BASED

Based · Ethereum · beta_5y

token id: #838
symbol: BASED
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0x4f2b33840227ddd0e28da8d4185d6fa07adfed87
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-03-30
predictions: 594

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +1d

assessed

197

of 198 predictions shown

direction hit

53.3%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0600

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0077

actual -0.0012

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	live	0.054285	0.054016	-0.50%	–	pending	–	–	0.90
2026-10-21	oos	0.05086	0.050654	-0.40%	0.054285	-0.07%	0.0015	✓	0.81
2026-10-20	oos	0.050125	0.049912	-0.43%	0.05086	+1.47%	0.0213	✗	0.86
2026-10-19	oos	0.047365	0.047228	-0.29%	0.050125	+5.83%	0.0483	✗	0.84
2026-10-18	oos	0.048835	0.048669	-0.34%	0.047365	-3.01%	0.0254	✓	0.83
2026-10-17	oos	0.05305	0.052662	-0.73%	0.048835	-7.95%	0.0818	✓	0.83
2026-10-16	oos	0.056	0.05536	-1.14%	0.05305	-5.27%	0.0414	✓	0.83
2026-10-15	oos	0.0446	0.044492	-0.24%	0.056	+25.56%	0.2369	✗	0.90
2026-10-14	oos	0.043815	0.043744	-0.16%	0.0446	+1.79%	0.0133	✗	0.90
2026-10-13	oos	0.047865	0.047805	-0.12%	0.043815	-8.46%	0.0715	✓	0.84
2026-10-12	oos	0.05471	0.054613	-0.18%	0.047865	-12.51%	0.1465	✓	0.89
2026-10-11	oos	0.066235	0.065988	-0.37%	0.05471	-17.40%	0.1724	✓	0.64
2026-10-10	oos	0.068045	0.067742	-0.45%	0.066235	-2.66%	0.0288	✓	0.69
2026-10-09	oos	0.068525	0.068177	-0.51%	0.068045	-0.70%	0.0050	✓	0.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.065965	0.065595	-0.56%	0.068525	+3.88%	0.0366	✗	0.69
2026-10-07	oos	0.06749	0.067027	-0.69%	0.065965	-2.26%	0.0033	✓	0.66
2026-10-06	oos	0.06713	0.06665	-0.72%	0.06749	+0.54%	0.0331	✗	0.77
2026-10-05	oos	0.06217	0.061944	-0.36%	0.06713	+7.98%	0.0822	✗	0.75
2026-10-04	oos	0.062415	0.062193	-0.36%	0.06217	-0.39%	0.0066	✗	0.79
2026-10-03	oos	0.06187	0.061663	-0.33%	0.062415	+0.88%	0.0043	✓	0.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.06284	0.062627	-0.34%	0.06187	-1.54%	0.0144	✓	0.80
2026-10-01	oos	0.065225	0.064972	-0.39%	0.06284	-3.66%	0.0302	✓	0.79
2026-09-30	oos	0.06616	0.065909	-0.38%	0.065225	-1.41%	0.0222	✓	0.77
2026-09-29	oos	0.0669	0.066628	-0.41%	0.06616	-1.11%	0.0065	✓	0.61
2026-09-28	oos	0.06719	0.066943	-0.37%	0.0669	-0.43%	0.0023	✓	0.75
2026-09-27	oos	0.07096	0.070594	-0.52%	0.06719	-5.31%	0.0430	✓	0.54
