BASED

Based · Ethereum · beta_5y

token id: #838
symbol: BASED
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0x4f2b33840227ddd0e28da8d4185d6fa07adfed87
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-03-30
predictions: 594

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +30d

assessed

168

of 198 predictions shown

direction hit

59.5%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.2553

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0801

actual -0.0918

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	live	0.054285	0.052948	-2.46%	–	pending	–	–	0.90
2026-10-21	oos	0.05086	0.049655	-2.37%	–	pending	–	–	0.81
2026-10-20	oos	0.050125	0.048994	-2.26%	–	pending	–	–	0.86
2026-10-19	oos	0.047365	0.046273	-2.30%	–	pending	–	–	0.84
2026-10-18	oos	0.048835	0.04744	-2.86%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-17	oos	0.05305	0.050682	-4.46%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-16	oos	0.056	0.053009	-5.34%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-15	oos	0.0446	0.043244	-3.04%	–	pending	–	–	0.90
2026-10-14	oos	0.043815	0.042364	-3.31%	–	pending	–	–	0.90
2026-10-13	oos	0.047865	0.046828	-2.17%	–	pending	–	–	0.84
2026-10-12	oos	0.05471	0.053627	-1.98%	–	pending	–	–	0.89
2026-10-11	oos	0.066235	0.064619	-2.44%	–	pending	–	–	0.64
2026-10-10	oos	0.068045	0.065904	-3.15%	–	pending	–	–	0.69
2026-10-09	oos	0.068525	0.066058	-3.60%	–	pending	–	–	0.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.065965	0.063738	-3.38%	–	pending	–	–	0.69
2026-10-07	oos	0.06749	0.065164	-3.45%	–	pending	–	–	0.66
2026-10-06	oos	0.06713	0.065416	-2.55%	–	pending	–	–	0.77
2026-10-05	oos	0.06217	0.061531	-1.03%	–	pending	–	–	0.75
2026-10-04	oos	0.062415	0.061954	-0.74%	–	pending	–	–	0.79
2026-10-03	oos	0.06187	0.061294	-0.93%	–	pending	–	–	0.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.06284	0.062256	-0.93%	–	pending	–	–	0.80
2026-10-01	oos	0.065225	0.064111	-1.71%	–	pending	–	–	0.79
2026-09-30	oos	0.06616	0.064838	-2.00%	–	pending	–	–	0.77
2026-09-29	oos	0.0669	0.065778	-1.68%	–	pending	–	–	0.61
2026-09-28	oos	0.06719	0.066138	-1.57%	–	pending	–	–	0.75
2026-09-27	oos	0.07096	0.069745	-1.71%	–	pending	–	–	0.54
2026-09-26	oos	0.071135	0.069955	-1.66%	–	pending	–	–	0.54
2026-09-25	oos	0.069215	0.068338	-1.27%	–	pending	–	–	0.51
2026-09-24	oos	0.06689	0.066619	-0.40%	–	pending	–	–	0.51
