DCR

Decred · native · beta_5y

token id: #518
symbol: DCR
variant: –
chain: native
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-05-22
predictions: 435

Track record at +7d

assessed

137

of 145 predictions shown

direction hit

73.7%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0606

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0139

actual -0.0086

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	live	15.295	14.789	-3.31%	–	pending	–	–	0.75
2026-10-21	oos	14.773	14.3704	-2.73%	–	pending	–	–	0.74
2026-10-20	oos	14.749	14.346	-2.73%	–	pending	–	–	0.76
2026-10-19	oos	14.512	14.1613	-2.42%	–	pending	–	–	0.76
2026-10-18	oos	14.454	14.1704	-1.96%	–	pending	–	–	0.75
2026-10-17	oos	14.407	14.1892	-1.51%	–	pending	–	–	0.75
2026-10-16	oos	14.749	14.5408	-1.41%	–	pending	–	–	0.74
2026-10-15	oos	15.122	14.9063	-1.43%	–	pending	–	–	0.74
2026-10-14	oos	16.153	15.8406	-1.93%	14.773	-8.54%	0.0801	✓	0.75
2026-10-13	oos	16.365	16.0608	-1.86%	14.749	-9.87%	0.0837	✓	0.75
2026-10-12	oos	16.3325	16.0508	-1.72%	14.512	-11.15%	0.1017	✓	0.76
2026-10-11	oos	16.686	16.391	-1.77%	14.454	-13.38%	0.1092	✓	0.82
2026-10-10	oos	16.8915	16.5995	-1.73%	14.407	-14.71%	0.1269	✓	0.79
2026-10-09	oos	17.4845	17.1263	-2.05%	14.749	-15.65%	0.1394	✓	0.79
2026-10-08	oos	17.3785	17.0271	-2.02%	15.122	-12.98%	0.1228	✓	0.79
2026-10-07	oos	18.089	17.65	-2.43%	16.153	-10.70%	0.0727	✓	0.77
2026-10-06	oos	18.356	17.8638	-2.68%	16.365	-10.85%	0.0654	✓	0.77
2026-10-05	oos	18.533	17.9664	-3.06%	16.3325	-11.87%	0.0589	✓	0.76
2026-10-04	oos	18.355	17.7926	-3.06%	16.686	-9.09%	0.0385	✓	0.77
2026-10-03	oos	18.2965	17.7538	-2.97%	16.8915	-7.68%	0.0327	✓	0.78
2026-10-02	oos	18.255	17.7139	-2.96%	17.4845	-4.22%	0.0052	✓	0.78
2026-10-01	oos	18.171	17.6461	-2.89%	17.3785	-4.36%	0.0140	✓	0.77
2026-09-30	oos	18.434	17.867	-3.08%	18.089	-1.87%	0.0150	✓	0.79
2026-09-29	oos	18.116	17.5815	-2.95%	18.356	+1.32%	0.0254	✓	0.79
2026-09-28	oos	17.8165	17.3197	-2.79%	18.533	+4.02%	0.0463	✗	0.79
2026-09-27	oos	18.519	17.943	-3.11%	18.355	-0.89%	0.0035	✓	0.80
2026-09-26	oos	18.273	17.7272	-2.99%	18.2965	+0.13%	0.0285	✓	0.80
2026-09-25	oos	17.7	17.2133	-2.75%	18.255	+3.14%	0.0548	✗	0.81
2026-09-24	oos	18.268	17.7181	-3.01%	18.171	-0.53%	0.0208	✓	0.80
2026-09-23	oos	18.275	17.6907	-3.20%	18.434	+0.87%	0.0490	✗	0.80
2026-09-22	oos	18.729	18.0253	-3.76%	18.116	-3.27%	0.0309	✓	0.86
2026-09-21	oos	17.971	17.352	-3.44%	17.8165	-0.86%	0.0552	✗	0.78
2026-09-20	oos	17.302	16.7217	-3.35%	18.519	+7.03%	0.0695	✗	0.82
