ASTEROID1

? · · gru_s0

token id: #794
symbol: ASTEROID1
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-04-25
predictions: 516

Track record at +30d

assessed

142

of 172 predictions shown

direction hit

76.8%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.4802

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0653

actual -0.3442

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.001541	0.001494	-3.03%	–	pending	–	–	1.90
2026-10-21	oos	0.001549	0.001512	-2.40%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-20	oos	0.001259	0.001218	-3.18%	–	pending	–	–	1.54
2026-10-19	oos	0.001263	0.001215	-3.83%	–	pending	–	–	1.57
2026-10-18	oos	0.001148	0.001095	-4.62%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-17	oos	0.001229	0.001167	-5.05%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-16	oos	0.001277	0.001209	-5.26%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-15	oos	0.001258	0.001191	-5.35%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-14	oos	0.001084	0.001011	-6.65%	–	pending	–	–	1.68
2026-10-13	oos	0.001144	0.001076	-5.91%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-12	oos	0.001126	0.001047	-7.09%	–	pending	–	–	1.67
2026-10-11	oos	0.001367	0.001315	-3.75%	–	pending	–	–	1.60
2026-10-10	oos	0.001357	0.001291	-4.89%	–	pending	–	–	1.67
2026-10-09	oos	0.00123	0.001144	-7.02%	–	pending	–	–	1.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.001355	0.00127	-6.24%	–	pending	–	–	1.67
2026-10-07	oos	0.001445	0.001381	-4.44%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-06	oos	0.001564	0.001532	-2.02%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-05	oos	0.001631	0.001605	-1.60%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-04	oos	0.001638	0.00162	-1.05%	–	pending	–	–	1.77
2026-10-03	oos	0.001698	0.00166	-2.23%	–	pending	–	–	1.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.001759	0.001711	-2.72%	–	pending	–	–	1.79
2026-10-01	oos	0.001888	0.00184	-2.57%	–	pending	–	–	1.75
2026-09-30	oos	0.001874	0.001815	-3.17%	–	pending	–	–	1.81
2026-09-29	oos	0.001798	0.001742	-3.14%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-09-28	oos	0.001702	0.001651	-3.02%	–	pending	–	–	1.68
2026-09-27	oos	0.001905	0.001858	-2.47%	–	pending	–	–	1.77
2026-09-26	oos	0.001983	0.001932	-2.55%	–	pending	–	–	1.76
2026-09-25	oos	0.002018	0.00197	-2.37%	–	pending	–	–	1.78
2026-09-24	oos	0.002258	0.002196	-2.73%	–	pending	–	–	1.76
2026-09-23	oos	0.001934	0.001903	-1.60%	–	pending	–	–	1.78
2026-09-22	oos	0.002158	0.002131	-1.25%	0.001541	-28.61%	0.2829	✓	1.79