2026-09-23	oos	0.06365	0.064107	+0.72%	–	pending	–	–	0.51
2026-09-22	oos	0.068925	0.069327	+0.58%	0.054285	-21.24%	0.2315	✗	0.56
2026-09-21	oos	0.06818	0.069007	+1.21%	0.05086	-25.40%	0.2733	✗	0.69
2026-09-20	oos	0.066145	0.066093	-0.08%	0.050125	-24.22%	0.2908	✓	0.66
2026-09-19	oos	0.06551	0.065648	+0.21%	0.047365	-27.70%	0.3313	✗	0.66
2026-09-18	oos	0.06518	0.06529	+0.17%	0.048835	-25.08%	0.2990	✗	0.62
2026-09-17	oos	0.06246	0.061853	-0.97%	0.05305	-15.07%	0.1899	✓	0.57
2026-09-16	oos	0.06142	0.060933	-0.79%	0.056	-8.82%	0.1235	✓	0.57
2026-09-15	oos	0.0632	0.062163	-1.64%	0.0446	-29.43%	0.3654	✓	0.40
2026-09-14	oos	0.062645	0.062619	-0.04%	0.043815	-30.06%	0.3745	✓	0.41
2026-09-13	oos	0.06183	0.061497	-0.54%	0.047865	-22.59%	0.2833	✓	0.41
2026-09-12	oos	0.06403	0.063589	-0.69%	0.05471	-14.56%	0.1745	✓	0.43
2026-09-11	oos	0.064245	0.063891	-0.55%	0.066235	+3.10%	0.0004	✓	0.44
2026-09-10	oos	0.06059	0.060474	-0.19%	0.068045	+12.30%	0.0859	✗	0.40
2026-09-09	oos	0.06193	0.062707	+1.25%	0.068525	+10.65%	0.0680	✓	0.39
2026-09-08	oos	0.06767	0.067772	+0.15%	0.065965	-2.52%	0.0477	✗	0.51
2026-09-07	oos	0.06744	0.068304	+1.28%	0.06749	+0.07%	0.0387	✗	0.52
2026-09-06	oos	0.067405	0.06904	+2.43%	0.06713	-0.41%	0.0604	✗	0.52
2026-09-05	oos	0.068755	0.070318	+2.27%	0.06217	-9.58%	0.1613	✗	0.53
2026-09-04	oos	0.068655	0.070954	+3.35%	0.062415	-9.09%	0.1751	✗	0.57
2026-09-03	oos	0.06963	0.073378	+5.38%	0.06187	-11.14%	0.1939	✗	0.56
2026-09-02	oos	0.06727	0.068088	+1.22%	0.06284	-6.59%	0.1275	✗	0.53
2026-09-01	oos	0.067465	0.068845	+2.05%	0.065225	-3.32%	0.1045	✗	0.55
2026-08-31	oos	0.068375	0.071844	+5.07%	0.06616	-3.24%	0.1089	✗	0.43
2026-08-30	oos	0.06784	0.070879	+4.48%	0.0669	-1.39%	0.0975	✗	0.54
2026-08-29	oos	0.0706	0.074249	+5.17%	0.06719	-4.83%	0.1333	✗	0.52
2026-08-28	oos	0.07148	0.075735	+5.95%	0.07096	-0.73%	0.1079	✗	0.52
2026-08-27	oos	0.07326	0.080338	+9.66%	0.071135	-2.90%	0.1478	✗	0.52
2026-08-26	oos	0.072215	0.079229	+9.71%	0.069215	-4.15%	0.1662	✗	0.50
2026-08-25	oos	0.06901	0.075749	+9.77%	0.06689	-3.07%	0.1603	✗	0.50
2026-08-24	oos	0.072275	0.079007	+9.31%	0.06365	-11.93%	0.2484	✗	0.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.07345	0.078905	+7.43%	0.068925	-6.16%	0.1911	✗	0.54
2026-08-22	oos	0.07444	0.079218	+6.42%	0.06818	-8.41%	0.2136	✗	0.54
2026-08-21	oos	0.09093	0.093763	+3.12%	0.066145	-27.26%	0.3653	✗	0.46
