ASTEROID1

? · · gru_s1

token id: #794
symbol: ASTEROID1
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-04-25
predictions: 513

Track record at +30d

assessed

141

of 171 predictions shown

direction hit

75.2%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.4635

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0666

actual -0.3451

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.001374	0.001326	-3.52%	–	pending	–	–	1.58
2026-10-20	oos	0.001259	0.001219	-3.10%	–	pending	–	–	1.54
2026-10-19	oos	0.001263	0.001222	-3.26%	–	pending	–	–	1.57
2026-10-18	oos	0.001148	0.001109	-3.41%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-17	oos	0.001229	0.001183	-3.78%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-16	oos	0.001277	0.001225	-4.04%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-15	oos	0.001258	0.001205	-4.23%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-14	oos	0.001084	0.001037	-4.27%	–	pending	–	–	1.68
2026-10-13	oos	0.001144	0.001093	-4.45%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-12	oos	0.001126	0.001074	-4.65%	–	pending	–	–	1.67
2026-10-11	oos	0.001367	0.001308	-4.28%	–	pending	–	–	1.60
2026-10-10	oos	0.001357	0.001296	-4.52%	–	pending	–	–	1.67
2026-10-09	oos	0.00123	0.001171	-4.82%	–	pending	–	–	1.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.001355	0.001289	-4.85%	–	pending	–	–	1.67
2026-10-07	oos	0.001445	0.001375	-4.87%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-06	oos	0.001564	0.001493	-4.52%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-05	oos	0.001631	0.001555	-4.69%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-04	oos	0.001638	0.001566	-4.39%	–	pending	–	–	1.77
2026-10-03	oos	0.001698	0.00161	-5.17%	–	pending	–	–	1.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.001759	0.001664	-5.37%	–	pending	–	–	1.79
2026-10-01	oos	0.001888	0.001786	-5.42%	–	pending	–	–	1.75
2026-09-30	oos	0.001874	0.00176	-6.07%	–	pending	–	–	1.81
2026-09-29	oos	0.001798	0.001689	-6.04%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-09-28	oos	0.001702	0.001601	-5.92%	–	pending	–	–	1.68
2026-09-27	oos	0.001905	0.001786	-6.23%	–	pending	–	–	1.77
2026-09-26	oos	0.001983	0.001856	-6.42%	–	pending	–	–	1.76
2026-09-25	oos	0.002018	0.001885	-6.60%	–	pending	–	–	1.78
2026-09-24	oos	0.002258	0.002102	-6.91%	–	pending	–	–	1.76
2026-09-23	oos	0.001934	0.001821	-5.86%	–	pending	–	–	1.78
2026-09-22	oos	0.002158	0.002042	-5.39%	–	pending	–	–	1.79
2026-09-21	oos	0.001744	0.00167	-4.23%	0.001374	-21.22%	0.1110	✓	1.83
