ERG

Ergo · native · beta_5y

token id: #922
symbol: ERG
variant: –
chain: native
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2024-04-29
predictions: 2,670

Track record at +7d

assessed

393

of 400 predictions shown

direction hit

59.5%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0632

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0135

actual -0.0074

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	live	0.3079	0.301974	-1.92%	–	pending	–	–	1.34
2026-10-21	oos	0.31945	0.31262	-2.14%	–	pending	–	–	1.39
2026-10-20	oos	0.3475	0.337821	-2.79%	–	pending	–	–	1.36
2026-10-19	oos	0.32025	0.312668	-2.37%	–	pending	–	–	1.35
2026-10-18	oos	0.31585	0.30855	-2.31%	–	pending	–	–	1.34
2026-10-17	oos	0.32405	0.315322	-2.69%	–	pending	–	–	1.35
2026-10-16	oos	0.3098	0.301972	-2.53%	–	pending	–	–	1.35
2026-10-15	oos	0.3241	0.314421	-2.99%	0.3079	-5.00%	0.0546	✓	1.33
2026-10-14	oos	0.2956	0.28803	-2.56%	0.31945	+8.07%	0.0853	✗	1.33
2026-10-13	oos	0.311	0.302466	-2.74%	0.3475	+11.74%	0.1414	✗	1.30
2026-10-12	oos	0.3215	0.312134	-2.91%	0.32025	-0.39%	0.0241	✓	1.31
2026-10-11	oos	0.32625	0.316096	-3.11%	0.31585	-3.19%	0.0250	✓	1.28
2026-10-10	oos	0.3262	0.314842	-3.48%	0.32405	-0.66%	0.0529	✗	1.29
2026-10-09	oos	0.2942	0.285173	-3.07%	0.3098	+5.30%	0.0993	✗	1.29
2026-10-08	oos	0.3076	0.297434	-3.31%	0.3241	+5.36%	0.0790	✗	1.30
2026-10-07	oos	0.2978	0.288677	-3.06%	0.2956	-0.74%	0.0512	✗	1.33
2026-10-06	oos	0.32115	0.311105	-3.13%	0.311	-3.16%	0.0368	✗	1.28
2026-10-05	oos	0.3138	0.303516	-3.28%	0.3215	+2.45%	0.1185	✗	1.27
2026-10-04	oos	0.32445	0.313198	-3.47%	0.32625	+0.55%	0.0829	✗	1.26
2026-10-03	oos	0.3062	0.295686	-3.43%	0.3262	+6.53%	0.1255	✗	1.25
2026-10-02	oos	0.3255	0.314222	-3.46%	0.2942	-9.62%	0.0365	✓	1.25
2026-10-01	oos	0.32945	0.318107	-3.44%	0.3076	-6.63%	0.0137	✓	1.25
2026-09-30	oos	0.3314	0.319683	-3.54%	0.2978	-10.14%	0.0667	✓	1.26
2026-09-29	oos	0.3359	0.323438	-3.71%	0.32115	-4.39%	0.0352	✓	1.25
2026-09-28	oos	0.3236	0.311521	-3.73%	0.3138	-3.03%	0.0271	✓	1.27
2026-09-27	oos	0.3311	0.318549	-3.79%	0.32445	-2.01%	0.0125	✓	1.29
2026-09-26	oos	0.3278	0.31566	-3.70%	0.3062	-6.59%	0.0354	✓	1.29
2026-09-25	oos	0.33875	0.325905	-3.79%	0.3255	-3.91%	0.0075	✓	1.29
2026-09-24	oos	0.3396	0.326606	-3.83%	0.32945	-2.99%	0.0016	✓	1.29
2026-09-23	oos	0.3478	0.33355	-4.10%	0.3314	-4.72%	0.0061	✓	1.28
2026-09-22	oos	0.3403	0.326538	-4.04%	0.3359	-1.29%	0.0681	✗	1.32
2026-09-21	oos	0.32345	0.309595	-4.28%	0.3236	+0.05%	0.0926	✗	1.31
2026-09-20	oos	0.2769	0.267248	-3.49%	0.3311	+19.57%	0.1678	✗	1.17
2026-09-19	oos	0.28165	0.271532	-3.59%	0.3278	+16.39%	0.1436	✗	1.16
2026-09-18	oos	0.28615	0.27515	-3.84%	0.33875	+18.38%	0.1628	✗	1.16
2026-09-17	oos	0.2532	0.2462	-2.76%	0.3396	+34.12%	0.2154	✗	1.06
2026-09-16	oos	0.2491	0.242683	-2.58%	0.3478	+39.62%	0.2511	✗	1.06
2026-09-15	oos	0.24205	0.237034	-2.07%	0.3403	+40.59%	0.2226	✗	1.06
2026-09-14	oos	0.2686	0.260828	-2.89%	0.32345	+20.42%	0.1142	✗	0.99
2026-09-13	oos	0.2597	0.253521	-2.38%	0.2769	+6.62%	0.0336	✗	0.99
2026-09-12	oos	0.2606	0.25491	-2.18%	0.28165	+8.08%	0.0500	✗	0.99
2026-09-11	oos	0.2549	0.250794	-1.61%	0.28615	+12.26%	0.0858	✗	0.99
2026-09-10	oos	0.256	0.252351	-1.43%	0.2532	-1.09%	0.0058	✓	0.99
2026-09-09	oos	0.2494	0.247857	-0.62%	0.2491	-0.12%	0.0335	✗	1.03
2026-09-08	oos	0.2522	0.251039	-0.46%	0.24205	-4.02%	0.0023	✓	1.04