2026-09-19	oos	17.503	16.9191	-3.34%	18.273	+4.40%	0.0456	✗	0.82
2026-09-18	oos	17.739	17.1071	-3.56%	17.7	-0.22%	0.0017	✓	0.83
2026-09-17	oos	16.852	16.2893	-3.34%	18.268	+8.40%	0.0314	✓	0.83
2026-09-16	oos	15.686	15.3292	-2.27%	18.275	+16.51%	0.0904	✗	0.83
2026-09-15	oos	14.752	14.6189	-0.90%	18.729	+26.96%	0.1367	✗	0.85
2026-09-14	oos	16.692	16.3492	-2.05%	17.971	+7.66%	0.0180	✓	0.75
2026-09-13	oos	16.3315	16.101	-1.41%	17.302	+5.94%	0.0305	✗	0.75
2026-09-12	oos	16.0585	16.0133	-0.28%	17.503	+9.00%	0.0513	✗	0.75
2026-09-11	oos	15.873	16.0056	+0.84%	17.739	+11.76%	0.0672	✓	0.77
2026-09-10	oos	15.558	15.8677	+1.99%	16.852	+8.32%	0.0621	✓	0.77
2026-09-09	oos	16.4795	16.9522	+2.87%	15.686	-4.82%	0.0572	✗	0.74
2026-09-08	oos	17.3585	17.7733	+2.39%	14.752	-15.02%	0.1591	✗	0.73
2026-09-07	oos	15.789	16.5349	+4.72%	16.692	+5.72%	0.0184	✓	0.77
2026-09-06	oos	16.599	17.3239	+4.37%	16.3315	-1.61%	0.0252	✓	0.75
2026-09-05	oos	15.892	16.6317	+4.65%	16.0585	+1.05%	0.0106	✓	0.75
2026-09-04	oos	15.5575	16.2619	+4.53%	15.873	+2.03%	0.0014	✓	0.72
2026-09-03	oos	14.294	15.1564	+6.03%	15.558	+8.84%	0.0734	✓	0.79
2026-09-02	oos	13.9475	14.5252	+4.14%	16.4795	+18.15%	0.1153	✓	0.87
2026-09-01	oos	14.385	14.854	+3.26%	17.3585	+20.67%	0.1439	✓	0.89
2026-08-31	oos	14.5445	14.9759	+2.97%	15.789	+8.56%	0.0471	✓	0.86
2026-08-30	oos	14.067	14.4384	+2.64%	16.599	+18.00%	0.1106	✓	0.85
2026-08-29	oos	14.2525	14.5899	+2.37%	15.892	+11.50%	0.0684	✓	0.85
2026-08-28	oos	14.129	14.3762	+1.75%	15.5575	+10.11%	0.0592	✓	0.85
2026-08-27	oos	13.932	14.2173	+2.05%	14.294	+2.60%	0.0054	✓	0.88
2026-08-26	oos	13.851	14.0617	+1.52%	13.9475	+0.70%	0.0113	✓	0.88
2026-08-25	oos	13.665	13.8581	+1.41%	14.385	+5.27%	0.0499	✓	0.87
2026-08-24	oos	13.851	14.0219	+1.23%	14.5445	+5.01%	0.0412	✓	0.87
2026-08-23	oos	14.251	14.3232	+0.51%	14.067	-1.29%	0.0173	✗	0.88
2026-08-22	oos	13.985	13.9921	+0.05%	14.2525	+1.91%	0.0051	✓	0.88
2026-08-21	oos	13.0055	13.1362	+1.01%	14.129	+8.64%	0.0786	✓	0.92
2026-08-20	oos	11.955	12.0187	+0.53%	13.932	+16.54%	0.0659	✓	0.86
2026-08-19	oos	11.9285	11.8537	-0.63%	13.851	+16.12%	0.0340	✗	0.93
2026-08-18	oos	11.7125	11.5078	-1.75%	13.665	+16.67%	0.0290	✓	1.04
2026-08-17	oos	12.0775	11.8508	-1.88%	13.851	+14.68%	0.0552	✓	1.04
2026-08-16	oos	11.9685	11.7301	-1.99%	14.251	+19.07%	0.0302	✓	1.06
2026-08-15	oos	12.037	11.8065	-1.91%	13.985	+16.18%	0.0432	✓	1.06
2026-08-14	oos	11.97	11.7703	-1.67%	13.0055	+8.65%	0.1307	✓	1.06
