ASTEROID1

? · · gru_s1

token id: #794
symbol: ASTEROID1
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-04-25
predictions: 513

Track record at +7d

assessed

164

of 171 predictions shown

direction hit

57.3%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.2423

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0182

actual -0.0929

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.001374	0.001353	-1.53%	–	pending	–	–	1.58
2026-10-20	oos	0.001259	0.001241	-1.41%	–	pending	–	–	1.54
2026-10-19	oos	0.001263	0.001245	-1.39%	–	pending	–	–	1.57
2026-10-18	oos	0.001148	0.001136	-1.07%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-17	oos	0.001229	0.001214	-1.26%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-16	oos	0.001277	0.001258	-1.43%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-15	oos	0.001258	0.001238	-1.57%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-14	oos	0.001084	0.001074	-0.85%	0.001374	+26.81%	0.2230	✗	1.68
2026-10-13	oos	0.001144	0.00113	-1.26%	0.001259	+10.01%	0.1113	✗	1.65
2026-10-12	oos	0.001126	0.001116	-0.97%	0.001263	+12.12%	0.1222	✗	1.67
2026-10-11	oos	0.001367	0.001344	-1.63%	0.001148	-15.95%	0.1251	✓	1.60
2026-10-10	oos	0.001357	0.001335	-1.59%	0.001229	-9.40%	0.0515	✓	1.67
2026-10-09	oos	0.00123	0.001215	-1.18%	0.001277	+3.78%	0.0704	✗	1.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.001355	0.001337	-1.30%	0.001258	-7.12%	0.0696	✓	1.67
2026-10-07	oos	0.001445	0.001423	-1.57%	0.001084	-25.04%	0.2381	✓	1.65
2026-10-06	oos	0.001564	0.001536	-1.77%	0.001144	-26.85%	0.2472	✓	1.65
2026-10-05	oos	0.001631	0.001599	-1.97%	0.001126	-30.95%	0.2693	✓	1.70
2026-10-04	oos	0.001638	0.001606	-1.92%	0.001367	-16.55%	0.1026	✓	1.77
2026-10-03	oos	0.001698	0.001661	-2.16%	0.001357	-20.08%	0.1630	✓	1.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.001759	0.001719	-2.25%	0.00123	-30.07%	0.2929	✓	1.79
2026-10-01	oos	0.001888	0.001844	-2.31%	0.001355	-28.26%	0.2424	✓	1.75
2026-09-30	oos	0.001874	0.001827	-2.53%	0.001445	-22.87%	0.2279	✓	1.81
2026-09-29	oos	0.001798	0.001755	-2.40%	0.001564	-13.01%	0.1533	✓	1.70
2026-09-28	oos	0.001702	0.001665	-2.16%	0.001631	-4.14%	0.0661	✓	1.68
2026-09-27	oos	0.001905	0.001856	-2.55%	0.001638	-14.04%	0.1679	✓	1.77
2026-09-26	oos	0.001983	0.001931	-2.60%	0.001698	-14.37%	0.1356	✓	1.76
2026-09-25	oos	0.002018	0.001963	-2.71%	0.001759	-12.83%	0.1186	✓	1.78
2026-09-24	oos	0.002258	0.002181	-3.42%	0.001888	-16.39%	0.1538	✓	1.76
2026-09-23	oos	0.001934	0.001885	-2.51%	0.001874	-3.10%	0.0114	✓	1.78