2026-09-07	oos	0.2215	0.225557	+1.83%	0.2686	+21.26%	0.1874	✓	1.09
2026-09-06	oos	0.2646	0.264658	+0.02%	0.2597	-1.85%	0.0249	✓	0.97
2026-09-05	oos	0.2593	0.262227	+1.13%	0.2606	+0.50%	0.0255	✓	0.97
2026-09-04	oos	0.2538	0.259765	+2.35%	0.2549	+0.43%	0.0108	✓	0.95
2026-09-03	oos	0.2634	0.27126	+2.98%	0.256	-2.81%	0.0017	✓	0.94
2026-09-02	oos	0.26055	0.267482	+2.66%	0.2494	-4.28%	0.0826	✗	1.01
2026-09-01	oos	0.2516	0.2596	+3.18%	0.2522	+0.24%	0.0426	✗	1.02
2026-08-31	oos	0.2584	0.264834	+2.49%	0.2215	-14.28%	0.1857	✗	1.04
2026-08-30	oos	0.2469	0.251788	+1.98%	0.2646	+7.17%	0.0149	✓	1.03
2026-08-29	oos	0.2507	0.254109	+1.36%	0.2593	+3.43%	0.0002	✓	1.01
2026-08-28	oos	0.2563	0.257786	+0.58%	0.2538	-0.98%	0.0392	✗	1.01
2026-08-27	oos	0.2586	0.260255	+0.64%	0.2634	+1.86%	0.0007	✓	1.04
2026-08-26	oos	0.2625	0.262763	+0.10%	0.26055	-0.74%	0.0145	✓	1.05
2026-08-25	oos	0.2624	0.26218	-0.08%	0.2516	-4.12%	0.0259	✓	1.05
2026-08-24	oos	0.2673	0.266587	-0.27%	0.2584	-3.33%	0.0255	✓	1.07
2026-08-23	oos	0.2667	0.265388	-0.49%	0.2469	-7.42%	0.0713	✓	1.05
2026-08-22	oos	0.2709	0.268513	-0.88%	0.2507	-7.46%	0.0847	✓	1.06
2026-08-21	oos	0.2675	0.264914	-0.97%	0.2563	-4.19%	0.0264	✓	1.07
2026-08-20	oos	0.2429	0.239249	-1.50%	0.2586	+6.46%	0.0188	✓	1.02
2026-08-19	oos	0.2155	0.213297	-1.02%	0.2625	+21.81%	0.0916	✗	0.88
2026-08-18	oos	0.2014	0.19829	-1.54%	0.2624	+30.29%	0.1134	✗	0.86
2026-08-17	oos	0.2026	0.199431	-1.56%	0.2673	+31.93%	0.1184	✗	0.86
2026-08-16	oos	0.2051	0.201447	-1.78%	0.2667	+30.03%	0.0908	✗	0.89
2026-08-15	oos	0.2025	0.19921	-1.62%	0.2709	+33.78%	0.1282	✗	0.89
2026-08-14	oos	0.207	0.20364	-1.62%	0.2675	+29.23%	0.0773	✗	0.90
2026-08-13	oos	0.209	0.205814	-1.52%	0.2429	+16.22%	0.0377	✗	0.91
2026-08-12	oos	0.2159	0.212503	-1.57%	0.2155	-0.19%	0.0659	✓	0.90
2026-08-11	oos	0.2216	0.218091	-1.58%	0.2014	-9.12%	0.0955	✓	0.88
2026-08-10	oos	0.2382	0.233641	-1.91%	0.2026	-14.95%	0.1503	✓	0.87
2026-08-09	oos	0.2358	0.231575	-1.79%	0.2051	-13.02%	0.0932	✓	0.89
2026-08-08	oos	0.2388	0.234243	-1.91%	0.2025	-15.20%	0.1193	✓	0.89
2026-08-07	oos	0.2356	0.231154	-1.89%	0.207	-12.14%	0.0838	✓	0.89
2026-08-06	oos	0.2341	0.229331	-2.04%	0.209	-10.72%	0.0812	✓	0.88
2026-08-05	oos	0.2253	0.221217	-1.81%	0.2159	-4.17%	0.0078	✓	0.89
2026-08-04	oos	0.222	0.217884	-1.85%	0.2216	-0.18%	0.0242	✗	0.89
2026-08-03	oos	0.2162	0.212271	-1.82%	0.2382	+10.18%	0.1091	✗	0.88
2026-08-02	oos	0.2141	0.210152	-1.84%	0.2358	+10.14%	0.0962	✗	0.90
2026-08-01	oos	0.202	0.198871	-1.55%	0.2388	+18.22%	0.1536	✗	0.88
2026-07-31	oos	0.2046	0.201417	-1.56%	0.2356	+15.15%	0.1284	✗	0.88
2026-07-30	oos	0.2073	0.204483	-1.36%	0.2341	+12.93%	0.1415	✗	0.89
2026-07-29	oos	0.2084	0.205339	-1.47%	0.2253	+8.11%	0.0829	✗	0.89
2026-07-28	oos	0.2074	0.204508	-1.39%	0.222	+7.04%	0.0792	✗	0.89
2026-07-27	oos	0.2007	0.198501	-1.10%	0.2162	+7.72%	0.0886	✗	0.89
2026-07-26	oos	0.2085	0.206607	-0.91%	0.2141	+2.69%	0.0606	✗	0.87
2026-07-25	oos	0.2153	0.213017	-1.06%	0.202	-6.18%	0.0313	✓	0.90
2026-07-24	oos	0.2163	0.214153	-0.99%	0.2046	-5.41%	0.0279	✓	0.89
2026-07-23	oos	0.2203	0.218322	-0.90%	0.2073	-5.90%	0.0473	✓	0.89
2026-07-22	oos	0.2181	0.216701	-0.64%	0.2084	-4.45%	0.0086	✓	0.90
2026-07-21	oos	0.2235	0.221935	-0.70%	0.2074	-7.20%	0.0309	✓	0.90
2026-07-20	oos	0.2198	0.218172	-0.74%	0.2007	-8.69%	0.0624	✓	0.89
2026-07-19	oos	0.2206	0.21883	-0.80%	0.2085	-5.49%	0.0574	✓	0.89
