MICRODUCK

microduck · Robinhood · gru_s0

token id: #784
symbol: MICRODUCK
variant: –
chain: Robinhood
address: 0xd5f1afea47b1a9eab414d2ee740cf1d6d039e725
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-29
predictions: 135

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +1d

assessed

of 45 predictions shown

direction hit

56.8%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1522

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0137

actual -0.0513

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.001936	0.001892	-2.29%	–	pending	–	–	0.82
2026-10-20	oos	0.0018	0.00176	-2.18%	0.001936	+7.59%	0.0976	✗	0.84
2026-10-19	oos	0.001942	0.001898	-2.26%	0.0018	-7.34%	0.0650	✓	0.88
2026-10-18	oos	0.001786	0.001752	-1.88%	0.001942	+8.73%	0.1046	✗	0.90
2026-10-17	oos	0.002094	0.002051	-2.04%	0.001786	-14.71%	0.1458	✓	0.95
2026-10-16	oos	0.002361	0.002308	-2.25%	0.002094	-11.33%	0.0961	✓	0.94
2026-10-15	oos	0.002423	0.002363	-2.47%	0.002361	-2.54%	0.0065	✓	0.95
2026-10-14	oos	0.002253	0.002206	-2.07%	0.002423	+7.55%	0.0874	✗	0.91
2026-10-13	oos	0.002043	0.002013	-1.48%	0.002253	+10.28%	0.1333	✗	1.10
2026-10-12	oos	0.002155	0.002123	-1.46%	0.002043	-5.18%	0.0570	✓	1.12
2026-10-11	oos	0.001829	0.001817	-0.71%	0.002155	+17.76%	0.2056	✗	1.50
2026-10-10	oos	0.001829	0.001821	-0.41%	0.001829	+0.03%	0.0092	✓	1.47
2026-10-09	oos	0.001849	0.001845	-0.20%	0.001829	-1.05%	0.0151	✓	1.47
2026-10-08	oos	0.002105	0.0021	-0.22%	0.001849	-12.19%	0.1435	✓	1.52
2026-10-07	oos	0.002412	0.002395	-0.71%	0.002105	-12.73%	0.1012	✓	1.45
2026-10-06	oos	0.00238	0.002358	-0.93%	0.002412	+1.34%	0.0673	✗	1.66
2026-10-05	oos	0.002877	0.002819	-2.00%	0.00238	-17.27%	0.1655	✓	1.62
2026-10-04	oos	0.002327	0.002292	-1.48%	0.002877	+23.66%	0.2435	✗	1.84
2026-10-03	oos	0.001718	0.001694	-1.40%	0.002327	+35.42%	0.2881	✗	1.42
2026-10-02	oos	0.001685	0.001632	-3.10%	0.001718	+1.99%	0.0472	✗	1.41
2026-10-01	oos	0.001688	0.001592	-5.71%	0.001685	-0.21%	0.0626	✗	1.45
2026-09-30	oos	0.00239	0.00239	-0.01%	0.001688	-29.37%	0.3742	✓	1.73
2026-09-29	oos	0.003095	0.003099	+0.16%	0.00239	-22.77%	0.2583	✗	1.69
2026-09-28	oos	0.003635	0.00363	-0.15%	0.003095	-14.88%	0.1633	✓	1.69
2026-09-27	oos	0.00367	0.003658	-0.34%	0.003635	-0.94%	0.0059	✗	1.00
2026-09-26	oos	0.004564	0.004517	-1.02%	0.00367	-19.59%	0.2083	✓	1.00
2026-09-25	oos	0.004941	0.004873	-1.39%	0.004564	-7.64%	0.0693	✓	1.00
2026-09-24	oos	0.004495	0.004451	-0.99%	0.004941	+9.93%	0.1081	✗	1.00
2026-09-23	oos	0.004587	0.004538	-1.07%	0.004495	-2.01%	0.0095	✓	1.00
2026-09-22	oos	0.004842	0.004767	-1.56%	0.004587	-5.27%	0.0171	✓	1.00
2026-09-21	oos	0.005348	0.00523	-2.21%	0.004842	-9.46%	0.0725	✓	1.00
2026-09-20	oos	0.004465	0.00443	-0.79%	0.005348	+19.78%	0.1236	✗	1.00
2026-09-19	oos	0.004269	0.004222	-1.09%	0.004465	+4.59%	0.0568	✗	1.00
2026-09-18	oos	0.005603	0.005557	-0.82%	0.004269	-23.81%	0.2681	✓	1.00
2026-09-17	oos	0.005509	0.005507	-0.04%	0.005603	+1.71%	0.0402	✓	1.00
2026-09-16	oos	0.004344	0.004279	-1.50%	0.005509	+26.82%	0.2500	✗	1.00
2026-09-15	oos	0.005922	0.005931	+0.15%	0.004344	-26.65%	0.3188	✗	1.00
2026-09-14	oos	0.008547	0.008505	-0.49%	0.005922	-30.71%	0.3283	✓	1.00
2026-09-13	oos	0.006287	0.006213	-1.17%	0.008547	+35.96%	0.3012	✗	1.00
2026-09-12	oos	0.008404	0.008331	-0.86%	0.006287	-25.20%	0.2756	✓	1.00
2026-09-11	oos	0.006361	0.006027	-5.26%	0.008404	+32.11%	0.3318	✗	1.00
2026-09-10	oos	0.008453	0.008238	-2.54%	0.006361	-24.74%	0.2673	✓	1.00
2026-09-09	oos	0.010485	0.010332	-1.46%	0.008453	-19.38%	0.1781	✓	1.00
2026-09-08	oos	0.017855	0.017839	-0.09%	0.010485	-41.28%	0.5294	✓	1.00
2026-09-07	oos	0.018005	0.018002	-0.02%	0.017855	-0.83%	0.0000	✓	1.00