DCR

Decred · native · beta_5y

token id: #518
symbol: DCR
variant: –
chain: native
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-05-22
predictions: 435

Track record at +1d

assessed

143

of 145 predictions shown

direction hit

58.0%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0227

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0038

actual -0.0013

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	live	15.295	15.1988	-0.63%	–	pending	–	–	0.75
2026-10-21	oos	14.773	14.7063	-0.45%	–	pending	–	–	0.74
2026-10-20	oos	14.749	14.6823	-0.45%	14.773	+0.16%	0.0084	✗	0.76
2026-10-19	oos	14.512	14.4546	-0.40%	14.749	+1.63%	0.0100	✗	0.76
2026-10-18	oos	14.454	14.4141	-0.28%	14.512	+0.40%	0.0083	✗	0.75
2026-10-17	oos	14.407	14.3803	-0.19%	14.454	+0.33%	0.0006	✓	0.75
2026-10-16	oos	14.749	14.7226	-0.18%	14.407	-2.32%	0.0206	✓	0.74
2026-10-15	oos	15.122	15.0886	-0.22%	14.749	-2.47%	0.0171	✓	0.74
2026-10-14	oos	16.153	16.0961	-0.35%	15.122	-6.38%	0.0675	✓	0.75
2026-10-13	oos	16.365	16.3053	-0.36%	16.153	-1.30%	0.0046	✗	0.75
2026-10-12	oos	16.3325	16.2787	-0.33%	16.365	+0.20%	0.0072	✓	0.76
2026-10-11	oos	16.686	16.619	-0.40%	16.3325	-2.12%	0.0018	✓	0.82
2026-10-10	oos	16.8915	16.8297	-0.37%	16.686	-1.22%	0.0159	✓	0.79
2026-10-09	oos	17.4845	17.4054	-0.45%	16.8915	-3.39%	0.0335	✓	0.79
2026-10-08	oos	17.3785	17.2995	-0.45%	17.4845	+0.61%	0.0025	✓	0.79
2026-10-07	oos	18.089	17.9906	-0.54%	17.3785	-3.93%	0.0199	✓	0.77
2026-10-06	oos	18.356	18.2461	-0.60%	18.089	-1.45%	0.0120	✗	0.77
2026-10-05	oos	18.533	18.4068	-0.68%	18.356	-0.96%	0.0009	✓	0.76
2026-10-04	oos	18.355	18.2309	-0.68%	18.533	+0.97%	0.0232	✗	0.77
2026-10-03	oos	18.2965	18.1769	-0.65%	18.355	+0.32%	0.0063	✓	0.78
2026-10-02	oos	18.255	18.1369	-0.65%	18.2965	+0.23%	0.0066	✗	0.78
2026-10-01	oos	18.171	18.0581	-0.62%	18.255	+0.46%	0.0140	✗	0.77
2026-09-30	oos	18.434	18.3132	-0.66%	18.171	-1.43%	0.0199	✓	0.79
2026-09-29	oos	18.116	18.004	-0.62%	18.434	+1.76%	0.0244	✗	0.79
2026-09-28	oos	17.8165	17.7119	-0.59%	18.116	+1.68%	0.0208	✗	0.79
2026-09-27	oos	18.519	18.3942	-0.67%	17.8165	-3.79%	0.0223	✓	0.80
2026-09-26	oos	18.273	18.1532	-0.66%	18.519	+1.35%	0.0195	✗	0.80
2026-09-25	oos	17.7	17.5962	-0.59%	18.273	+3.24%	0.0346	✗	0.81
2026-09-24	oos	18.268	18.1503	-0.64%	17.7	-3.11%	0.0223	✓	0.80
2026-09-23	oos	18.275	18.1516	-0.68%	18.268	-0.04%	0.0063	✓	0.80
2026-09-22	oos	18.729	18.5698	-0.85%	18.275	-2.42%	0.0023	✓	0.86
2026-09-21	oos	17.971	17.8263	-0.81%	18.729	+4.22%	0.0530	✗	0.78
