PRL

Pearl · native · beta_5y

token id: #318
symbol: PRL
variant: –
chain: native
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-03-25
predictions: 609

Track record at +7d

assessed

196

of 203 predictions shown

direction hit

53.1%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1644

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0225

actual -0.0306

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	live	0.099715	0.09828	-1.44%	–	pending	–	–	-0.46
2026-10-21	oos	0.09683	0.09521	-1.67%	–	pending	–	–	-0.49
2026-10-20	oos	0.09595	0.094199	-1.82%	–	pending	–	–	-0.49
2026-10-19	oos	0.086455	0.085301	-1.33%	–	pending	–	–	-0.52
2026-10-18	oos	0.089395	0.088273	-1.26%	–	pending	–	–	-0.51
2026-10-17	oos	0.09256	0.091378	-1.28%	–	pending	–	–	-0.50
2026-10-16	oos	0.09638	0.095116	-1.31%	–	pending	–	–	-0.51
2026-10-15	oos	0.098895	0.097491	-1.42%	0.099715	+0.83%	0.0353	✗	-0.51
2026-10-14	oos	0.10321	0.101644	-1.52%	0.09683	-6.18%	0.0416	✓	-0.50
2026-10-13	oos	0.1071	0.105382	-1.60%	0.09595	-10.41%	0.0948	✓	-0.52
2026-10-12	oos	0.10897	0.106885	-1.91%	0.086455	-20.66%	0.2115	✓	-0.52
2026-10-11	oos	0.11286	0.110548	-2.05%	0.089395	-20.79%	0.2216	✓	-0.46
2026-10-10	oos	0.11281	0.110202	-2.31%	0.09256	-17.95%	0.1824	✓	-0.43
2026-10-09	oos	0.112985	0.110407	-2.28%	0.09638	-14.70%	0.1413	✓	-0.43
2026-10-08	oos	0.112445	0.109672	-2.47%	0.098895	-12.05%	0.1012	✓	-0.43
2026-10-07	oos	0.112855	0.109745	-2.76%	0.10321	-8.55%	0.0701	✓	-0.42
2026-10-06	oos	0.114295	0.111375	-2.55%	0.1071	-6.30%	0.0518	✓	-0.44
2026-10-05	oos	0.1153	0.112163	-2.72%	0.10897	-5.49%	0.0471	✓	-0.38
2026-10-04	oos	0.115245	0.112187	-2.65%	0.11286	-2.07%	0.0067	✓	-0.38
2026-10-03	oos	0.11641	0.112887	-3.03%	0.11281	-3.09%	0.0088	✓	-0.37
2026-10-02	oos	0.1163	0.112426	-3.33%	0.112985	-2.85%	0.0039	✓	-0.38
2026-10-01	oos	0.117695	0.113618	-3.46%	0.112445	-4.46%	0.0246	✓	-0.38
2026-09-30	oos	0.11663	0.112261	-3.75%	0.112855	-3.24%	0.0041	✓	-0.35
2026-09-29	oos	0.116075	0.111698	-3.77%	0.114295	-1.53%	0.0306	✓	-0.34
2026-09-28	oos	0.115385	0.110967	-3.83%	0.1153	-0.07%	0.0467	✗	-0.31
2026-09-27	oos	0.12233	0.117591	-3.87%	0.115245	-5.79%	0.0128	✓	-0.31
2026-09-26	oos	0.12269	0.117748	-4.03%	0.11641	-5.12%	0.0103	✓	-0.29
2026-09-25	oos	0.12086	0.115781	-4.20%	0.1163	-3.77%	0.0059	✓	-0.30
2026-09-24	oos	0.11888	0.113727	-4.33%	0.117695	-1.00%	0.0360	✓	-0.30
2026-09-23	oos	0.11387	0.108766	-4.48%	0.11663	+2.42%	0.0669	✗	-0.30