2026-07-18	oos	0.2211	0.219337	-0.80%	0.2153	-2.62%	0.0119	✓	0.86
2026-07-17	oos	0.2211	0.219114	-0.90%	0.2163	-2.17%	0.0155	✓	0.86
2026-07-16	oos	0.22	0.218052	-0.89%	0.2203	+0.14%	0.0069	✓	0.86
2026-07-15	oos	0.22	0.218214	-0.81%	0.2181	-0.86%	0.0188	✓	0.87
2026-07-14	oos	0.2129	0.211593	-0.61%	0.2235	+4.98%	0.0343	✗	0.88
2026-07-13	oos	0.2103	0.208721	-0.75%	0.2198	+4.52%	0.0092	✗	0.92
2026-07-12	oos	0.2215	0.219681	-0.82%	0.2206	-0.41%	0.0090	✓	0.90
2026-07-11	oos	0.2202	0.218473	-0.78%	0.2211	+0.41%	0.0017	✓	0.86
2026-07-10	oos	0.2189	0.217347	-0.71%	0.2211	+1.01%	0.0203	✗	0.87
2026-07-09	oos	0.2182	0.216572	-0.75%	0.22	+0.82%	0.0074	✓	0.88
2026-07-08	oos	0.2216	0.219654	-0.88%	0.22	-0.72%	0.0335	✓	0.90
2026-07-07	oos	0.2215	0.219717	-0.80%	0.2129	-3.88%	0.0550	✓	0.90
2026-07-06	oos	0.2231	0.221221	-0.84%	0.2103	-5.74%	0.0259	✓	0.90
2026-07-05	oos	0.2159	0.214322	-0.73%	0.2215	+2.59%	0.0309	✗	0.84
2026-07-04	oos	0.2129	0.211348	-0.73%	0.2202	+3.43%	0.0319	✗	0.84
2026-07-03	oos	0.2128	0.211058	-0.82%	0.2189	+2.87%	0.0154	✗	0.83
2026-07-02	oos	0.2079	0.206143	-0.85%	0.2182	+4.95%	0.0344	✗	0.83
2026-07-01	oos	0.2034	0.201519	-0.92%	0.2216	+8.95%	0.0643	✗	0.82
2026-06-30	oos	0.1904	0.189018	-0.73%	0.2215	+16.33%	0.0964	✗	0.79
2026-06-29	oos	0.2025	0.200864	-0.81%	0.2231	+10.17%	0.0580	✗	0.76
2026-06-28	oos	0.2027	0.200961	-0.86%	0.2159	+6.51%	0.0207	✗	0.76
2026-06-27	oos	0.2048	0.203075	-0.84%	0.2129	+3.96%	0.0080	✓	0.77
2026-06-26	oos	0.2051	0.203434	-0.81%	0.2128	+3.75%	0.0134	✗	0.77
2026-06-25	oos	0.2124	0.21038	-0.95%	0.2079	-2.12%	0.0347	✓	0.78
2026-06-24	oos	0.2201	0.217822	-1.03%	0.2034	-7.59%	0.0558	✓	0.75
2026-06-23	oos	0.2215	0.219273	-1.01%	0.1904	-14.04%	0.0903	✓	0.75
2026-06-22	oos	0.221	0.218923	-0.94%	0.2025	-8.37%	0.0316	✓	0.76
2026-06-21	oos	0.2177	0.215669	-0.93%	0.2027	-6.89%	0.0156	✓	0.76
2026-06-20	oos	0.2176	0.215625	-0.91%	0.2048	-5.88%	0.0018	✓	0.77
2026-06-19	oos	0.2143	0.21243	-0.87%	0.2051	-4.29%	0.0080	✓	0.77
2026-06-18	oos	0.2135	0.211675	-0.85%	0.2124	-0.52%	0.0426	✗	0.76
2026-06-17	oos	0.2198	0.217774	-0.92%	0.2201	+0.14%	0.0516	✗	0.74
2026-06-16	oos	0.2256	0.223333	-1.00%	0.2215	-1.82%	0.0267	✗	0.75
2026-06-15	oos	0.2333	0.230415	-1.24%	0.221	-5.27%	0.0145	✓	0.76
2026-06-14	oos	0.2264	0.223737	-1.18%	0.2177	-3.84%	0.0016	✓	0.76
2026-06-13	oos	0.2221	0.219487	-1.18%	0.2176	-2.03%	0.0062	✓	0.76
2026-06-12	oos	0.2221	0.219242	-1.29%	0.2143	-3.51%	0.0220	✓	0.77
2026-06-11	oos	0.2206	0.217595	-1.36%	0.2135	-3.22%	0.0107	✓	0.77
2026-06-10	oos	0.2103	0.207859	-1.16%	0.2198	+4.52%	0.0201	✗	0.75
2026-06-09	oos	0.2162	0.213296	-1.34%	0.2256	+4.35%	0.0099	✓	0.75
2026-06-08	oos	0.2124	0.20967	-1.29%	0.2333	+9.84%	0.0687	✗	0.77
2026-06-07	oos	0.2127	0.209964	-1.29%	0.2264	+6.44%	0.0470	✗	0.76
2026-06-06	oos	0.2096	0.20737	-1.06%	0.2221	+5.96%	0.0258	✗	0.75
2026-06-05	oos	0.2146	0.212277	-1.08%	0.2221	+3.49%	0.0156	✗	0.74
2026-06-04	oos	0.2273	0.224183	-1.37%	0.2206	-2.95%	0.0134	✓	0.71
2026-06-03	oos	0.2368	0.233307	-1.47%	0.2103	-11.19%	0.0768	✓	0.65
2026-06-02	oos	0.2532	0.248777	-1.75%	0.2162	-14.61%	0.0924	✓	0.62
2026-06-01	oos	0.2713	0.266028	-1.94%	0.2124	-21.71%	0.1672	✓	0.47
2026-05-31	oos	0.2757	0.270314	-1.95%	0.2127	-22.85%	0.1682	✓	0.48
2026-05-30	oos	0.2721	0.266833	-1.94%	0.2096	-22.97%	0.1595	✓	0.43
2026-05-29	oos	0.2634	0.258528	-1.85%	0.2146	-18.53%	0.1070	✓	0.43
