BASED

Based · Ethereum · beta_5y

token id: #838
symbol: BASED
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0x4f2b33840227ddd0e28da8d4185d6fa07adfed87
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-03-30
predictions: 594

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +7d

assessed

191

of 198 predictions shown

direction hit

48.2%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1416

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0282

actual -0.0057

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	live	0.054285	0.053594	-1.27%	–	pending	–	–	0.90
2026-10-21	oos	0.05086	0.050277	-1.15%	–	pending	–	–	0.81
2026-10-20	oos	0.050125	0.04951	-1.23%	–	pending	–	–	0.86
2026-10-19	oos	0.047365	0.04691	-0.96%	–	pending	–	–	0.84
2026-10-18	oos	0.048835	0.048235	-1.23%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-17	oos	0.05305	0.051844	-2.27%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-16	oos	0.056	0.054249	-3.13%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-15	oos	0.0446	0.044153	-1.00%	0.054285	+21.72%	0.1839	✗	0.90
2026-10-14	oos	0.043815	0.043446	-0.84%	0.05086	+16.08%	0.1452	✗	0.90
2026-10-13	oos	0.047865	0.047629	-0.49%	0.050125	+4.72%	0.0527	✗	0.84
2026-10-12	oos	0.05471	0.05446	-0.46%	0.047365	-13.43%	0.1406	✓	0.89
2026-10-11	oos	0.066235	0.065656	-0.87%	0.048835	-26.27%	0.2830	✓	0.64
2026-10-10	oos	0.068045	0.067259	-1.15%	0.05305	-22.04%	0.2245	✓	0.69
2026-10-09	oos	0.068525	0.067597	-1.35%	0.056	-18.28%	0.1795	✓	0.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.065965	0.065049	-1.39%	0.0446	-32.39%	0.3810	✓	0.69
2026-10-07	oos	0.06749	0.066402	-1.61%	0.043815	-35.08%	0.4021	✓	0.66
2026-10-06	oos	0.06713	0.066158	-1.45%	0.047865	-28.70%	0.3015	✓	0.77
2026-10-05	oos	0.06217	0.06188	-0.47%	0.05471	-12.00%	0.0870	✓	0.75
2026-10-04	oos	0.062415	0.062159	-0.41%	0.066235	+6.12%	0.0899	✗	0.79
2026-10-03	oos	0.06187	0.061572	-0.48%	0.068045	+9.98%	0.1174	✗	0.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.06284	0.062488	-0.56%	0.068525	+9.05%	0.1109	✗	0.80
2026-10-01	oos	0.065225	0.064687	-0.82%	0.065965	+1.13%	0.0494	✗	0.79
2026-09-30	oos	0.06616	0.065577	-0.88%	0.06749	+2.01%	0.0313	✗	0.77
2026-09-29	oos	0.0669	0.066293	-0.91%	0.06713	+0.34%	0.0012	✓	0.61
2026-09-28	oos	0.06719	0.066646	-0.81%	0.06217	-7.47%	0.0900	✓	0.75
2026-09-27	oos	0.07096	0.070201	-1.07%	0.062415	-12.04%	0.1304	✓	0.54