2026-09-22	oos	0.002158	0.002088	-3.27%	0.001798	-16.70%	0.0957	✓	1.79
2026-09-21	oos	0.001744	0.001704	-2.31%	0.001702	-2.41%	0.0664	✗	1.83
2026-09-20	oos	0.0015	0.001493	-0.47%	0.001905	+27.00%	0.1716	✗	1.81
2026-09-19	oos	0.001787	0.001762	-1.39%	0.001983	+10.97%	0.0497	✗	1.78
2026-09-18	oos	0.001831	0.001807	-1.32%	0.002018	+10.21%	0.0397	✗	1.82
2026-09-17	oos	0.001605	0.001616	+0.72%	0.002258	+40.69%	0.1608	✓	1.73
2026-09-16	oos	0.001692	0.001701	+0.51%	0.001934	+14.30%	0.0455	✗	1.70
2026-09-15	oos	0.001676	0.001691	+0.92%	0.002158	+28.79%	0.0410	✓	1.54
2026-09-14	oos	0.001803	0.001808	+0.31%	0.001744	-3.25%	0.1875	✗	1.48
2026-09-13	oos	0.001903	0.001904	+0.06%	0.0015	-21.18%	0.3228	✗	1.52
2026-09-12	oos	0.001828	0.001835	+0.40%	0.001787	-2.24%	0.1050	✗	1.56
2026-09-11	oos	0.001956	0.001955	-0.05%	0.001831	-6.39%	0.1373	✓	1.55
2026-09-10	oos	0.002041	0.002031	-0.45%	0.001605	-21.34%	0.2317	✓	1.58
2026-09-09	oos	0.002186	0.002164	-1.03%	0.001692	-22.60%	0.2021	✓	1.58
2026-09-08	oos	0.00224	0.002215	-1.08%	0.001676	-25.16%	0.2082	✓	1.90
2026-09-07	oos	0.002308	0.002279	-1.27%	0.001803	-21.90%	0.2125	✓	1.88
2026-09-06	oos	0.002546	0.002503	-1.71%	0.001903	-25.26%	0.1850	✓	1.97
2026-09-05	oos	0.002485	0.00244	-1.78%	0.001828	-26.42%	0.2260	✓	1.92
2026-09-04	oos	0.003024	0.002945	-2.61%	0.001956	-35.33%	0.3492	✓	1.91
2026-09-03	oos	0.003109	0.003019	-2.90%	0.002041	-34.38%	0.2758	✓	1.94
2026-09-02	oos	0.002326	0.002285	-1.78%	0.002186	-6.02%	0.0672	✓	1.84
2026-09-01	oos	0.002382	0.002336	-1.94%	0.00224	-5.98%	0.0670	✓	1.85
2026-08-31	oos	0.002634	0.002582	-1.99%	0.002308	-12.38%	0.1237	✓	1.74
2026-08-30	oos	0.002947	0.002869	-2.64%	0.002546	-13.61%	0.1770	✓	1.70
2026-08-29	oos	0.002557	0.002505	-2.04%	0.002485	-2.84%	0.0436	✓	1.75
2026-08-28	oos	0.002101	0.002065	-1.69%	0.003024	+43.96%	0.3409	✗	1.74
2026-08-27	oos	0.002319	0.002279	-1.72%	0.003109	+34.09%	0.2898	✗	1.70
2026-08-26	oos	0.002166	0.002121	-2.10%	0.002326	+7.39%	0.1293	✗	1.68
2026-08-25	oos	0.001937	0.001881	-2.87%	0.002382	+22.97%	0.2604	✗	1.69
2026-08-24	oos	0.00227	0.002208	-2.72%	0.002634	+16.04%	0.1842	✗	1.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.00236	0.002291	-2.91%	0.002947	+24.87%	0.2530	✗	1.55
2026-08-22	oos	0.00264	0.002561	-2.99%	0.002557	-3.14%	0.0258	✓	1.59
2026-08-21	oos	0.002582	0.002507	-2.91%	0.002101	-18.63%	0.1666	✓	1.61
2026-08-20	oos	0.003052	0.002923	-4.22%	0.002319	-24.02%	0.4385	✓	2.18
2026-08-19	oos	0.002289	0.002214	-3.28%	0.002166	-5.37%	0.2578	✓	1.80
2026-08-18	oos	0.00195	0.001894	-2.87%	0.001937	-0.67%	0.3064	✓	1.69