2026-05-28	oos	0.2594	0.255005	-1.69%	0.2273	-12.37%	0.0526	✓	0.44
2026-05-27	oos	0.2701	0.265349	-1.76%	0.2368	-12.33%	0.0489	✓	0.44
2026-05-26	oos	0.2839	0.278326	-1.96%	0.2532	-10.81%	0.0410	✓	0.42
2026-05-25	oos	0.2783	0.273294	-1.80%	0.2713	-2.52%	0.0394	✗	0.58
2026-05-24	oos	0.2851	0.279434	-1.99%	0.2757	-3.30%	0.0122	✓	0.57
2026-05-23	oos	0.2851	0.279258	-2.05%	0.2721	-4.56%	0.0058	✓	0.53
2026-05-22	oos	0.2834	0.277589	-2.05%	0.2634	-7.06%	0.0376	✓	0.53
2026-05-21	oos	0.2818	0.276307	-1.95%	0.2594	-7.95%	0.0340	✓	0.55
2026-05-20	oos	0.2889	0.282828	-2.10%	0.2701	-6.51%	0.0237	✓	0.54
2026-05-19	oos	0.2876	0.281444	-2.14%	0.2839	-1.29%	0.0153	✓	0.53
2026-05-18	oos	0.285	0.279159	-2.05%	0.2783	-2.35%	0.0052	✓	0.54
2026-05-17	oos	0.2835	0.277997	-1.94%	0.2851	+0.56%	0.0282	✗	0.53
2026-05-16	oos	0.2893	0.283806	-1.90%	0.2851	-1.45%	0.0146	✓	0.53
2026-05-15	oos	0.3044	0.298219	-2.03%	0.2834	-6.90%	0.0248	✓	0.56
2026-05-14	oos	0.3073	0.301768	-1.80%	0.2818	-8.30%	0.0432	✓	0.57
2026-05-13	oos	0.3072	0.301067	-2.00%	0.2889	-5.96%	0.0280	✓	0.57
2026-05-12	oos	0.3097	0.303903	-1.87%	0.2876	-7.14%	0.0281	✓	0.57
2026-05-11	oos	0.322	0.315839	-1.91%	0.285	-11.49%	0.0676	✓	0.58
2026-05-10	oos	0.312	0.306705	-1.70%	0.2835	-9.13%	0.0433	✓	0.59
2026-05-09	oos	0.3089	0.30312	-1.87%	0.2893	-6.35%	0.0277	✓	0.59
2026-05-08	oos	0.3094	0.30354	-1.89%	0.3044	-1.62%	0.0111	✓	0.58
2026-05-07	oos	0.3081	0.302481	-1.82%	0.3073	-0.26%	0.0080	✓	0.58
2026-05-06	oos	0.3159	0.310355	-1.76%	0.3072	-2.75%	0.0091	✓	0.72
2026-05-05	oos	0.3184	0.312388	-1.89%	0.3097	-2.73%	0.0057	✓	0.55
2026-05-04	oos	0.3008	0.296268	-1.51%	0.322	+7.05%	0.0709	✗	0.54
2026-05-03	oos	0.2986	0.294613	-1.34%	0.312	+4.49%	0.0340	✗	0.51
2026-05-02	oos	0.3012	0.297812	-1.12%	0.3089	+2.56%	0.0237	✗	0.52
2026-05-01	oos	0.3025	0.299758	-0.91%	0.3094	+2.28%	0.0186	✗	0.53
2026-04-30	oos	0.2967	0.294726	-0.67%	0.3081	+3.84%	0.0181	✗	0.55
2026-04-29	oos	0.297	0.295673	-0.45%	0.3159	+6.36%	0.0259	✗	0.56
2026-04-28	oos	0.3045	0.303636	-0.28%	0.3184	+4.56%	0.0149	✗	0.56
2026-04-27	oos	0.3048	0.305399	+0.20%	0.3008	-1.31%	0.0329	✗	0.56
2026-04-26	oos	0.3118	0.313266	+0.47%	0.2986	-4.23%	0.0471	✗	0.56
2026-04-25	oos	0.317	0.317225	+0.07%	0.3012	-4.98%	0.0592	✗	0.56
2026-04-24	oos	0.3129	0.313544	+0.21%	0.3025	-3.32%	0.0414	✗	0.56
2026-04-23	oos	0.3148	0.315983	+0.38%	0.2967	-5.75%	0.0487	✗	0.56
2026-04-22	oos	0.3196	0.320064	+0.15%	0.297	-7.07%	0.0570	✗	0.56
2026-04-21	oos	0.3156	0.31462	-0.31%	0.3045	-3.52%	0.0325	✓	0.56
2026-04-20	oos	0.3163	0.314669	-0.52%	0.3048	-3.64%	0.0428	✓	0.56
2026-04-19	oos	0.3194	0.316045	-1.05%	0.3118	-2.38%	0.0503	✓	0.58
2026-04-18	oos	0.3251	0.322432	-0.82%	0.317	-2.49%	0.0314	✓	0.58
2026-04-17	oos	0.3307	0.32834	-0.71%	0.3129	-5.38%	0.0509	✓	0.58
2026-04-16	oos	0.3227	0.319574	-0.97%	0.3148	-2.45%	0.0385	✓	0.58
2026-04-15	oos	0.3162	0.313149	-0.96%	0.3196	+1.08%	0.0049	✓	0.57
2026-04-14	oos	0.3113	0.307871	-1.10%	0.3156	+1.38%	0.0082	✓	0.58
2026-04-13	oos	0.3071	0.303768	-1.08%	0.3163	+3.00%	0.0291	✗	0.60
2026-04-12	oos	0.3009	0.296486	-1.47%	0.3194	+6.15%	0.0489	✗	0.60
2026-04-11	oos	0.3148	0.310037	-1.51%	0.3251	+3.27%	0.0263	✗	0.59
2026-04-10	oos	0.3055	0.301053	-1.46%	0.3307	+8.25%	0.0616	✗	0.59
2026-04-09	oos	0.2999	0.295335	-1.52%	0.3227	+7.60%	0.0616	✗	0.59
2026-04-08	oos	0.3008	0.295939	-1.62%	0.3162	+5.12%	0.0359	✗	0.59