2026-09-26	oos	0.071135	0.070197	-1.32%	0.06187	-13.02%	0.1283	✓	0.54
2026-09-25	oos	0.069215	0.068603	-0.88%	0.06284	-9.21%	0.0903	✓	0.51
2026-09-24	oos	0.06689	0.066467	-0.63%	0.065225	-2.49%	0.0216	✓	0.51
2026-09-23	oos	0.06365	0.063482	-0.26%	0.06616	+3.94%	0.0463	✗	0.51
2026-09-22	oos	0.068925	0.068543	-0.55%	0.0669	-2.94%	0.0073	✓	0.56
2026-09-21	oos	0.06818	0.06783	-0.51%	0.06719	-1.45%	0.0160	✗	0.69
2026-09-20	oos	0.066145	0.065697	-0.68%	0.07096	+7.28%	0.0509	✗	0.66
2026-09-19	oos	0.06551	0.065087	-0.65%	0.071135	+8.59%	0.0636	✗	0.66
2026-09-18	oos	0.06518	0.064848	-0.51%	0.069215	+6.19%	0.0410	✗	0.62
2026-09-17	oos	0.06246	0.062079	-0.61%	0.06689	+7.09%	0.0177	✗	0.57
2026-09-16	oos	0.06142	0.061058	-0.59%	0.06365	+3.63%	0.0174	✓	0.57
2026-09-15	oos	0.0632	0.062679	-0.82%	0.068925	+9.06%	0.0422	✗	0.40
2026-09-14	oos	0.062645	0.062509	-0.22%	0.06818	+8.84%	0.0449	✗	0.41
2026-09-13	oos	0.06183	0.061611	-0.35%	0.066145	+6.98%	0.0481	✗	0.41
2026-09-12	oos	0.06403	0.063771	-0.40%	0.06551	+2.31%	0.0055	✗	0.43
2026-09-11	oos	0.064245	0.063868	-0.59%	0.06518	+1.46%	0.0002	✓	0.44
2026-09-10	oos	0.06059	0.060542	-0.08%	0.06246	+3.09%	0.0322	✗	0.40
2026-09-09	oos	0.06193	0.062175	+0.40%	0.06142	-0.82%	0.0014	✓	0.39
2026-09-08	oos	0.06767	0.067708	+0.06%	0.0632	-6.61%	0.0499	✗	0.51
2026-09-07	oos	0.06744	0.067729	+0.43%	0.062645	-7.11%	0.0720	✗	0.52
2026-09-06	oos	0.067405	0.068054	+0.96%	0.06183	-8.27%	0.0727	✗	0.52
2026-09-05	oos	0.068755	0.069362	+0.88%	0.06403	-6.87%	0.0626	✗	0.53
2026-09-04	oos	0.068655	0.069432	+1.13%	0.064245	-6.42%	0.0597	✗	0.57
2026-09-03	oos	0.06963	0.070921	+1.85%	0.06059	-12.98%	0.1241	✗	0.56
2026-09-02	oos	0.06727	0.067476	+0.31%	0.06193	-7.94%	0.0924	✗	0.53
2026-09-01	oos	0.067465	0.067892	+0.63%	0.06767	+0.30%	0.0107	✗	0.55
2026-08-31	oos	0.068375	0.069401	+1.50%	0.06744	-1.37%	0.0316	✗	0.43
2026-08-30	oos	0.06784	0.068685	+1.25%	0.067405	-0.64%	0.0370	✗	0.54
2026-08-29	oos	0.0706	0.071585	+1.40%	0.068755	-2.61%	0.0508	✗	0.52
2026-08-28	oos	0.07148	0.072481	+1.40%	0.068655	-3.95%	0.0664	✗	0.52
2026-08-27	oos	0.07326	0.074822	+2.13%	0.06963	-4.95%	0.0783	✗	0.52
2026-08-26	oos	0.072215	0.073533	+1.82%	0.06727	-6.85%	0.0780	✗	0.50
2026-08-25	oos	0.06901	0.07032	+1.90%	0.067465	-2.24%	0.0342	✗	0.50
2026-08-24	oos	0.072275	0.073499	+1.69%	0.068375	-5.40%	0.0697	✗	0.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.07345	0.074365	+1.25%	0.06784	-7.64%	0.0914	✗	0.54
