GENIUS

Genius · Binance Smart Chain · beta_5y

token id: #408
symbol: GENIUS
variant: –
chain: Binance Smart Chain
address: 0x1f12b85aac097e43aa1555b2881e98a51090e9a6
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-05-15
predictions: 456

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +30d

assessed

122

of 152 predictions shown

direction hit

85.2%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1230

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0120

actual -0.0868

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.3105	0.306989	-1.13%	–	pending	–	–	-0.08
2026-10-21	oos	0.3103	0.30738	-0.94%	–	pending	–	–	-0.10
2026-10-20	oos	0.3057	0.301501	-1.37%	–	pending	–	–	-0.10
2026-10-19	oos	0.30015	0.296197	-1.32%	–	pending	–	–	-0.10
2026-10-18	oos	0.3024	0.299229	-1.05%	–	pending	–	–	-0.04
2026-10-17	oos	0.29965	0.296013	-1.21%	–	pending	–	–	-0.04
2026-10-16	oos	0.3056	0.302976	-0.86%	–	pending	–	–	-0.04
2026-10-15	oos	0.30045	0.299196	-0.42%	–	pending	–	–	-0.04
2026-10-14	oos	0.31885	0.31402	-1.51%	–	pending	–	–	-0.03
2026-10-13	oos	0.3176	0.314327	-1.03%	–	pending	–	–	-0.03
2026-10-12	oos	0.32945	0.32241	-2.14%	–	pending	–	–	-0.02
2026-10-11	oos	0.3359	0.330316	-1.66%	–	pending	–	–	-0.02
2026-10-10	oos	0.346	0.338145	-2.27%	–	pending	–	–	0.01
2026-10-09	oos	0.3428	0.334686	-2.37%	–	pending	–	–	0.01
2026-10-08	oos	0.3213	0.314456	-2.13%	–	pending	–	–	0.00
2026-10-07	oos	0.324	0.319068	-1.52%	–	pending	–	–	-0.00
2026-10-06	oos	0.32765	0.325005	-0.81%	–	pending	–	–	-0.02
2026-10-05	oos	0.32845	0.325788	-0.81%	–	pending	–	–	0.01
2026-10-04	oos	0.31975	0.31944	-0.10%	–	pending	–	–	0.02
2026-10-03	oos	0.32535	0.322334	-0.93%	–	pending	–	–	0.03
2026-10-02	oos	0.32695	0.323166	-1.16%	–	pending	–	–	0.03
2026-10-01	oos	0.31835	0.315987	-0.74%	–	pending	–	–	0.04
2026-09-30	oos	0.3226	0.319489	-0.96%	–	pending	–	–	0.04
2026-09-29	oos	0.31945	0.316505	-0.92%	–	pending	–	–	0.03
2026-09-28	oos	0.3168	0.31442	-0.75%	–	pending	–	–	0.03
2026-09-27	oos	0.3292	0.326418	-0.85%	–	pending	–	–	0.01
2026-09-26	oos	0.34275	0.339279	-1.01%	–	pending	–	–	0.02
2026-09-25	oos	0.349	0.345703	-0.94%	–	pending	–	–	0.01
2026-09-24	oos	0.35475	0.352178	-0.73%	–	pending	–	–	0.02
2026-09-23	oos	0.3426	0.343138	+0.16%	–	pending	–	–	0.02
2026-09-22	oos	0.35245	0.356742	+1.22%	0.3105	-11.90%	0.1392	✗	-0.02
2026-09-21	oos	0.35885	0.363513	+1.30%	0.3103	-13.53%	0.1583	✗	-0.00
2026-09-20	oos	0.3747	0.368628	-1.62%	0.3057	-18.41%	0.1891	✓	0.09
2026-09-19	oos	0.34085	0.339958	-0.26%	0.30015	-11.94%	0.1252	✓	0.09
2026-09-18	oos	0.3402	0.338349	-0.54%	0.3024	-11.11%	0.1137	✓	0.10