2026-04-07	oos	0.2992	0.294507	-1.57%	0.3113	+4.04%	0.0371	✗	0.59
2026-04-06	oos	0.2993	0.293967	-1.78%	0.3071	+2.61%	0.0041	✓	0.61
2026-04-05	oos	0.2963	0.291053	-1.77%	0.3009	+1.55%	0.0179	✗	0.61
2026-04-04	oos	0.2965	0.291002	-1.85%	0.3148	+6.17%	0.0276	✗	0.62
2026-04-03	oos	0.2858	0.281154	-1.63%	0.3055	+6.89%	0.0299	✗	0.62
2026-04-02	oos	0.2881	0.283417	-1.63%	0.2999	+4.10%	0.0131	✓	0.61
2026-04-01	oos	0.2941	0.289029	-1.72%	0.3008	+2.28%	0.0136	✓	0.62
2026-03-31	oos	0.2794	0.275474	-1.41%	0.2992	+7.09%	0.0499	✗	0.62
2026-03-30	oos	0.2749	0.27121	-1.34%	0.2993	+8.88%	0.0791	✗	0.62
2026-03-29	oos	0.2709	0.267633	-1.21%	0.2963	+9.38%	0.0734	✗	0.63
2026-03-28	oos	0.2802	0.276789	-1.22%	0.2965	+5.82%	0.0597	✗	0.63
2026-03-27	oos	0.2859	0.282391	-1.23%	0.2858	-0.03%	0.0062	✓	0.63
2026-03-26	oos	0.2899	0.287185	-0.94%	0.2881	-0.62%	0.0208	✗	0.64
2026-03-25	oos	0.2946	0.292957	-0.56%	0.2941	-0.17%	0.0332	✗	0.64
2026-03-24	oos	0.2932	0.291463	-0.59%	0.2794	-4.71%	0.0209	✓	0.64
2026-03-23	oos	0.2964	0.294777	-0.55%	0.2749	-7.25%	0.0312	✓	0.64
2026-03-22	oos	0.2855	0.283262	-0.78%	0.2709	-5.11%	0.0266	✓	0.64
2026-03-21	oos	0.2883	0.28669	-0.56%	0.2802	-2.81%	0.0016	✓	0.64
2026-03-20	oos	0.2895	0.288909	-0.20%	0.2859	-1.24%	0.0282	✗	0.64
2026-03-19	oos	0.2995	0.298623	-0.29%	0.2899	-3.21%	0.0190	✓	0.64
2026-03-18	oos	0.3148	0.314078	-0.23%	0.2946	-6.42%	0.0645	✓	0.66
2026-03-17	oos	0.3292	0.328856	-0.10%	0.2932	-10.94%	0.0840	✓	0.65
2026-03-16	oos	0.3351	0.334694	-0.12%	0.2964	-11.55%	0.0859	✓	0.65
2026-03-15	oos	0.3261	0.325384	-0.22%	0.2855	-12.45%	0.0852	✓	0.64
2026-03-14	oos	0.3161	0.315353	-0.24%	0.2883	-8.79%	0.0683	✓	0.65
2026-03-13	oos	0.3232	0.322042	-0.36%	0.2895	-10.43%	0.1025	✓	0.64
2026-03-12	oos	0.3165	0.315563	-0.30%	0.2995	-5.37%	0.0466	✓	0.64
2026-03-11	oos	0.3187	0.317618	-0.34%	0.3148	-1.22%	0.0184	✓	0.64
2026-03-10	oos	0.3219	0.320609	-0.40%	0.3292	+2.27%	0.0089	✓	0.64
2026-03-09	oos	0.3212	0.319487	-0.53%	0.3351	+4.33%	0.0103	✓	0.64
2026-03-08	oos	0.3212	0.318703	-0.78%	0.3261	+1.53%	0.0412	✓	0.65
2026-03-07	oos	0.3189	0.316973	-0.60%	0.3161	-0.88%	0.0401	✓	0.65
2026-03-06	oos	0.3199	0.318222	-0.52%	0.3232	+1.03%	0.0112	✓	0.65
2026-03-05	oos	0.3148	0.31409	-0.23%	0.3165	+0.54%	0.0111	✗	0.68
2026-03-04	oos	0.3237	0.323035	-0.21%	0.3187	-1.54%	0.0097	✗	0.67
2026-03-03	oos	0.3307	0.329056	-0.50%	0.3219	-2.66%	0.0390	✓	0.72
2026-03-02	oos	0.3376	0.335787	-0.54%	0.3212	-4.86%	0.0403	✓	0.71
2026-03-01	oos	0.3457	0.342714	-0.86%	0.3212	-7.09%	0.0672	✓	0.77
2026-02-28	oos	0.3555	0.352063	-0.97%	0.3189	-10.30%	0.1024	✓	0.79
2026-02-27	oos	0.3473	0.343894	-0.98%	0.3199	-7.89%	0.0987	✓	0.78
2026-02-26	oos	0.3555	0.351685	-1.07%	0.3148	-11.45%	0.1492	✓	0.78
2026-02-25	oos	0.3599	0.354937	-1.38%	0.3237	-10.06%	0.1443	✓	0.78
2026-02-24	oos	0.3165	0.312825	-1.16%	0.3307	+4.49%	0.0102	✓	0.70
2026-02-23	oos	0.2971	0.294596	-0.84%	0.3376	+13.63%	0.0926	✗	0.69
2026-02-22	oos	0.2942	0.292605	-0.54%	0.3457	+17.51%	0.1866	✗	0.71
2026-02-21	oos	0.3041	0.302263	-0.60%	0.3555	+16.90%	0.1726	✗	0.71
2026-02-20	oos	0.3051	0.303366	-0.57%	0.3473	+13.83%	0.1593	✗	0.76
2026-02-19	oos	0.3108	0.308825	-0.64%	0.3555	+14.38%	0.1349	✗	0.76
2026-02-18	oos	0.3208	0.318436	-0.74%	0.3599	+12.19%	0.1046	✗	0.76
2026-02-17	oos	0.3293	0.326781	-0.77%	0.3165	-3.89%	0.0074	✓	0.76