2026-09-20	oos	0.0015	0.001418	-5.49%	0.001259	-16.10%	0.1582	✓	1.81
2026-09-19	oos	0.001787	0.001687	-5.62%	0.001263	-29.32%	0.3024	✓	1.78
2026-09-18	oos	0.001831	0.001727	-5.66%	0.001148	-37.27%	0.4334	✓	1.82
2026-09-17	oos	0.001605	0.001512	-5.80%	0.001229	-23.40%	0.3174	✓	1.73
2026-09-16	oos	0.001692	0.001587	-6.19%	0.001277	-24.56%	0.3331	✓	1.70
2026-09-15	oos	0.001676	0.001571	-6.27%	0.001258	-24.94%	0.3502	✓	1.54
2026-09-14	oos	0.001803	0.00169	-6.23%	0.001084	-39.89%	0.5075	✓	1.48
2026-09-13	oos	0.001903	0.001775	-6.72%	0.001144	-39.88%	0.5596	✓	1.52
2026-09-12	oos	0.001828	0.001699	-7.03%	0.001126	-38.38%	0.4992	✓	1.56
2026-09-11	oos	0.001956	0.001816	-7.17%	0.001367	-30.14%	0.4088	✓	1.55
2026-09-10	oos	0.002041	0.001885	-7.61%	0.001357	-33.50%	0.4549	✓	1.58
2026-09-09	oos	0.002186	0.002019	-7.65%	0.00123	-43.73%	0.5791	✓	1.58
2026-09-08	oos	0.00224	0.002073	-7.42%	0.001355	-39.52%	0.5028	✓	1.90
2026-09-07	oos	0.002308	0.002142	-7.20%	0.001445	-37.37%	0.4903	✓	1.88
2026-09-06	oos	0.002546	0.002362	-7.22%	0.001564	-38.57%	0.5360	✓	1.97
2026-09-05	oos	0.002485	0.002299	-7.48%	0.001631	-34.33%	0.4804	✓	1.92
2026-09-04	oos	0.003024	0.002786	-7.90%	0.001638	-45.86%	0.6887	✓	1.91
2026-09-03	oos	0.003109	0.00289	-7.06%	0.001698	-45.39%	0.6129	✓	1.94
2026-09-02	oos	0.002326	0.00215	-7.59%	0.001759	-24.38%	0.3639	✓	1.84
2026-09-01	oos	0.002382	0.002206	-7.38%	0.001888	-20.74%	0.3260	✓	1.85
2026-08-31	oos	0.002634	0.002465	-6.42%	0.001874	-28.85%	0.3809	✓	1.74
2026-08-30	oos	0.002947	0.002759	-6.38%	0.001798	-38.99%	0.5541	✓	1.70
2026-08-29	oos	0.002557	0.002416	-5.51%	0.001702	-33.44%	0.4636	✓	1.75
2026-08-28	oos	0.002101	0.001984	-5.58%	0.001905	-9.33%	0.1824	✓	1.74
2026-08-27	oos	0.002319	0.00222	-4.26%	0.001983	-14.49%	0.1985	✓	1.70
2026-08-26	oos	0.002166	0.002051	-5.30%	0.002018	-6.83%	0.1204	✓	1.68
2026-08-25	oos	0.001937	0.001798	-7.17%	0.002258	+16.57%	0.1061	✗	1.69
2026-08-24	oos	0.00227	0.002131	-6.11%	0.001934	-14.80%	0.1953	✓	1.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.00236	0.002208	-6.43%	0.002158	-8.54%	0.1832	✓	1.55
2026-08-22	oos	0.00264	0.002479	-6.10%	0.001744	-33.94%	0.5378	✓	1.59
2026-08-21	oos	0.002582	0.002443	-5.39%	0.0015	-41.91%	0.5450	✓	1.61
2026-08-20	oos	0.003052	0.002836	-7.08%	0.001787	-41.45%	0.6948	✓	2.18
2026-08-19	oos	0.002289	0.002124	-7.22%	0.001831	-20.01%	0.4258	✓	1.80
2026-08-18	oos	0.00195	0.001792	-8.10%	0.001605	-17.69%	0.3914	✓	1.69
2026-08-17	oos	0.001986	0.001821	-8.30%	0.001692	-14.80%	0.3492	✓	1.66
