ASTEROID1

? · · gru_s0

token id: #794
symbol: ASTEROID1
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-04-25
predictions: 513

Track record at +7d

assessed

164

of 171 predictions shown

direction hit

67.1%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.2445

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0164

actual -0.0929

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.001374	0.001353	-1.52%	–	pending	–	–	1.58
2026-10-20	oos	0.001259	0.001242	-1.34%	–	pending	–	–	1.54
2026-10-19	oos	0.001263	0.001244	-1.48%	–	pending	–	–	1.57
2026-10-18	oos	0.001148	0.001134	-1.28%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-17	oos	0.001229	0.001211	-1.50%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-16	oos	0.001277	0.001256	-1.63%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-15	oos	0.001258	0.001238	-1.62%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-14	oos	0.001084	0.001073	-0.94%	0.001374	+26.81%	0.2239	✗	1.68
2026-10-13	oos	0.001144	0.001133	-0.99%	0.001259	+10.01%	0.1086	✗	1.65
2026-10-12	oos	0.001126	0.001117	-0.86%	0.001263	+12.12%	0.1211	✗	1.67
2026-10-11	oos	0.001367	0.001351	-1.13%	0.001148	-15.95%	0.1301	✓	1.60
2026-10-10	oos	0.001357	0.00134	-1.28%	0.001229	-9.40%	0.0546	✓	1.67
2026-10-09	oos	0.00123	0.001217	-1.04%	0.001277	+3.78%	0.0689	✗	1.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.001355	0.001337	-1.28%	0.001258	-7.12%	0.0698	✓	1.67
2026-10-07	oos	0.001445	0.001429	-1.11%	0.001084	-25.04%	0.2428	✓	1.65
2026-10-06	oos	0.001564	0.001554	-0.61%	0.001144	-26.85%	0.2590	✓	1.65
2026-10-05	oos	0.001631	0.001624	-0.48%	0.001126	-30.95%	0.2844	✓	1.70
2026-10-04	oos	0.001638	0.001633	-0.29%	0.001367	-16.55%	0.1191	✓	1.77
2026-10-03	oos	0.001698	0.001688	-0.60%	0.001357	-20.08%	0.1788	✓	1.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.001759	0.001745	-0.78%	0.00123	-30.07%	0.3079	✓	1.79
2026-10-01	oos	0.001888	0.001875	-0.71%	0.001355	-28.26%	0.2587	✓	1.75
2026-09-30	oos	0.001874	0.001857	-0.92%	0.001445	-22.87%	0.2443	✓	1.81
2026-09-29	oos	0.001798	0.001783	-0.82%	0.001564	-13.01%	0.1694	✓	1.70
2026-09-28	oos	0.001702	0.00169	-0.73%	0.001631	-4.14%	0.0806	✓	1.68
2026-09-27	oos	0.001905	0.001895	-0.54%	0.001638	-14.04%	0.1883	✓	1.77
2026-09-26	oos	0.001983	0.001972	-0.54%	0.001698	-14.37%	0.1565	✓	1.76
2026-09-25	oos	0.002018	0.002007	-0.53%	0.001759	-12.83%	0.1407	✓	1.78
2026-09-24	oos	0.002258	0.002238	-0.89%	0.001888	-16.39%	0.1797	✓	1.76
2026-09-23	oos	0.001934	0.001927	-0.36%	0.001874	-3.10%	0.0105	✓	1.78