2026-09-21	oos	0.001744	0.001739	-0.32%	0.001549	-11.18%	0.0604	✓	1.83
2026-09-20	oos	0.0015	0.00146	-2.66%	0.001259	-16.10%	0.1878	✓	1.81
2026-09-19	oos	0.001787	0.001756	-1.72%	0.001263	-29.32%	0.3428	✓	1.78
2026-09-18	oos	0.001831	0.001801	-1.63%	0.001148	-37.27%	0.4752	✓	1.82
2026-09-17	oos	0.001605	0.001563	-2.60%	0.001229	-23.40%	0.3508	✓	1.73
2026-09-16	oos	0.001692	0.001644	-2.86%	0.001277	-24.56%	0.3680	✓	1.70
2026-09-15	oos	0.001676	0.001622	-3.20%	0.001258	-24.94%	0.3825	✓	1.54
2026-09-14	oos	0.001803	0.001757	-2.52%	0.001084	-39.89%	0.5463	✓	1.48
2026-09-13	oos	0.001903	0.001838	-3.40%	0.001144	-39.88%	0.5946	✓	1.52
2026-09-12	oos	0.001828	0.001757	-3.89%	0.001126	-38.38%	0.5325	✓	1.56
2026-09-11	oos	0.001956	0.00187	-4.40%	0.001367	-30.14%	0.4382	✓	1.55
2026-09-10	oos	0.002041	0.001932	-5.30%	0.001357	-33.50%	0.4795	✓	1.58
2026-09-09	oos	0.002186	0.002075	-5.10%	0.00123	-43.73%	0.6064	✓	1.58
2026-09-08	oos	0.00224	0.002127	-5.03%	0.001355	-39.52%	0.5283	✓	1.90
2026-09-07	oos	0.002308	0.002203	-4.53%	0.001445	-37.37%	0.5187	✓	1.88
2026-09-06	oos	0.002546	0.002435	-4.34%	0.001564	-38.57%	0.5666	✓	1.97
2026-09-05	oos	0.002485	0.002378	-4.30%	0.001631	-34.33%	0.5142	✓	1.92
2026-09-04	oos	0.003024	0.002875	-4.96%	0.001638	-45.86%	0.7202	✓	1.91
2026-09-03	oos	0.003109	0.002986	-3.98%	0.001698	-45.39%	0.6456	✓	1.94
2026-09-02	oos	0.002326	0.002211	-4.92%	0.001759	-24.38%	0.3923	✓	1.84
2026-09-01	oos	0.002382	0.002281	-4.25%	0.001888	-20.74%	0.3592	✓	1.85
2026-08-31	oos	0.002634	0.002548	-3.26%	0.001874	-28.85%	0.4142	✓	1.74
2026-08-30	oos	0.002947	0.002833	-3.87%	0.001798	-38.99%	0.5805	✓	1.70
2026-08-29	oos	0.002557	0.002493	-2.49%	0.001702	-33.44%	0.4950	✓	1.75
2026-08-28	oos	0.002101	0.002067	-1.62%	0.001905	-9.33%	0.2234	✓	1.74
2026-08-27	oos	0.002319	0.002307	-0.52%	0.001983	-14.49%	0.2368	✓	1.70
2026-08-26	oos	0.002166	0.002149	-0.78%	0.002018	-6.83%	0.1671	✓	1.68
2026-08-25	oos	0.001937	0.001928	-0.48%	0.002258	+16.57%	0.0366	✗	1.69
2026-08-24	oos	0.00227	0.002245	-1.09%	0.001934	-14.80%	0.2474	✓	1.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.00236	0.002319	-1.72%	0.002158	-8.54%	0.2323	✓	1.55
2026-08-22	oos	0.00264	0.002572	-2.57%	0.001744	-33.94%	0.5747	✓	1.59
2026-08-21	oos	0.002582	0.002536	-1.78%	0.0015	-41.91%	0.5824	✓	1.61
2026-08-20	oos	0.003052	0.002879	-5.66%	0.001787	-41.45%	0.7100	✓	2.18
2026-08-19	oos	0.002289	0.002158	-5.72%	0.001831	-20.01%	0.4418	✓	1.80
2026-08-18	oos	0.00195	0.001781	-8.69%	0.001605	-17.69%	0.3849	✓	1.69