2026-02-16	oos	0.3295	0.32732	-0.66%	0.2971	-9.83%	0.0477	✓	0.78
2026-02-15	oos	0.3322	0.330188	-0.61%	0.2942	-11.44%	0.1020	✓	0.78
2026-02-14	oos	0.3748	0.370396	-1.18%	0.3041	-18.86%	0.1769	✓	0.76
2026-02-13	oos	0.3708	0.366342	-1.20%	0.3051	-17.72%	0.1737	✓	0.76
2026-02-12	oos	0.3621	0.357961	-1.14%	0.3108	-14.17%	0.1501	✓	0.77
2026-02-11	oos	0.3606	0.35678	-1.06%	0.3208	-11.04%	0.0991	✓	0.79
2026-02-10	oos	0.3798	0.374727	-1.34%	0.3293	-13.30%	0.1137	✓	0.79
2026-02-09	oos	0.3844	0.378986	-1.41%	0.3295	-14.28%	0.1257	✓	0.80
2026-02-08	oos	0.3955	0.388913	-1.67%	0.3322	-16.01%	0.1407	✓	0.79
2026-02-07	oos	0.401	0.393311	-1.92%	0.3748	-6.53%	0.0544	✓	0.79
2026-02-06	oos	0.4073	0.397638	-2.37%	0.3708	-8.96%	0.0506	✓	0.78
2026-02-05	oos	0.3562	0.352173	-1.13%	0.3621	+1.66%	0.0091	✓	0.70
2026-02-04	oos	0.3647	0.358432	-1.72%	0.3606	-1.12%	0.0919	✗	1.01
2026-02-03	oos	0.3649	0.35834	-1.80%	0.3798	+4.08%	0.1574	✗	1.04
2026-02-02	oos	0.3573	0.351372	-1.66%	0.3844	+7.58%	0.2238	✗	1.16
2026-02-01	oos	0.3458	0.341297	-1.30%	0.3955	+14.37%	0.2442	✗	1.08
2026-01-31	oos	0.3625	0.357541	-1.37%	0.401	+10.62%	0.2546	✗	1.10
2026-01-30	oos	0.3901	0.384222	-1.51%	0.4073	+4.41%	0.2513	✗	1.10
2026-01-29	oos	0.4085	0.401899	-1.62%	0.3562	-12.80%	0.2044	✗	1.09
2026-01-28	oos	0.424	0.417144	-1.62%	0.3647	-13.99%	0.0894	✗	1.12
2026-01-27	oos	0.4317	0.424383	-1.69%	0.3649	-15.47%	0.0291	✗	1.10
2026-01-26	oos	0.426	0.419077	-1.63%	0.3573	-16.13%	0.0359	✓	1.07
2026-01-25	oos	0.4285	0.42124	-1.69%	0.3458	-19.30%	0.0654	✓	1.11
2026-01-24	oos	0.4337	0.426647	-1.63%	0.3625	-16.42%	0.0219	✓	1.13
2026-01-23	oos	0.4331	0.426317	-1.57%	0.3901	-9.93%	0.0158	✓	1.18
2026-01-22	oos	0.4377	0.430958	-1.54%	0.4085	-6.67%	0.0135	✓	1.18
2026-01-21	oos	0.449	0.441229	-1.73%	0.424	-5.57%	0.0372	✓	1.19
2026-01-20	oos	0.4326	0.425831	-1.56%	0.4317	-0.21%	0.0027	✓	1.21
2026-01-19	oos	0.4542	0.447952	-1.38%	0.426	-6.21%	0.0082	✓	1.23
2026-01-18	oos	0.4629	0.457221	-1.23%	0.4285	-7.43%	0.0323	✗	1.24
2026-01-17	oos	0.474	0.469343	-0.98%	0.4337	-8.50%	0.0009	✓	1.22
2026-01-16	oos	0.4795	0.475548	-0.82%	0.4331	-9.68%	0.0122	✓	1.25
2026-01-15	oos	0.4907	0.486476	-0.86%	0.4377	-10.80%	0.0230	✓	1.25
2026-01-14	oos	0.5107	0.505691	-0.98%	0.449	-12.08%	0.0178	✓	1.24
2026-01-13	oos	0.4585	0.456182	-0.51%	0.4326	-5.65%	0.0399	✗	1.21
2026-01-12	oos	0.4475	0.442611	-1.09%	0.4542	+1.50%	0.0072	✓	1.25
2026-01-11	oos	0.4526	0.447449	-1.14%	0.4629	+2.28%	0.0036	✓	1.25
2026-01-10	oos	0.454	0.448646	-1.18%	0.474	+4.41%	0.0091	✓	1.25
2026-01-09	oos	0.4606	0.45498	-1.22%	0.4795	+4.10%	0.0201	✓	1.35
2026-01-08	oos	0.4526	0.447929	-1.03%	0.4907	+8.42%	0.0267	✗	1.32
2026-01-07	oos	0.4587	0.454217	-0.98%	0.5107	+11.34%	0.0323	✗	1.41
2026-01-06	oos	0.4844	0.479751	-0.96%	0.4585	-5.35%	0.0700	✓	1.40
2026-01-05	oos	0.4995	0.494017	-1.10%	0.4475	-10.41%	0.0583	✓	1.40
2026-01-04	oos	0.4915	0.485865	-1.15%	0.4526	-7.91%	0.0613	✓	1.42
2026-01-03	oos	0.4866	0.481073	-1.14%	0.454	-6.70%	0.0544	✓	1.42
2026-01-02	oos	0.4923	0.486204	-1.24%	0.4606	-6.44%	0.0629	✓	1.42
2026-01-01	oos	0.4832	0.477355	-1.21%	0.4526	-6.33%	0.0894	✓	1.42
2025-12-31	oos	0.4664	0.461616	-1.03%	0.4587	-1.65%	0.0655	✓	1.40
2025-12-30	oos	0.4959	0.489486	-1.29%	0.4844	-2.32%	0.0918	✓	1.39
2025-12-29	oos	0.476	0.47028	-1.20%	0.4995	+4.94%	0.0433	✓	1.39
2025-12-28	oos	0.4782	0.471678	-1.36%	0.4915	+2.78%	0.0148	✓	1.39