2026-08-16	oos	0.001873	0.001707	-8.85%	0.001676	-10.52%	0.3206	✓	1.64
2026-08-15	oos	0.001955	0.00178	-8.95%	0.001803	-7.80%	0.3407	✓	1.64
2026-08-14	oos	0.002087	0.001899	-9.02%	0.001903	-8.82%	0.3250	✓	1.65
2026-08-13	oos	0.00194	0.001766	-8.96%	0.001828	-5.77%	0.2923	✓	1.66
2026-08-12	oos	0.002211	0.002006	-9.26%	0.001956	-11.53%	0.3588	✓	1.69
2026-08-11	oos	0.002031	0.001853	-8.79%	0.002041	+0.47%	0.2163	✓	1.68
2026-08-10	oos	0.001751	0.001603	-8.47%	0.002186	+24.84%	0.0357	✓	1.71
2026-08-09	oos	0.001717	0.001568	-8.66%	0.00224	+30.43%	0.0353	✓	1.69
2026-08-08	oos	0.001589	0.001448	-8.87%	0.002308	+45.25%	0.1379	✗	1.66
2026-08-07	oos	0.001601	0.00146	-8.83%	0.002546	+59.03%	0.2341	✗	1.51
2026-08-06	oos	0.002119	0.001927	-9.06%	0.002485	+17.25%	0.0955	✓	1.61
2026-08-05	oos	0.001998	0.001819	-8.96%	0.003024	+51.38%	0.1777	✗	1.58
2026-08-04	oos	0.002382	0.00214	-10.18%	0.003109	+30.54%	0.0155	✓	1.51
2026-08-03	oos	0.001356	0.001247	-8.01%	0.002326	+71.53%	0.3446	✗	1.41
2026-08-02	oos	0.001354	0.001246	-7.96%	0.002382	+75.92%	0.3678	✗	1.41
2026-08-01	oos	0.001573	0.00145	-7.81%	0.002634	+67.45%	0.2494	✗	1.55
2026-07-31	oos	0.001676	0.001545	-7.79%	0.002947	+75.84%	0.3171	✗	1.55
2026-07-30	oos	0.001696	0.001569	-7.47%	0.002557	+50.77%	0.2085	✗	1.48
2026-07-29	oos	0.001747	0.001615	-7.56%	0.002101	+20.26%	0.0327	✓	1.50
2026-07-28	oos	0.001803	0.001665	-7.67%	0.002319	+28.62%	0.0015	✓	1.45
2026-07-27	oos	0.002076	0.001894	-8.75%	0.002166	+4.34%	0.1759	✓	1.44
2026-07-26	oos	0.002034	0.001869	-8.09%	0.001937	-4.77%	0.2381	✓	1.49
2026-07-25	oos	0.002304	0.002078	-9.80%	0.00227	-1.48%	0.2367	✓	1.58
2026-07-24	oos	0.002315	0.002085	-9.91%	0.00236	+1.94%	0.1461	✓	1.40
2026-07-23	oos	0.001482	0.001405	-5.20%	0.00264	+78.14%	0.3585	✗	1.61
2026-07-22	oos	0.00136	0.001297	-4.60%	0.002582	+89.85%	0.4046	✗	1.67
2026-07-21	oos	0.001551	0.001478	-4.68%	0.003052	+96.78%	0.5708	✗	1.65
2026-07-20	oos	0.001198	0.001146	-4.33%	0.002289	+91.07%	0.6024	✗	1.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.001223	0.001171	-4.23%	0.00195	+59.44%	0.5097	✗	1.47
2026-07-18	oos	0.001349	0.001294	-4.09%	0.001986	+47.22%	0.4358	✗	1.47
2026-07-17	oos	0.001424	0.001365	-4.16%	0.001873	+31.53%	0.3417	✗	1.51
2026-07-16	oos	0.001041	0.000996839	-4.24%	0.001955	+87.80%	0.6908	✗	1.46
2026-07-15	oos	0.001046	0.001002	-4.20%	0.002087	+99.52%	0.7738	✗	1.47
2026-07-14	oos	0.001158	0.001115	-3.68%	0.00194	+67.53%	0.5892	✗	1.47
2026-07-13	oos	0.001046	0.001011	-3.33%	0.002211	+111.38%	0.7575	✗	1.36