2026-08-17	oos	0.001986	0.001807	-9.01%	0.001692	-14.80%	0.3414	✓	1.66
2026-08-16	oos	0.001873	0.001678	-10.43%	0.001676	-10.52%	0.3031	✓	1.64
2026-08-15	oos	0.001955	0.001754	-10.26%	0.001803	-7.80%	0.3262	✓	1.64
2026-08-14	oos	0.002087	0.001877	-10.07%	0.001903	-8.82%	0.3133	✓	1.65
2026-08-13	oos	0.00194	0.001737	-10.47%	0.001828	-5.77%	0.2756	✓	1.66
2026-08-12	oos	0.002211	0.001984	-10.28%	0.001956	-11.53%	0.3474	✓	1.69
2026-08-11	oos	0.002031	0.001815	-10.62%	0.002041	+0.47%	0.1960	✓	1.68
2026-08-10	oos	0.001751	0.001551	-11.40%	0.002186	+24.84%	0.0032	✓	1.71
2026-08-09	oos	0.001717	0.001518	-11.58%	0.00224	+30.43%	0.0679	✓	1.69
2026-08-08	oos	0.001589	0.001388	-12.65%	0.002308	+45.25%	0.1803	✗	1.66
2026-08-07	oos	0.001601	0.001406	-12.20%	0.002546	+59.03%	0.2717	✗	1.51
2026-08-06	oos	0.002119	0.001889	-10.84%	0.002485	+17.25%	0.0757	✓	1.61
2026-08-05	oos	0.001998	0.001777	-11.05%	0.003024	+51.38%	0.2010	✗	1.58
2026-08-04	oos	0.002382	0.002079	-12.72%	0.003109	+30.54%	0.0442	✓	1.51
2026-08-03	oos	0.001356	0.001155	-14.81%	0.002326	+71.53%	0.4215	✗	1.41
2026-08-02	oos	0.001354	0.00116	-14.36%	0.002382	+75.92%	0.4399	✗	1.41
2026-08-01	oos	0.001573	0.001381	-12.24%	0.002634	+67.45%	0.2985	✗	1.55
2026-07-31	oos	0.001676	0.001488	-11.23%	0.002947	+75.84%	0.3551	✗	1.55
2026-07-30	oos	0.001696	0.001537	-9.39%	0.002557	+50.77%	0.2295	✗	1.48
2026-07-29	oos	0.001747	0.001585	-9.29%	0.002101	+20.26%	0.0138	✓	1.50
2026-07-28	oos	0.001803	0.001642	-8.92%	0.002319	+28.62%	0.0121	✓	1.45
2026-07-27	oos	0.002076	0.001878	-9.56%	0.002166	+4.34%	0.1670	✓	1.44
2026-07-26	oos	0.002034	0.001869	-8.11%	0.001937	-4.77%	0.2378	✓	1.49
2026-07-25	oos	0.002304	0.002066	-10.31%	0.00227	-1.48%	0.2311	✓	1.58
2026-07-24	oos	0.002315	0.002058	-11.10%	0.00236	+1.94%	0.1328	✓	1.40
2026-07-23	oos	0.001482	0.001385	-6.58%	0.00264	+78.14%	0.3731	✗	1.61
2026-07-22	oos	0.00136	0.001283	-5.64%	0.002582	+89.85%	0.4155	✗	1.67
2026-07-21	oos	0.001551	0.001468	-5.36%	0.003052	+96.78%	0.5780	✗	1.65
2026-07-20	oos	0.001198	0.001122	-6.36%	0.002289	+91.07%	0.6239	✗	1.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.001223	0.001146	-6.29%	0.00195	+59.44%	0.5315	✗	1.47
2026-07-18	oos	0.001349	0.001271	-5.81%	0.001986	+47.22%	0.4539	✗	1.47
2026-07-17	oos	0.001424	0.001336	-6.18%	0.001873	+31.53%	0.3630	✗	1.51
2026-07-16	oos	0.001041	0.000966106	-7.19%	0.001955	+87.80%	0.7221	✗	1.46
2026-07-15	oos	0.001046	0.000967529	-7.50%	0.002087	+99.52%	0.8089	✗	1.47
2026-07-14	oos	0.001158	0.001083	-6.45%	0.00194	+67.53%	0.6185	✗	1.47