2026-09-22	oos	0.002158	0.002148	-0.48%	0.001798	-16.70%	0.1241	✓	1.79
2026-09-21	oos	0.001744	0.001744	+0.00%	0.001702	-2.41%	0.0430	✓	1.83
2026-09-20	oos	0.0015	0.0015	-0.02%	0.001905	+27.00%	0.1671	✗	1.81
2026-09-19	oos	0.001787	0.001784	-0.16%	0.001983	+10.97%	0.0374	✗	1.78
2026-09-18	oos	0.001831	0.001829	-0.13%	0.002018	+10.21%	0.0277	✗	1.82
2026-09-17	oos	0.001605	0.001617	+0.72%	0.002258	+40.69%	0.1607	✓	1.73
2026-09-16	oos	0.001692	0.001703	+0.67%	0.001934	+14.30%	0.0471	✗	1.70
2026-09-15	oos	0.001676	0.001692	+0.97%	0.002158	+28.79%	0.0405	✓	1.54
2026-09-14	oos	0.001803	0.001812	+0.54%	0.001744	-3.25%	0.1897	✗	1.48
2026-09-13	oos	0.001903	0.001909	+0.32%	0.0015	-21.18%	0.3254	✗	1.52
2026-09-12	oos	0.001828	0.001836	+0.44%	0.001787	-2.24%	0.1054	✗	1.56
2026-09-11	oos	0.001956	0.001958	+0.12%	0.001831	-6.39%	0.1390	✗	1.55
2026-09-10	oos	0.002041	0.002038	-0.14%	0.001605	-21.34%	0.2348	✓	1.58
2026-09-09	oos	0.002186	0.00218	-0.29%	0.001692	-22.60%	0.2095	✓	1.58
2026-09-08	oos	0.00224	0.002232	-0.33%	0.001676	-25.16%	0.2158	✓	1.90
2026-09-07	oos	0.002308	0.002301	-0.30%	0.001803	-21.90%	0.2222	✓	1.88
2026-09-06	oos	0.002546	0.002535	-0.42%	0.001903	-25.26%	0.1980	✓	1.97
2026-09-05	oos	0.002485	0.002475	-0.36%	0.001828	-26.42%	0.2403	✓	1.92
2026-09-04	oos	0.003024	0.002998	-0.88%	0.001956	-35.33%	0.3668	✓	1.91
2026-09-03	oos	0.003109	0.00308	-0.95%	0.002041	-34.38%	0.2957	✓	1.94
2026-09-02	oos	0.002326	0.002314	-0.51%	0.002186	-6.02%	0.0800	✓	1.84
2026-09-01	oos	0.002382	0.002372	-0.44%	0.00224	-5.98%	0.0822	✓	1.85
2026-08-31	oos	0.002634	0.002623	-0.42%	0.002308	-12.38%	0.1395	✓	1.74
2026-08-30	oos	0.002947	0.00292	-0.93%	0.002546	-13.61%	0.1944	✓	1.70
2026-08-29	oos	0.002557	0.002546	-0.45%	0.002485	-2.84%	0.0597	✓	1.75
2026-08-28	oos	0.002101	0.002103	+0.08%	0.003024	+43.96%	0.3230	✓	1.74
2026-08-27	oos	0.002319	0.002324	+0.21%	0.003109	+34.09%	0.2704	✓	1.70
2026-08-26	oos	0.002166	0.002171	+0.23%	0.002326	+7.39%	0.1059	✓	1.68
2026-08-25	oos	0.001937	0.001945	+0.42%	0.002382	+22.97%	0.2270	✓	1.69
2026-08-24	oos	0.00227	0.002274	+0.19%	0.002634	+16.04%	0.1547	✓	1.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.00236	0.002359	-0.04%	0.002947	+24.87%	0.2238	✗	1.55
2026-08-22	oos	0.00264	0.002628	-0.46%	0.002557	-3.14%	0.0515	✓	1.59
2026-08-21	oos	0.002582	0.002576	-0.22%	0.002101	-18.63%	0.1940	✓	1.61
2026-08-20	oos	0.003052	0.002987	-2.12%	0.002319	-24.02%	0.4603	✓	2.18
2026-08-19	oos	0.002289	0.002244	-1.96%	0.002166	-5.37%	0.2714	✓	1.80
2026-08-18	oos	0.00195	0.001899	-2.62%	0.001937	-0.67%	0.3089	✓	1.69