2026-08-22	oos	0.07444	0.075192	+1.01%	0.0706	-5.16%	0.0713	✗	0.54
2026-08-21	oos	0.09093	0.090469	-0.51%	0.07148	-21.39%	0.2327	✓	0.46
2026-08-20	oos	0.084175	0.083152	-1.22%	0.07326	-12.97%	0.1624	✓	0.38
2026-08-19	oos	0.080745	0.079021	-2.14%	0.072215	-10.56%	0.1517	✓	0.47
2026-08-18	oos	0.078975	0.076419	-3.24%	0.06901	-12.62%	0.1999	✓	0.50
2026-08-17	oos	0.07742	0.074866	-3.30%	0.072275	-6.65%	0.1428	✓	0.53
2026-08-16	oos	0.077985	0.07483	-4.05%	0.07345	-5.82%	0.1363	✓	0.55
2026-08-15	oos	0.07977	0.076323	-4.32%	0.07444	-6.68%	0.1357	✓	0.55
2026-08-14	oos	0.07509	0.072436	-3.53%	0.09093	+21.09%	0.1050	✗	0.56
2026-08-13	oos	0.075375	0.07278	-3.44%	0.084175	+11.67%	0.0673	✗	0.56
2026-08-12	oos	0.07654	0.07391	-3.44%	0.080745	+5.49%	0.0295	✓	0.66
2026-08-11	oos	0.07666	0.073872	-3.64%	0.078975	+3.02%	0.0555	✗	0.63
2026-08-10	oos	0.07734	0.074507	-3.66%	0.07742	+0.10%	0.0320	✓	0.72
2026-08-09	oos	0.074055	0.071921	-2.88%	0.077985	+5.31%	0.1035	✗	0.71
2026-08-08	oos	0.077215	0.075062	-2.79%	0.07977	+3.31%	0.0818	✗	0.71
2026-08-07	oos	0.07789	0.075624	-2.91%	0.07509	-3.59%	0.0144	✓	0.72
2026-08-06	oos	0.08424	0.081325	-3.46%	0.075375	-10.52%	0.0658	✓	0.77
2026-08-05	oos	0.08051	0.077812	-3.35%	0.07654	-4.93%	0.0022	✓	0.77
2026-08-04	oos	0.07671	0.074561	-2.80%	0.07666	-0.07%	0.0337	✗	0.72
2026-08-03	oos	0.07648	0.074326	-2.82%	0.07734	+1.12%	0.0347	✗	0.72
2026-08-02	oos	0.07587	0.07391	-2.58%	0.074055	-2.39%	0.0125	✓	0.69
2026-08-01	oos	0.075195	0.07329	-2.53%	0.077215	+2.69%	0.0303	✗	0.65
2026-07-31	oos	0.07904	0.076966	-2.62%	0.07789	-1.45%	0.0091	✓	0.65
2026-07-30	oos	0.079515	0.077713	-2.27%	0.08424	+5.94%	0.0854	✗	0.68
2026-07-29	oos	0.080195	0.078383	-2.26%	0.08051	+0.39%	0.0196	✓	0.66
2026-07-28	oos	0.07921	0.077501	-2.16%	0.07671	-3.16%	0.0122	✓	0.61
2026-07-27	oos	0.079315	0.077586	-2.18%	0.07648	-3.57%	0.0121	✓	0.62
2026-07-26	oos	0.08704	0.084937	-2.42%	0.07587	-12.83%	0.0971	✓	0.55
2026-07-25	oos	0.08458	0.082558	-2.39%	0.075195	-11.10%	0.0809	✓	0.52
2026-07-24	oos	0.084415	0.082389	-2.40%	0.07904	-6.37%	0.0313	✓	0.51
2026-07-23	oos	0.07593	0.074751	-1.55%	0.079515	+4.72%	0.0647	✗	0.58
2026-07-22	oos	0.08425	0.082675	-1.87%	0.080195	-4.81%	0.0115	✓	0.56
2026-07-21	oos	0.08541	0.083786	-1.90%	0.07921	-7.26%	0.0325	✓	0.58