2026-08-13	oos	12.14	11.9331	-1.70%	11.955	-1.52%	0.1467	✓	1.06
2026-08-12	oos	12.246	12.0165	-1.87%	11.9285	-2.59%	0.1011	✓	1.06
2026-08-11	oos	12.985	12.698	-2.21%	11.7125	-9.80%	0.0997	✓	1.06
2026-08-10	oos	12.7835	12.5377	-1.92%	12.0775	-5.52%	0.0467	✓	1.06
2026-08-09	oos	12.952	12.7092	-1.87%	11.9685	-7.59%	0.0266	✓	1.06
2026-08-08	oos	12.798	12.5837	-1.67%	12.037	-5.95%	0.0131	✓	1.06
2026-08-07	oos	12.7525	12.5506	-1.58%	11.97	-6.14%	0.0156	✓	1.06
2026-08-06	oos	12.51	12.3238	-1.49%	12.14	-2.96%	0.0011	✓	1.06
2026-08-05	oos	12.977	12.7307	-1.90%	12.246	-5.63%	0.0192	✓	1.05
2026-08-04	oos	13.3845	13.0785	-2.29%	12.985	-2.98%	0.0015	✓	1.07
2026-08-03	oos	13.2705	12.9734	-2.24%	12.7835	-3.67%	0.0222	✓	1.07
2026-08-02	oos	13.2305	12.9372	-2.22%	12.952	-2.10%	0.0213	✓	1.07
2026-08-01	oos	13.1025	12.7821	-2.45%	12.798	-2.32%	0.0347	✓	1.07
2026-07-31	oos	13.158	12.7814	-2.86%	12.7525	-3.08%	0.0369	✓	1.07
2026-07-30	oos	13.606	13.1217	-3.56%	12.51	-8.06%	0.0402	✓	1.07
2026-07-29	oos	11.6495	11.4195	-1.97%	12.977	+11.40%	0.1170	✗	0.98
2026-07-28	oos	11.581	11.3413	-2.07%	13.3845	+15.57%	0.1625	✗	0.98
2026-07-27	oos	11.183	11.0365	-1.31%	13.2705	+18.67%	0.1878	✗	0.97
2026-07-26	oos	11.685	11.5446	-1.20%	13.2305	+13.23%	0.1638	✗	0.96
2026-07-25	oos	11.5805	11.4723	-0.93%	13.1025	+13.14%	0.1561	✗	0.96
2026-07-24	oos	11.5935	11.5058	-0.76%	13.158	+13.49%	0.1533	✗	0.96
2026-07-23	oos	11.9935	11.9248	-0.57%	13.606	+13.44%	0.1367	✗	0.95
2026-07-22	oos	12.47	12.3925	-0.62%	11.6495	-6.58%	0.0301	✓	0.94
2026-07-21	oos	12.5985	12.5177	-0.64%	11.581	-8.08%	0.0392	✓	0.94
2026-07-20	oos	12.729	12.6166	-0.88%	11.183	-12.15%	0.0978	✓	0.97
2026-07-19	oos	12.72	12.6039	-0.91%	11.685	-8.14%	0.0855	✓	0.97
2026-07-18	oos	12.716	12.5889	-1.00%	11.5805	-8.93%	0.0760	✓	0.97
2026-07-17	oos	12.584	12.4665	-0.93%	11.5935	-7.87%	0.0755	✓	0.97
2026-07-16	oos	13.336	13.1321	-1.53%	11.9935	-10.07%	0.1102	✓	0.98
2026-07-15	oos	13.502	13.2465	-1.89%	12.47	-7.64%	0.0810	✓	0.98
2026-07-14	oos	13.764	13.4279	-2.44%	12.5985	-8.47%	0.0866	✓	0.98
2026-07-13	oos	12.513	12.2	-2.50%	12.729	+1.73%	0.0026	✓	0.86
2026-07-12	oos	12.1975	11.9578	-1.96%	12.72	+4.28%	0.0485	✗	0.91
2026-07-11	oos	11.253	11.1425	-0.98%	12.716	+13.00%	0.1178	✗	0.90
2026-07-10	oos	11.16	11.0679	-0.83%	12.584	+12.76%	0.1317	✗	0.90
2026-07-09	oos	11.012	10.9126	-0.90%	13.336	+21.10%	0.1921	✗	0.90
2026-07-08	oos	10.971	10.8566	-1.04%	13.502	+23.07%	0.1829	✗	0.90
2026-07-07	oos	11.012	10.8953	-1.06%	13.764	+24.99%	0.2101	✗	0.91
