85%	0.07345	-12.99%	0.1672	✓	0.51
2026-07-23	oos	0.07593	0.071553	-5.77%	0.07444	-1.96%	0.0585	✓	0.58
2026-07-22	oos	0.08425	0.079406	-5.75%	0.09093	+7.93%	0.0398	✓	0.56
2026-07-21	oos	0.08541	0.080621	-5.61%	0.084175	-1.45%	0.0107	✓	0.58
2026-07-20	oos	0.085835	0.08067	-6.02%	0.080745	-5.93%	0.0274	✓	0.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.09025	0.084576	-6.29%	0.078975	-12.49%	0.0685	✓	0.52
2026-07-18	oos	0.09212	0.086324	-6.29%	0.07742	-15.96%	0.1050	✓	0.77
2026-07-17	oos	0.09172	0.08591	-6.33%	0.077985	-14.97%	0.0833	✓	0.81
2026-07-16	oos	0.091335	0.085399	-6.50%	0.07977	-12.66%	0.0569	✓	0.95
2026-07-15	oos	0.08947	0.083763	-6.38%	0.07509	-16.07%	0.0905	✓	0.69
2026-07-14	oos	0.08738	0.081747	-6.45%	0.075375	-13.74%	0.0612	✓	0.82
2026-07-13	oos	0.094725	0.087627	-7.49%	0.07654	-19.20%	0.1542	✓	1.04
2026-07-12	oos	0.102185	0.094302	-7.71%	0.07666	-24.98%	0.2039	✓	0.99
2026-07-11	oos	0.098305	0.090608	-7.83%	0.07734	-21.33%	0.1606	✓	1.06
2026-07-10	oos	0.10396	0.095673	-7.97%	0.074055	-28.77%	0.2667	✓	0.94
2026-07-09	oos	0.11142	0.102223	-8.25%	0.077215	-30.70%	0.3074	✓	0.99
2026-07-08	oos	0.087055	0.080096	-7.99%	0.07789	-10.53%	0.0641	✓	0.87
2026-07-07	oos	0.08504	0.078121	-8.14%	0.08424	-0.94%	0.0632	✓	0.83
2026-07-06	oos	0.09485	0.087557	-7.69%	0.08051	-15.12%	0.0914	✓	0.80
2026-07-05	oos	0.09236	0.085612	-7.31%	0.07671	-16.94%	0.1163	✓	0.89
2026-07-04	oos	0.09202	0.085419	-7.17%	0.07648	-16.89%	0.1159	✓	0.90
2026-07-03	oos	0.09496	0.088024	-7.30%	0.07587	-20.10%	0.1624	✓	0.89
2026-07-02	oos	0.101225	0.093478	-7.65%	0.075195	-25.71%	0.2366	✓	0.92
2026-07-01	oos	0.13053	0.118656	-9.10%	0.07904	-39.45%	0.4587	✓	1.12
2026-06-30	oos	0.1002	0.092124	-8.06%	0.079515	-20.64%	0.2393	✓	0.91
2026-06-29	oos	0.081245	0.076087	-6.35%	0.080195	-1.29%	0.0136	✓	1.10
2026-06-28	oos	0.08065	0.075533	-6.35%	0.07921	-1.79%	0.0142	✓	0.87
2026-06-27	oos	0.074875	0.07038	-6.00%	0.079315	+5.93%	0.0656	✗	0.89
2026-06-26	oos	0.06701	0.063418	-5.36%	0.08704	+29.89%	0.2410	✗	0.89
2026-06-25	oos	0.07109	0.066814	-6.02%	0.08458	+18.98%	0.1693	✗	0.90
2026-06-24	oos	0.08342	0.077232	-7.42%	0.084415	+1.19%	0.0486	✓	0.81
2026-06-23	oos	0.09949	0.091279	-8.25%	0.07593	-23.68%	0.2102	✓	0.69
2026-06-22	oos	0.094245	0.08682	-7.88%	0.08425	-10.61%	0.0542	✓	0.74
2026-06-21	oos	0.09377	0.086256	-8.01%	0.08541	-8.92%	0.0471	✓	0.74
2026-06-20	oos	0.08845	0.081704	-7.63%	0.085835	-2.96%	0.0375	✓	0.77
2026-06-19	oos	0.097835	0.089548	-8.47%	0.09025	-7.75%	0.0075	✓	0.81