2026-09-20	oos	17.302	17.1851	-0.68%	17.971	+3.87%	0.0083	✓	0.82
2026-09-19	oos	17.503	17.3819	-0.69%	17.302	-1.15%	0.0039	✓	0.82
2026-09-18	oos	17.739	17.5975	-0.80%	17.503	-1.33%	0.0091	✓	0.83
2026-09-17	oos	16.852	16.7231	-0.77%	17.739	+5.26%	0.0111	✗	0.83
2026-09-16	oos	15.686	15.6086	-0.49%	16.852	+7.43%	0.0744	✗	0.83
2026-09-15	oos	14.752	14.7337	-0.12%	15.686	+6.33%	0.0564	✗	0.85
2026-09-14	oos	16.692	16.6115	-0.48%	14.752	-11.62%	0.0935	✓	0.75
2026-09-13	oos	16.3315	16.2767	-0.34%	16.692	+2.21%	0.0119	✗	0.75
2026-09-12	oos	16.0585	16.0429	-0.10%	16.3315	+1.70%	0.0224	✗	0.75
2026-09-11	oos	15.873	15.8863	+0.08%	16.0585	+1.17%	0.0102	✓	0.77
2026-09-10	oos	15.558	15.6118	+0.35%	15.873	+2.02%	0.0099	✓	0.77
2026-09-09	oos	16.4795	16.5469	+0.41%	15.558	-5.59%	0.0450	✗	0.74
2026-09-08	oos	17.3585	17.3738	+0.09%	16.4795	-5.06%	0.0513	✗	0.73
2026-09-07	oos	15.789	15.898	+0.69%	17.3585	+9.94%	0.0941	✓	0.77
2026-09-06	oos	16.599	16.6848	+0.52%	15.789	-4.88%	0.0434	✗	0.75
2026-09-05	oos	15.892	15.9574	+0.41%	16.599	+4.45%	0.0347	✓	0.75
2026-09-04	oos	15.5575	15.6253	+0.44%	15.892	+2.15%	0.0155	✓	0.72
2026-09-03	oos	14.294	14.4045	+0.77%	15.5575	+8.84%	0.0925	✓	0.79
2026-09-02	oos	13.9475	14.0207	+0.52%	14.294	+2.48%	0.0242	✗	0.87
2026-09-01	oos	14.385	14.4328	+0.33%	13.9475	-3.04%	0.0332	✗	0.89
2026-08-31	oos	14.5445	14.5689	+0.17%	14.385	-1.10%	0.0002	✓	0.86
2026-08-30	oos	14.067	14.0978	+0.22%	14.5445	+3.39%	0.0214	✓	0.85
2026-08-29	oos	14.2525	14.2701	+0.12%	14.067	-1.30%	0.0082	✗	0.85
2026-08-28	oos	14.129	14.1238	-0.04%	14.2525	+0.87%	0.0048	✗	0.85
2026-08-27	oos	13.932	13.9351	+0.02%	14.129	+1.41%	0.0409	✓	0.88
2026-08-26	oos	13.851	13.8417	-0.07%	13.932	+0.58%	0.0073	✓	0.88
2026-08-25	oos	13.665	13.6542	-0.08%	13.851	+1.36%	0.0088	✗	0.87
2026-08-24	oos	13.851	13.831	-0.14%	13.665	-1.34%	0.0071	✓	0.87
2026-08-23	oos	14.251	14.1991	-0.36%	13.851	-2.81%	0.0389	✓	0.88
2026-08-22	oos	13.985	13.9079	-0.55%	14.251	+1.90%	0.0167	✗	0.88
2026-08-21	oos	13.0055	12.9735	-0.25%	13.985	+7.53%	0.0901	✗	0.92
2026-08-20	oos	11.955	11.9359	-0.16%	13.0055	+8.79%	0.0252	✗	0.86
2026-08-19	oos	11.9285	11.8949	-0.28%	11.955	+0.22%	0.0433	✓	0.93
2026-08-18	oos	11.7125	11.667	-0.39%	11.9285	+1.84%	0.0492	✓	1.04
2026-08-17	oos	12.0775	12.0264	-0.42%	11.7125	-3.02%	0.0297	✓	1.04
2026-08-16	oos	11.9685	11.9184	-0.42%	12.0775	+0.91%	0.0140	✓	1.06
2026-08-15	oos	12.037	11.9865	-0.42%	11.9685	-0.57%	0.0016	✓	1.06
2026-08-14	oos	11.97	11.9281	-0.35%	12.037	+0.56%	0.0084	✗	1.06