2026-07-13	oos	0.001046	0.000968724	-7.39%	0.002211	+111.38%	0.8004	✗	1.36
2026-07-12	oos	0.001205	0.001128	-6.39%	0.002031	+68.55%	0.5923	✗	1.29
2026-07-11	oos	0.001323	0.001246	-5.81%	0.001751	+32.35%	0.3373	✗	1.30
2026-07-10	oos	0.001144	0.001038	-9.28%	0.001717	+50.09%	0.4887	✗	1.32
2026-07-09	oos	0.001093	0.000964909	-11.72%	0.001589	+45.38%	0.4641	✗	1.28
2026-07-08	oos	0.001003	0.000833558	-16.89%	0.001601	+59.62%	0.6018	✗	1.22
2026-07-07	oos	0.001139	0.000985665	-13.46%	0.002119	+86.04%	0.7480	✗	1.17
2026-07-06	oos	0.001392	0.001296	-6.88%	0.001998	+43.53%	0.4222	✗	1.12
2026-07-05	oos	0.001462	0.001369	-6.36%	0.002382	+62.93%	0.5455	✗	1.13
2026-07-04	oos	0.001537	0.001448	-5.78%	0.001356	-11.78%	0.0727	✓	1.15
2026-07-03	oos	0.001855	0.001807	-2.59%	0.001354	-27.01%	0.3078	✓	1.24
2026-07-02	oos	0.001555	0.001454	-6.52%	0.001573	+1.16%	0.0564	✓	1.09
2026-07-01	oos	0.001815	0.001754	-3.34%	0.001676	-7.66%	0.1059	✓	1.29
2026-06-30	oos	0.001818	0.001756	-3.43%	0.001696	-6.71%	0.1662	✓	1.31
2026-06-29	oos	0.002226	0.002191	-1.57%	0.001747	-21.52%	0.2957	✓	1.15
2026-06-28	oos	0.002274	0.002239	-1.56%	0.001803	-20.71%	0.2988	✓	1.16
2026-06-27	oos	0.002491	0.002452	-1.56%	0.002076	-16.66%	0.2365	✓	1.15
2026-06-26	oos	0.002527	0.002483	-1.76%	0.002034	-19.51%	0.2973	✓	1.15
2026-06-25	oos	0.002311	0.00226	-2.21%	0.002304	-0.30%	0.0627	✓	1.11
2026-06-24	oos	0.002585	0.002528	-2.21%	0.002315	-10.44%	0.1401	✓	1.05
2026-06-23	oos	0.002713	0.00264	-2.70%	0.001482	-45.37%	0.6167	✓	1.05
2026-06-22	oos	0.003108	0.003016	-2.95%	0.00136	-56.24%	0.8282	✓	0.96
2026-06-21	oos	0.003271	0.003175	-2.93%	0.001551	-52.58%	0.7669	✓	1.00
2026-06-20	oos	0.003663	0.003543	-3.29%	0.001198	-67.29%	1.0987	✓	0.95
2026-06-19	oos	0.003814	0.003686	-3.36%	0.001223	-67.93%	1.1216	✓	0.98
2026-06-18	oos	0.004509	0.004299	-4.66%	0.001349	-70.08%	1.1917	✓	1.09
2026-06-17	oos	0.003947	0.003793	-3.91%	0.001424	-63.92%	0.9687	✓	1.27
2026-06-16	oos	0.003759	0.00361	-3.96%	0.001041	-72.31%	1.2055	✓	1.34
2026-06-15	oos	0.003974	0.003794	-4.53%	0.001046	-73.68%	1.2568	✓	1.33
2026-06-14	oos	0.003552	0.003397	-4.36%	0.001158	-67.40%	1.0625	✓	1.25
2026-06-13	oos	0.003566	0.003406	-4.49%	0.001046	-70.67%	1.1371	✓	1.27
2026-06-12	oos	0.003336	0.003185	-4.54%	0.001205	-63.88%	0.9757	✓	1.21
2026-06-11	oos	0.004303	0.004022	-6.54%	0.001323	-69.25%	1.1159	✓	1.26
2026-06-10	oos	0.002921	0.002791	-4.44%	0.001144	-60.84%	0.9102	✓	0.43
2026-06-09	oos	0.002752	0.002616	-4.94%	0.001093	-60.28%	0.8826	✓	0.42
2026-06-08	oos	0.0034	0.003207	-5.67%	0.001003	-70.50%	1.1594	✓	0.23