2026-07-12	oos	0.001205	0.00117	-2.90%	0.002031	+68.55%	0.5557	✗	1.29
2026-07-11	oos	0.001323	0.001289	-2.56%	0.001751	+32.35%	0.3034	✗	1.30
2026-07-10	oos	0.001144	0.00111	-3.00%	0.001717	+50.09%	0.4217	✗	1.32
2026-07-09	oos	0.001093	0.00106	-2.98%	0.001589	+45.38%	0.3697	✗	1.28
2026-07-08	oos	0.001003	0.000973645	-2.93%	0.001601	+59.62%	0.4464	✗	1.22
2026-07-07	oos	0.001139	0.001115	-2.12%	0.002119	+86.04%	0.6249	✗	1.17
2026-07-06	oos	0.001392	0.001376	-1.17%	0.001998	+43.53%	0.3627	✗	1.12
2026-07-05	oos	0.001462	0.001443	-1.28%	0.002382	+62.93%	0.4927	✗	1.13
2026-07-04	oos	0.001537	0.001521	-1.06%	0.001356	-11.78%	0.1215	✓	1.15
2026-07-03	oos	0.001855	0.001849	-0.30%	0.001354	-27.01%	0.3311	✓	1.24
2026-07-02	oos	0.001555	0.001546	-0.57%	0.001573	+1.16%	0.0053	✓	1.09
2026-07-01	oos	0.001815	0.001816	+0.04%	0.001676	-7.66%	0.1403	✗	1.29
2026-06-30	oos	0.001818	0.001823	+0.28%	0.001696	-6.71%	0.2039	✗	1.31
2026-06-29	oos	0.002226	0.002223	-0.12%	0.001747	-21.52%	0.3102	✓	1.15
2026-06-28	oos	0.002274	0.002271	-0.12%	0.001803	-20.71%	0.3133	✓	1.16
2026-06-27	oos	0.002491	0.002468	-0.92%	0.002076	-16.66%	0.2430	✓	1.15
2026-06-26	oos	0.002527	0.002501	-1.02%	0.002034	-19.51%	0.3048	✓	1.15
2026-06-25	oos	0.002311	0.002296	-0.65%	0.002304	-0.30%	0.0785	✓	1.11
2026-06-24	oos	0.002585	0.002554	-1.19%	0.002315	-10.44%	0.1505	✓	1.05
2026-06-23	oos	0.002713	0.002662	-1.88%	0.001482	-45.37%	0.6251	✓	1.05
2026-06-22	oos	0.003108	0.00302	-2.82%	0.00136	-56.24%	0.8295	✓	0.96
2026-06-21	oos	0.003271	0.003163	-3.30%	0.001551	-52.58%	0.7631	✓	1.00
2026-06-20	oos	0.003663	0.003504	-4.35%	0.001198	-67.29%	1.0877	✓	0.95
2026-06-19	oos	0.003814	0.003629	-4.86%	0.001223	-67.93%	1.1060	✓	0.98
2026-06-18	oos	0.004509	0.00419	-7.08%	0.001349	-70.08%	1.1660	✓	1.09
2026-06-17	oos	0.003947	0.003725	-5.62%	0.001424	-63.92%	0.9507	✓	1.27
2026-06-16	oos	0.003759	0.003557	-5.37%	0.001041	-72.31%	1.1906	✓	1.34
2026-06-15	oos	0.003974	0.003729	-6.17%	0.001046	-73.68%	1.2396	✓	1.33
2026-06-14	oos	0.003552	0.003359	-5.43%	0.001158	-67.40%	1.0512	✓	1.25
2026-06-13	oos	0.003566	0.003365	-5.63%	0.001046	-70.67%	1.1250	✓	1.27
2026-06-12	oos	0.003336	0.00316	-5.27%	0.001205	-63.88%	0.9680	✓	1.21
2026-06-11	oos	0.004303	0.003956	-8.07%	0.001323	-69.25%	1.0994	✓	1.26
2026-06-10	oos	0.002921	0.002776	-4.95%	0.001144	-60.84%	0.9048	✓	0.43
2026-06-09	oos	0.002752	0.002617	-4.90%	0.001093	-60.28%	0.8830	✓	0.42
2026-06-08	oos	0.0034	0.003194	-6.05%	0.001003	-70.50%	1.1553	✓	0.23
