TOLLY
Tolly · Arc · beta_5y
- token id
- #737
- symbol
- TOLLY
- variant
- –
- chain
- Arc
- address
- 0xbc43ce8dec648ea298c4275559b81d6261c90b67
- cohort
- datapoint (mid-window listing)
- first bar
- 2026-09-16
- predictions
- 84
Track record at +1d
assessed
27
of 28 predictions shown
direction hit
55.6%
alpha space; 50% is a coin flip
MAE (alpha)
0.1078
mean absolute log-return error
mean pred / actual
-0.0031
actual -0.0488
History
| as of | split | anchor px | pred px | pred Δ | actual px | actual Δ | alpha err | hit | β90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | live | 0.0017 | 0.001685 | -0.90% | – | pending | – | – | -1.65 |
| 2026-10-21 | oos | 0.001791 | 0.001774 | -0.97% | 0.0017 | +0.71% | 0.0209 | ✗ | -1.74 |
| 2026-10-20 | oos | 0.001677 | 0.001662 | -0.88% | 0.001791 | +6.80% | 0.0697 | ✗ | -1.70 |
| 2026-10-19 | oos | 0.001597 | 0.001584 | -0.84% | 0.001677 | +5.01% | 0.0814 | ✗ | -1.80 |
| 2026-10-18 | oos | 0.001213 | 0.001217 | +0.34% | 0.001597 | +31.66% | 0.2681 | ✓ | -1.68 |
| 2026-10-17 | oos | 0.001311 | 0.001315 | +0.30% | 0.001213 | -7.48% | 0.0679 | ✗ | -1.67 |
| 2026-10-16 | oos | 0.001335 | 0.001341 | +0.45% | 0.001311 | -1.80% | 0.0251 | ✗ | -1.66 |
| 2026-10-15 | oos | 0.001447 | 0.001453 | +0.40% | 0.001335 | -7.74% | 0.0769 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-14 | oos | 0.001505 | 0.001512 | +0.47% | 0.001447 | -3.85% | 0.0508 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-13 | oos | 0.001563 | 0.001572 | +0.58% | 0.001505 | -3.71% | 0.0250 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-12 | oos | 0.001742 | 0.00175 | +0.47% | 0.001563 | -10.28% | 0.1296 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-11 | oos | 0.002234 | 0.002233 | -0.06% | 0.001742 | -22.02% | 0.2247 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-10 | oos | 0.002289 | 0.00229 | +0.03% | 0.002234 | -2.42% | 0.0341 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-09 | oos | 0.002722 | 0.002708 | -0.53% | 0.002289 | -15.89% | 0.1722 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-08 | oos | 0.002247 | 0.002255 | +0.34% | 0.002722 | +21.14% | 0.1780 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-07 | oos | 0.002574 | 0.002572 | -0.07% | 0.002247 | -12.70% | 0.1160 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-06 | oos | 0.002262 | 0.002273 | +0.47% | 0.002574 | +13.79% | 0.1513 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-05 | oos | 0.002414 | 0.002423 | +0.39% | 0.002262 | -6.30% | 0.0665 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-04 | oos | 0.003086 | 0.003074 | -0.38% | 0.002414 | -21.78% | 0.2329 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-03 | oos | 0.003156 | 0.003145 | -0.35% | 0.003086 | -2.22% | 0.0395 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-02 | oos | 0.003975 | 0.003934 | -1.03% | 0.003156 | -20.60% | 0.2232 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-01 | oos | 0.003762 | 0.003727 | -0.94% | 0.003975 | +5.66% | 0.0686 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-30 | oos | 0.003846 | 0.003808 | -1.00% | 0.003762 | -2.18% | 0.0274 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-29 | oos | 0.003944 | 0.003896 | -1.22% | 0.003846 | -2.48% | 0.0119 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-28 | oos | 0.005021 | 0.004974 | -0.94% | 0.003944 | -21.45% | 0.2341 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-27 | oos | 0.005559 | 0.005507 | -0.94% | 0.005021 | -9.68% | 0.0804 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-26 | oos | 0.006251 | 0.006187 | -1.02% | 0.005559 | -11.07% | 0.1076 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-25 | oos | 0.007163 | 0.007065 | -1.36% | 0.006251 | -12.73% | 0.1263 | ✓ | 1.00 |