DCR

Decred · native · beta_5y

token id: #518
symbol: DCR
variant: –
chain: native
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-05-22
predictions: 432

Track record at +30d

assessed

114

of 144 predictions shown

direction hit

62.3%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0936

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0340

actual +0.0158

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	15.295	14.0145	-8.37%	–	pending	–	–	0.75
2026-10-20	oos	14.749	13.6018	-7.78%	–	pending	–	–	0.76
2026-10-19	oos	14.512	13.4485	-7.33%	–	pending	–	–	0.76
2026-10-18	oos	14.454	13.4747	-6.78%	–	pending	–	–	0.75
2026-10-17	oos	14.407	13.5449	-5.98%	–	pending	–	–	0.75
2026-10-16	oos	14.749	13.9114	-5.68%	–	pending	–	–	0.74
2026-10-15	oos	15.122	14.3014	-5.43%	–	pending	–	–	0.74
2026-10-14	oos	16.153	15.1237	-6.37%	–	pending	–	–	0.75
2026-10-13	oos	16.365	15.3616	-6.13%	–	pending	–	–	0.75
2026-10-12	oos	16.3325	15.3211	-6.19%	–	pending	–	–	0.76
2026-10-11	oos	16.686	15.7297	-5.73%	–	pending	–	–	0.82
2026-10-10	oos	16.8915	15.872	-6.04%	–	pending	–	–	0.79
2026-10-09	oos	17.4845	16.3324	-6.59%	–	pending	–	–	0.79
2026-10-08	oos	17.3785	16.2421	-6.54%	–	pending	–	–	0.79
2026-10-07	oos	18.089	16.7855	-7.21%	–	pending	–	–	0.77
2026-10-06	oos	18.356	16.9909	-7.44%	–	pending	–	–	0.77
2026-10-05	oos	18.533	17.0421	-8.04%	–	pending	–	–	0.76
2026-10-04	oos	18.355	16.8825	-8.02%	–	pending	–	–	0.77
2026-10-03	oos	18.2965	16.88	-7.74%	–	pending	–	–	0.78
2026-10-02	oos	18.255	16.84	-7.75%	–	pending	–	–	0.78
2026-10-01	oos	18.171	16.8131	-7.47%	–	pending	–	–	0.77
2026-09-30	oos	18.434	16.9855	-7.86%	–	pending	–	–	0.79
2026-09-29	oos	18.116	16.7594	-7.49%	–	pending	–	–	0.79
2026-09-28	oos	17.8165	16.5783	-6.95%	–	pending	–	–	0.79
2026-09-27	oos	18.519	17.1177	-7.57%	–	pending	–	–	0.80
2026-09-26	oos	18.273	16.9648	-7.16%	–	pending	–	–	0.80
2026-09-25	oos	17.7	16.5381	-6.56%	–	pending	–	–	0.81
2026-09-24	oos	18.268	16.9592	-7.16%	–	pending	–	–	0.80
2026-09-23	oos	18.275	16.907	-7.49%	–	pending	–	–	0.80
2026-09-22	oos	18.729	17.1636	-8.36%	–	pending	–	–	0.86
2026-09-21	oos	17.971	16.6515	-7.34%	15.295	-14.89%	0.0614	✓	0.78
2026-09-20	oos	17.302	15.9162	-8.01%	14.749	-14.76%	0.0939	✓	0.82
2026-09-19	oos	17.503	16.1268	-7.86%	14.512	-17.09%	0.1115	✓	0.82
2026-09-18	oos	17.739	16.287	-8.19%	14.454	-18.52%	0.1309	✓	0.83
2026-09-17	oos	16.852	15.4507	-8.32%	14.407	-14.51%	0.1230	✓	0.83