2026-06-07	oos	0.002709	0.002561	-5.45%	0.001139	-57.95%	0.8104	✓	0.21
2026-06-06	oos	0.002536	0.002404	-5.19%	0.001392	-45.11%	0.5439	✓	-0.05
2026-06-05	oos	0.00276	0.002612	-5.37%	0.001462	-47.03%	0.5785	✓	-0.04
2026-06-04	oos	0.003442	0.00323	-6.15%	0.001537	-55.35%	0.7500	✓	-0.64
2026-06-03	oos	0.003874	0.003615	-6.68%	0.001855	-52.12%	0.6825	✓	-0.64
2026-06-02	oos	0.003912	0.003633	-7.12%	0.001555	-60.25%	0.9028	✓	-0.67
2026-06-01	oos	0.004258	0.003918	-7.98%	0.001815	-57.37%	1.0490	✓	-1.61
2026-05-31	oos	0.00464	0.004242	-8.59%	0.001818	-60.82%	1.3348	✓	-2.13
2026-05-30	oos	0.005079	0.004613	-9.18%	0.002226	-56.17%	1.1659	✓	-2.14
2026-05-29	oos	0.005568	0.005013	-9.97%	0.002274	-59.16%	1.2263	✓	-2.08
2026-05-28	oos	0.005328	0.0048	-9.91%	0.002491	-53.25%	1.0792	✓	-2.07
2026-05-27	oos	0.006092	0.005406	-11.26%	0.002527	-58.52%	1.2483	✓	-2.28
2026-05-26	oos	0.00445	0.004037	-9.29%	0.002311	-48.07%	0.8827	✓	-1.36
2026-05-25	oos	0.00509	0.004591	-9.81%	0.002585	-49.21%	1.0013	✓	-1.81
2026-05-24	oos	0.004153	0.003767	-9.28%	0.002713	-34.67%	0.1223	✓	1.00
2026-05-23	oos	0.00441	0.003997	-9.36%	0.003108	-29.52%	0.0705	✓	1.00
2026-05-22	oos	0.004059	0.003684	-9.23%	0.003271	-19.41%	0.0575	✓	1.00
2026-05-21	oos	0.003775	0.003425	-9.27%	0.003663	-2.97%	0.2557	✗	1.00
2026-05-20	oos	0.003886	0.00353	-9.17%	0.003814	-1.85%	0.2768	✗	1.00
2026-05-19	oos	0.004278	0.003892	-9.02%	0.004509	+5.40%	0.3467	✗	1.00
2026-05-18	oos	0.005165	0.004695	-9.10%	0.003947	-23.58%	0.0037	✓	1.00
2026-05-17	oos	0.005415	0.004913	-9.27%	0.003759	-30.58%	0.1025	✓	1.00
2026-05-16	oos	0.00561	0.005084	-9.38%	0.003974	-29.16%	0.0820	✓	1.00
2026-05-15	oos	0.005628	0.005103	-9.32%	0.003552	-36.89%	0.1774	✓	1.00
2026-05-14	oos	0.006103	0.005538	-9.26%	0.003566	-41.57%	0.2103	✓	1.00
2026-05-13	oos	0.005994	0.005413	-9.70%	0.003336	-44.34%	0.2625	✓	1.00
2026-05-12	oos	0.006296	0.005686	-9.69%	0.004303	-31.66%	0.0427	✓	1.00
2026-05-11	oos	0.005912	0.005391	-8.81%	0.002921	-50.59%	0.3276	✓	1.00
2026-05-10	oos	0.005016	0.004594	-8.42%	0.002752	-45.15%	0.2254	✓	1.00
2026-05-09	oos	0.006054	0.005503	-9.10%	0.0034	-43.84%	0.2354	✓	1.00
2026-05-08	oos	0.006363	0.005759	-9.49%	0.002709	-57.43%	0.5177	✓	1.00
2026-05-07	oos	0.008334	0.007327	-12.08%	0.002536	-69.57%	0.7874	✓	1.00
2026-05-06	oos	0.006596	0.006021	-8.71%	0.00276	-58.16%	0.4916	✓	1.00
2026-05-05	oos	0.004356	0.004013	-7.89%	0.003442	-20.98%	0.0841	✗	1.00
2026-05-04	oos	0.004281	0.003931	-8.19%	0.003874	-9.51%	0.2062	✗	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.