2026-08-20	oos	0.084175	0.082879	-1.54%	0.06551	-22.17%	0.2754	✓	0.38
2026-08-19	oos	0.080745	0.076833	-4.85%	0.06518	-19.28%	0.2370	✓	0.47
2026-08-18	oos	0.078975	0.072294	-8.46%	0.06246	-20.91%	0.2299	✓	0.50
2026-08-17	oos	0.07742	0.070669	-8.72%	0.06142	-20.67%	0.2285	✓	0.53
2026-08-16	oos	0.077985	0.070137	-10.06%	0.0632	-18.96%	0.2064	✓	0.55
2026-08-15	oos	0.07977	0.071614	-10.22%	0.062645	-21.47%	0.2525	✓	0.55
2026-08-14	oos	0.07509	0.067803	-9.70%	0.06183	-17.66%	0.2036	✓	0.56
2026-08-13	oos	0.075375	0.068156	-9.58%	0.06403	-15.05%	0.1720	✓	0.56
2026-08-12	oos	0.07654	0.06921	-9.58%	0.064245	-16.06%	0.2052	✓	0.66
2026-08-11	oos	0.07666	0.069154	-9.79%	0.06059	-20.96%	0.2501	✓	0.63
2026-08-10	oos	0.07734	0.069937	-9.57%	0.06193	-19.93%	0.2678	✓	0.72
2026-08-09	oos	0.074055	0.0679	-8.31%	0.06767	-8.62%	0.1394	✓	0.71
2026-08-08	oos	0.077215	0.071157	-7.85%	0.06744	-12.66%	0.1939	✓	0.71
2026-08-07	oos	0.07789	0.071738	-7.90%	0.067405	-13.46%	0.2152	✓	0.72
2026-08-06	oos	0.08424	0.076655	-9.00%	0.068755	-18.38%	0.2753	✓	0.77
2026-08-05	oos	0.08051	0.073579	-8.61%	0.068655	-14.72%	0.2305	✓	0.77
2026-08-04	oos	0.07671	0.070549	-8.03%	0.06963	-9.23%	0.1856	✓	0.72
2026-08-03	oos	0.07648	0.070277	-8.11%	0.06727	-12.04%	0.1850	✓	0.72
2026-08-02	oos	0.07587	0.069981	-7.76%	0.067465	-11.08%	0.1725	✓	0.69
2026-08-01	oos	0.075195	0.069276	-7.87%	0.068375	-9.07%	0.1595	✓	0.65
2026-07-31	oos	0.07904	0.07281	-7.88%	0.06784	-14.17%	0.2084	✓	0.65
2026-07-30	oos	0.079515	0.074243	-6.63%	0.0706	-11.21%	0.1790	✓	0.68
2026-07-29	oos	0.080195	0.074796	-6.73%	0.07148	-10.87%	0.1747	✓	0.66
2026-07-28	oos	0.07921	0.07418	-6.35%	0.07326	-7.51%	0.1519	✓	0.61
2026-07-27	oos	0.079315	0.074189	-6.46%	0.072215	-8.95%	0.1604	✓	0.62
2026-07-26	oos	0.08704	0.081494	-6.37%	0.06901	-20.71%	0.2676	✓	0.55
2026-07-25	oos	0.08458	0.07925	-6.30%	0.072275	-14.55%	0.1988	✓	0.52
2026-07-24	oos	0.084415	0.079113	-6.28%	0.07345	-12.99%	0.1733	✓	0.51
2026-07-23	oos	0.07593	0.072563	-4.43%	0.07444	-1.96%	0.0725	✓	0.58
2026-07-22	oos	0.08425	0.080063	-4.97%	0.09093	+7.93%	0.0316	✓	0.56
2026-07-21	oos	0.08541	0.081199	-4.93%	0.084175	-1.45%	0.0179	✓	0.58
2026-07-20	oos	0.085835	0.081115	-5.50%	0.080745	-5.93%	0.0329	✓	0.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.09025	0.084348	-6.54%	0.078975	-12.49%	0.0658	✓	0.52