2026-09-26	oos	0.071135	0.070663	-0.66%	0.07096	-0.25%	0.0039	✓	0.54
2026-09-25	oos	0.069215	0.068901	-0.45%	0.071135	+2.77%	0.0299	✗	0.51
2026-09-24	oos	0.06689	0.06663	-0.39%	0.069215	+3.48%	0.0398	✗	0.51
2026-09-23	oos	0.06365	0.063475	-0.28%	0.06689	+5.09%	0.0524	✗	0.51
2026-09-22	oos	0.068925	0.068632	-0.42%	0.06365	-7.65%	0.0633	✓	0.56
2026-09-21	oos	0.06818	0.067873	-0.45%	0.068925	+1.09%	0.0186	✗	0.69
2026-09-20	oos	0.066145	0.065871	-0.41%	0.06818	+3.08%	0.0081	✓	0.66
2026-09-19	oos	0.06551	0.065229	-0.43%	0.066145	+0.97%	0.0146	✗	0.66
2026-09-18	oos	0.06518	0.064942	-0.37%	0.06551	+0.51%	0.0060	✗	0.62
2026-09-17	oos	0.06246	0.062256	-0.33%	0.06518	+4.35%	0.0131	✗	0.57
2026-09-16	oos	0.06142	0.061214	-0.34%	0.06246	+1.69%	0.0186	✗	0.57
2026-09-15	oos	0.0632	0.062952	-0.39%	0.06142	-2.82%	0.0276	✓	0.40
2026-09-14	oos	0.062645	0.06248	-0.26%	0.0632	+0.89%	0.0253	✗	0.41
2026-09-13	oos	0.06183	0.061658	-0.28%	0.062645	+1.32%	0.0085	✗	0.41
2026-09-12	oos	0.06403	0.063829	-0.31%	0.06183	-3.44%	0.0293	✓	0.43
2026-09-11	oos	0.064245	0.063968	-0.43%	0.06403	-0.33%	0.0007	✓	0.44
2026-09-10	oos	0.06059	0.060453	-0.23%	0.064245	+6.03%	0.0573	✗	0.40
2026-09-09	oos	0.06193	0.061817	-0.18%	0.06059	-2.16%	0.0112	✓	0.39
2026-09-08	oos	0.06767	0.067493	-0.26%	0.06193	-8.48%	0.0850	✓	0.51
2026-09-07	oos	0.06744	0.067291	-0.22%	0.06767	+0.34%	0.0098	✗	0.52
2026-09-06	oos	0.067405	0.067318	-0.13%	0.06744	+0.05%	0.0099	✗	0.52
2026-09-05	oos	0.068755	0.068648	-0.16%	0.067405	-1.96%	0.0216	✓	0.53
2026-09-04	oos	0.068655	0.068564	-0.13%	0.068755	+0.15%	0.0017	✗	0.57
2026-09-03	oos	0.06963	0.069594	-0.05%	0.068655	-1.40%	0.0026	✓	0.56
2026-09-02	oos	0.06727	0.067102	-0.25%	0.06963	+3.51%	0.0105	✗	0.53
2026-09-01	oos	0.067465	0.067335	-0.19%	0.06727	-0.29%	0.0003	✓	0.55
2026-08-31	oos	0.068375	0.06831	-0.10%	0.067465	-1.33%	0.0060	✓	0.43
2026-08-30	oos	0.06784	0.06775	-0.13%	0.068375	+0.79%	0.0030	✗	0.54
2026-08-29	oos	0.0706	0.070495	-0.15%	0.06784	-3.91%	0.0346	✓	0.52
2026-08-28	oos	0.07148	0.071359	-0.17%	0.0706	-1.23%	0.0133	✓	0.52
2026-08-27	oos	0.07326	0.073149	-0.15%	0.07148	-2.43%	0.0071	✓	0.52
2026-08-26	oos	0.072215	0.072075	-0.19%	0.07326	+1.45%	0.0085	✗	0.50
2026-08-25	oos	0.06901	0.068939	-0.10%	0.072215	+4.64%	0.0433	✗	0.50
2026-08-24	oos	0.072275	0.072171	-0.14%	0.06901	-4.52%	0.0420	✓	0.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.07345	0.073332	-0.16%	0.072275	-1.60%	0.0231	✓	0.54