2026-09-16	oos	15.686	14.6565	-6.56%	14.749	-5.97%	0.0502	✓	0.83
2026-09-15	oos	14.752	14.045	-4.79%	15.122	+2.51%	0.0038	✓	0.85
2026-09-14	oos	16.692	15.6553	-6.21%	16.153	-3.23%	0.0005	✓	0.75
2026-09-13	oos	16.3315	15.3932	-5.75%	16.365	+0.21%	0.0020	✓	0.75
2026-09-12	oos	16.0585	15.3718	-4.28%	16.3325	+1.71%	0.0183	✓	0.75
2026-09-11	oos	15.873	15.4434	-2.71%	16.686	+5.12%	0.0156	✓	0.77
2026-09-10	oos	15.558	15.2777	-1.80%	16.8915	+8.57%	0.0390	✗	0.77
2026-09-09	oos	16.4795	16.4534	-0.16%	17.4845	+6.10%	0.0218	✗	0.74
2026-09-08	oos	17.3585	17.3711	+0.07%	17.3785	+0.12%	0.0292	✗	0.73
2026-09-07	oos	15.789	16.1281	+2.15%	18.089	+14.57%	0.0753	✓	0.77
2026-09-06	oos	16.599	16.9824	+2.31%	18.356	+10.58%	0.0307	✓	0.75
2026-09-05	oos	15.892	16.5192	+3.95%	18.533	+16.62%	0.0615	✓	0.75
2026-09-04	oos	15.5575	16.0773	+3.34%	18.355	+17.98%	0.0729	✓	0.72
2026-09-03	oos	14.294	15.0307	+5.15%	18.2965	+28.00%	0.1636	✓	0.79
2026-09-02	oos	13.9475	14.3515	+2.90%	18.255	+30.88%	0.1629	✓	0.87
2026-09-01	oos	14.385	14.8098	+2.95%	18.171	+26.32%	0.1232	✓	0.89
2026-08-31	oos	14.5445	15.1312	+4.03%	18.434	+26.74%	0.1443	✓	0.86
2026-08-30	oos	14.067	14.5511	+3.44%	18.116	+28.78%	0.1561	✓	0.85
2026-08-29	oos	14.2525	14.8507	+4.20%	17.8165	+25.01%	0.1273	✓	0.85
2026-08-28	oos	14.129	14.7145	+4.14%	18.519	+31.07%	0.1608	✓	0.85
2026-08-27	oos	13.932	14.7346	+5.76%	18.273	+31.16%	0.1710	✓	0.88
2026-08-26	oos	13.851	14.5703	+5.19%	17.7	+27.79%	0.1397	✓	0.88
2026-08-25	oos	13.665	14.429	+5.59%	18.268	+33.68%	0.1732	✓	0.87
2026-08-24	oos	13.851	14.6735	+5.94%	18.275	+31.94%	0.1623	✓	0.87
2026-08-23	oos	14.251	14.9253	+4.73%	18.729	+31.42%	0.1358	✓	0.88
2026-08-22	oos	13.985	14.6297	+4.61%	17.971	+28.50%	0.1030	✓	0.88
2026-08-21	oos	13.0055	13.9527	+7.28%	17.302	+33.04%	0.1826	✓	0.92
2026-08-20	oos	11.955	12.4553	+4.19%	17.503	+46.41%	0.2481	✓	0.86
2026-08-19	oos	11.9285	11.9026	-0.22%	17.739	+48.71%	0.2559	✗	0.93
2026-08-18	oos	11.7125	11.2186	-4.22%	16.852	+43.88%	0.2352	✗	1.04
2026-08-17	oos	12.0775	11.5194	-4.62%	15.686	+29.88%	0.1356	✗	1.04
2026-08-16	oos	11.9685	11.3445	-5.21%	14.752	+23.26%	0.0674	✗	1.06
2026-08-15	oos	12.037	11.4493	-4.88%	16.692	+38.67%	0.1492	✗	1.06
2026-08-14	oos	11.97	11.434	-4.48%	16.3315	+36.44%	0.1468	✗	1.06
2026-08-13	oos	12.14	11.5962	-4.48%	16.0585	+32.28%	0.1172	✗	1.06
2026-08-12	oos	12.246	11.6691	-4.71%	15.873	+29.62%	0.0997	✗	1.06
