TOLLY
Tolly · Arc · lstm_s5
- token id
- #737
- symbol
- TOLLY
- variant
- –
- chain
- Arc
- address
- 0xbc43ce8dec648ea298c4275559b81d6261c90b67
- cohort
- datapoint (mid-window listing)
- first bar
- 2026-09-16
- predictions
- 81
Track record at +7d
assessed
20
of 27 predictions shown
direction hit
65.0%
alpha space; 50% is a coin flip
MAE (alpha)
0.4320
mean absolute log-return error
mean pred / actual
-0.0023
actual -0.4158
History
| as of | split | anchor px | pred px | pred Δ | actual px | actual Δ | alpha err | hit | β90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | oos | 0.001791 | 0.001719 | -4.02% | – | pending | – | – | -1.74 |
| 2026-10-20 | oos | 0.001677 | 0.001626 | -3.06% | – | pending | – | – | -1.70 |
| 2026-10-19 | oos | 0.001597 | 0.001568 | -1.84% | – | pending | – | – | -1.80 |
| 2026-10-18 | oos | 0.001213 | 0.001234 | +1.72% | – | pending | – | – | -1.68 |
| 2026-10-17 | oos | 0.001311 | 0.001333 | +1.70% | – | pending | – | – | -1.67 |
| 2026-10-16 | oos | 0.001335 | 0.001364 | +2.20% | – | pending | – | – | -1.66 |
| 2026-10-15 | oos | 0.001447 | 0.001476 | +2.03% | – | pending | – | – | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-14 | oos | 0.001505 | 0.001541 | +2.37% | 0.001791 | +19.00% | 0.1368 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-13 | oos | 0.001563 | 0.001601 | +2.44% | 0.001677 | +7.29% | 0.0483 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-12 | oos | 0.001742 | 0.001779 | +2.15% | 0.001597 | -8.32% | 0.1093 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-11 | oos | 0.002234 | 0.00223 | -0.18% | 0.001213 | -45.70% | 0.5888 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-10 | oos | 0.002289 | 0.002295 | +0.23% | 0.001311 | -42.74% | 0.5412 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-09 | oos | 0.002722 | 0.002694 | -1.04% | 0.001335 | -50.96% | 0.6893 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-08 | oos | 0.002247 | 0.002286 | +1.73% | 0.001447 | -35.60% | 0.4626 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-07 | oos | 0.002574 | 0.002592 | +0.72% | 0.001505 | -41.53% | 0.5231 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-06 | oos | 0.002262 | 0.002314 | +2.29% | 0.001563 | -30.90% | 0.3634 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-05 | oos | 0.002414 | 0.002467 | +2.22% | 0.001742 | -27.84% | 0.3003 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-04 | oos | 0.003086 | 0.003086 | -0.01% | 0.002234 | -27.61% | 0.2898 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-03 | oos | 0.003156 | 0.003166 | +0.31% | 0.002289 | -27.46% | 0.3022 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-02 | oos | 0.003975 | 0.003908 | -1.68% | 0.002722 | -31.52% | 0.3383 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-01 | oos | 0.003762 | 0.003719 | -1.13% | 0.002247 | -40.27% | 0.4661 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-30 | oos | 0.003846 | 0.003802 | -1.16% | 0.002574 | -33.07% | 0.3866 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-29 | oos | 0.003944 | 0.003891 | -1.35% | 0.002262 | -42.65% | 0.5648 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-28 | oos | 0.005021 | 0.004895 | -2.50% | 0.002414 | -51.92% | 0.7341 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-27 | oos | 0.005559 | 0.005401 | -2.84% | 0.003086 | -44.49% | 0.5837 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-26 | oos | 0.006251 | 0.006051 | -3.21% | 0.003156 | -49.51% | 0.6547 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-25 | oos | 0.007163 | 0.006905 | -3.60% | 0.003975 | -44.51% | 0.5571 | ✓ | 1.00 |