2026-08-22	oos	0.07444	0.074315	-0.17%	0.07345	-1.33%	0.0164	✓	0.54
2026-08-21	oos	0.09093	0.090272	-0.72%	0.07444	-18.13%	0.1853	✓	0.46
2026-08-20	oos	0.084175	0.083713	-0.55%	0.09093	+8.02%	0.0562	✗	0.38
2026-08-19	oos	0.080745	0.080262	-0.60%	0.084175	+4.25%	0.0231	✗	0.47
2026-08-18	oos	0.078975	0.078423	-0.70%	0.080745	+2.24%	0.0056	✓	0.50
2026-08-17	oos	0.07742	0.076888	-0.69%	0.078975	+2.01%	0.0251	✗	0.53
2026-08-16	oos	0.077985	0.077253	-0.94%	0.07742	-0.72%	0.0121	✓	0.55
2026-08-15	oos	0.07977	0.078884	-1.11%	0.077985	-2.24%	0.0099	✓	0.55
2026-08-14	oos	0.07509	0.074547	-0.72%	0.07977	+6.23%	0.0673	✗	0.56
2026-08-13	oos	0.075375	0.074853	-0.69%	0.07509	-0.38%	0.0071	✗	0.56
2026-08-12	oos	0.07654	0.076007	-0.70%	0.075375	-1.52%	0.0085	✓	0.66
2026-08-11	oos	0.07666	0.076079	-0.76%	0.07654	-0.16%	0.0072	✓	0.63
2026-08-10	oos	0.07734	0.0767	-0.83%	0.07666	-0.88%	0.0038	✓	0.72
2026-08-09	oos	0.074055	0.073628	-0.58%	0.07734	+4.44%	0.0596	✗	0.71
2026-08-08	oos	0.077215	0.076751	-0.60%	0.074055	-4.09%	0.0351	✓	0.71
2026-08-07	oos	0.07789	0.07739	-0.64%	0.077215	-0.87%	0.0024	✓	0.72
2026-08-06	oos	0.08424	0.083539	-0.83%	0.07789	-7.54%	0.0774	✓	0.77
2026-08-05	oos	0.08051	0.079845	-0.83%	0.08424	+4.63%	0.0576	✗	0.77
2026-08-04	oos	0.07671	0.076218	-0.64%	0.08051	+4.95%	0.0486	✗	0.72
2026-08-03	oos	0.07648	0.075978	-0.66%	0.07671	+0.30%	0.0030	✓	0.72
2026-08-02	oos	0.07587	0.075413	-0.60%	0.07648	+0.80%	0.0144	✗	0.69
2026-08-01	oos	0.075195	0.074757	-0.58%	0.07587	+0.90%	0.0072	✗	0.65
2026-07-31	oos	0.07904	0.078533	-0.64%	0.075195	-4.86%	0.0428	✓	0.65
2026-07-30	oos	0.079515	0.079037	-0.60%	0.07904	-0.60%	0.0202	✗	0.68
2026-07-29	oos	0.080195	0.079707	-0.61%	0.079515	-0.85%	0.0108	✓	0.66
2026-07-28	oos	0.07921	0.078748	-0.58%	0.080195	+1.24%	0.0177	✗	0.61
2026-07-27	oos	0.079315	0.078861	-0.57%	0.07921	-0.13%	0.0029	✓	0.62
2026-07-26	oos	0.08704	0.086433	-0.70%	0.079315	-8.88%	0.0719	✓	0.55
2026-07-25	oos	0.08458	0.083997	-0.69%	0.08704	+2.91%	0.0272	✗	0.52
2026-07-24	oos	0.084415	0.083818	-0.71%	0.08458	+0.20%	0.0074	✗	0.51
2026-07-23	oos	0.07593	0.075589	-0.45%	0.084415	+11.17%	0.1191	✗	0.58
2026-07-22	oos	0.08425	0.083788	-0.55%	0.07593	-9.88%	0.0896	✓	0.56
2026-07-21	oos	0.08541	0.084944	-0.55%	0.08425	-1.36%	0.0045	✓	0.58