2026-09-17	oos	0.3605	0.346617	-3.85%	0.29965	-16.88%	0.1592	✓	0.21
2026-09-16	oos	0.3024	0.298604	-1.26%	0.3056	+1.06%	0.0078	✓	0.23
2026-09-15	oos	0.3036	0.300188	-1.12%	0.30045	-1.04%	0.0245	✓	0.31
2026-09-14	oos	0.2988	0.299019	+0.07%	0.31885	+6.71%	0.0493	✓	0.35
2026-09-13	oos	0.29545	0.294668	-0.26%	0.3176	+7.50%	0.0473	✗	0.35
2026-09-12	oos	0.29705	0.296702	-0.12%	0.32945	+10.91%	0.0864	✗	0.33
2026-09-11	oos	0.30415	0.304981	+0.27%	0.3359	+10.44%	0.0662	✓	0.38
2026-09-10	oos	0.2871	0.288885	+0.62%	0.346	+20.52%	0.1517	✓	0.36
2026-09-09	oos	0.28855	0.293408	+1.68%	0.3428	+18.80%	0.1360	✓	0.37
2026-09-08	oos	0.30395	0.307532	+1.18%	0.3213	+5.71%	0.0292	✓	0.36
2026-09-07	oos	0.2922	0.298177	+2.05%	0.324	+10.88%	0.0642	✓	0.37
2026-09-06	oos	0.2962	0.30442	+2.78%	0.32765	+10.62%	0.0502	✓	0.37
2026-09-05	oos	0.30035	0.308514	+2.72%	0.32845	+9.36%	0.0359	✓	0.37
2026-09-04	oos	0.2933	0.304424	+3.79%	0.31975	+9.02%	0.0067	✓	0.52
2026-09-03	oos	0.29125	0.309744	+6.35%	0.32535	+11.71%	0.0264	✓	0.54
2026-09-02	oos	0.2859	0.30144	+5.44%	0.32695	+14.36%	0.0379	✓	0.49
2026-09-01	oos	0.2773	0.295463	+6.55%	0.31835	+14.80%	0.0280	✓	0.51
2026-08-31	oos	0.2837	0.302844	+6.75%	0.3226	+13.71%	0.0299	✓	0.54
2026-08-30	oos	0.28175	0.301098	+6.87%	0.31945	+13.38%	0.0413	✓	0.24
2026-08-29	oos	0.2845	0.306068	+7.58%	0.3168	+11.35%	0.0191	✓	0.24
2026-08-28	oos	0.28265	0.305192	+7.98%	0.3292	+16.47%	0.0560	✓	0.24
2026-08-27	oos	0.3045	0.332403	+9.16%	0.34275	+12.56%	0.0206	✓	0.20
2026-08-26	oos	0.30725	0.333394	+8.51%	0.349	+13.59%	0.0318	✓	0.22
2026-08-25	oos	0.3083	0.337544	+9.49%	0.35475	+15.07%	0.0312	✓	0.26
2026-08-24	oos	0.3126	0.344125	+10.08%	0.3426	+9.60%	0.0188	✓	0.22
2026-08-23	oos	0.324	0.35369	+9.16%	0.35245	+8.78%	0.0242	✓	0.20
2026-08-22	oos	0.3344	0.361418	+8.08%	0.35885	+7.31%	0.0299	✓	0.20
2026-08-21	oos	0.34135	0.371913	+8.95%	0.3747	+9.77%	0.0003	✓	0.20
2026-08-20	oos	0.3111	0.327472	+5.26%	0.34085	+9.56%	0.0340	✓	0.06
2026-08-19	oos	0.3291	0.33293	+1.16%	0.3402	+3.37%	0.0430	✓	-0.14
2026-08-18	oos	0.36445	0.354987	-2.60%	0.3605	-1.08%	0.0013	✓	0.09
2026-08-17	oos	0.36775	0.358391	-2.54%	0.3024	-17.77%	0.1865	✓	0.10
2026-08-16	oos	0.36445	0.353483	-3.01%	0.3036	-16.70%	0.1691	✓	0.09
2026-08-15	oos	0.3723	0.361326	-2.95%	0.2988	-19.74%	0.2085	✓	0.09
2026-08-14	oos	0.3686	0.358056	-2.86%	0.29545	-19.85%	0.2140	✓	0.11
2026-08-13	oos	0.3931	0.380855	-3.11%	0.29705	-24.43%	0.2656	✓	0.09
2026-08-12	oos	0.376	0.365034	-2.92%	0.30415	-19.11%	0.1986	✓	0.08
2026-08-11	oos	0.3729	0.362401	-2.82%	0.2871	-23.01%	0.2482	✓	0.08
2026-08-10	oos	0.36395	0.353875	-2.77%	0.28855	-20.72%	0.2214	✓	0.09