2026-07-18	oos	0.09212	0.085857	-6.80%	0.07742	-15.96%	0.0996	✓	0.77
2026-07-17	oos	0.09172	0.085511	-6.77%	0.077985	-14.97%	0.0787	✓	0.81
2026-07-16	oos	0.091335	0.085078	-6.85%	0.07977	-12.66%	0.0531	✓	0.95
2026-07-15	oos	0.08947	0.083873	-6.26%	0.07509	-16.07%	0.0918	✓	0.69
2026-07-14	oos	0.08738	0.08226	-5.86%	0.075375	-13.74%	0.0675	✓	0.82
2026-07-13	oos	0.094725	0.087262	-7.88%	0.07654	-19.20%	0.1501	✓	1.04
2026-07-12	oos	0.102185	0.093149	-8.84%	0.07666	-24.98%	0.1916	✓	0.99
2026-07-11	oos	0.098305	0.090036	-8.41%	0.07734	-21.33%	0.1543	✓	1.06
2026-07-10	oos	0.10396	0.094102	-9.48%	0.074055	-28.77%	0.2501	✓	0.94
2026-07-09	oos	0.11142	0.098588	-11.52%	0.077215	-30.70%	0.2712	✓	0.99
2026-07-08	oos	0.087055	0.079969	-8.14%	0.07789	-10.53%	0.0626	✓	0.87
2026-07-07	oos	0.08504	0.078694	-7.46%	0.08424	-0.94%	0.0559	✓	0.83
2026-07-06	oos	0.09485	0.086971	-8.31%	0.08051	-15.12%	0.0846	✓	0.80
2026-07-05	oos	0.09236	0.085016	-7.95%	0.07671	-16.94%	0.1093	✓	0.89
2026-07-04	oos	0.09202	0.08467	-7.99%	0.07648	-16.89%	0.1071	✓	0.90
2026-07-03	oos	0.09496	0.086834	-8.56%	0.07587	-20.10%	0.1487	✓	0.89
2026-07-02	oos	0.101225	0.091359	-9.75%	0.075195	-25.71%	0.2136	✓	0.92
2026-07-01	oos	0.13053	0.111461	-14.61%	0.07904	-39.45%	0.3961	✓	1.12
2026-06-30	oos	0.1002	0.088426	-11.75%	0.079515	-20.64%	0.1983	✓	0.91
2026-06-29	oos	0.081245	0.0749	-7.81%	0.080195	-1.29%	0.0022	✓	1.10
2026-06-28	oos	0.08065	0.073735	-8.57%	0.07921	-1.79%	0.0099	✓	0.87
2026-06-27	oos	0.074875	0.069035	-7.80%	0.079315	+5.93%	0.0848	✗	0.89
2026-06-26	oos	0.06701	0.062686	-6.45%	0.08704	+29.89%	0.2526	✗	0.89
2026-06-25	oos	0.07109	0.066023	-7.13%	0.08458	+18.98%	0.1812	✗	0.90
2026-06-24	oos	0.08342	0.075836	-9.09%	0.084415	+1.19%	0.0668	✓	0.81
2026-06-23	oos	0.09949	0.087792	-11.76%	0.07593	-23.68%	0.1712	✓	0.69
2026-06-22	oos	0.094245	0.084507	-10.33%	0.08425	-10.61%	0.0272	✓	0.74
2026-06-21	oos	0.09377	0.083511	-10.94%	0.08541	-8.92%	0.0148	✓	0.74
2026-06-20	oos	0.08845	0.079706	-9.89%	0.085835	-2.96%	0.0623	✓	0.77
2026-06-19	oos	0.097835	0.085537	-12.57%	0.09025	-7.75%	0.0383	✓	0.81
2026-06-18	oos	0.09533	0.082924	-13.01%	0.09212	-3.37%	0.0809	✓	0.81
2026-06-17	oos	0.077795	0.070867	-8.91%	0.09172	+17.90%	0.2664	✗	0.98
2026-06-16	oos	0.076135	0.069483	-8.74%	0.091335	+19.96%	0.3023	✗	1.01
2026-06-15	oos	0.078575	0.070729	-9.99%	0.08947	+13.87%	0.2590	✗	1.01