2026-07-20	oos	0.085835	0.085357	-0.56%	0.08541	-0.50%	0.0086	✓	0.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.09025	0.089663	-0.65%	0.085835	-4.89%	0.0479	✓	0.52
2026-07-18	oos	0.09212	0.091492	-0.68%	0.09025	-2.03%	0.0123	✓	0.77
2026-07-17	oos	0.09172	0.091096	-0.68%	0.09212	+0.44%	0.0001	✓	0.81
2026-07-16	oos	0.091335	0.09067	-0.73%	0.09172	+0.42%	0.0097	✗	0.95
2026-07-15	oos	0.08947	0.088888	-0.65%	0.091335	+2.08%	0.0373	✗	0.69
2026-07-14	oos	0.08738	0.08689	-0.56%	0.08947	+2.39%	0.0327	✗	0.82
2026-07-13	oos	0.094725	0.094052	-0.71%	0.08738	-7.75%	0.1180	✓	1.04
2026-07-12	oos	0.102185	0.10126	-0.91%	0.094725	-7.30%	0.0436	✓	0.99
2026-07-11	oos	0.098305	0.09753	-0.79%	0.102185	+3.95%	0.0472	✗	1.06
2026-07-10	oos	0.10396	0.102886	-1.03%	0.098305	-5.44%	0.0403	✓	0.94
2026-07-09	oos	0.11142	0.109289	-1.91%	0.10396	-6.70%	0.0648	✓	0.99
2026-07-08	oos	0.087055	0.086313	-0.85%	0.11142	+27.99%	0.2424	✗	0.87
2026-07-07	oos	0.08504	0.084488	-0.65%	0.087055	+2.37%	0.0442	✗	0.83
2026-07-06	oos	0.09485	0.093986	-0.91%	0.08504	-10.34%	0.0915	✓	0.80
2026-07-05	oos	0.09236	0.091497	-0.93%	0.09485	+2.70%	0.0301	✗	0.89
2026-07-04	oos	0.09202	0.091148	-0.95%	0.09236	+0.37%	0.0061	✓	0.90
2026-07-03	oos	0.09496	0.093976	-1.04%	0.09202	-3.10%	0.0290	✓	0.89
2026-07-02	oos	0.101225	0.099942	-1.27%	0.09496	-6.19%	0.0665	✓	0.92
2026-07-01	oos	0.13053	0.1264	-3.16%	0.101225	-22.45%	0.2502	✓	1.12
2026-06-30	oos	0.1002	0.097996	-2.20%	0.13053	+30.27%	0.2645	✗	0.91
2026-06-29	oos	0.081245	0.080566	-0.84%	0.1002	+23.33%	0.2484	✗	1.10
2026-06-28	oos	0.08065	0.079722	-1.15%	0.081245	+0.74%	0.0089	✓	0.87
2026-06-27	oos	0.074875	0.074271	-0.81%	0.08065	+7.71%	0.0892	✗	0.89
2026-06-26	oos	0.06701	0.066745	-0.39%	0.074875	+11.74%	0.1159	✗	0.89
2026-06-25	oos	0.07109	0.070778	-0.44%	0.06701	-5.74%	0.0592	✓	0.90
2026-06-24	oos	0.08342	0.082804	-0.74%	0.07109	-14.78%	0.1353	✓	0.81
2026-06-23	oos	0.09949	0.098009	-1.49%	0.08342	-16.15%	0.1426	✓	0.69
2026-06-22	oos	0.094245	0.093358	-0.94%	0.09949	+5.57%	0.0788	✗	0.74
2026-06-21	oos	0.09377	0.092693	-1.15%	0.094245	+0.51%	0.0083	✓	0.74
2026-06-20	oos	0.08845	0.087706	-0.84%	0.09377	+6.01%	0.0788	✗	0.77
2026-06-19	oos	0.097835	0.09631	-1.56%	0.08845	-9.59%	0.0947	✓	0.81
2026-06-18	oos	0.09533	0.093657	-1.75%	0.097835	+2.63%	0.0360	✗	0.81
2026-06-17	oos	0.077795	0.077189	-0.78%	0.09533	+22.54%	0.2353	✗	0.98
2026-06-16	oos	0.076135	0.075544	-0.78%	0.077795	+2.18%	0.0475	✗	1.01
