TOLLY
Tolly · Arc · beta_5y
- token id
- #737
- symbol
- TOLLY
- variant
- –
- chain
- Arc
- address
- 0xbc43ce8dec648ea298c4275559b81d6261c90b67
- cohort
- datapoint (mid-window listing)
- first bar
- 2026-09-16
- predictions
- 84
Track record at +7d
assessed
21
of 28 predictions shown
direction hit
85.7%
alpha space; 50% is a coin flip
MAE (alpha)
0.3876
mean absolute log-return error
mean pred / actual
-0.0393
actual -0.3895
History
| as of | split | anchor px | pred px | pred Δ | actual px | actual Δ | alpha err | hit | β90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | live | 0.0017 | 0.001568 | -7.75% | – | pending | – | – | -1.65 |
| 2026-10-21 | oos | 0.001791 | 0.00165 | -7.88% | – | pending | – | – | -1.74 |
| 2026-10-20 | oos | 0.001677 | 0.001551 | -7.53% | – | pending | – | – | -1.70 |
| 2026-10-19 | oos | 0.001597 | 0.00149 | -6.69% | – | pending | – | – | -1.80 |
| 2026-10-18 | oos | 0.001213 | 0.001193 | -1.63% | – | pending | – | – | -1.68 |
| 2026-10-17 | oos | 0.001311 | 0.001289 | -1.71% | – | pending | – | – | -1.67 |
| 2026-10-16 | oos | 0.001335 | 0.001323 | -0.93% | – | pending | – | – | -1.66 |
| 2026-10-15 | oos | 0.001447 | 0.001429 | -1.24% | 0.0017 | +17.48% | 0.1484 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-14 | oos | 0.001505 | 0.001494 | -0.75% | 0.001791 | +19.00% | 0.1677 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-13 | oos | 0.001563 | 0.001557 | -0.36% | 0.001677 | +7.29% | 0.0760 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-12 | oos | 0.001742 | 0.001727 | -0.84% | 0.001597 | -8.32% | 0.0796 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-11 | oos | 0.002234 | 0.002146 | -3.93% | 0.001213 | -45.70% | 0.5504 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-10 | oos | 0.002289 | 0.002212 | -3.40% | 0.001311 | -42.74% | 0.5043 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-09 | oos | 0.002722 | 0.002575 | -5.41% | 0.001335 | -50.96% | 0.6441 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-08 | oos | 0.002247 | 0.002215 | -1.41% | 0.001447 | -35.60% | 0.4311 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-07 | oos | 0.002574 | 0.002494 | -3.11% | 0.001505 | -41.53% | 0.4843 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-06 | oos | 0.002262 | 0.002249 | -0.59% | 0.001563 | -30.90% | 0.3348 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-05 | oos | 0.002414 | 0.002396 | -0.73% | 0.001742 | -27.84% | 0.2711 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-04 | oos | 0.003086 | 0.002969 | -3.80% | 0.002234 | -27.61% | 0.2511 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-03 | oos | 0.003156 | 0.003041 | -3.64% | 0.002289 | -27.46% | 0.2620 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-02 | oos | 0.003975 | 0.003754 | -5.57% | 0.002722 | -31.52% | 0.2979 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-01 | oos | 0.003762 | 0.003544 | -5.79% | 0.002247 | -40.27% | 0.4178 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-30 | oos | 0.003846 | 0.003591 | -6.62% | 0.002574 | -33.07% | 0.3297 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-29 | oos | 0.003944 | 0.003609 | -8.50% | 0.002262 | -42.65% | 0.4896 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-28 | oos | 0.005021 | 0.004722 | -5.95% | 0.002414 | -51.92% | 0.6981 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-27 | oos | 0.005559 | 0.005238 | -5.78% | 0.003086 | -44.49% | 0.5530 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-26 | oos | 0.006251 | 0.005877 | -5.98% | 0.003156 | -49.51% | 0.6256 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-25 | oos | 0.007163 | 0.006671 | -6.87% | 0.003975 | -44.51% | 0.5227 | ✓ | 1.00 |