2026-06-14	oos	0.07155	0.065706	-8.17%	0.08738	+22.12%	0.2958	✗	0.98
2026-06-13	oos	0.0691	0.063572	-8.00%	0.094725	+37.08%	0.4317	✗	0.96
2026-06-12	oos	0.07492	0.06731	-10.16%	0.102185	+36.39%	0.4143	✗	1.01
2026-06-11	oos	0.07312	0.065777	-10.04%	0.098305	+34.44%	0.3985	✗	1.01
2026-06-10	oos	0.06286	0.058435	-7.04%	0.10396	+65.38%	0.5396	✗	0.85
2026-06-09	oos	0.06465	0.059679	-7.69%	0.11142	+72.34%	0.6040	✗	0.85
2026-06-08	oos	0.06474	0.059519	-8.06%	0.087055	+34.47%	0.3917	✗	0.87
2026-06-07	oos	0.07013	0.062945	-10.25%	0.08504	+21.26%	0.3006	✗	0.86
2026-06-06	oos	0.0664	0.06018	-9.37%	0.09485	+42.85%	0.4135	✗	0.82
2026-06-05	oos	0.06214	0.056836	-8.53%	0.09236	+48.63%	0.4517	✗	0.83
2026-06-04	oos	0.06303	0.057188	-9.27%	0.09202	+45.99%	0.4857	✗	0.88
2026-06-03	oos	0.07015	0.062129	-11.43%	0.09496	+35.37%	0.4452	✗	0.87
2026-06-02	oos	0.06498	0.058249	-10.36%	0.101225	+55.78%	0.6399	✗	1.08
2026-06-01	oos	0.07125	0.063222	-11.27%	0.13053	+83.20%	0.9060	✗	1.04
2026-05-31	oos	0.07135	0.063204	-11.42%	0.1002	+40.43%	0.7176	✗	1.12
2026-05-30	oos	0.076975	0.066946	-13.03%	0.081245	+5.55%	0.4191	✗	1.11
2026-05-29	oos	0.07635	0.065727	-13.91%	0.08065	+5.63%	0.4363	✗	1.10
2026-05-28	oos	0.06089	0.054004	-11.31%	0.074875	+22.97%	0.5624	✗	1.15
2026-05-27	oos	0.062215	0.055184	-11.30%	0.06701	+7.71%	0.4418	✗	1.16
2026-05-26	oos	0.062175	0.05542	-10.86%	0.07109	+14.34%	0.5379	✗	1.21
2026-05-25	oos	0.068755	0.061074	-11.17%	0.08342	+21.33%	0.5775	✗	1.12
2026-05-24	oos	0.0685	0.060898	-11.10%	0.09949	+45.24%	0.7222	✗	1.12
2026-05-23	oos	0.07205	0.063538	-11.81%	0.094245	+30.80%	0.5985	✗	1.13
2026-05-22	oos	0.0711	0.062661	-11.87%	0.09377	+31.88%	0.6010	✗	1.12
2026-05-21	oos	0.084	0.071444	-14.95%	0.08845	+5.30%	0.3773	✗	0.87
2026-05-20	oos	0.07665	0.066338	-13.45%	0.097835	+27.64%	0.5644	✗	0.88
2026-05-19	oos	0.07077	0.062408	-11.82%	0.09533	+34.70%	0.5926	✗	0.85
2026-05-18	oos	0.07149	0.063083	-11.76%	0.077795	+8.82%	0.3599	✗	0.85
2026-05-17	oos	0.07044	0.0626	-11.13%	0.076135	+8.08%	0.3393	✗	0.87
2026-05-16	oos	0.07579	0.066813	-11.84%	0.078575	+3.67%	0.2976	✗	0.82
2026-05-15	oos	0.07491	0.066116	-11.74%	0.07155	-4.49%	0.2386	✗	0.86
2026-05-14	oos	0.08692	0.074985	-13.73%	0.0691	-20.50%	0.0593	✓	0.61
2026-05-13	oos	0.08883	0.076739	-13.61%	0.07492	-15.66%	0.1198	✓	0.65
2026-05-12	oos	0.11052	0.094543	-14.46%	0.07312	-33.84%	0.1749	✓	0.35