2025-12-27	oos	0.4315	0.427483	-0.93%	0.4866	+12.77%	0.0872	✗	1.35
2025-12-26	oos	0.4283	0.424464	-0.90%	0.4923	+14.94%	0.1077	✗	1.35
2025-12-25	oos	0.4313	0.427549	-0.87%	0.4832	+12.03%	0.0983	✗	1.35
2025-12-24	oos	0.4427	0.438662	-0.91%	0.4664	+5.35%	0.0630	✗	1.35
2025-12-23	oos	0.4458	0.441865	-0.88%	0.4959	+11.24%	0.1005	✗	1.35
2025-12-22	oos	0.4655	0.461222	-0.92%	0.476	+2.26%	0.0538	✗	1.35
2025-12-21	oos	0.476	0.471422	-0.96%	0.4782	+0.46%	0.0260	✗	1.35
2025-12-20	oos	0.496	0.489812	-1.25%	0.4315	-13.00%	0.1187	✓	1.37
2025-12-19	oos	0.4871	0.48081	-1.29%	0.4283	-12.07%	0.1032	✓	1.37
2025-12-18	oos	0.4528	0.447633	-1.14%	0.4313	-4.75%	0.0638	✓	1.34
2025-12-17	oos	0.4629	0.457356	-1.20%	0.4427	-4.36%	0.0541	✓	1.34
2025-12-16	oos	0.4552	0.450614	-1.01%	0.4458	-2.07%	0.0041	✓	1.36
2025-12-15	oos	0.4505	0.44607	-0.98%	0.4655	+3.33%	0.0092	✓	1.37
2025-12-14	oos	0.4757	0.470821	-1.03%	0.476	+0.06%	0.0038	✓	1.35
2025-12-13	oos	0.4768	0.472678	-0.86%	0.496	+4.03%	0.0775	✗	1.36
2025-12-12	oos	0.4816	0.477578	-0.84%	0.4871	+1.14%	0.0530	✗	1.36
2025-12-11	oos	0.4952	0.491396	-0.77%	0.4528	-8.56%	0.0267	✗	1.36
2025-12-10	oos	0.5148	0.510067	-0.92%	0.4629	-10.08%	0.0074	✓	1.37
2025-12-09	oos	0.5209	0.516139	-0.91%	0.4552	-12.61%	0.0523	✓	1.37
2025-12-08	oos	0.5243	0.518904	-1.03%	0.4505	-14.08%	0.0754	✓	1.38
2025-12-07	oos	0.5344	0.528174	-1.16%	0.4757	-10.98%	0.0702	✓	1.38
2025-12-06	oos	0.5254	0.519218	-1.18%	0.4768	-9.25%	0.1004	✓	1.38
2025-12-05	oos	0.5042	0.499427	-0.95%	0.4816	-4.48%	0.0507	✓	1.38
2025-12-04	oos	0.51	0.505803	-0.82%	0.4952	-2.90%	0.0280	✓	1.41
2025-12-03	oos	0.5193	0.515126	-0.80%	0.5148	-0.87%	0.0209	✗	1.41
2025-12-02	oos	0.5385	0.532733	-1.07%	0.5209	-3.27%	0.0442	✓	1.45
2025-12-01	oos	0.5006	0.496364	-0.85%	0.5243	+4.73%	0.0172	✓	1.46
2025-11-30	oos	0.5414	0.536129	-0.97%	0.5344	-1.29%	0.0038	✓	1.45
2025-11-29	oos	0.5481	0.542841	-0.96%	0.5254	-4.14%	0.0077	✓	1.44
2025-11-28	oos	0.5844	0.576974	-1.27%	0.5042	-13.72%	0.1099	✓	1.44
2025-11-27	oos	0.6029	0.593979	-1.48%	0.51	-15.41%	0.1646	✓	1.44
2025-11-26	oos	0.6179	0.606945	-1.77%	0.5193	-15.96%	0.2024	✓	1.43
2025-11-25	oos	0.6249	0.611251	-2.18%	0.5385	-13.83%	0.1929	✓	1.48
2025-11-24	oos	0.6041	0.591627	-2.06%	0.5006	-17.13%	0.1331	✓	1.49
2025-11-23	oos	0.62	0.601286	-3.02%	0.5414	-12.68%	0.1659	✓	1.52
2025-11-22	oos	0.5308	0.518801	-2.26%	0.5481	+3.26%	0.0468	✓	1.45
2025-11-21	oos	0.4518	0.446833	-1.10%	0.5844	+29.35%	0.1726	✗	1.44
2025-11-20	oos	0.4514	0.446825	-1.01%	0.6029	+33.56%	0.2210	✗	1.46
2025-11-19	oos	0.4723	0.466805	-1.16%	0.6179	+30.83%	0.2972	✗	1.54
2025-11-18	oos	0.5104	0.502668	-1.51%	0.6249	+22.43%	0.3124	✗	1.53
2025-11-17	oos	0.501	0.494093	-1.38%	0.6041	+20.58%	0.2659	✗	1.52
2025-11-16	oos	0.514	0.506969	-1.37%	0.62	+20.62%	0.3279	✗	1.55
2025-11-15	oos	0.5203	0.513705	-1.27%	0.5308	+2.02%	0.2203	✗	1.55
2025-11-14	oos	0.5215	0.515097	-1.23%	0.4518	-13.37%	0.0330	✗	1.56
2025-11-13	oos	0.5679	0.560511	-1.30%	0.4514	-20.51%	0.0032	✓	1.56
2025-11-12	oos	0.597	0.58877	-1.38%	0.4723	-20.89%	0.0566	✓	1.55
2025-11-11	oos	0.6214	0.612115	-1.49%	0.5104	-17.86%	0.0221	✓	1.55
2025-11-10	oos	0.6228	0.614272	-1.37%	0.501	-19.56%	0.0186	✗	1.58
2025-11-09	oos	0.6417	0.631412	-1.60%	0.514	-19.90%	0.0361	✓	1.60
2025-11-08	oos	0.6406	0.629334	-1.76%	0.5203	-18.78%	0.0792	✓	1.63
2025-11-07	oos	0.6439	0.631769	-1.88%	0.5215	-19.01%	0.0468	✓	1.63