2026-08-17	oos	0.001986	0.001931	-2.76%	0.00227	+14.30%	0.1745	✓	1.66
2026-08-16	oos	0.001873	0.001821	-2.75%	0.00236	+26.00%	0.0889	✓	1.64
2026-08-15	oos	0.001955	0.001901	-2.77%	0.00264	+35.04%	0.0011	✓	1.64
2026-08-14	oos	0.002087	0.002026	-2.94%	0.002582	+23.72%	0.1169	✓	1.65
2026-08-13	oos	0.00194	0.001887	-2.75%	0.003052	+57.32%	0.2479	✗	1.66
2026-08-12	oos	0.002211	0.002139	-3.25%	0.002289	+3.53%	0.0827	✓	1.69
2026-08-11	oos	0.002031	0.001965	-3.23%	0.00195	-3.99%	0.0379	✓	1.68
2026-08-10	oos	0.001751	0.0017	-2.93%	0.001986	+13.42%	0.1407	✗	1.71
2026-08-09	oos	0.001717	0.001666	-2.99%	0.001873	+9.09%	0.1705	✗	1.69
2026-08-08	oos	0.001589	0.001539	-3.12%	0.001955	+23.03%	0.2881	✗	1.66
2026-08-07	oos	0.001601	0.001552	-3.07%	0.002087	+30.36%	0.3416	✗	1.51
2026-08-06	oos	0.002119	0.002041	-3.68%	0.00194	-8.45%	0.0295	✓	1.61
2026-08-05	oos	0.001998	0.001924	-3.70%	0.002211	+10.66%	0.1684	✗	1.58
2026-08-04	oos	0.002382	0.002234	-6.21%	0.002031	-14.74%	0.0830	✓	1.51
2026-08-03	oos	0.001356	0.001307	-3.63%	0.001751	+29.13%	0.2828	✗	1.41
2026-08-02	oos	0.001354	0.001305	-3.60%	0.001717	+26.81%	0.2445	✗	1.41
2026-08-01	oos	0.001573	0.001521	-3.29%	0.001589	+1.02%	0.0085	✓	1.55
2026-07-31	oos	0.001676	0.00162	-3.34%	0.001601	-4.47%	0.0619	✓	1.55
2026-07-30	oos	0.001696	0.001643	-3.14%	0.002119	+24.94%	0.2650	✗	1.48
2026-07-29	oos	0.001747	0.00169	-3.25%	0.001998	+14.37%	0.1508	✗	1.50
2026-07-28	oos	0.001803	0.001745	-3.23%	0.002382	+32.11%	0.3067	✗	1.45
2026-07-27	oos	0.002076	0.001995	-3.92%	0.001356	-34.68%	0.3808	✓	1.44
2026-07-26	oos	0.002034	0.001963	-3.47%	0.001354	-33.43%	0.3291	✓	1.49
2026-07-25	oos	0.002304	0.0022	-4.52%	0.001573	-31.73%	0.2973	✓	1.58
2026-07-24	oos	0.002315	0.00218	-5.84%	0.001676	-27.60%	0.2352	✓	1.40
2026-07-23	oos	0.001482	0.001442	-2.73%	0.001696	+14.44%	0.1707	✗	1.61
2026-07-22	oos	0.00136	0.001329	-2.29%	0.001747	+28.46%	0.3298	✗	1.67
2026-07-21	oos	0.001551	0.001503	-3.07%	0.001803	+16.25%	0.2494	✗	1.65
2026-07-20	oos	0.001198	0.001173	-2.06%	0.002076	+73.29%	0.6052	✗	1.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.001223	0.001198	-2.01%	0.002034	+66.31%	0.5140	✗	1.47
2026-07-18	oos	0.001349	0.001319	-2.21%	0.002304	+70.79%	0.5691	✗	1.47
2026-07-17	oos	0.001424	0.001384	-2.80%	0.002315	+62.57%	0.5099	✗	1.51
2026-07-16	oos	0.001041	0.001025	-1.52%	0.001482	+42.36%	0.3396	✗	1.46
2026-07-15	oos	0.001046	0.00103	-1.53%	0.00136	+30.02%	0.2471	✗	1.47
2026-07-14	oos	0.001158	0.001138	-1.70%	0.001551	+33.94%	0.2752	✗	1.47