2026-08-17	oos	0.001986	0.001926	-3.02%	0.00227	+14.30%	0.1718	✓	1.66
2026-08-16	oos	0.001873	0.001818	-2.95%	0.00236	+26.00%	0.0868	✓	1.64
2026-08-15	oos	0.001955	0.001894	-3.11%	0.00264	+35.04%	0.0025	✓	1.64
2026-08-14	oos	0.002087	0.002017	-3.38%	0.002582	+23.72%	0.1124	✓	1.65
2026-08-13	oos	0.00194	0.001879	-3.17%	0.003052	+57.32%	0.2523	✗	1.66
2026-08-12	oos	0.002211	0.002127	-3.81%	0.002289	+3.53%	0.0769	✓	1.69
2026-08-11	oos	0.002031	0.001958	-3.60%	0.00195	-3.99%	0.0341	✓	1.68
2026-08-10	oos	0.001751	0.001698	-3.05%	0.001986	+13.42%	0.1419	✗	1.71
2026-08-09	oos	0.001717	0.001661	-3.25%	0.001873	+9.09%	0.1732	✗	1.69
2026-08-08	oos	0.001589	0.00154	-3.11%	0.001955	+23.03%	0.2880	✗	1.66
2026-08-07	oos	0.001601	0.001552	-3.06%	0.002087	+30.36%	0.3414	✗	1.51
2026-08-06	oos	0.002119	0.00204	-3.72%	0.00194	-8.45%	0.0291	✓	1.61
2026-08-05	oos	0.001998	0.001925	-3.66%	0.002211	+10.66%	0.1679	✗	1.58
2026-08-04	oos	0.002382	0.002237	-6.10%	0.002031	-14.74%	0.0842	✓	1.51
2026-08-03	oos	0.001356	0.001318	-2.79%	0.001751	+29.13%	0.2741	✗	1.41
2026-08-02	oos	0.001354	0.001317	-2.72%	0.001717	+26.81%	0.2353	✗	1.41
2026-08-01	oos	0.001573	0.001529	-2.77%	0.001589	+1.02%	0.0138	✓	1.55
2026-07-31	oos	0.001676	0.001628	-2.85%	0.001601	-4.47%	0.0670	✓	1.55
2026-07-30	oos	0.001696	0.001648	-2.86%	0.002119	+24.94%	0.2620	✗	1.48
2026-07-29	oos	0.001747	0.001696	-2.91%	0.001998	+14.37%	0.1473	✗	1.50
2026-07-28	oos	0.001803	0.00175	-2.92%	0.002382	+32.11%	0.3035	✗	1.45
2026-07-27	oos	0.002076	0.002	-3.67%	0.001356	-34.68%	0.3834	✓	1.44
2026-07-26	oos	0.002034	0.001965	-3.41%	0.001354	-33.43%	0.3297	✓	1.49
2026-07-25	oos	0.002304	0.002197	-4.63%	0.001573	-31.73%	0.2962	✓	1.58
2026-07-24	oos	0.002315	0.002172	-6.16%	0.001676	-27.60%	0.2318	✓	1.40
2026-07-23	oos	0.001482	0.001442	-2.67%	0.001696	+14.44%	0.1701	✗	1.61
2026-07-22	oos	0.00136	0.001328	-2.37%	0.001747	+28.46%	0.3307	✗	1.67
2026-07-21	oos	0.001551	0.001499	-3.38%	0.001803	+16.25%	0.2526	✗	1.65
2026-07-20	oos	0.001198	0.001173	-2.06%	0.002076	+73.29%	0.6052	✗	1.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.001223	0.001199	-1.93%	0.002034	+66.31%	0.5132	✗	1.47
2026-07-18	oos	0.001349	0.00132	-2.18%	0.002304	+70.79%	0.5687	✗	1.47
2026-07-17	oos	0.001424	0.001385	-2.77%	0.002315	+62.57%	0.5096	✗	1.51
2026-07-16	oos	0.001041	0.001029	-1.19%	0.001482	+42.36%	0.3362	✗	1.46
2026-07-15	oos	0.001046	0.001033	-1.23%	0.00136	+30.02%	0.2440	✗	1.47
2026-07-14	oos	0.001158	0.001141	-1.47%	0.001551	+33.94%	0.2729	✗	1.47