2026-08-13	oos	12.14	12.0965	-0.36%	11.97	-1.40%	0.0030	✓	1.06
2026-08-12	oos	12.246	12.1955	-0.41%	12.14	-0.87%	0.0048	✓	1.06
2026-08-11	oos	12.985	12.9177	-0.52%	12.246	-5.69%	0.0514	✓	1.06
2026-08-10	oos	12.7835	12.7243	-0.46%	12.985	+1.58%	0.0266	✗	1.06
2026-08-09	oos	12.952	12.8923	-0.46%	12.7835	-1.30%	0.0070	✗	1.06
2026-08-08	oos	12.798	12.7458	-0.41%	12.952	+1.20%	0.0170	✗	1.06
2026-08-07	oos	12.7525	12.704	-0.38%	12.798	+0.36%	0.0071	✗	1.06
2026-08-06	oos	12.51	12.4665	-0.35%	12.7525	+1.94%	0.0125	✗	1.06
2026-08-05	oos	12.977	12.9151	-0.48%	12.51	-3.60%	0.0264	✓	1.05
2026-08-04	oos	13.3845	13.3106	-0.55%	12.977	-3.04%	0.0346	✓	1.07
2026-08-03	oos	13.2705	13.2013	-0.52%	13.3845	+0.86%	0.0040	✓	1.07
2026-08-02	oos	13.2305	13.1619	-0.52%	13.2705	+0.30%	0.0088	✗	1.07
2026-08-01	oos	13.1025	13.0268	-0.58%	13.2305	+0.98%	0.0031	✓	1.07
2026-07-31	oos	13.158	13.0574	-0.76%	13.1025	-0.42%	0.0045	✓	1.07
2026-07-30	oos	13.606	13.4473	-1.17%	13.158	-3.29%	0.0100	✓	1.07
2026-07-29	oos	11.6495	11.5866	-0.54%	13.606	+16.79%	0.1480	✗	0.98
2026-07-28	oos	11.581	11.5101	-0.61%	11.6495	+0.59%	0.0113	✗	0.98
2026-07-27	oos	11.183	11.1465	-0.33%	11.581	+3.56%	0.0359	✗	0.97
2026-07-26	oos	11.685	11.6455	-0.34%	11.183	-4.30%	0.0160	✓	0.96
2026-07-25	oos	11.5805	11.5476	-0.28%	11.685	+0.90%	0.0037	✓	0.96
2026-07-24	oos	11.5935	11.5614	-0.28%	11.5805	-0.11%	0.0015	✓	0.96
2026-07-23	oos	11.9935	11.9625	-0.26%	11.5935	-3.34%	0.0170	✓	0.95
2026-07-22	oos	12.47	12.4323	-0.30%	11.9935	-3.82%	0.0211	✓	0.94
2026-07-21	oos	12.5985	12.5556	-0.34%	12.47	-1.02%	0.0007	✓	0.94
2026-07-20	oos	12.729	12.6819	-0.37%	12.5985	-1.03%	0.0257	✓	0.97
2026-07-19	oos	12.72	12.6719	-0.38%	12.729	+0.07%	0.0034	✓	0.97
2026-07-18	oos	12.716	12.6589	-0.45%	12.72	+0.03%	0.0065	✗	0.97
2026-07-17	oos	12.584	12.5366	-0.38%	12.716	+1.05%	0.0006	✓	0.97
2026-07-16	oos	13.336	13.2571	-0.59%	12.584	-5.64%	0.0540	✓	0.98
2026-07-15	oos	13.502	13.3927	-0.81%	13.336	-1.23%	0.0102	✗	0.98
2026-07-14	oos	13.764	13.6188	-1.05%	13.502	-1.90%	0.0045	✓	0.98
2026-07-13	oos	12.513	12.3831	-1.04%	13.764	+10.00%	0.0688	✗	0.86
2026-07-12	oos	12.1975	12.1017	-0.79%	12.513	+2.59%	0.0547	✗	0.91
2026-07-11	oos	11.253	11.2154	-0.33%	12.1975	+8.39%	0.0844	✗	0.90
2026-07-10	oos	11.16	11.1321	-0.25%	11.253	+0.83%	0.0158	✗	0.90
2026-07-09	oos	11.012	10.9843	-0.25%	11.16	+1.34%	0.0025	✓	0.90
2026-07-08	oos	10.971	10.9406	-0.28%	11.012	+0.37%	0.0069	✓	0.90
2026-07-07	oos	11.012	10.98	-0.29%	10.971	-0.37%	0.0149	✗	0.91
