SWM
Swarm · · beta_5y
- token id
- #257
- symbol
- SWM
- variant
- –
- chain
- address
- cohort
- datapoint (mid-window listing)
- first bar
- 2026-08-19
- predictions
- 168
Track record at +7d
assessed
49
of 56 predictions shown
direction hit
55.1%
alpha space; 50% is a coin flip
MAE (alpha)
0.2608
mean absolute log-return error
mean pred / actual
-0.0698
actual +0.0248
History
| as of | split | anchor px | pred px | pred Δ | actual px | actual Δ | alpha err | hit | β90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | live | 0.090935 | 0.087722 | -3.53% | – | pending | – | – | -1.55 |
| 2026-10-21 | oos | 0.09181 | 0.088688 | -3.40% | – | pending | – | – | -1.57 |
| 2026-10-20 | oos | 0.091445 | 0.088178 | -3.57% | – | pending | – | – | -1.56 |
| 2026-10-19 | oos | 0.09194 | 0.088651 | -3.58% | – | pending | – | – | -1.57 |
| 2026-10-18 | oos | 0.093595 | 0.090051 | -3.79% | – | pending | – | – | -1.58 |
| 2026-10-17 | oos | 0.09361 | 0.089911 | -3.95% | – | pending | – | – | -1.58 |
| 2026-10-16 | oos | 0.09504 | 0.090955 | -4.30% | – | pending | – | – | -1.58 |
| 2026-10-15 | oos | 0.08869 | 0.085164 | -3.98% | 0.090935 | +2.53% | 0.1047 | ✗ | -1.55 |
| 2026-10-14 | oos | 0.089875 | 0.086216 | -4.07% | 0.09181 | +2.15% | 0.0843 | ✗ | -1.55 |
| 2026-10-13 | oos | 0.10361 | 0.09793 | -5.48% | 0.091445 | -11.74% | 0.0719 | ✓ | -1.69 |
| 2026-10-12 | oos | 0.100975 | 0.095678 | -5.25% | 0.09194 | -8.95% | 0.0378 | ✓ | -1.72 |
| 2026-10-11 | oos | 0.10023 | 0.094322 | -5.89% | 0.093595 | -6.62% | 0.0430 | ✓ | -1.75 |
| 2026-10-10 | oos | 0.100065 | 0.094081 | -5.98% | 0.09361 | -6.45% | 0.0377 | ✓ | -1.75 |
| 2026-10-09 | oos | 0.09889 | 0.093087 | -5.87% | 0.09504 | -3.89% | 0.0016 | ✓ | -1.75 |
| 2026-10-08 | oos | 0.099015 | 0.093234 | -5.84% | 0.08869 | -10.43% | 0.0407 | ✓ | -1.76 |
| 2026-10-07 | oos | 0.096365 | 0.090425 | -6.16% | 0.089875 | -6.73% | 0.0425 | ✓ | -1.76 |
| 2026-10-06 | oos | 0.098365 | 0.091301 | -7.18% | 0.10361 | +5.33% | 0.0735 | ✓ | -1.83 |
| 2026-10-05 | oos | 0.084465 | 0.079973 | -5.32% | 0.100975 | +19.55% | 0.1478 | ✗ | -1.78 |
| 2026-10-04 | oos | 0.092855 | 0.086795 | -6.53% | 0.10023 | +7.94% | 0.0827 | ✗ | -1.84 |
| 2026-10-03 | oos | 0.090795 | 0.085688 | -5.62% | 0.100065 | +10.21% | 0.1138 | ✗ | -1.89 |
| 2026-10-02 | oos | 0.09368 | 0.0883 | -5.74% | 0.09889 | +5.56% | 0.0688 | ✗ | -1.89 |
| 2026-10-01 | oos | 0.095145 | 0.089706 | -5.72% | 0.099015 | +4.07% | 0.0268 | ✓ | -1.90 |
| 2026-09-30 | oos | 0.10818 | 0.101265 | -6.39% | 0.096365 | -10.92% | 0.0559 | ✓ | -1.86 |
| 2026-09-29 | oos | 0.12674 | 0.117213 | -7.52% | 0.098365 | -22.39% | 0.1328 | ✓ | -1.89 |
| 2026-09-28 | oos | 0.123535 | 0.114053 | -7.68% | 0.084465 | -31.63% | 0.2492 | ✓ | -1.89 |
| 2026-09-27 | oos | 0.15819 | 0.143361 | -9.37% | 0.092855 | -41.30% | 0.3844 | ✓ | -2.09 |
| 2026-09-26 | oos | 0.127905 | 0.117305 | -8.29% | 0.090795 | -29.01% | 0.2483 | ✓ | -2.04 |
| 2026-09-25 | oos | 0.10542 | 0.098465 | -6.60% | 0.09368 | -11.14% | 0.0399 | ✓ | -2.03 |
| 2026-09-24 | oos | 0.10401 | 0.097429 | -6.33% | 0.095145 | -8.52% | 0.0126 | ✓ | -2.02 |