2026-06-18	oos	0.09533	0.087096	-8.64%	0.09212	-3.37%	0.0319	✓	0.81
2026-06-17	oos	0.077795	0.072512	-6.79%	0.09172	+17.90%	0.2434	✗	0.98
2026-06-16	oos	0.076135	0.071047	-6.68%	0.091335	+19.96%	0.2800	✗	1.01
2026-06-15	oos	0.078575	0.072996	-7.10%	0.08947	+13.87%	0.2274	✗	1.01
2026-06-14	oos	0.07155	0.067032	-6.31%	0.08738	+22.12%	0.2758	✗	0.98
2026-06-13	oos	0.0691	0.064844	-6.16%	0.094725	+37.08%	0.4119	✗	0.96
2026-06-12	oos	0.07492	0.069432	-7.33%	0.102185	+36.39%	0.3832	✗	1.01
2026-06-11	oos	0.07312	0.067736	-7.36%	0.098305	+34.44%	0.3692	✗	1.01
2026-06-10	oos	0.06286	0.059538	-5.28%	0.10396	+65.38%	0.5209	✗	0.85
2026-06-09	oos	0.06465	0.061008	-5.63%	0.11142	+72.34%	0.5820	✗	0.85
2026-06-08	oos	0.06474	0.060935	-5.88%	0.087055	+34.47%	0.3682	✗	0.87
2026-06-07	oos	0.07013	0.064956	-7.38%	0.08504	+21.26%	0.2691	✗	0.86
2026-06-06	oos	0.0664	0.061908	-6.76%	0.09485	+42.85%	0.3852	✗	0.82
2026-06-05	oos	0.06214	0.05854	-5.79%	0.09236	+48.63%	0.4222	✗	0.83
2026-06-04	oos	0.06303	0.058935	-6.50%	0.09202	+45.99%	0.4556	✗	0.88
2026-06-03	oos	0.07015	0.064557	-7.97%	0.09496	+35.37%	0.4068	✗	0.87
2026-06-02	oos	0.06498	0.060316	-7.18%	0.101225	+55.78%	0.6050	✗	1.08
2026-06-01	oos	0.07125	0.065527	-8.03%	0.13053	+83.20%	0.8702	✗	1.04
2026-05-31	oos	0.07135	0.065683	-7.94%	0.1002	+40.43%	0.6791	✗	1.12
2026-05-30	oos	0.076975	0.070246	-8.74%	0.081245	+5.55%	0.3710	✗	1.11
2026-05-29	oos	0.07635	0.069424	-9.07%	0.08065	+5.63%	0.3816	✗	1.10
2026-05-28	oos	0.06089	0.056021	-8.00%	0.074875	+22.97%	0.5258	✗	1.15
2026-05-27	oos	0.062215	0.057283	-7.93%	0.06701	+7.71%	0.4045	✗	1.16
2026-05-26	oos	0.062175	0.057374	-7.72%	0.07109	+14.34%	0.5033	✗	1.21
2026-05-25	oos	0.068755	0.063286	-7.95%	0.08342	+21.33%	0.5420	✗	1.12
2026-05-24	oos	0.0685	0.063086	-7.90%	0.09949	+45.24%	0.6869	✗	1.12
2026-05-23	oos	0.07205	0.066193	-8.13%	0.094245	+30.80%	0.5576	✗	1.13
2026-05-22	oos	0.0711	0.06529	-8.17%	0.09377	+31.88%	0.5599	✗	1.12
2026-05-21	oos	0.084	0.076375	-9.08%	0.08845	+5.30%	0.3106	✗	0.87
2026-05-20	oos	0.07665	0.070052	-8.61%	0.097835	+27.64%	0.5099	✗	0.88
2026-05-19	oos	0.07077	0.064946	-8.23%	0.09533	+34.70%	0.5527	✗	0.85
2026-05-18	oos	0.07149	0.0656	-8.24%	0.077795	+8.82%	0.3208	✗	0.85
2026-05-17	oos	0.07044	0.06469	-8.16%	0.076135	+8.08%	0.3064	✗	0.87
2026-05-16	oos	0.07579	0.069467	-8.34%	0.078575	+3.67%	0.2587	✗	0.82
2026-05-15	oos	0.07491	0.068846	-8.10%	0.07155	-4.49%	0.1981	✗	0.86
2026-05-14	oos	0.08692	0.079682	-8.33%	0.0691	-20.50%	0.0014	✓	0.61