2026-07-06	oos	11.216	11.0934	-1.09%	12.513	+11.56%	0.1455	✗	0.91
2026-07-05	oos	11.145	11.018	-1.14%	12.1975	+9.44%	0.0995	✗	0.91
2026-07-04	oos	11.2845	11.1386	-1.29%	11.253	-0.28%	0.0003	✓	0.92
2026-07-03	oos	11.4835	11.3024	-1.58%	11.16	-2.82%	0.0363	✓	0.93
2026-07-02	oos	11.1825	11.0039	-1.60%	11.012	-1.52%	0.0240	✓	0.91
2026-07-01	oos	10.94	10.7582	-1.66%	10.971	+0.28%	0.0141	✓	0.90
2026-06-30	oos	10.729	10.5559	-1.61%	11.012	+2.64%	0.0285	✓	0.90
2026-06-29	oos	11.281	11.0729	-1.84%	11.216	-0.58%	0.0411	✓	0.87
2026-06-28	oos	11.106	10.9017	-1.84%	11.145	+0.35%	0.0354	✓	0.86
2026-06-27	oos	11.4885	11.2507	-2.07%	11.2845	-1.78%	0.0410	✓	0.86
2026-06-26	oos	11.197	10.9691	-2.04%	11.4835	+2.56%	0.0110	✓	0.85
2026-06-25	oos	10.96	10.6961	-2.41%	11.1825	+2.03%	0.0201	✓	0.83
2026-06-24	oos	12.179	11.7901	-3.19%	10.94	-10.17%	0.0621	✓	0.75
2026-06-23	oos	11.177	10.9521	-2.01%	10.729	-4.01%	0.0412	✗	0.91
2026-06-22	oos	11.5125	11.2668	-2.13%	11.281	-2.01%	0.0565	✗	0.90
2026-06-21	oos	11.433	11.1959	-2.07%	11.106	-2.86%	0.0471	✗	0.90
2026-06-20	oos	11.873	11.6016	-2.29%	11.4885	-3.24%	0.0593	✗	1.00
2026-06-19	oos	11.617	11.3657	-2.16%	11.197	-3.62%	0.0413	✗	1.00
2026-06-18	oos	11.479	11.2347	-2.13%	10.96	-4.52%	0.0271	✗	1.00
2026-06-17	oos	12.04	11.7625	-2.30%	12.179	+1.15%	0.0900	✗	1.00
2026-06-16	oos	12.39	12.0787	-2.51%	11.177	-9.79%	0.0312	✓	1.00
2026-06-15	oos	12.67	12.3017	-2.91%	11.5125	-9.14%	0.0306	✓	1.00
2026-06-14	oos	12.812	12.4218	-3.05%	11.433	-10.76%	0.0446	✓	1.00
2026-06-13	oos	12.242	11.9262	-2.58%	11.873	-3.01%	0.0013	✓	1.00
2026-06-12	oos	12.032	11.7313	-2.50%	11.617	-3.45%	0.0088	✓	1.00
2026-06-11	oos	12.172	11.847	-2.67%	11.479	-5.69%	0.0207	✓	1.00
2026-06-10	oos	11.832	11.5527	-2.36%	12.04	+1.76%	0.0063	✓	1.00
2026-06-09	oos	11.962	11.6699	-2.44%	12.39	+3.58%	0.0019	✓	1.00
2026-06-08	oos	12.271	11.9358	-2.73%	12.67	+3.25%	0.0100	✓	1.00
2026-06-07	oos	12.382	12.015	-2.96%	12.812	+3.47%	0.0270	✓	1.00
2026-06-06	oos	12.29	11.9888	-2.45%	12.242	-0.39%	0.0363	✓	1.00
2026-06-05	oos	12.102	11.8214	-2.32%	12.032	-0.58%	0.0226	✓	1.00
2026-06-04	oos	13.152	12.7428	-3.11%	12.172	-7.45%	0.0420	✓	1.00
2026-06-03	oos	14.506	13.989	-3.56%	11.832	-18.43%	0.1261	✓	1.00
2026-06-02	oos	14.746	14.1559	-4.00%	11.962	-18.88%	0.0909	✓	1.00
2026-06-01	oos	15.614	14.9756	-4.09%	12.271	-21.41%	0.0762	✓	1.00
2026-05-31	oos	16.0015	15.3377	-4.15%	12.382	-22.62%	0.0637	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.