2026-07-13	oos	0.001046	0.001048	+0.20%	0.001198	+14.53%	0.0707	✓	1.36
2026-07-12	oos	0.001205	0.001198	-0.62%	0.001223	+1.49%	0.0021	✓	1.29
2026-07-11	oos	0.001323	0.001311	-0.94%	0.001349	+1.97%	0.0082	✓	1.30
2026-07-10	oos	0.001144	0.001143	-0.09%	0.001424	+24.48%	0.2247	✗	1.32
2026-07-09	oos	0.001093	0.001103	+0.94%	0.001041	-4.76%	0.0702	✗	1.28
2026-07-08	oos	0.001003	0.001027	+2.37%	0.001046	+4.29%	0.0291	✗	1.22
2026-07-07	oos	0.001139	0.001157	+1.55%	0.001158	+1.67%	0.0293	✗	1.17
2026-07-06	oos	0.001392	0.001399	+0.53%	0.001046	-24.86%	0.2603	✗	1.12
2026-07-05	oos	0.001462	0.001471	+0.61%	0.001205	-17.58%	0.2022	✗	1.13
2026-07-04	oos	0.001537	0.001549	+0.77%	0.001323	-13.92%	0.1700	✗	1.15
2026-07-03	oos	0.001855	0.00186	+0.25%	0.001144	-38.33%	0.5173	✗	1.24
2026-07-02	oos	0.001555	0.001583	+1.81%	0.001093	-29.71%	0.4001	✗	1.09
2026-07-01	oos	0.001815	0.001845	+1.66%	0.001003	-44.74%	0.6576	✗	1.29
2026-06-30	oos	0.001818	0.001859	+2.24%	0.001139	-37.35%	0.5929	✗	1.31
2026-06-29	oos	0.002226	0.002246	+0.92%	0.001392	-37.47%	0.5496	✗	1.15
2026-06-28	oos	0.002274	0.002299	+1.08%	0.001462	-35.71%	0.5301	✗	1.16
2026-06-27	oos	0.002491	0.002504	+0.54%	0.001537	-38.30%	0.5472	✗	1.15
2026-06-26	oos	0.002527	0.00254	+0.52%	0.001855	-26.59%	0.3616	✗	1.15
2026-06-25	oos	0.002311	0.00234	+1.26%	0.001555	-32.71%	0.4413	✗	1.11
2026-06-24	oos	0.002585	0.002596	+0.44%	0.001815	-29.79%	0.3403	✗	1.05
2026-06-23	oos	0.002713	0.00271	-0.10%	0.001818	-32.99%	0.3282	✓	1.05
2026-06-22	oos	0.003108	0.003082	-0.84%	0.002226	-28.38%	0.2666	✓	0.96
2026-06-21	oos	0.003271	0.003243	-0.87%	0.002274	-30.48%	0.2936	✓	1.00
2026-06-20	oos	0.003663	0.003608	-1.49%	0.002491	-32.00%	0.3051	✓	0.95
2026-06-19	oos	0.003814	0.003751	-1.65%	0.002527	-33.74%	0.3400	✓	0.98
2026-06-18	oos	0.004509	0.00437	-3.08%	0.002311	-48.75%	0.5807	✓	1.09
2026-06-17	oos	0.003947	0.003864	-2.10%	0.002585	-34.51%	0.3317	✓	1.27
2026-06-16	oos	0.003759	0.003686	-1.94%	0.002713	-27.83%	0.2445	✓	1.34
2026-06-15	oos	0.003974	0.003869	-2.64%	0.003108	-21.79%	0.1717	✓	1.33
2026-06-14	oos	0.003552	0.003493	-1.67%	0.003271	-7.91%	0.0175	✓	1.25
2026-06-13	oos	0.003566	0.003515	-1.44%	0.003663	+2.72%	0.0454	✗	1.27
2026-06-12	oos	0.003336	0.003311	-0.76%	0.003814	+14.33%	0.1427	✗	1.21
2026-06-11	oos	0.004303	0.004146	-3.65%	0.004509	+4.79%	0.0976	✗	1.26
2026-06-10	oos	0.002921	0.002955	+1.18%	0.003947	+35.12%	0.2690	✓	0.43
2026-06-09	oos	0.002752	0.002802	+1.85%	0.003759	+36.62%	0.2678	✓	0.42
2026-06-08	oos	0.0034	0.003398	-0.04%	0.003974	+16.88%	0.1450	✗	0.23