2026-08-11	oos	12.985	12.2746	-5.47%	15.558	+19.82%	0.0403	✓	1.06
2026-08-10	oos	12.7835	12.1736	-4.77%	16.4795	+28.91%	0.0878	✗	1.06
2026-08-09	oos	12.952	12.3514	-4.64%	17.3585	+34.02%	0.1382	✗	1.06
2026-08-08	oos	12.798	12.2595	-4.21%	15.789	+23.37%	0.0433	✗	1.06
2026-08-07	oos	12.7525	12.2644	-3.83%	16.599	+30.16%	0.0761	✗	1.06
2026-08-06	oos	12.51	12.0557	-3.63%	15.892	+27.03%	0.0472	✗	1.06
2026-08-05	oos	12.977	12.4056	-4.40%	15.5575	+19.89%	0.0057	✓	1.05
2026-08-04	oos	13.3845	12.6408	-5.56%	14.294	+6.80%	0.1314	✓	1.07
2026-08-03	oos	13.2705	12.5156	-5.69%	13.9475	+5.10%	0.1025	✓	1.07
2026-08-02	oos	13.2305	12.4792	-5.68%	14.385	+8.73%	0.0693	✓	1.07
2026-08-01	oos	13.1025	12.2858	-6.23%	14.5445	+11.01%	0.0713	✓	1.07
2026-07-31	oos	13.158	12.2736	-6.72%	14.067	+6.91%	0.0904	✓	1.07
2026-07-30	oos	13.606	12.6702	-6.88%	14.2525	+4.75%	0.0849	✓	1.07
2026-07-29	oos	11.6495	11.12	-4.55%	14.129	+21.28%	0.0455	✓	0.98
2026-07-28	oos	11.581	11.0595	-4.50%	13.932	+20.30%	0.0062	✓	0.98
2026-07-27	oos	11.183	10.7811	-3.59%	13.851	+23.86%	0.0404	✗	0.97
2026-07-26	oos	11.685	11.3356	-2.99%	13.665	+16.94%	0.0104	✓	0.96
2026-07-25	oos	11.5805	11.3208	-2.24%	13.851	+19.61%	0.0037	✓	0.96
2026-07-24	oos	11.5935	11.421	-1.49%	14.251	+22.92%	0.0355	✗	0.96
2026-07-23	oos	11.9935	11.8852	-0.90%	13.985	+16.60%	0.0011	✓	0.95
2026-07-22	oos	12.47	12.3724	-0.78%	13.0055	+4.29%	0.1102	✓	0.94
2026-07-21	oos	12.5985	12.5424	-0.45%	11.955	-5.11%	0.1357	✓	0.94
2026-07-20	oos	12.729	12.5514	-1.40%	11.9285	-6.29%	0.1097	✓	0.97
2026-07-19	oos	12.72	12.5446	-1.38%	11.7125	-7.92%	0.0686	✓	0.97
2026-07-18	oos	12.716	12.5817	-1.06%	12.0775	-5.02%	0.0361	✓	0.97
2026-07-17	oos	12.584	12.3955	-1.50%	11.9685	-4.89%	0.0189	✓	0.97
2026-07-16	oos	13.336	12.9809	-2.66%	12.037	-9.74%	0.0638	✓	0.98
2026-07-15	oos	13.502	13.1443	-2.65%	11.97	-11.35%	0.0667	✓	0.98
2026-07-14	oos	13.764	13.3051	-3.33%	12.14	-11.80%	0.0677	✓	0.98
2026-07-13	oos	12.513	12.0739	-3.51%	12.246	-2.13%	0.0016	✓	0.86
2026-07-12	oos	12.1975	11.8596	-2.77%	12.985	+6.46%	0.0936	✗	0.91
2026-07-11	oos	11.253	11.0599	-1.72%	12.7835	+13.60%	0.1429	✗	0.90
2026-07-10	oos	11.16	10.9657	-1.74%	12.952	+16.06%	0.1564	✗	0.90
2026-07-09	oos	11.012	10.797	-1.95%	12.798	+16.22%	0.1458	✗	0.90
2026-07-08	oos	10.971	10.7156	-2.33%	12.7525	+16.24%	0.1365	✗	0.90
2026-07-07	oos	11.012	10.7619	-2.27%	12.51	+13.60%	0.1370	✗	0.91
2026-07-06	oos	11.216	10.9322	-2.53%	12.977	+15.70%	0.1630	✗	0.91
