SWM

Swarm · · beta_5y

token id: #257
symbol: SWM
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-19
predictions: 168

Track record at +1d

assessed

55

of 56 predictions shown

direction hit

47.3%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0733

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0102

actual +0.0042

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	live	0.090935	0.09038	-0.61%	–	pending	–	–	-1.55
2026-10-21	oos	0.09181	0.091307	-0.55%	0.090935	+0.12%	0.0103	✗	-1.57
2026-10-20	oos	0.091445	0.090932	-0.56%	0.09181	+0.40%	0.0050	✓	-1.56
2026-10-19	oos	0.09194	0.091418	-0.57%	0.091445	-0.54%	0.0213	✗	-1.57
2026-10-18	oos	0.093595	0.093016	-0.62%	0.09194	-1.77%	0.0149	✓	-1.58
2026-10-17	oos	0.09361	0.093006	-0.65%	0.093595	-0.02%	0.0184	✗	-1.58
2026-10-16	oos	0.09504	0.094356	-0.72%	0.09361	-1.50%	0.0102	✓	-1.58
2026-10-15	oos	0.08869	0.088197	-0.56%	0.09504	+7.16%	0.0629	✗	-1.55
2026-10-14	oos	0.089875	0.089392	-0.54%	0.08869	-1.32%	0.0027	✓	-1.55
2026-10-13	oos	0.10361	0.102695	-0.88%	0.089875	-13.26%	0.1649	✓	-1.69
2026-10-12	oos	0.100975	0.100149	-0.82%	0.10361	+2.61%	0.0624	✗	-1.72
2026-10-11	oos	0.10023	0.099341	-0.89%	0.100975	+0.74%	0.0246	✓	-1.75
2026-10-10	oos	0.100065	0.099135	-0.93%	0.10023	+0.16%	0.0271	✗	-1.75
2026-10-09	oos	0.09889	0.098017	-0.88%	0.100065	+1.19%	0.0284	✗	-1.75
2026-10-08	oos	0.099015	0.098122	-0.90%	0.09889	-0.13%	0.0261	✗	-1.76
2026-10-07	oos	0.096365	0.09549	-0.91%	0.099015	+2.75%	0.0025	✓	-1.76
2026-10-06	oos	0.098365	0.097244	-1.14%	0.096365	-2.03%	0.0582	✓	-1.83
2026-10-05	oos	0.084465	0.083967	-0.59%	0.098365	+16.46%	0.1539	✗	-1.78
2026-10-04	oos	0.092855	0.092025	-0.89%	0.084465	-9.04%	0.1019	✓	-1.84
2026-10-03	oos	0.090795	0.090152	-0.71%	0.092855	+2.27%	0.0686	✗	-1.89
2026-10-02	oos	0.09368	0.092975	-0.75%	0.090795	-3.08%	0.0184	✓	-1.89
2026-10-01	oos	0.095145	0.094506	-0.67%	0.09368	-1.54%	0.0165	✓	-1.90
2026-09-30	oos	0.10818	0.107292	-0.82%	0.095145	-12.05%	0.0917	✓	-1.86
2026-09-29	oos	0.12674	0.125301	-1.14%	0.10818	-14.64%	0.1488	✓	-1.89
2026-09-28	oos	0.123535	0.122219	-1.07%	0.12674	+2.59%	0.0404	✗	-1.89
2026-09-27	oos	0.15819	0.15514	-1.93%	0.123535	-21.91%	0.2528	✓	-2.09
2026-09-26	oos	0.127905	0.125981	-1.50%	0.15819	+23.68%	0.2288	✗	-2.04
2026-09-25	oos	0.10542	0.104381	-0.99%	0.127905	+21.33%	0.2110	✗	-2.03
2026-09-24	oos	0.10401	0.103042	-0.93%	0.10542	+1.36%	0.0158	✗	-2.02
2026-09-23	oos	0.10388	0.102917	-0.93%	0.10401	+0.13%	0.0107	✗	-2.02
2026-09-22	oos	0.094815	0.094066	-0.79%	0.10388	+9.56%	0.0578	✗	-1.94
2026-09-21	oos	0.10284	0.101961	-0.85%	0.094815	-7.80%	0.0818	✓	-1.98
2026-09-20	oos	0.11312	0.11219	-0.82%	0.10284	-9.09%	0.0513	✗	-2.13
2026-09-19	oos	0.11891	0.117774	-0.96%	0.11312	-4.87%	0.0423	✓	-2.15
2026-09-18	oos	0.1196	0.118393	-1.01%	0.11891	-0.58%	0.0139	✗	-2.15
2026-09-17	oos	0.12931	0.127885	-1.10%	0.1196	-7.51%	0.1246	✓	1.00
2026-09-16	oos	0.14044	0.138553	-1.34%	0.12931	-7.93%	0.0717	✓	1.00
2026-09-15	oos	0.129815	0.128141	-1.29%	0.14044	+8.18%	0.0843	✗	1.00
2026-09-14	oos	0.15573	0.153461	-1.46%	0.129815	-16.64%	0.1336	✓	1.00
2026-09-13	oos	0.156615	0.154282	-1.49%	0.15573	-0.57%	0.0084	✓	1.00
2026-09-12	oos	0.18555	0.182489	-1.65%	0.156615	-15.59%	0.1469	✓	1.00
2026-09-11	oos	0.196105	0.192332	-1.92%	0.18555	-5.38%	0.0366	✓	1.00
2026-09-10	oos	0.18591	0.181403	-2.42%	0.196105	+5.48%	0.0692	✗	1.00
2026-09-09	oos	0.1367	0.134408	-1.68%	0.18591	+36.00%	0.3470	✗	1.00
2026-09-08	oos	0.13717	0.134578	-1.89%	0.1367	-0.34%	0.0177	✓	1.00
2026-09-07	oos	0.117485	0.115168	-1.97%	0.13717	+16.76%	0.1830	✗	1.00
2026-09-06	oos	0.102915	0.100887	-1.97%	0.117485	+14.16%	0.1680	✗	1.00
2026-09-05	oos	0.07698	0.076069	-1.18%	0.102915	+33.69%	0.2959	✗	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.07564	0.074796	-1.12%	0.07698	+1.77%	0.0268	✗	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.07329	0.072668	-0.85%	0.07564	+3.21%	0.0598	✗	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07012	0.069844	-0.39%	0.07329	+4.52%	0.0017	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.06978	0.069592	-0.27%	0.07012	+0.49%	0.0087	✗	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.06946	0.06936	-0.14%	0.06978	+0.46%	0.0210	✗	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.07144	0.071246	-0.27%	0.06946	-2.77%	0.0369	✓	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.07166	0.07136	-0.42%	0.07144	-0.31%	0.0084	✗	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.07463	0.073731	-1.20%	0.07166	-3.98%	0.0336	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.