2026-07-20	oos	0.085835	0.084065	-2.06%	0.079315	-7.60%	0.0472	✓	0.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.09025	0.088027	-2.46%	0.08704	-3.56%	0.0166	✓	0.52
2026-07-18	oos	0.09212	0.089739	-2.59%	0.08458	-8.18%	0.0532	✓	0.77
2026-07-17	oos	0.09172	0.089333	-2.60%	0.084415	-7.96%	0.0590	✓	0.81
2026-07-16	oos	0.091335	0.088846	-2.73%	0.07593	-16.87%	0.1760	✓	0.95
2026-07-15	oos	0.08947	0.08727	-2.46%	0.08425	-5.83%	0.0497	✓	0.69
2026-07-14	oos	0.08738	0.085437	-2.22%	0.08541	-2.25%	0.0193	✓	0.82
2026-07-13	oos	0.094725	0.091941	-2.94%	0.085835	-9.39%	0.1168	✓	1.04
2026-07-12	oos	0.102185	0.098563	-3.54%	0.09025	-11.68%	0.1026	✓	0.99
2026-07-11	oos	0.098305	0.095086	-3.27%	0.09212	-6.29%	0.0485	✓	1.06
2026-07-10	oos	0.10396	0.099862	-3.94%	0.09172	-11.77%	0.0816	✓	0.94
2026-07-09	oos	0.11142	0.105017	-5.75%	0.091335	-18.03%	0.1489	✓	0.99
2026-07-08	oos	0.087055	0.084139	-3.35%	0.08947	+2.77%	0.0276	✓	0.87
2026-07-07	oos	0.08504	0.082621	-2.84%	0.08738	+2.75%	0.0345	✗	0.83
2026-07-06	oos	0.09485	0.091576	-3.45%	0.094725	-0.13%	0.0557	✗	0.80
2026-07-05	oos	0.09236	0.089219	-3.40%	0.102185	+10.64%	0.1335	✗	0.89
2026-07-04	oos	0.09202	0.088891	-3.40%	0.098305	+6.83%	0.0909	✗	0.90
2026-07-03	oos	0.09496	0.091511	-3.63%	0.10396	+9.48%	0.1051	✗	0.89
2026-07-02	oos	0.101225	0.09696	-4.21%	0.11142	+10.07%	0.1141	✗	0.92
2026-07-01	oos	0.13053	0.120004	-8.06%	0.087055	-33.31%	0.3628	✓	1.12
2026-06-30	oos	0.1002	0.094039	-6.15%	0.08504	-15.13%	0.1727	✓	0.91
2026-06-29	oos	0.081245	0.078656	-3.19%	0.09485	+16.75%	0.1192	✗	1.10
2026-06-28	oos	0.08065	0.077526	-3.87%	0.09236	+14.52%	0.1169	✗	0.87
2026-06-27	oos	0.074875	0.072528	-3.13%	0.09202	+22.90%	0.1926	✗	0.89
2026-06-26	oos	0.06701	0.065621	-2.07%	0.09496	+41.71%	0.3331	✗	0.89
2026-06-25	oos	0.07109	0.069452	-2.30%	0.101225	+42.39%	0.3503	✗	0.90
2026-06-24	oos	0.08342	0.080665	-3.30%	0.13053	+56.47%	0.4951	✗	0.81
2026-06-23	oos	0.09949	0.094378	-5.14%	0.1002	+0.71%	0.1070	✗	0.69
2026-06-22	oos	0.094245	0.090531	-3.94%	0.081245	-13.79%	0.0633	✓	0.74
2026-06-21	oos	0.09377	0.089623	-4.42%	0.08065	-13.99%	0.0603	✓	0.74
2026-06-20	oos	0.08845	0.0852	-3.67%	0.074875	-15.35%	0.0759	✓	0.77
2026-06-19	oos	0.097835	0.092493	-5.46%	0.06701	-31.51%	0.2765	✓	0.81
2026-06-18	oos	0.09533	0.089716	-5.89%	0.07109	-25.43%	0.1909	✓	0.81
2026-06-17	oos	0.077795	0.075175	-3.37%	0.08342	+7.23%	0.1584	✗	0.98
2026-06-16	oos	0.076135	0.073587	-3.35%	0.09949	+30.68%	0.3484	✗	1.01