2026-06-15	oos	0.078575	0.077622	-1.21%	0.076135	-3.11%	0.0093	✓	1.01
2026-06-14	oos	0.07155	0.071061	-0.68%	0.078575	+9.82%	0.0921	✗	0.98
2026-06-13	oos	0.0691	0.068669	-0.62%	0.07155	+3.55%	0.0222	✗	0.96
2026-06-12	oos	0.07492	0.074157	-1.02%	0.0691	-7.77%	0.0847	✓	1.01
2026-06-11	oos	0.07312	0.072335	-1.07%	0.07492	+2.46%	0.0355	✗	1.01
2026-06-10	oos	0.06286	0.062546	-0.50%	0.07312	+16.32%	0.1273	✗	0.85
2026-06-09	oos	0.06465	0.064294	-0.55%	0.06286	-2.77%	0.0193	✓	0.85
2026-06-08	oos	0.06474	0.064381	-0.55%	0.06465	-0.14%	0.0234	✗	0.87
2026-06-07	oos	0.07013	0.069519	-0.87%	0.06474	-7.69%	0.0679	✓	0.86
2026-06-06	oos	0.0664	0.065951	-0.68%	0.07013	+5.62%	0.0290	✗	0.82
2026-06-05	oos	0.06214	0.061825	-0.51%	0.0664	+6.86%	0.0739	✗	0.83
2026-06-04	oos	0.06303	0.062694	-0.53%	0.06214	-1.41%	0.0303	✗	0.88
2026-06-03	oos	0.07015	0.069535	-0.88%	0.06303	-10.15%	0.0950	✓	0.87
2026-06-02	oos	0.06498	0.06458	-0.62%	0.07015	+7.96%	0.1260	✗	1.08
2026-06-01	oos	0.07125	0.070684	-0.79%	0.06498	-8.80%	0.0137	✓	1.04
2026-05-31	oos	0.07135	0.070777	-0.80%	0.07125	-0.14%	0.0417	✗	1.12
2026-05-30	oos	0.076975	0.076059	-1.19%	0.07135	-7.31%	0.0610	✓	1.11
2026-05-29	oos	0.07635	0.07506	-1.69%	0.076975	+0.82%	0.0191	✗	1.10
2026-05-28	oos	0.06089	0.060502	-0.64%	0.07635	+25.39%	0.2349	✗	1.15
2026-05-27	oos	0.062215	0.061821	-0.63%	0.06089	-2.13%	0.0026	✓	1.16
2026-05-26	oos	0.062175	0.061836	-0.55%	0.062215	+0.06%	0.0304	✗	1.21
2026-05-25	oos	0.068755	0.068297	-0.67%	0.062175	-9.57%	0.0730	✓	1.12
2026-05-24	oos	0.0685	0.068087	-0.60%	0.068755	+0.37%	0.0058	✓	1.12
2026-05-23	oos	0.07205	0.071548	-0.70%	0.0685	-4.93%	0.0483	✓	1.13
2026-05-22	oos	0.0711	0.070653	-0.63%	0.07205	+1.34%	0.0018	✓	1.12
2026-05-21	oos	0.084	0.082863	-1.35%	0.0711	-15.36%	0.1292	✓	0.87
2026-05-20	oos	0.07665	0.075903	-0.97%	0.084	+9.59%	0.1005	✗	0.88
2026-05-19	oos	0.07077	0.070373	-0.56%	0.07665	+8.31%	0.0777	✗	0.85
2026-05-18	oos	0.07149	0.071096	-0.55%	0.07077	-1.01%	0.0027	✓	0.85
2026-05-17	oos	0.07044	0.070194	-0.35%	0.07149	+1.49%	0.0235	✗	0.87
2026-05-16	oos	0.07579	0.075487	-0.40%	0.07044	-7.06%	0.0618	✓	0.82
2026-05-15	oos	0.07491	0.074736	-0.23%	0.07579	+1.17%	0.0245	✗	0.86
2026-05-14	oos	0.08692	0.086413	-0.58%	0.07491	-13.82%	0.1274	✓	0.61
2026-05-13	oos	0.08883	0.088365	-0.52%	0.08692	-2.15%	0.0310	✓	0.65