2026-09-22	oos	0.12082	0.116541	-3.54%	0.116075	-3.93%	0.0150	✓	-0.36
2026-09-21	oos	0.118115	0.113905	-3.56%	0.115385	-2.31%	0.0006	✓	-0.33
2026-09-20	oos	0.11549	0.110191	-4.59%	0.12233	+5.92%	0.1215	✗	-0.43
2026-09-19	oos	0.11687	0.110927	-5.09%	0.12269	+4.98%	0.1174	✗	-0.43
2026-09-18	oos	0.11423	0.109224	-4.38%	0.12086	+5.80%	0.1177	✗	-0.42
2026-09-17	oos	0.1089	0.105653	-2.98%	0.11888	+9.16%	0.1725	✗	-0.55
2026-09-16	oos	0.1093	0.106078	-2.95%	0.11387	+4.18%	0.1278	✗	-0.55
2026-09-15	oos	0.107435	0.104874	-2.38%	0.12082	+12.46%	0.2095	✗	-0.52
2026-09-14	oos	0.113295	0.110229	-2.71%	0.118115	+4.25%	0.1263	✗	-0.56
2026-09-13	oos	0.110605	0.108147	-2.22%	0.11549	+4.42%	0.0953	✗	-0.54
2026-09-12	oos	0.117375	0.114334	-2.59%	0.11687	-0.43%	0.0498	✗	-0.56
2026-09-11	oos	0.1145	0.11215	-2.05%	0.11423	-0.24%	0.0444	✗	-0.56
2026-09-10	oos	0.10966	0.108448	-1.11%	0.1089	-0.69%	0.0028	✓	-0.56
2026-09-09	oos	0.117875	0.115801	-1.76%	0.1093	-7.27%	0.0749	✓	-0.62
2026-09-08	oos	0.125695	0.123043	-2.11%	0.107435	-14.53%	0.1538	✓	-0.49
2026-09-07	oos	0.13255	0.128497	-3.06%	0.113295	-14.53%	0.1318	✓	-0.50
2026-09-06	oos	0.12763	0.125899	-1.36%	0.110605	-13.34%	0.1494	✓	-0.44
2026-09-05	oos	0.12613	0.125399	-0.58%	0.117375	-6.94%	0.0810	✓	-0.46
2026-09-04	oos	0.12391	0.124522	+0.49%	0.1145	-7.59%	0.0967	✗	-0.41
2026-09-03	oos	0.12911	0.130412	+1.01%	0.10966	-15.06%	0.1994	✗	-0.44
2026-09-02	oos	0.13655	0.137192	+0.47%	0.117875	-13.68%	0.1484	✗	-0.27
2026-09-01	oos	0.14876	0.148893	+0.09%	0.125695	-15.50%	0.1659	✗	-0.26
2026-08-31	oos	0.15862	0.158999	+0.24%	0.13255	-16.44%	0.1796	✗	-0.35
2026-08-30	oos	0.17393	0.173119	-0.47%	0.12763	-26.62%	0.2958	✓	-0.27
2026-08-29	oos	0.18234	0.181542	-0.44%	0.12613	-30.83%	0.3591	✓	-0.25
2026-08-28	oos	0.187175	0.186012	-0.62%	0.12391	-33.80%	0.4005	✓	-0.25
2026-08-27	oos	0.20275	0.202062	-0.34%	0.12911	-36.32%	0.4442	✓	-0.30
2026-08-26	oos	0.20398	0.202694	-0.63%	0.13655	-33.06%	0.4017	✓	-0.30
2026-08-25	oos	0.21216	0.210429	-0.82%	0.14876	-29.88%	0.3517	✓	-0.34
2026-08-24	oos	0.219885	0.2181	-0.81%	0.15862	-27.86%	0.3201	✓	-0.32
2026-08-23	oos	0.2312	0.228788	-1.04%	0.17393	-24.77%	0.2744	✓	-0.26
2026-08-22	oos	0.2294	0.227503	-0.83%	0.18234	-20.51%	0.2172	✓	-0.27
2026-08-21	oos	0.25231	0.250658	-0.65%	0.187175	-25.82%	0.2940	✓	-0.31
2026-08-20	oos	0.25681	0.254204	-1.01%	0.20275	-21.05%	0.1968	✓	-0.31