2026-06-15	oos	0.078575	0.075138	-4.37%	0.094245	+19.94%	0.2625	✗	1.01
2026-06-14	oos	0.07155	0.069355	-3.07%	0.09377	+31.06%	0.3391	✗	0.98
2026-06-13	oos	0.0691	0.067098	-2.90%	0.08845	+28.00%	0.2794	✗	0.96
2026-06-12	oos	0.07492	0.071867	-4.08%	0.097835	+30.59%	0.3095	✗	1.01
2026-06-11	oos	0.07312	0.070121	-4.10%	0.09533	+30.37%	0.3180	✗	1.01
2026-06-10	oos	0.06286	0.061462	-2.22%	0.077795	+23.76%	0.1949	✗	0.85
2026-06-09	oos	0.06465	0.063036	-2.50%	0.076135	+17.76%	0.1361	✗	0.85
2026-06-08	oos	0.06474	0.063021	-2.66%	0.078575	+21.37%	0.1773	✗	0.87
2026-06-07	oos	0.07013	0.067467	-3.80%	0.07155	+2.02%	0.0265	✓	0.86
2026-06-06	oos	0.0664	0.064352	-3.08%	0.0691	+4.07%	0.0242	✓	0.82
2026-06-05	oos	0.06214	0.060572	-2.52%	0.07492	+20.57%	0.1793	✗	0.83
2026-06-04	oos	0.06303	0.061228	-2.86%	0.07312	+16.01%	0.1809	✗	0.88
2026-06-03	oos	0.07015	0.067315	-4.04%	0.06286	-10.39%	0.0325	✓	0.87
2026-06-02	oos	0.06498	0.062818	-3.33%	0.06465	-0.51%	0.1125	✗	1.08
2026-06-01	oos	0.07125	0.068375	-4.03%	0.06474	-9.14%	0.0737	✗	1.04
2026-05-31	oos	0.07135	0.068389	-4.15%	0.07013	-1.71%	0.1939	✗	1.12
2026-05-30	oos	0.076975	0.072979	-5.19%	0.0664	-13.74%	0.1185	✗	1.11
2026-05-29	oos	0.07635	0.071672	-6.13%	0.06214	-18.61%	0.0604	✓	1.10
2026-05-28	oos	0.06089	0.058693	-3.61%	0.06303	+3.51%	0.2347	✗	1.15
2026-05-27	oos	0.062215	0.059972	-3.60%	0.07015	+12.75%	0.3290	✗	1.16
2026-05-26	oos	0.062175	0.060094	-3.35%	0.06498	+4.51%	0.2339	✗	1.21
2026-05-25	oos	0.068755	0.066183	-3.74%	0.07125	+3.63%	0.1636	✗	1.12
2026-05-24	oos	0.0685	0.066031	-3.60%	0.07135	+4.16%	0.1282	✗	1.12
2026-05-23	oos	0.07205	0.069142	-4.04%	0.076975	+6.84%	0.1505	✗	1.13
2026-05-22	oos	0.0711	0.06835	-3.87%	0.07635	+7.38%	0.1420	✗	1.12
2026-05-21	oos	0.084	0.078914	-6.05%	0.06089	-27.51%	0.2129	✓	0.87
2026-05-20	oos	0.07665	0.072921	-4.86%	0.062215	-18.83%	0.1220	✓	0.88
2026-05-19	oos	0.07077	0.068309	-3.48%	0.062175	-12.14%	0.0836	✓	0.85
2026-05-18	oos	0.07149	0.069046	-3.42%	0.068755	-3.83%	0.0076	✓	0.85
2026-05-17	oos	0.07044	0.068499	-2.76%	0.0685	-2.75%	0.0049	✓	0.87
2026-05-16	oos	0.07579	0.073393	-3.16%	0.07205	-4.93%	0.0030	✓	0.82
2026-05-15	oos	0.07491	0.072845	-2.76%	0.0711	-5.09%	0.0161	✓	0.86
2026-05-14	oos	0.08692	0.083129	-4.36%	0.084	-3.36%	0.0378	✓	0.61
2026-05-13	oos	0.08883	0.08522	-4.06%	0.07665	-13.71%	0.0910	✓	0.65
2026-05-12	oos	0.11052	0.104351	-5.58%	0.07077	-35.97%	0.3719	✓	0.35