2026-05-12	oos	0.11052	0.109181	-1.21%	0.08883	-19.63%	0.2011	✓	0.35
2026-05-11	oos	0.10473	0.103542	-1.13%	0.11052	+5.53%	0.0721	✗	0.45
2026-05-10	oos	0.09826	0.096883	-1.40%	0.10473	+6.58%	0.0808	✗	0.51
2026-05-09	oos	0.09627	0.095077	-1.24%	0.09826	+2.07%	0.0236	✗	0.49
2026-05-08	oos	0.09008	0.089455	-0.69%	0.09627	+6.87%	0.0706	✗	0.49
2026-05-07	oos	0.091955	0.091265	-0.75%	0.09008	-2.04%	0.0142	✓	0.48
2026-05-06	oos	0.088045	0.087632	-0.47%	0.091955	+4.44%	0.0589	✗	0.61
2026-05-05	oos	0.09052	0.090022	-0.55%	0.088045	-2.73%	0.0262	✓	0.61
2026-05-04	oos	0.09472	0.094047	-0.71%	0.09052	-4.43%	0.0466	✓	0.64
2026-05-03	oos	0.09896	0.098116	-0.85%	0.09472	-4.28%	0.0464	✓	0.68
2026-05-02	oos	0.11639	0.114969	-1.22%	0.09896	-14.98%	0.1490	✓	0.59
2026-05-01	oos	0.11018	0.10912	-0.96%	0.11639	+5.64%	0.0611	✗	0.59
2026-04-30	oos	0.11237	0.111331	-0.92%	0.11018	-1.95%	0.0265	✓	0.64
2026-04-29	oos	0.12989	0.128428	-1.13%	0.11237	-13.49%	0.1386	✓	0.69
2026-04-28	oos	0.13847	0.136729	-1.26%	0.12989	-6.20%	0.0439	✓	1.00
2026-04-27	oos	0.136965	0.134795	-1.58%	0.13847	+1.10%	0.0405	✗	1.00
2026-04-26	oos	0.13381	0.132041	-1.32%	0.136965	+2.36%	0.0534	✗	1.00
2026-04-25	oos	0.134675	0.132697	-1.47%	0.13381	-0.64%	0.0047	✓	1.00
2026-04-24	oos	0.122685	0.121222	-1.19%	0.134675	+9.77%	0.1028	✗	1.00
2026-04-23	oos	0.13582	0.133205	-1.93%	0.122685	-9.67%	0.0717	✓	1.00
2026-04-22	oos	0.11474	0.113276	-1.28%	0.13582	+18.37%	0.1806	✗	1.00
2026-04-21	oos	0.13065	0.127054	-2.75%	0.11474	-12.18%	0.1260	✓	1.00
2026-04-20	oos	0.11396	0.110623	-2.93%	0.13065	+14.65%	0.1600	✗	1.00
2026-04-19	oos	0.0862	0.08526	-1.09%	0.11396	+32.20%	0.2629	✗	1.00
2026-04-18	oos	0.09122	0.09015	-1.17%	0.0862	-5.50%	0.0192	✓	1.00
2026-04-17	oos	0.12325	0.12023	-2.45%	0.09122	-25.99%	0.2583	✓	1.00
2026-04-16	oos	0.16615	0.157846	-5.00%	0.12325	-25.82%	0.2728	✓	1.00
2026-04-15	oos	0.085535	0.083981	-1.82%	0.16615	+94.25%	0.6779	✗	1.00
2026-04-14	oos	0.075145	0.074073	-1.43%	0.085535	+13.83%	0.1351	✗	1.00
2026-04-13	oos	0.0657	0.064725	-1.48%	0.075145	+14.38%	0.1529	✗	1.00
2026-04-12	oos	0.059505	0.058837	-1.12%	0.0657	+10.41%	0.0595	✗	1.00
2026-04-11	oos	0.054685	0.054197	-0.89%	0.059505	+8.81%	0.1258	✗	1.00
2026-04-10	oos	0.053855	0.053405	-0.84%	0.054685	+1.54%	0.0225	✗	1.00
2026-04-09	oos	0.05359	0.053171	-0.78%	0.053855	+0.49%	0.0038	✓	1.00
2026-04-08	oos	0.06194	0.061427	-0.83%	0.05359	-13.48%	0.1464	✓	1.00