2026-07-05	oos	11.145	10.846	-2.68%	13.3845	+20.09%	0.2037	✗	0.91
2026-07-04	oos	11.2845	10.9426	-3.03%	13.2705	+17.60%	0.1874	✗	0.92
2026-07-03	oos	11.4835	11.0751	-3.56%	13.2305	+15.21%	0.1634	✗	0.93
2026-07-02	oos	11.1825	10.7627	-3.75%	13.1025	+17.17%	0.1779	✗	0.91
2026-07-01	oos	10.94	10.4929	-4.09%	13.158	+20.27%	0.1841	✗	0.90
2026-06-30	oos	10.729	10.2681	-4.30%	13.606	+26.82%	0.1910	✗	0.90
2026-06-29	oos	11.281	10.7553	-4.66%	11.6495	+3.27%	0.0273	✓	0.87
2026-06-28	oos	11.106	10.5718	-4.81%	11.581	+4.28%	0.0301	✓	0.86
2026-06-27	oos	11.4885	10.8878	-5.23%	11.183	-2.66%	0.0255	✓	0.86
2026-06-26	oos	11.197	10.616	-5.19%	11.685	+4.36%	0.0237	✓	0.85
2026-06-25	oos	10.96	10.3515	-5.55%	11.5805	+5.66%	0.0506	✓	0.83
2026-06-24	oos	12.179	11.3741	-6.61%	11.5935	-4.81%	0.0183	✓	0.75
2026-06-23	oos	11.177	10.6005	-5.16%	11.9935	+7.31%	0.0892	✗	0.91
2026-06-22	oos	11.5125	10.9042	-5.28%	12.47	+8.32%	0.1045	✗	0.90
2026-06-21	oos	11.433	10.818	-5.38%	12.5985	+10.19%	0.1069	✗	0.90
2026-06-20	oos	11.873	11.1952	-5.71%	12.729	+7.21%	0.1131	✗	1.00
2026-06-19	oos	11.617	10.9568	-5.68%	12.72	+9.49%	0.1304	✗	1.00
2026-06-18	oos	11.479	10.824	-5.71%	12.716	+10.78%	0.1311	✗	1.00
2026-06-17	oos	12.04	11.3129	-6.04%	12.584	+4.52%	0.1151	✗	1.00
2026-06-16	oos	12.39	11.5967	-6.40%	13.336	+7.64%	0.1683	✗	1.00
2026-06-15	oos	12.67	11.7935	-6.92%	13.502	+6.57%	0.1591	✗	1.00
2026-06-14	oos	12.812	11.8861	-7.23%	13.764	+7.43%	0.1577	✗	1.00
2026-06-13	oos	12.242	11.4126	-6.77%	12.513	+2.21%	0.1262	✗	1.00
2026-06-12	oos	12.032	11.2222	-6.73%	12.1975	+1.38%	0.0802	✗	1.00
2026-06-11	oos	12.172	11.3134	-7.05%	11.253	-7.55%	0.0086	✓	1.00
2026-06-10	oos	11.832	11.0296	-6.78%	11.16	-5.68%	0.0310	✓	1.00
2026-06-09	oos	11.962	11.1174	-7.06%	11.012	-7.94%	0.0334	✓	1.00
2026-06-08	oos	12.271	11.3297	-7.67%	10.971	-10.59%	0.0190	✓	1.00
2026-06-07	oos	12.382	11.3762	-8.12%	11.012	-11.06%	0.0329	✓	1.00
2026-06-06	oos	12.29	11.3493	-7.65%	11.216	-8.74%	0.0623	✓	1.00
2026-06-05	oos	12.102	11.1707	-7.70%	11.145	-7.91%	0.0433	✓	1.00
2026-06-04	oos	13.152	11.993	-8.81%	11.2845	-14.20%	0.0496	✓	1.00
2026-06-03	oos	14.506	13.1345	-9.45%	11.4835	-20.84%	0.1103	✓	1.00
2026-06-02	oos	14.746	13.271	-10.00%	11.1825	-24.17%	0.0904	✓	1.00
2026-06-01	oos	15.614	14.0339	-10.12%	10.94	-29.93%	0.0757	✓	1.00
2026-05-31	oos	16.0015	14.359	-10.26%	10.729	-32.95%	0.0626	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.