2026-07-06	oos	11.216	11.1841	-0.28%	11.012	-1.82%	0.0058	✓	0.91
2026-07-05	oos	11.145	11.1139	-0.28%	11.216	+0.64%	0.0032	✗	0.91
2026-07-04	oos	11.2845	11.2497	-0.31%	11.145	-1.24%	0.0165	✓	0.92
2026-07-03	oos	11.4835	11.4387	-0.39%	11.2845	-1.73%	0.0220	✓	0.93
2026-07-02	oos	11.1825	11.141	-0.37%	11.4835	+2.69%	0.0150	✗	0.91
2026-07-01	oos	10.94	10.9	-0.37%	11.1825	+2.22%	0.0029	✓	0.90
2026-06-30	oos	10.729	10.6943	-0.32%	10.94	+1.97%	0.0009	✓	0.90
2026-06-29	oos	11.281	11.2359	-0.40%	10.729	-4.89%	0.0221	✓	0.87
2026-06-28	oos	11.106	11.0637	-0.38%	11.281	+1.58%	0.0095	✗	0.86
2026-06-27	oos	11.4885	11.4358	-0.46%	11.106	-3.33%	0.0226	✓	0.86
2026-06-26	oos	11.197	11.1475	-0.44%	11.4885	+2.60%	0.0311	✗	0.85
2026-06-25	oos	10.96	10.8947	-0.60%	11.197	+2.16%	0.0232	✗	0.83
2026-06-24	oos	12.179	12.068	-0.91%	10.96	-10.01%	0.0803	✓	0.75
2026-06-23	oos	11.177	11.1331	-0.39%	12.179	+8.96%	0.1142	✗	0.91
2026-06-22	oos	11.5125	11.4622	-0.44%	11.177	-2.91%	0.0066	✓	0.90
2026-06-21	oos	11.433	11.3873	-0.40%	11.5125	+0.70%	0.0008	✓	0.90
2026-06-20	oos	11.873	11.8177	-0.47%	11.433	-3.71%	0.0176	✓	1.00
2026-06-19	oos	11.617	11.5693	-0.41%	11.873	+2.20%	0.0142	✗	1.00
2026-06-18	oos	11.479	11.4347	-0.39%	11.617	+1.20%	0.0064	✗	1.00
2026-06-17	oos	12.04	11.9893	-0.42%	11.479	-4.66%	0.0189	✓	1.00
2026-06-16	oos	12.39	12.3326	-0.46%	12.04	-2.82%	0.0060	✓	1.00
2026-06-15	oos	12.67	12.5957	-0.59%	12.39	-2.21%	0.0065	✓	1.00
2026-06-14	oos	12.812	12.7307	-0.63%	12.67	-1.11%	0.0134	✓	1.00
2026-06-13	oos	12.242	12.1844	-0.47%	12.812	+4.66%	0.0306	✗	1.00
2026-06-12	oos	12.032	11.9795	-0.44%	12.242	+1.75%	0.0077	✗	1.00
2026-06-11	oos	12.172	12.1152	-0.47%	12.032	-1.15%	0.0065	✓	1.00
2026-06-10	oos	11.832	11.787	-0.38%	12.172	+2.87%	0.0017	✓	1.00
2026-06-09	oos	11.962	11.9166	-0.38%	11.832	-1.09%	0.0032	✓	1.00
2026-06-08	oos	12.271	12.2188	-0.43%	11.962	-2.52%	0.0008	✓	1.00
2026-06-07	oos	12.382	12.3211	-0.49%	12.271	-0.90%	0.0003	✓	1.00
2026-06-06	oos	12.29	12.2429	-0.38%	12.382	+0.75%	0.0282	✓	1.00
2026-06-05	oos	12.102	12.061	-0.34%	12.29	+1.55%	0.0218	✗	1.00
2026-06-04	oos	13.152	13.0839	-0.52%	12.102	-7.98%	0.0336	✓	1.00
2026-06-03	oos	14.506	14.4069	-0.68%	13.152	-9.33%	0.0875	✓	1.00
2026-06-02	oos	14.746	14.6291	-0.79%	14.506	-1.63%	0.0316	✗	1.00
2026-06-01	oos	15.614	15.5007	-0.73%	14.746	-5.56%	0.0176	✗	1.00
2026-05-31	oos	16.0015	15.8896	-0.70%	15.614	-2.42%	0.0137	✗	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.