ARGUS
Argus · Arc · beta_5y
- token id
- #702
- symbol
- ARGUS
- variant
- –
- chain
- Arc
- address
- 0xece5ca8bf9220718e5727754026757512212cb3c
- cohort
- datapoint (mid-window listing)
- first bar
- 2026-09-16
- predictions
- 84
Track record at +1d
assessed
27
of 28 predictions shown
direction hit
66.7%
alpha space; 50% is a coin flip
MAE (alpha)
0.0942
mean absolute log-return error
mean pred / actual
-0.0040
actual -0.0379
History
| as of | split | anchor px | pred px | pred Δ | actual px | actual Δ | alpha err | hit | β90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | live | 0.009037 | 0.008958 | -0.87% | – | pending | – | – | -1.43 |
| 2026-10-21 | oos | 0.008324 | 0.008269 | -0.66% | 0.009037 | +0.60% | 0.0165 | ✗ | -1.71 |
| 2026-10-20 | oos | 0.007332 | 0.007304 | -0.39% | 0.008324 | +13.52% | 0.1259 | ✗ | -1.65 |
| 2026-10-19 | oos | 0.006858 | 0.006849 | -0.13% | 0.007332 | +6.92% | 0.0917 | ✗ | -1.76 |
| 2026-10-18 | oos | 0.005716 | 0.005753 | +0.66% | 0.006858 | +19.99% | 0.1722 | ✓ | -1.68 |
| 2026-10-17 | oos | 0.006867 | 0.006888 | +0.31% | 0.005716 | -16.77% | 0.1743 | ✗ | -1.61 |
| 2026-10-16 | oos | 0.007663 | 0.007676 | +0.17% | 0.006867 | -10.39% | 0.1138 | ✗ | -1.64 |
| 2026-10-15 | oos | 0.0087 | 0.008691 | -0.10% | 0.007663 | -11.92% | 0.1183 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-14 | oos | 0.00865 | 0.008642 | -0.09% | 0.0087 | +0.58% | 0.0001 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-13 | oos | 0.007515 | 0.007569 | +0.72% | 0.00865 | +15.10% | 0.1522 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-12 | oos | 0.00869 | 0.008726 | +0.42% | 0.007515 | -13.52% | 0.1659 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-11 | oos | 0.0111 | 0.011073 | -0.24% | 0.00869 | -21.71% | 0.2190 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-10 | oos | 0.01066 | 0.010665 | +0.05% | 0.0111 | +4.13% | 0.0308 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-09 | oos | 0.01258 | 0.012529 | -0.40% | 0.01066 | -15.26% | 0.1660 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-08 | oos | 0.0136 | 0.013514 | -0.63% | 0.01258 | -7.50% | 0.0820 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-07 | oos | 0.01401 | 0.013893 | -0.83% | 0.0136 | -2.93% | 0.0021 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-06 | oos | 0.01355 | 0.013468 | -0.61% | 0.01401 | +3.39% | 0.0663 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-05 | oos | 0.01396 | 0.013867 | -0.66% | 0.01355 | -2.94% | 0.0207 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-04 | oos | 0.014315 | 0.014209 | -0.74% | 0.01396 | -2.48% | 0.0089 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-03 | oos | 0.01333 | 0.013258 | -0.54% | 0.014315 | +7.39% | 0.0561 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-02 | oos | 0.01549 | 0.015343 | -0.95% | 0.01333 | -13.94% | 0.1434 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-01 | oos | 0.014235 | 0.014126 | -0.76% | 0.01549 | +8.82% | 0.0962 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-30 | oos | 0.01404 | 0.013927 | -0.80% | 0.014235 | +1.39% | 0.0065 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-29 | oos | 0.01468 | 0.014549 | -0.89% | 0.01404 | -4.36% | 0.0346 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-28 | oos | 0.01919 | 0.019072 | -0.61% | 0.01468 | -23.50% | 0.2639 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-27 | oos | 0.0215 | 0.021352 | -0.69% | 0.01919 | -10.74% | 0.0948 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-26 | oos | 0.02402 | 0.023792 | -0.95% | 0.0215 | -10.49% | 0.1018 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-25 | oos | 0.024755 | 0.024415 | -1.37% | 0.02402 | -2.97% | 0.0202 | ✓ | 1.00 |