2026-08-19	oos	0.31667	0.311718	-1.56%	0.20398	-35.59%	0.4303	✓	0.05
2026-08-18	oos	0.44811	0.431257	-3.76%	0.21216	-52.65%	0.8898	✓	0.93
2026-08-17	oos	0.39028	0.379025	-2.88%	0.219885	-43.66%	0.7272	✓	0.90
2026-08-16	oos	0.39762	0.384334	-3.34%	0.2312	-41.85%	0.7106	✓	0.95
2026-08-15	oos	0.354585	0.342006	-3.55%	0.2294	-35.30%	0.5903	✓	0.95
2026-08-14	oos	0.35075	0.338735	-3.43%	0.25231	-28.07%	0.5027	✓	0.95
2026-08-13	oos	0.300195	0.293691	-2.17%	0.25681	-14.45%	0.2757	✓	1.01
2026-08-12	oos	0.323825	0.315449	-2.59%	0.31667	-2.21%	0.0941	✓	1.10
2026-08-11	oos	0.330115	0.319914	-3.09%	0.44811	+35.74%	0.3179	✗	1.06
2026-08-10	oos	0.304755	0.295989	-2.88%	0.39028	+28.06%	0.2671	✗	1.07
2026-08-09	oos	0.2748	0.26866	-2.23%	0.39762	+44.69%	0.4281	✗	1.14
2026-08-08	oos	0.300765	0.292457	-2.76%	0.354585	+17.89%	0.2265	✗	1.15
2026-08-07	oos	0.284025	0.275623	-2.96%	0.35075	+23.49%	0.2733	✗	1.08
2026-08-06	oos	0.279705	0.271952	-2.77%	0.300195	+7.33%	0.1130	✗	1.08
2026-08-05	oos	0.27185	0.264336	-2.76%	0.323825	+19.12%	0.2232	✗	1.09
2026-08-04	oos	0.257085	0.250396	-2.60%	0.330115	+28.41%	0.2849	✗	1.05
2026-08-03	oos	0.25844	0.250766	-2.97%	0.304755	+17.92%	0.1878	✗	1.03
2026-08-02	oos	0.2655	0.255962	-3.59%	0.2748	+3.50%	0.0487	✗	1.06
2026-08-01	oos	0.24187	0.235202	-2.76%	0.300765	+24.35%	0.2108	✗	1.04
2026-07-31	oos	0.24613	0.237746	-3.41%	0.284025	+15.40%	0.1441	✗	1.04
2026-07-30	oos	0.24718	0.237196	-4.04%	0.279705	+13.16%	0.1724	✗	1.08
2026-07-29	oos	0.2118	0.205262	-3.09%	0.27185	+28.35%	0.2712	✗	0.89
2026-07-28	oos	0.18124	0.178152	-1.70%	0.257085	+41.85%	0.3641	✗	0.84
2026-07-27	oos	0.180795	0.177298	-1.93%	0.25844	+42.95%	0.3799	✗	0.86
2026-07-26	oos	0.19156	0.185929	-2.94%	0.2655	+38.60%	0.3789	✗	0.79
2026-07-25	oos	0.180655	0.177402	-1.80%	0.24187	+33.89%	0.3235	✗	0.56
2026-07-24	oos	0.17977	0.17617	-2.00%	0.24613	+36.91%	0.3460	✗	0.59
2026-07-23	oos	0.17194	0.169491	-1.42%	0.24718	+43.76%	0.3804	✗	0.61
2026-07-22	oos	0.170375	0.16839	-1.17%	0.2118	+24.31%	0.2501	✗	0.61
2026-07-21	oos	0.176875	0.174739	-1.21%	0.18124	+2.47%	0.0609	✗	0.60
2026-07-20	oos	0.17387	0.171797	-1.19%	0.180795	+3.98%	0.0654	✗	0.61
2026-07-19	oos	0.17227	0.170296	-1.15%	0.19156	+11.20%	0.1114	✗	0.61
2026-07-18	oos	0.1727	0.170816	-1.09%	0.180655	+4.61%	0.0617	✗	0.74
2026-07-17	oos	0.17012	0.168259	-1.09%	0.17977	+5.67%	0.0642	✗	0.68
2026-07-16	oos	0.168865	0.16706	-1.07%	0.17194	+1.82%	0.0122	✗	0.84