2026-06-07	oos	0.002709	0.002529	-6.63%	0.001139	-57.95%	0.7979	✓	0.21
2026-06-06	oos	0.002536	0.002385	-5.95%	0.001392	-45.11%	0.5358	✓	-0.05
2026-06-05	oos	0.00276	0.002592	-6.10%	0.001462	-47.03%	0.5708	✓	-0.04
2026-06-04	oos	0.003442	0.003209	-6.78%	0.001537	-55.35%	0.7433	✓	-0.64
2026-06-03	oos	0.003874	0.003603	-7.00%	0.001855	-52.12%	0.6791	✓	-0.64
2026-06-02	oos	0.003912	0.00359	-8.23%	0.001555	-60.25%	0.8907	✓	-0.67
2026-06-01	oos	0.004258	0.003831	-10.02%	0.001815	-57.37%	1.0266	✓	-1.61
2026-05-31	oos	0.00464	0.004157	-10.42%	0.001818	-60.82%	1.3146	✓	-2.13
2026-05-30	oos	0.005079	0.004545	-10.51%	0.002226	-56.17%	1.1511	✓	-2.14
2026-05-29	oos	0.005568	0.00496	-10.92%	0.002274	-59.16%	1.2157	✓	-2.08
2026-05-28	oos	0.005328	0.004739	-11.06%	0.002491	-53.25%	1.0664	✓	-2.07
2026-05-27	oos	0.006092	0.00537	-11.85%	0.002527	-58.52%	1.2416	✓	-2.28
2026-05-26	oos	0.00445	0.003986	-10.44%	0.002311	-48.07%	0.8699	✓	-1.36
2026-05-25	oos	0.00509	0.004598	-9.66%	0.002585	-49.21%	1.0029	✓	-1.81
2026-05-24	oos	0.004153	0.00373	-10.19%	0.002713	-34.67%	0.1123	✓	1.00
2026-05-23	oos	0.00441	0.003957	-10.27%	0.003108	-29.52%	0.0604	✓	1.00
2026-05-22	oos	0.004059	0.00362	-10.81%	0.003271	-19.41%	0.0750	✓	1.00
2026-05-21	oos	0.003775	0.003327	-11.86%	0.003663	-2.97%	0.2847	✗	1.00
2026-05-20	oos	0.003886	0.003425	-11.85%	0.003814	-1.85%	0.3068	✗	1.00
2026-05-19	oos	0.004278	0.003827	-10.53%	0.004509	+5.40%	0.3635	✗	1.00
2026-05-18	oos	0.005165	0.004752	-7.99%	0.003947	-23.58%	0.0084	✓	1.00
2026-05-17	oos	0.005415	0.005021	-7.28%	0.003759	-30.58%	0.1242	✓	1.00
2026-05-16	oos	0.00561	0.00525	-6.42%	0.003974	-29.16%	0.1142	✓	1.00
2026-05-15	oos	0.005628	0.005327	-5.35%	0.003552	-36.89%	0.2203	✓	1.00
2026-05-14	oos	0.006103	0.005889	-3.50%	0.003566	-41.57%	0.2719	✓	1.00
2026-05-13	oos	0.005994	0.005716	-4.64%	0.003336	-44.34%	0.3171	✓	1.00
2026-05-12	oos	0.006296	0.006074	-3.53%	0.004303	-31.66%	0.1086	✓	1.00
2026-05-11	oos	0.005912	0.005794	-2.00%	0.002921	-50.59%	0.3996	✓	1.00
2026-05-10	oos	0.005016	0.004941	-1.49%	0.002752	-45.15%	0.2983	✓	1.00
2026-05-09	oos	0.006054	0.005904	-2.48%	0.0034	-43.84%	0.3057	✓	1.00
2026-05-08	oos	0.006363	0.006185	-2.79%	0.002709	-57.43%	0.5891	✓	1.00
2026-05-07	oos	0.008334	0.007899	-5.22%	0.002536	-69.57%	0.8625	✓	1.00
2026-05-06	oos	0.006596	0.006492	-1.58%	0.00276	-58.16%	0.5669	✓	1.00
2026-05-05	oos	0.004356	0.004289	-1.54%	0.003442	-20.98%	0.0175	✗	1.00
2026-05-04	oos	0.004281	0.004181	-2.33%	0.003874	-9.51%	0.1443	✗	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.