2026-08-09	oos	0.34505	0.337119	-2.30%	0.30395	-11.91%	0.1246	✓	0.11
2026-08-08	oos	0.34625	0.337392	-2.56%	0.2922	-15.61%	0.1656	✓	0.11
2026-08-07	oos	0.3416	0.333348	-2.42%	0.2962	-13.29%	0.1414	✓	0.11
2026-08-06	oos	0.33865	0.330081	-2.53%	0.30035	-11.31%	0.1169	✓	0.10
2026-08-05	oos	0.3583	0.348189	-2.82%	0.2933	-18.14%	0.1923	✓	0.10
2026-08-04	oos	0.34955	0.338831	-3.07%	0.29125	-16.68%	0.1722	✓	0.09
2026-08-03	oos	0.3431	0.331212	-3.46%	0.2859	-16.67%	0.1626	✓	0.08
2026-08-02	oos	0.32795	0.31672	-3.42%	0.2773	-15.44%	0.1477	✓	0.07
2026-08-01	oos	0.3215	0.308757	-3.96%	0.2837	-11.76%	0.0986	✓	0.06
2026-07-31	oos	0.3287	0.315279	-4.08%	0.28175	-14.28%	0.1259	✓	0.06
2026-07-30	oos	0.3309	0.319468	-3.45%	0.2845	-14.02%	0.1279	✓	0.06
2026-07-29	oos	0.32935	0.317665	-3.55%	0.28265	-14.18%	0.1282	✓	0.06
2026-07-28	oos	0.35	0.33773	-3.51%	0.3045	-13.00%	0.1186	✓	0.07
2026-07-27	oos	0.36775	0.35432	-3.65%	0.30725	-16.45%	0.1588	✓	0.08
2026-07-26	oos	0.37585	0.364281	-3.08%	0.3083	-17.97%	0.1779	✓	0.06
2026-07-25	oos	0.37075	0.356966	-3.72%	0.3126	-15.68%	0.1427	✓	0.05
2026-07-24	oos	0.3617	0.348368	-3.69%	0.324	-10.42%	0.0805	✓	0.04
2026-07-23	oos	0.3527	0.341398	-3.20%	0.3344	-5.19%	0.0302	✓	0.06
2026-07-22	oos	0.35555	0.345776	-2.75%	0.34135	-3.99%	0.0221	✓	0.05
2026-07-21	oos	0.36335	0.353572	-2.69%	0.3111	-14.38%	0.1328	✓	0.05
2026-07-20	oos	0.3239	0.311059	-3.96%	0.3291	+1.61%	0.0599	✗	-0.06
2026-07-19	oos	0.31675	0.303993	-4.03%	0.36445	+15.06%	0.1814	✗	-0.07
2026-07-18	oos	0.31925	0.30668	-3.94%	0.36775	+15.19%	0.1812	✗	-0.07
2026-07-17	oos	0.3248	0.312025	-3.93%	0.36445	+12.21%	0.1542	✗	-0.06
2026-07-16	oos	0.33275	0.320653	-3.64%	0.3723	+11.89%	0.1486	✗	-0.06
2026-07-15	oos	0.3329	0.323172	-2.92%	0.3686	+10.72%	0.1300	✗	-0.06
2026-07-14	oos	0.33125	0.322535	-2.63%	0.3931	+18.67%	0.1965	✗	-0.06
2026-07-13	oos	0.32705	0.315902	-3.41%	0.376	+14.97%	0.1760	✗	-0.10
2026-07-12	oos	0.3384	0.331221	-2.12%	0.3729	+10.20%	0.1181	✗	-0.13
2026-07-11	oos	0.3452	0.340455	-1.37%	0.36395	+5.43%	0.0670	✗	-0.13
2026-07-10	oos	0.34765	0.345441	-0.64%	0.34505	-0.75%	0.0003	✓	-0.13
2026-07-09	oos	0.3484	0.344923	-1.00%	0.34625	-0.62%	0.0075	✓	-0.13
2026-07-08	oos	0.35555	0.351063	-1.26%	0.3416	-3.92%	0.0222	✓	-0.12
2026-07-07	oos	0.3748	0.371196	-0.96%	0.33865	-9.65%	0.0895	✓	-0.15
2026-07-06	oos	0.3765	0.374114	-0.63%	0.3583	-4.83%	0.0417	✓	-0.15
2026-07-05	oos	0.38175	0.378716	-0.79%	0.34955	-8.43%	0.0790	✓	-0.15
2026-07-04	oos	0.3877	0.383856	-0.99%	0.3431	-11.50%	0.1114	✓	-0.14
2026-07-03	oos	0.384	0.379458	-1.18%	0.32795	-14.60%	0.1435	✓	-0.16
2026-07-02	oos	0.3888	0.382821	-1.54%	0.3215	-17.31%	0.1715	✓	-0.15