2026-07-15	oos	0.16945	0.167909	-0.91%	0.170375	+0.55%	0.0005	✓	0.67
2026-07-14	oos	0.175085	0.173134	-1.11%	0.176875	+1.02%	0.0037	✓	0.76
2026-07-13	oos	0.165275	0.163495	-1.08%	0.17387	+5.20%	0.0280	✗	0.73
2026-07-12	oos	0.170995	0.169182	-1.06%	0.17227	+0.75%	0.0077	✓	0.71
2026-07-11	oos	0.16921	0.167568	-0.97%	0.1727	+2.06%	0.0212	✗	0.57
2026-07-10	oos	0.173995	0.172169	-1.05%	0.17012	-2.23%	0.0102	✓	0.48
2026-07-09	oos	0.16962	0.168102	-0.89%	0.168865	-0.45%	0.0001	✓	0.47
2026-07-08	oos	0.172195	0.170595	-0.93%	0.16945	-1.59%	0.0246	✓	0.46
2026-07-07	oos	0.18963	0.186919	-1.43%	0.175085	-7.67%	0.0758	✓	0.40
2026-07-06	oos	0.19	0.187198	-1.47%	0.165275	-13.01%	0.1138	✓	0.39
2026-07-05	oos	0.172495	0.170728	-1.02%	0.170995	-0.87%	0.0007	✓	0.35
2026-07-04	oos	0.184115	0.180844	-1.78%	0.16921	-8.10%	0.0705	✓	0.37
2026-07-03	oos	0.17919	0.176313	-1.61%	0.173995	-2.90%	0.0253	✓	0.47
2026-07-02	oos	0.167965	0.165553	-1.44%	0.16962	+0.99%	0.0116	✓	0.47
2026-07-01	oos	0.16593	0.163215	-1.64%	0.172195	+3.78%	0.0361	✗	0.47
2026-06-30	oos	0.15907	0.156545	-1.59%	0.18963	+19.21%	0.1551	✗	0.47
2026-06-29	oos	0.16325	0.159978	-2.00%	0.19	+16.39%	0.1440	✗	0.45
2026-06-28	oos	0.154175	0.151629	-1.65%	0.172495	+11.88%	0.1076	✗	0.32
2026-06-27	oos	0.150835	0.148116	-1.80%	0.184115	+22.06%	0.2052	✗	0.24
2026-06-26	oos	0.14411	0.141781	-1.62%	0.17919	+24.34%	0.2246	✗	0.23
2026-06-25	oos	0.14418	0.14149	-1.87%	0.167965	+16.50%	0.1646	✗	0.23
2026-06-24	oos	0.1387	0.136624	-1.50%	0.16593	+19.63%	0.2025	✗	0.48
2026-06-23	oos	0.14184	0.139452	-1.68%	0.15907	+12.15%	0.1495	✗	0.26
2026-06-22	oos	0.13865	0.137032	-1.17%	0.16325	+17.74%	0.1921	✗	0.28
2026-06-21	oos	0.14252	0.140812	-1.20%	0.154175	+8.18%	0.1084	✗	0.29
2026-06-20	oos	0.14479	0.14315	-1.13%	0.150835	+4.18%	0.0720	✗	0.29
2026-06-19	oos	0.144445	0.142912	-1.06%	0.14411	-0.23%	0.0244	✗	0.29
2026-06-18	oos	0.151155	0.149367	-1.18%	0.14418	-4.61%	0.0198	✓	0.30
2026-06-17	oos	0.15744	0.155415	-1.29%	0.1387	-11.90%	0.0985	✓	0.28
2026-06-16	oos	0.16476	0.162582	-1.32%	0.14184	-13.91%	0.1246	✓	0.26
2026-06-15	oos	0.18421	0.181198	-1.64%	0.13865	-24.73%	0.2595	✓	0.23
2026-06-14	oos	0.19015	0.18646	-1.94%	0.14252	-25.05%	0.2596	✓	0.24
2026-06-13	oos	0.195935	0.191494	-2.27%	0.14479	-26.10%	0.2787	✓	0.26
2026-06-12	oos	0.191665	0.18712	-2.37%	0.144445	-24.64%	0.2586	✓	0.25
2026-06-11	oos	0.1988	0.192246	-3.30%	0.151155	-23.97%	0.2377	✓	0.25