2026-05-13	oos	0.08883	0.081262	-8.52%	0.07492	-15.66%	0.0626	✓	0.65
2026-05-12	oos	0.11052	0.100606	-8.97%	0.07312	-33.84%	0.2370	✓	0.35
2026-05-11	oos	0.10473	0.095898	-8.43%	0.06286	-39.98%	0.2941	✓	0.45
2026-05-10	oos	0.09826	0.090243	-8.16%	0.06465	-34.21%	0.1861	✓	0.51
2026-05-09	oos	0.09627	0.087926	-8.67%	0.06474	-32.75%	0.1851	✓	0.49
2026-05-08	oos	0.09008	0.082412	-8.51%	0.07013	-22.15%	0.0466	✓	0.49
2026-05-07	oos	0.091955	0.084072	-8.57%	0.0664	-27.79%	0.1038	✓	0.48
2026-05-06	oos	0.088045	0.080968	-8.04%	0.06214	-29.42%	0.0898	✓	0.61
2026-05-05	oos	0.09052	0.083062	-8.24%	0.06303	-30.37%	0.1315	✓	0.61
2026-05-04	oos	0.09472	0.086443	-8.74%	0.07015	-25.94%	0.0681	✓	0.64
2026-05-03	oos	0.09896	0.089707	-9.35%	0.06498	-34.34%	0.2104	✓	0.68
2026-05-02	oos	0.11639	0.105232	-9.59%	0.07125	-38.78%	0.3316	✓	0.59
2026-05-01	oos	0.11018	0.09933	-9.85%	0.07135	-35.24%	0.2946	✓	0.59
2026-04-30	oos	0.11237	0.100505	-10.56%	0.076975	-31.50%	0.2449	✓	0.64
2026-04-29	oos	0.12989	0.115714	-10.91%	0.07635	-41.22%	0.3939	✓	0.69
2026-04-28	oos	0.13847	0.12349	-10.82%	0.06089	-56.03%	0.6696	✓	1.00
2026-04-27	oos	0.136965	0.122962	-10.22%	0.062215	-54.58%	0.6411	✓	1.00
2026-04-26	oos	0.13381	0.121097	-9.50%	0.062175	-53.53%	0.6298	✓	1.00
2026-04-25	oos	0.134675	0.121237	-9.98%	0.068755	-48.95%	0.5620	✓	1.00
2026-04-24	oos	0.122685	0.11098	-9.54%	0.0685	-44.17%	0.4762	✓	1.00
2026-04-23	oos	0.13582	0.122987	-9.45%	0.07205	-46.95%	0.5137	✓	1.00
2026-04-22	oos	0.11474	0.105182	-8.33%	0.0711	-38.03%	0.3556	✓	1.00
2026-04-21	oos	0.13065	0.117296	-10.22%	0.084	-35.71%	0.3495	✓	1.00
2026-04-20	oos	0.11396	0.10277	-9.82%	0.07665	-32.74%	0.3143	✓	1.00
2026-04-19	oos	0.0862	0.078847	-8.53%	0.07077	-17.90%	0.1472	✓	1.00
2026-04-18	oos	0.09122	0.084009	-7.90%	0.07149	-21.63%	0.1772	✓	1.00
2026-04-17	oos	0.12325	0.111455	-9.57%	0.07044	-42.85%	0.4629	✓	1.00
2026-04-16	oos	0.16615	0.141524	-14.82%	0.07579	-54.38%	0.6629	✓	1.00
2026-04-15	oos	0.085535	0.078689	-8.00%	0.07491	-12.42%	0.1041	✓	1.00
2026-04-14	oos	0.075145	0.069623	-7.35%	0.08692	+15.67%	0.1330	✗	1.00
2026-04-13	oos	0.0657	0.061256	-6.76%	0.08883	+35.21%	0.3086	✗	1.00
2026-04-12	oos	0.059505	0.054942	-7.67%	0.11052	+85.73%	0.5701	✗	1.00
2026-04-11	oos	0.054685	0.05075	-7.20%	0.10473	+91.52%	0.6127	✗	1.00
2026-04-10	oos	0.053855	0.049966	-7.22%	0.09826	+82.45%	0.5575	✗	1.00
2026-04-09	oos	0.05359	0.049633	-7.38%	0.09627	+79.64%	0.5462	✗	1.00
2026-04-08	oos	0.06194	0.05744	-7.27%	0.09008	+45.43%	0.3295	✗	1.00