2026-07-01	oos	0.3947	0.386977	-1.96%	0.3287	-16.72%	0.1568	✓	-0.14
2026-06-30	oos	0.3947	0.38523	-2.40%	0.3309	-16.16%	0.1367	✓	-0.15
2026-06-29	oos	0.39385	0.384762	-2.31%	0.32935	-16.38%	0.1465	✓	-0.15
2026-06-28	oos	0.3783	0.36838	-2.62%	0.35	-7.48%	0.0371	✓	-0.20
2026-06-27	oos	0.37735	0.367118	-2.71%	0.36775	-2.54%	0.0138	✓	-0.20
2026-06-26	oos	0.39065	0.380309	-2.65%	0.37585	-3.79%	0.0043	✓	-0.19
2026-06-25	oos	0.3913	0.38059	-2.74%	0.37075	-5.25%	0.0119	✓	-0.19
2026-06-24	oos	0.3809	0.370242	-2.80%	0.3617	-5.04%	0.0151	✓	-0.17
2026-06-23	oos	0.3911	0.381489	-2.46%	0.3527	-9.82%	0.0710	✓	-0.20
2026-06-22	oos	0.39995	0.390919	-2.26%	0.35555	-11.10%	0.0876	✓	-0.22
2026-06-21	oos	0.411	0.401202	-2.38%	0.36335	-11.59%	0.0891	✓	-0.20
2026-06-20	oos	0.4169	0.407127	-2.34%	0.3239	-22.31%	0.2255	✓	-0.21
2026-06-19	oos	0.40235	0.391413	-2.72%	0.31675	-21.28%	0.2068	✓	-0.26
2026-06-18	oos	0.3724	0.359508	-3.46%	0.31925	-14.27%	0.1083	✓	-0.35
2026-06-17	oos	0.415	0.403705	-2.72%	0.3248	-21.73%	0.2217	✓	-0.49
2026-06-16	oos	0.4273	0.41628	-2.58%	0.33275	-22.13%	0.2386	✓	-0.51
2026-06-15	oos	0.4357	0.424895	-2.48%	0.3329	-23.59%	0.2564	✓	-0.52
2026-06-14	oos	0.4935	0.481932	-2.34%	0.33125	-32.88%	0.3793	✓	-0.40
2026-06-13	oos	0.44765	0.435407	-2.73%	0.32705	-26.94%	0.2520	✓	1.00
2026-06-12	oos	0.45495	0.442229	-2.80%	0.3384	-25.62%	0.2708	✓	1.00
2026-06-11	oos	0.4724	0.458312	-2.98%	0.3452	-26.93%	0.2867	✓	1.00
2026-06-10	oos	0.4711	0.455493	-3.31%	0.34765	-26.20%	0.3129	✓	1.00
2026-06-09	oos	0.4527	0.436144	-3.66%	0.3484	-23.04%	0.2485	✓	1.00
2026-06-08	oos	0.4637	0.446292	-3.75%	0.35555	-23.32%	0.2141	✓	1.00
2026-06-07	oos	0.4677	0.44916	-3.96%	0.3748	-19.86%	0.1813	✓	1.00
2026-06-06	oos	0.4055	0.385014	-5.05%	0.3765	-7.15%	0.0729	✓	1.00
2026-06-05	oos	0.4356	0.41498	-4.73%	0.38175	-12.36%	0.1244	✓	1.00
2026-06-04	oos	0.4301	0.407442	-5.27%	0.3877	-9.86%	0.0383	✓	1.00
2026-06-03	oos	0.4796	0.45745	-4.62%	0.384	-19.93%	0.1510	✓	1.00
2026-06-02	oos	0.509	0.48535	-4.65%	0.3888	-23.61%	0.1410	✓	1.00
2026-06-01	oos	0.4463	0.423634	-5.08%	0.3947	-11.56%	0.1027	✗	1.00
2026-05-31	oos	0.4511	0.430402	-4.59%	0.3947	-12.50%	0.1423	✗	1.00
2026-05-30	oos	0.47675	0.457472	-4.04%	0.39385	-17.39%	0.0542	✗	1.00
2026-05-29	oos	0.45355	0.433467	-4.43%	0.3783	-16.59%	0.0738	✗	1.00
2026-05-28	oos	0.62785	0.601408	-4.21%	0.37735	-39.90%	0.2619	✓	1.00
2026-05-27	oos	0.71265	0.678244	-4.83%	0.39065	-45.18%	0.3378	✓	1.00
2026-05-26	oos	0.67035	0.642689	-4.13%	0.3913	-41.63%	0.2571	✓	1.00
2026-05-25	oos	0.6361	0.615874	-3.18%	0.3809	-40.12%	0.2441	✓	1.00
2026-05-24	oos	0.72305	0.690309	-4.53%	0.3911	-45.91%	0.3622	✓	1.00