2026-06-10	oos	0.17579	0.172312	-1.98%	0.15744	-10.44%	0.0962	✓	0.13
2026-06-09	oos	0.179975	0.176025	-2.19%	0.16476	-8.45%	0.0738	✓	0.12
2026-06-08	oos	0.18887	0.184157	-2.50%	0.18421	-2.47%	0.0043	✓	0.09
2026-06-07	oos	0.178	0.173966	-2.27%	0.19015	+6.83%	0.0854	✗	0.10
2026-06-06	oos	0.17343	0.169913	-2.03%	0.195935	+12.98%	0.1387	✗	0.07
2026-06-05	oos	0.17492	0.171399	-2.01%	0.191665	+9.57%	0.1091	✗	0.07
2026-06-04	oos	0.18829	0.183456	-2.57%	0.1988	+5.58%	0.0801	✗	-0.05
2026-06-03	oos	0.20735	0.200316	-3.39%	0.17579	-15.22%	0.1329	✓	-0.06
2026-06-02	oos	0.19479	0.188429	-3.27%	0.179975	-7.61%	0.0435	✓	0.03
2026-06-01	oos	0.19786	0.191695	-3.12%	0.18887	-4.54%	0.0173	✓	-0.02
2026-05-31	oos	0.20331	0.195327	-3.93%	0.178	-12.45%	0.1031	✓	-0.07
2026-05-30	oos	0.20295	0.194132	-4.34%	0.17343	-14.55%	0.1259	✓	-0.07
2026-05-29	oos	0.181715	0.175378	-3.49%	0.17492	-3.74%	0.0202	✓	-0.10
2026-05-28	oos	0.17852	0.170609	-4.43%	0.18829	+5.47%	0.0853	✗	-0.09
2026-05-27	oos	0.15387	0.150584	-2.14%	0.20735	+34.76%	0.3186	✗	-0.01
2026-05-26	oos	0.16026	0.157225	-1.89%	0.19479	+21.55%	0.2076	✗	-0.05
2026-05-25	oos	0.17268	0.168884	-2.20%	0.19786	+14.58%	0.1479	✗	-0.13
2026-05-24	oos	0.17963	0.175772	-2.15%	0.20331	+13.18%	0.1399	✗	-0.13
2026-05-23	oos	0.191655	0.187037	-2.41%	0.20295	+5.89%	0.0772	✗	-0.12
2026-05-22	oos	0.18882	0.184739	-2.16%	0.181715	-3.76%	0.0200	✓	-0.13
2026-05-21	oos	0.19739	0.192959	-2.24%	0.17852	-9.56%	0.0889	✓	-0.21
2026-05-20	oos	0.200525	0.196335	-2.09%	0.15387	-23.27%	0.2524	✓	-0.21
2026-05-19	oos	0.200605	0.196858	-1.87%	0.16026	-20.11%	0.2082	✓	-0.21
2026-05-18	oos	0.206865	0.202758	-1.99%	0.17268	-16.53%	0.1597	✓	-0.21
2026-05-17	oos	0.19963	0.196989	-1.32%	0.17963	-10.02%	0.0934	✓	-0.20
2026-05-16	oos	0.20361	0.201206	-1.18%	0.191655	-5.87%	0.0527	✓	-0.22
2026-05-15	oos	0.219995	0.216799	-1.45%	0.18882	-14.17%	0.1516	✓	-0.29
2026-05-14	oos	0.2512	0.246222	-1.98%	0.19739	-21.42%	0.2446	✓	-0.53
2026-05-13	oos	0.25513	0.249715	-2.12%	0.200525	-21.40%	0.2312	✓	-0.51
2026-05-12	oos	0.25496	0.25011	-1.90%	0.200605	-21.32%	0.2456	✓	-0.53
2026-05-11	oos	0.27403	0.268258	-2.11%	0.206865	-24.51%	0.2982	✓	-0.64
2026-05-10	oos	0.27135	0.266061	-1.95%	0.19963	-26.43%	0.3257	✓	-0.64
2026-05-09	oos	0.28986	0.282635	-2.49%	0.20361	-29.76%	0.3462	✓	-0.57
2026-05-08	oos	0.28383	0.276933	-2.43%	0.219995	-22.49%	0.2383	✓	-0.57
2026-05-07	oos	0.27438	0.268254	-2.23%	0.2512	-8.45%	0.0581	✓	-0.57