2026-07-13	oos	0.001046	0.001036	-0.97%	0.001198	+14.53%	0.0824	✗	1.36
2026-07-12	oos	0.001205	0.001188	-1.45%	0.001223	+1.49%	0.0105	✓	1.29
2026-07-11	oos	0.001323	0.0013	-1.77%	0.001349	+1.97%	0.0167	✓	1.30
2026-07-10	oos	0.001144	0.001127	-1.47%	0.001424	+24.48%	0.2386	✗	1.32
2026-07-09	oos	0.001093	0.00108	-1.23%	0.001041	-4.76%	0.0484	✓	1.28
2026-07-08	oos	0.001003	0.00099134	-1.16%	0.001046	+4.29%	0.0060	✓	1.22
2026-07-07	oos	0.001139	0.001124	-1.33%	0.001158	+1.67%	0.0005	✓	1.17
2026-07-06	oos	0.001392	0.001376	-1.15%	0.001046	-24.86%	0.2434	✓	1.12
2026-07-05	oos	0.001462	0.001445	-1.20%	0.001205	-17.58%	0.1841	✓	1.13
2026-07-04	oos	0.001537	0.001518	-1.21%	0.001323	-13.92%	0.1502	✓	1.15
2026-07-03	oos	0.001855	0.00183	-1.34%	0.001144	-38.33%	0.5012	✓	1.24
2026-07-02	oos	0.001555	0.00154	-0.98%	0.001093	-29.71%	0.3724	✓	1.09
2026-07-01	oos	0.001815	0.001799	-0.86%	0.001003	-44.74%	0.6325	✓	1.29
2026-06-30	oos	0.001818	0.001807	-0.62%	0.001139	-37.35%	0.5645	✓	1.31
2026-06-29	oos	0.002226	0.002202	-1.06%	0.001392	-37.47%	0.5299	✓	1.15
2026-06-28	oos	0.002274	0.002249	-1.08%	0.001462	-35.71%	0.5084	✓	1.16
2026-06-27	oos	0.002491	0.002459	-1.28%	0.001537	-38.30%	0.5290	✓	1.15
2026-06-26	oos	0.002527	0.002493	-1.36%	0.001855	-26.59%	0.3428	✓	1.15
2026-06-25	oos	0.002311	0.00228	-1.33%	0.001555	-32.71%	0.4153	✓	1.11
2026-06-24	oos	0.002585	0.002547	-1.46%	0.001815	-29.79%	0.3212	✓	1.05
2026-06-23	oos	0.002713	0.002667	-1.71%	0.001818	-32.99%	0.3119	✓	1.05
2026-06-22	oos	0.003108	0.003056	-1.66%	0.002226	-28.38%	0.2582	✓	0.96
2026-06-21	oos	0.003271	0.003221	-1.53%	0.002274	-30.48%	0.2869	✓	1.00
2026-06-20	oos	0.003663	0.003604	-1.61%	0.002491	-32.00%	0.3039	✓	0.95
2026-06-19	oos	0.003814	0.003752	-1.63%	0.002527	-33.74%	0.3402	✓	0.98
2026-06-18	oos	0.004509	0.004406	-2.28%	0.002311	-48.75%	0.5889	✓	1.09
2026-06-17	oos	0.003947	0.003874	-1.85%	0.002585	-34.51%	0.3343	✓	1.27
2026-06-16	oos	0.003759	0.00369	-1.83%	0.002713	-27.83%	0.2457	✓	1.34
2026-06-15	oos	0.003974	0.003888	-2.17%	0.003108	-21.79%	0.1765	✓	1.33
2026-06-14	oos	0.003552	0.003484	-1.92%	0.003271	-7.91%	0.0149	✓	1.25
2026-06-13	oos	0.003566	0.003497	-1.93%	0.003663	+2.72%	0.0504	✗	1.27
2026-06-12	oos	0.003336	0.003274	-1.86%	0.003814	+14.33%	0.1539	✗	1.21
2026-06-11	oos	0.004303	0.004157	-3.40%	0.004509	+4.79%	0.0950	✗	1.26
2026-06-10	oos	0.002921	0.002886	-1.21%	0.003947	+35.12%	0.2929	✗	0.43
2026-06-09	oos	0.002752	0.002725	-0.98%	0.003759	+36.62%	0.2959	✗	0.42
2026-06-08	oos	0.0034	0.003336	-1.89%	0.003974	+16.88%	0.1637	✗	0.23