| 2026-09-23 | oos | 0.10388 | 0.097506 | -6.14% | 0.10818 | +4.14% | 0.0841 | ✗ | -2.02 |
| 2026-09-22 | oos | 0.094815 | 0.088992 | -6.14% | 0.12674 | +33.67% | 0.2950 | ✗ | -1.94 |
| 2026-09-21 | oos | 0.10284 | 0.096356 | -6.30% | 0.123535 | +20.12% | 0.1753 | ✗ | -1.98 |
| 2026-09-20 | oos | 0.11312 | 0.106656 | -5.71% | 0.15819 | +39.84% | 0.4793 | ✗ | -2.13 |
| 2026-09-19 | oos | 0.11891 | 0.111487 | -6.24% | 0.127905 | +7.56% | 0.2199 | ✗ | -2.15 |
| 2026-09-18 | oos | 0.1196 | 0.111388 | -6.87% | 0.10542 | -11.86% | 0.0287 | ✓ | -2.15 |
| 2026-09-17 | oos | 0.12931 | 0.120045 | -7.16% | 0.10401 | -19.57% | 0.2435 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-16 | oos | 0.14044 | 0.129182 | -8.02% | 0.10388 | -26.03% | 0.3207 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-15 | oos | 0.129815 | 0.118221 | -8.93% | 0.094815 | -26.96% | 0.3520 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-14 | oos | 0.15573 | 0.14124 | -9.30% | 0.10284 | -33.96% | 0.4196 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-13 | oos | 0.156615 | 0.140995 | -9.97% | 0.11312 | -27.77% | 0.2755 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-12 | oos | 0.18555 | 0.167021 | -9.99% | 0.11891 | -35.91% | 0.3899 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-11 | oos | 0.196105 | 0.175625 | -10.44% | 0.1196 | -39.01% | 0.4306 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-10 | oos | 0.18591 | 0.16514 | -11.17% | 0.12931 | -30.44% | 0.2421 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | oos | 0.1367 | 0.123577 | -9.60% | 0.14044 | +2.74% | 0.1556 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | oos | 0.13717 | 0.123707 | -9.81% | 0.129815 | -5.36% | 0.0854 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-07 | oos | 0.117485 | 0.10576 | -9.98% | 0.15573 | +32.55% | 0.3986 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-06 | oos | 0.102915 | 0.09267 | -9.96% | 0.156615 | +52.18% | 0.5698 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-05 | oos | 0.07698 | 0.070871 | -7.94% | 0.18555 | +141.04% | 0.9952 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-04 | oos | 0.07564 | 0.069997 | -7.46% | 0.196105 | +159.26% | 1.0616 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-03 | oos | 0.07329 | 0.06859 | -6.41% | 0.18591 | +153.66% | 1.0570 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-02 | oos | 0.07012 | 0.067185 | -4.19% | 0.1367 | +94.95% | 0.6978 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-01 | oos | 0.06978 | 0.067491 | -3.28% | 0.13717 | +96.57% | 0.6958 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-08-31 | oos | 0.06946 | 0.067788 | -2.41% | 0.117485 | +69.14% | 0.5432 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-08-30 | oos | 0.07144 | 0.069664 | -2.49% | 0.102915 | +44.06% | 0.3564 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-08-29 | oos | 0.07166 | 0.069905 | -2.45% | 0.07698 | +7.42% | 0.0762 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-08-28 | oos | 0.07463 | 0.071637 | -4.01% | 0.07564 | +1.35% | 0.0311 | ✓ | 1.00 |