2026-05-11	oos	0.10473	0.089788	-14.27%	0.06286	-39.98%	0.2282	✓	0.45
2026-05-10	oos	0.09826	0.084047	-14.47%	0.06465	-34.21%	0.1149	✓	0.51
2026-05-09	oos	0.09627	0.082261	-14.55%	0.06474	-32.75%	0.1185	✓	0.49
2026-05-08	oos	0.09008	0.077966	-13.45%	0.07013	-22.15%	0.0089	✓	0.49
2026-05-07	oos	0.091955	0.079971	-13.03%	0.0664	-27.79%	0.0538	✓	0.48
2026-05-06	oos	0.088045	0.077802	-11.63%	0.06214	-29.42%	0.0499	✓	0.61
2026-05-05	oos	0.09052	0.080275	-11.32%	0.06303	-30.37%	0.0974	✓	0.61
2026-05-04	oos	0.09472	0.083538	-11.81%	0.07015	-25.94%	0.0339	✓	0.64
2026-05-03	oos	0.09896	0.086378	-12.71%	0.06498	-34.34%	0.1725	✓	0.68
2026-05-02	oos	0.11639	0.101456	-12.83%	0.07125	-38.78%	0.2950	✓	0.59
2026-05-01	oos	0.11018	0.096058	-12.82%	0.07135	-35.24%	0.2611	✓	0.59
2026-04-30	oos	0.11237	0.096814	-13.84%	0.076975	-31.50%	0.2075	✓	0.64
2026-04-29	oos	0.12989	0.111241	-14.36%	0.07635	-41.22%	0.3544	✓	0.69
2026-04-28	oos	0.13847	0.118643	-14.32%	0.06089	-56.03%	0.6296	✓	1.00
2026-04-27	oos	0.136965	0.118243	-13.67%	0.062215	-54.58%	0.6019	✓	1.00
2026-04-26	oos	0.13381	0.11755	-12.15%	0.062175	-53.53%	0.6000	✓	1.00
2026-04-25	oos	0.134675	0.117232	-12.95%	0.068755	-48.95%	0.5284	✓	1.00
2026-04-24	oos	0.122685	0.108079	-11.91%	0.0685	-44.17%	0.4497	✓	1.00
2026-04-23	oos	0.13582	0.119465	-12.04%	0.07205	-46.95%	0.4846	✓	1.00
2026-04-22	oos	0.11474	0.10346	-9.83%	0.0711	-38.03%	0.3391	✓	1.00
2026-04-21	oos	0.13065	0.112324	-14.03%	0.084	-35.71%	0.3062	✓	1.00
2026-04-20	oos	0.11396	0.098145	-13.88%	0.07665	-32.74%	0.2682	✓	1.00
2026-04-19	oos	0.0862	0.076357	-11.42%	0.07077	-17.90%	0.1151	✓	1.00
2026-04-18	oos	0.09122	0.08169	-10.45%	0.07149	-21.63%	0.1492	✓	1.00
2026-04-17	oos	0.12325	0.107106	-13.10%	0.07044	-42.85%	0.4231	✓	1.00
2026-04-16	oos	0.16615	0.131931	-20.60%	0.07579	-54.38%	0.5927	✓	1.00
2026-04-15	oos	0.085535	0.075407	-11.84%	0.07491	-12.42%	0.0615	✓	1.00
2026-04-14	oos	0.075145	0.06696	-10.89%	0.08692	+15.67%	0.1719	✗	1.00
2026-04-13	oos	0.0657	0.059218	-9.87%	0.08883	+35.21%	0.3425	✗	1.00
2026-04-12	oos	0.059505	0.052402	-11.94%	0.11052	+85.73%	0.6174	✗	1.00
2026-04-11	oos	0.054685	0.048927	-10.53%	0.10473	+91.52%	0.6493	✗	1.00
2026-04-10	oos	0.053855	0.048158	-10.58%	0.09826	+82.45%	0.5944	✗	1.00
2026-04-09	oos	0.05359	0.047575	-11.22%	0.09627	+79.64%	0.5885	✗	1.00
2026-04-08	oos	0.06194	0.055727	-10.03%	0.09008	+45.43%	0.3597	✗	1.00