2026-06-07	oos	0.002709	0.002767	+2.15%	0.003552	+31.12%	0.2416	✓	0.21
2026-06-06	oos	0.002536	0.002622	+3.40%	0.003566	+40.62%	0.3104	✓	-0.05
2026-06-05	oos	0.00276	0.00284	+2.90%	0.003336	+20.87%	0.1626	✓	-0.04
2026-06-04	oos	0.003442	0.003474	+0.94%	0.004303	+25.01%	0.2115	✓	-0.64
2026-06-03	oos	0.003874	0.003882	+0.22%	0.002921	-24.60%	0.3108	✗	-0.64
2026-06-02	oos	0.003912	0.0039	-0.31%	0.002752	-29.67%	0.4006	✓	-0.67
2026-06-01	oos	0.004258	0.004187	-1.66%	0.0034	-20.15%	0.4065	✓	-1.61
2026-05-31	oos	0.00464	0.004528	-2.42%	0.002709	-41.62%	0.8340	✓	-2.13
2026-05-30	oos	0.005079	0.004933	-2.88%	0.002536	-50.07%	1.0781	✓	-2.14
2026-05-29	oos	0.005568	0.005374	-3.49%	0.00276	-50.43%	1.0485	✓	-2.08
2026-05-28	oos	0.005328	0.005156	-3.23%	0.003442	-35.40%	0.6977	✓	-2.07
2026-05-27	oos	0.006092	0.005779	-5.13%	0.003874	-36.41%	0.7393	✓	-2.28
2026-05-26	oos	0.00445	0.004339	-2.50%	0.003912	-12.09%	0.2787	✓	-1.36
2026-05-25	oos	0.00509	0.004891	-3.91%	0.004258	-16.35%	0.2829	✓	-1.81
2026-05-24	oos	0.004153	0.004063	-2.18%	0.00464	+11.73%	0.1781	✗	1.00
2026-05-23	oos	0.00441	0.004301	-2.47%	0.005079	+15.17%	0.2045	✗	1.00
2026-05-22	oos	0.004059	0.003994	-1.60%	0.005568	+37.18%	0.3602	✗	1.00
2026-05-21	oos	0.003775	0.003725	-1.32%	0.005328	+41.14%	0.4113	✗	1.00
2026-05-20	oos	0.003886	0.003831	-1.42%	0.006092	+56.77%	0.5055	✗	1.00
2026-05-19	oos	0.004278	0.004201	-1.81%	0.00445	+4.02%	0.0700	✗	1.00
2026-05-18	oos	0.005165	0.005027	-2.67%	0.00509	-1.45%	0.0085	✓	1.00
2026-05-17	oos	0.005415	0.005259	-2.88%	0.004153	-23.31%	0.2305	✓	1.00
2026-05-16	oos	0.00561	0.005438	-3.06%	0.00441	-21.39%	0.1908	✓	1.00
2026-05-15	oos	0.005628	0.005454	-3.08%	0.004059	-27.88%	0.2487	✓	1.00
2026-05-14	oos	0.006103	0.005889	-3.51%	0.003775	-38.15%	0.4001	✓	1.00
2026-05-13	oos	0.005994	0.005787	-3.45%	0.003886	-35.17%	0.3751	✓	1.00
2026-05-12	oos	0.006296	0.006051	-3.90%	0.004278	-32.05%	0.2994	✓	1.00
2026-05-11	oos	0.005912	0.005696	-3.65%	0.005165	-12.64%	0.0376	✓	1.00
2026-05-10	oos	0.005016	0.004879	-2.72%	0.005415	+7.95%	0.1642	✗	1.00
2026-05-09	oos	0.006054	0.005854	-3.30%	0.00561	-7.33%	0.0105	✓	1.00
2026-05-08	oos	0.006363	0.00614	-3.51%	0.005628	-11.55%	0.0729	✓	1.00
2026-05-07	oos	0.008334	0.007768	-6.79%	0.006103	-26.77%	0.2545	✓	1.00
2026-05-06	oos	0.006596	0.006256	-5.16%	0.005994	-9.13%	0.0160	✓	1.00
2026-05-05	oos	0.004356	0.00425	-2.43%	0.006296	+44.54%	0.3982	✗	1.00
2026-05-04	oos	0.004281	0.004176	-2.46%	0.005912	+38.10%	0.3245	✗	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.