2025-11-06	oos	0.6153	0.604252	-1.80%	0.5679	-7.70%	0.0350	✓	1.62
2025-11-05	oos	0.6439	0.629697	-2.21%	0.597	-7.28%	0.0183	✓	1.61
2025-11-04	oos	0.5716	0.561888	-1.70%	0.6214	+8.71%	0.0775	✗	1.53
2025-11-03	oos	0.5617	0.554096	-1.35%	0.6228	+10.88%	0.1261	✗	1.70
2025-11-02	oos	0.6098	0.600974	-1.45%	0.6417	+5.23%	0.1572	✗	1.69
2025-11-01	oos	0.6287	0.618892	-1.56%	0.6406	+1.89%	0.1590	✗	1.70
2025-10-31	oos	0.6247	0.615092	-1.54%	0.6439	+3.07%	0.1462	✗	1.70
2025-10-30	oos	0.6303	0.618995	-1.79%	0.6153	-2.38%	0.1088	✗	1.71
2025-10-29	oos	0.609	0.599573	-1.55%	0.6439	+5.73%	0.1725	✗	1.75
2025-10-28	oos	0.603	0.595622	-1.22%	0.5716	-5.21%	0.1478	✗	1.77
2025-10-27	oos	0.69	0.679291	-1.55%	0.5617	-18.59%	0.0720	✓	1.73
2025-10-26	oos	0.7419	0.726415	-2.09%	0.6098	-17.81%	0.1136	✓	1.72
2025-10-25	oos	0.6788	0.66648	-1.82%	0.6287	-7.38%	0.0339	✓	1.68
2025-10-24	oos	0.6829	0.670294	-1.85%	0.6247	-8.52%	0.0480	✓	1.67
2025-10-23	oos	0.6635	0.651292	-1.84%	0.6303	-5.00%	0.0052	✓	1.66
2025-10-22	oos	0.6152	0.604589	-1.72%	0.609	-1.01%	0.0291	✓	1.62
2025-10-21	oos	0.6325	0.62194	-1.67%	0.603	-4.66%	0.0973	✓	1.62
2025-10-20	oos	0.6661	0.653768	-1.85%	0.69	+3.59%	0.0026	✓	1.64
2025-10-19	oos	0.6731	0.658493	-2.17%	0.7419	+10.22%	0.0332	✗	1.64
2025-10-18	oos	0.6227	0.610995	-1.88%	0.6788	+9.01%	0.0401	✗	1.60
2025-10-17	oos	0.6126	0.60174	-1.77%	0.6829	+11.48%	0.0595	✗	1.59
2025-10-16	oos	0.6252	0.614695	-1.68%	0.6635	+6.13%	0.0483	✗	1.60
2025-10-15	oos	0.6547	0.643234	-1.75%	0.6152	-6.03%	0.0018	✓	1.57
2025-10-14	oos	0.6761	0.66394	-1.80%	0.6325	-6.45%	0.0189	✗	1.58
2025-10-13	oos	0.6991	0.685812	-1.90%	0.6661	-4.72%	0.0378	✗	1.61
2025-10-12	oos	0.7064	0.690132	-2.30%	0.6731	-4.71%	0.0678	✗	1.62
2025-10-11	oos	0.6166	0.604646	-1.94%	0.6227	+0.99%	0.0789	✗	1.52
2025-10-10	oos	0.5866	0.577092	-1.62%	0.6126	+4.43%	0.1556	✗	1.61
2025-10-09	oos	0.6817	0.67507	-0.97%	0.6252	-8.29%	0.1010	✗	1.51
2025-10-08	oos	0.7125	0.705612	-0.97%	0.6547	-8.11%	0.0834	✗	1.48
2025-10-07	oos	0.7047	0.695925	-1.25%	0.6761	-4.06%	0.0744	✗	1.45
2025-10-06	oos	0.736	0.729122	-0.93%	0.6991	-5.01%	0.0719	✗	1.45
2025-10-05	oos	0.7141	0.706336	-1.09%	0.7064	-1.08%	0.1019	✗	1.44
2025-10-04	oos	0.7215	0.711737	-1.35%	0.6166	-14.54%	0.0003	✓	1.43
2025-10-03	oos	0.7328	0.721687	-1.52%	0.5866	-19.95%	0.0930	✓	1.44
2025-10-02	oos	0.7458	0.731526	-1.91%	0.6817	-8.59%	0.0837	✓	1.46
2025-10-01	oos	0.728	0.710979	-2.34%	0.7125	-2.13%	0.0545	✓	1.46
2025-09-30	oos	0.6868	0.667641	-2.79%	0.7047	+2.61%	0.0361	✓	1.45
2025-09-29	oos	0.693	0.673368	-2.83%	0.736	+6.20%	0.0442	✓	1.54
2025-09-28	oos	0.7095	0.688183	-3.00%	0.7141	+0.65%	0.1208	✓	1.64
2025-09-27	oos	0.6949	0.673638	-3.06%	0.7215	+3.83%	0.1137	✓	1.66
2025-09-26	oos	0.6826	0.66226	-2.98%	0.7328	+7.35%	0.0789	✓	1.65
2025-09-25	oos	0.6951	0.675088	-2.88%	0.7458	+7.29%	0.0697	✓	1.68
2025-09-24	oos	0.7374	0.718943	-2.50%	0.728	-1.27%	0.0653	✓	1.70
2025-09-23	oos	0.7157	0.698506	-2.40%	0.6868	-4.04%	0.0478	✓	1.70
2025-09-22	oos	0.7471	0.731487	-2.09%	0.693	-7.24%	0.0795	✓	1.77
2025-09-21	oos	0.7844	0.770935	-1.72%	0.7095	-9.55%	0.0342	✓	1.80
2025-09-20	oos	0.8044	0.791768	-1.57%	0.6949	-13.61%	0.0384	✓	1.71
2025-09-19	oos	0.8018	0.789797	-1.50%	0.6826	-14.87%	0.0536	✓	1.74
2025-09-18	oos	0.813	0.801818	-1.38%	0.6951	-14.50%	0.0190	✓	1.73

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.