2026-05-06	oos	0.26746	0.262305	-1.93%	0.25513	-4.61%	0.0429	✓	-0.57
2026-05-05	oos	0.283635	0.274797	-3.12%	0.25496	-10.11%	0.0778	✓	-0.55
2026-05-04	oos	0.26549	0.259332	-2.32%	0.27403	+3.22%	0.0689	✗	-0.59
2026-05-03	oos	0.25235	0.247286	-2.01%	0.27135	+7.53%	0.1217	✗	-0.64
2026-05-02	oos	0.26266	0.257157	-2.10%	0.28986	+10.36%	0.1359	✗	-0.65
2026-05-01	oos	0.25282	0.248669	-1.64%	0.28383	+12.27%	0.1485	✗	-0.66
2026-04-30	oos	0.28061	0.274281	-2.26%	0.27438	-2.22%	0.0237	✗	-0.49
2026-04-29	oos	0.31369	0.304023	-3.08%	0.26746	-14.74%	0.0960	✓	-0.44
2026-04-28	oos	0.35463	0.336222	-5.19%	0.283635	-20.02%	0.1384	✓	-0.54
2026-04-27	oos	0.3251	0.302751	-6.87%	0.26549	-18.34%	0.1163	✓	-0.48
2026-04-26	oos	0.22072	0.217072	-1.65%	0.25235	+14.33%	0.1507	✗	0.06
2026-04-25	oos	0.20786	0.205091	-1.33%	0.26266	+26.36%	0.2472	✗	0.02
2026-04-24	oos	0.205465	0.203251	-1.08%	0.25282	+23.05%	0.2181	✗	0.02
2026-04-23	oos	0.20197	0.201012	-0.47%	0.28061	+38.94%	0.3592	✗	1.00
2026-04-22	oos	0.23358	0.229158	-1.89%	0.31369	+34.30%	0.3459	✗	1.00
2026-04-21	oos	0.22605	0.220933	-2.26%	0.35463	+56.88%	0.4736	✗	1.00
2026-04-20	oos	0.22024	0.214137	-2.77%	0.3251	+47.61%	0.3979	✗	1.00
2026-04-19	oos	0.19005	0.186619	-1.81%	0.22072	+16.14%	0.1042	✗	1.00
2026-04-18	oos	0.18005	0.178022	-1.13%	0.20786	+15.45%	0.1300	✗	1.00
2026-04-17	oos	0.24832	0.238493	-3.96%	0.205465	-17.26%	0.1538	✓	1.00
2026-04-16	oos	0.29724	0.272204	-8.42%	0.20197	-32.05%	0.3391	✓	1.00
2026-04-15	oos	0.18078	0.177592	-1.76%	0.23358	+29.21%	0.2300	✗	1.00
2026-04-14	oos	0.17941	0.176031	-1.88%	0.22605	+26.00%	0.2213	✗	1.00
2026-04-13	oos	0.17572	0.172564	-1.80%	0.22024	+25.34%	0.2251	✗	1.00
2026-04-12	oos	0.18519	0.179725	-2.95%	0.19005	+2.62%	0.0134	✓	1.00
2026-04-11	oos	0.17241	0.168468	-2.29%	0.18005	+4.43%	0.0309	✗	1.00
2026-04-10	oos	0.16176	0.158541	-1.99%	0.24832	+53.51%	0.3941	✗	1.00
2026-04-09	oos	0.16878	0.164878	-2.31%	0.29724	+76.11%	0.5435	✗	1.00
2026-04-08	oos	0.17473	0.170107	-2.65%	0.18078	+3.46%	0.0094	✓	1.00
2026-04-07	oos	0.17153	0.16729	-2.47%	0.17941	+4.59%	0.0389	✗	1.00
2026-04-06	oos	0.17115	0.166496	-2.72%	0.17572	+2.67%	0.0242	✓	1.00
2026-04-05	oos	0.19287	0.185174	-3.99%	0.18519	-3.98%	0.0250	✓	1.00
2026-04-04	oos	0.16536	0.159457	-3.57%	0.17241	+4.26%	0.0045	✓	1.00
2026-04-03	oos	0.14425	0.140463	-2.63%	0.16176	+12.14%	0.0548	✗	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.