2026-05-11	oos	0.10473	0.09916	-5.32%	0.07149	-31.74%	0.3000	✓	0.45
2026-05-10	oos	0.09826	0.09279	-5.57%	0.07044	-28.31%	0.2447	✓	0.51
2026-05-09	oos	0.09627	0.091296	-5.17%	0.07579	-21.27%	0.1703	✓	0.49
2026-05-08	oos	0.09008	0.086839	-3.60%	0.07491	-16.84%	0.1409	✓	0.49
2026-05-07	oos	0.091955	0.088634	-3.61%	0.08692	-5.48%	0.0260	✓	0.48
2026-05-06	oos	0.088045	0.085901	-2.44%	0.08883	+0.89%	0.0498	✗	0.61
2026-05-05	oos	0.09052	0.087999	-2.79%	0.11052	+22.09%	0.2311	✗	0.61
2026-05-04	oos	0.09472	0.091282	-3.63%	0.10473	+10.57%	0.1226	✗	0.64
2026-05-03	oos	0.09896	0.094549	-4.46%	0.09826	-0.71%	0.0076	✓	0.68
2026-05-02	oos	0.11639	0.110404	-5.14%	0.09627	-17.29%	0.1517	✓	0.59
2026-05-01	oos	0.11018	0.104866	-4.82%	0.09008	-18.24%	0.1666	✓	0.59
2026-04-30	oos	0.11237	0.106509	-5.22%	0.091955	-18.17%	0.1775	✓	0.64
2026-04-29	oos	0.12989	0.122643	-5.58%	0.088045	-32.22%	0.3810	✓	0.69
2026-04-28	oos	0.13847	0.130578	-5.70%	0.09052	-34.63%	0.4248	✓	1.00
2026-04-27	oos	0.136965	0.128842	-5.93%	0.09472	-30.84%	0.3393	✓	1.00
2026-04-26	oos	0.13381	0.126994	-5.09%	0.09896	-26.04%	0.2480	✓	1.00
2026-04-25	oos	0.134675	0.127239	-5.52%	0.11639	-13.58%	0.1023	✓	1.00
2026-04-24	oos	0.122685	0.116806	-4.79%	0.11018	-10.19%	0.0683	✓	1.00
2026-04-23	oos	0.13582	0.127979	-5.77%	0.11237	-17.27%	0.1045	✓	1.00
2026-04-22	oos	0.11474	0.109919	-4.20%	0.12989	+13.20%	0.1988	✗	1.00
2026-04-21	oos	0.13065	0.120926	-7.44%	0.13847	+5.99%	0.1359	✗	1.00
2026-04-20	oos	0.11396	0.105139	-7.74%	0.136965	+20.19%	0.2449	✗	1.00
2026-04-19	oos	0.0862	0.082294	-4.53%	0.13381	+55.23%	0.4225	✗	1.00
2026-04-18	oos	0.09122	0.087258	-4.34%	0.134675	+47.64%	0.4090	✗	1.00
2026-04-17	oos	0.12325	0.114928	-6.75%	0.122685	-0.46%	0.0606	✓	1.00
2026-04-16	oos	0.16615	0.145925	-12.17%	0.13582	-18.25%	0.1124	✓	1.00
2026-04-15	oos	0.085535	0.080487	-5.90%	0.11474	+34.14%	0.3105	✗	1.00
2026-04-14	oos	0.075145	0.071261	-5.17%	0.13065	+73.86%	0.5773	✗	1.00
2026-04-13	oos	0.0657	0.06238	-5.05%	0.11396	+73.46%	0.5837	✗	1.00
2026-04-12	oos	0.059505	0.056517	-5.02%	0.0862	+44.86%	0.3797	✗	1.00
2026-04-11	oos	0.054685	0.052301	-4.36%	0.09122	+66.81%	0.5206	✗	1.00
2026-04-10	oos	0.053855	0.051518	-4.34%	0.12325	+128.86%	0.8176	✗	1.00
2026-04-09	oos	0.05359	0.051176	-4.50%	0.16615	+210.04%	1.1318	✗	1.00
2026-04-08	oos	0.06194	0.059347	-4.19%	0.085535	+38.09%	0.3141	✗	1.00