2026-06-07	oos	0.002709	0.002678	-1.16%	0.003552	+31.12%	0.2746	✗	0.21
2026-06-06	oos	0.002536	0.002539	+0.10%	0.003566	+40.62%	0.3428	✓	-0.05
2026-06-05	oos	0.00276	0.002752	-0.28%	0.003336	+20.87%	0.1940	✗	-0.04
2026-06-04	oos	0.003442	0.003393	-1.42%	0.004303	+25.01%	0.2351	✗	-0.64
2026-06-03	oos	0.003874	0.003814	-1.54%	0.002921	-24.60%	0.2931	✓	-0.64
2026-06-02	oos	0.003912	0.003832	-2.04%	0.002752	-29.67%	0.3832	✓	-0.67
2026-06-01	oos	0.004258	0.004123	-3.16%	0.0034	-20.15%	0.3911	✓	-1.61
2026-05-31	oos	0.00464	0.004473	-3.60%	0.002709	-41.62%	0.8218	✓	-2.13
2026-05-30	oos	0.005079	0.004894	-3.64%	0.002536	-50.07%	1.0703	✓	-2.14
2026-05-29	oos	0.005568	0.005355	-3.83%	0.00276	-50.43%	1.0449	✓	-2.08
2026-05-28	oos	0.005328	0.005124	-3.83%	0.003442	-35.40%	0.6914	✓	-2.07
2026-05-27	oos	0.006092	0.005797	-4.83%	0.003874	-36.41%	0.7425	✓	-2.28
2026-05-26	oos	0.00445	0.004303	-3.31%	0.003912	-12.09%	0.2704	✓	-1.36
2026-05-25	oos	0.00509	0.004906	-3.61%	0.004258	-16.35%	0.2861	✓	-1.81
2026-05-24	oos	0.004153	0.004042	-2.68%	0.00464	+11.73%	0.1833	✗	1.00
2026-05-23	oos	0.00441	0.004289	-2.74%	0.005079	+15.17%	0.2073	✗	1.00
2026-05-22	oos	0.004059	0.003978	-1.99%	0.005568	+37.18%	0.3641	✗	1.00
2026-05-21	oos	0.003775	0.003695	-2.11%	0.005328	+41.14%	0.4193	✗	1.00
2026-05-20	oos	0.003886	0.003801	-2.20%	0.006092	+56.77%	0.5135	✗	1.00
2026-05-19	oos	0.004278	0.004185	-2.17%	0.00445	+4.02%	0.0737	✗	1.00
2026-05-18	oos	0.005165	0.005056	-2.12%	0.00509	-1.45%	0.0028	✓	1.00
2026-05-17	oos	0.005415	0.005304	-2.04%	0.004153	-23.31%	0.2391	✓	1.00
2026-05-16	oos	0.00561	0.005502	-1.92%	0.00441	-21.39%	0.2025	✓	1.00
2026-05-15	oos	0.005628	0.005533	-1.68%	0.004059	-27.88%	0.2631	✓	1.00
2026-05-14	oos	0.006103	0.006015	-1.44%	0.003775	-38.15%	0.4214	✓	1.00
2026-05-13	oos	0.005994	0.005891	-1.71%	0.003886	-35.17%	0.3930	✓	1.00
2026-05-12	oos	0.006296	0.006193	-1.64%	0.004278	-32.05%	0.3226	✓	1.00
2026-05-11	oos	0.005912	0.005838	-1.26%	0.005165	-12.64%	0.0621	✓	1.00
2026-05-10	oos	0.005016	0.004977	-0.77%	0.005415	+7.95%	0.1443	✗	1.00
2026-05-09	oos	0.006054	0.005979	-1.24%	0.00561	-7.33%	0.0316	✓	1.00
2026-05-08	oos	0.006363	0.006274	-1.39%	0.005628	-11.55%	0.0945	✓	1.00
2026-05-07	oos	0.008334	0.008058	-3.32%	0.006103	-26.77%	0.2912	✓	1.00
2026-05-06	oos	0.006596	0.006459	-2.08%	0.005994	-9.13%	0.0479	✓	1.00
2026-05-05	oos	0.004356	0.004323	-0.76%	0.006296	+44.54%	0.3813	✗	1.00
2026-05-04	oos	0.004281	0.004241	-0.93%	0.005912	+38.10%	0.3089	✗	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.