TOLLY
Tolly · Arc · lstm_s9
- token id
- #737
- symbol
- TOLLY
- variant
- –
- chain
- Arc
- address
- 0xbc43ce8dec648ea298c4275559b81d6261c90b67
- cohort
- datapoint (mid-window listing)
- first bar
- 2026-09-16
- predictions
- 84
Track record at +7d
assessed
21
of 28 predictions shown
direction hit
85.7%
alpha space; 50% is a coin flip
MAE (alpha)
0.4075
mean absolute log-return error
mean pred / actual
-0.0146
actual -0.3931
History
| as of | split | anchor px | pred px | pred Δ | actual px | actual Δ | alpha err | hit | β90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | oos | 0.0017 | 0.001661 | -2.32% | – | pending | – | – | -1.65 |
| 2026-10-21 | oos | 0.001688 | 0.001649 | -2.32% | – | pending | – | – | -1.65 |
| 2026-10-20 | oos | 0.001677 | 0.00164 | -2.22% | – | pending | – | – | -1.70 |
| 2026-10-19 | oos | 0.001597 | 0.001569 | -1.78% | – | pending | – | – | -1.80 |
| 2026-10-18 | oos | 0.001213 | 0.001207 | -0.49% | – | pending | – | – | -1.68 |
| 2026-10-17 | oos | 0.001311 | 0.001307 | -0.32% | – | pending | – | – | -1.67 |
| 2026-10-16 | oos | 0.001335 | 0.001332 | -0.23% | – | pending | – | – | -1.66 |
| 2026-10-15 | oos | 0.001447 | 0.001441 | -0.38% | 0.0017 | +17.48% | 0.1398 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-14 | oos | 0.001505 | 0.001503 | -0.16% | 0.001688 | +12.16% | 0.0867 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-13 | oos | 0.001563 | 0.001555 | -0.50% | 0.001677 | +7.29% | 0.0774 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-12 | oos | 0.001742 | 0.001738 | -0.20% | 0.001597 | -8.32% | 0.0860 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-11 | oos | 0.002234 | 0.002203 | -1.38% | 0.001213 | -45.70% | 0.5766 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-10 | oos | 0.002289 | 0.002263 | -1.17% | 0.001311 | -42.74% | 0.5272 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-09 | oos | 0.002722 | 0.002669 | -1.95% | 0.001335 | -50.96% | 0.6800 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-08 | oos | 0.002247 | 0.002234 | -0.57% | 0.001447 | -35.60% | 0.4396 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-07 | oos | 0.002574 | 0.002537 | -1.45% | 0.001505 | -41.53% | 0.5013 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-06 | oos | 0.002262 | 0.002233 | -1.27% | 0.001563 | -30.90% | 0.3280 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-05 | oos | 0.002414 | 0.002383 | -1.30% | 0.001742 | -27.84% | 0.2653 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-04 | oos | 0.003086 | 0.003029 | -1.84% | 0.002234 | -27.61% | 0.2713 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-03 | oos | 0.003156 | 0.003104 | -1.63% | 0.002289 | -27.46% | 0.2826 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-02 | oos | 0.003975 | 0.003892 | -2.10% | 0.002722 | -31.52% | 0.3340 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-01 | oos | 0.003762 | 0.003691 | -1.90% | 0.002247 | -40.27% | 0.4583 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-30 | oos | 0.003846 | 0.003777 | -1.80% | 0.002574 | -33.07% | 0.3800 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-29 | oos | 0.003944 | 0.003877 | -1.70% | 0.002262 | -42.65% | 0.5613 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-28 | oos | 0.005021 | 0.004924 | -1.92% | 0.002414 | -51.92% | 0.7400 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-27 | oos | 0.005559 | 0.005449 | -1.98% | 0.003086 | -44.49% | 0.5925 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-26 | oos | 0.006251 | 0.006111 | -2.24% | 0.003156 | -49.51% | 0.6647 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-25 | oos | 0.007163 | 0.006955 | -2.90% | 0.003975 | -44.51% | 0.5644 | ✓ | 1.00 |