TOLLY
Tolly · Arc · lstm_s4
- token id
- #737
- symbol
- TOLLY
- variant
- –
- chain
- Arc
- address
- 0xbc43ce8dec648ea298c4275559b81d6261c90b67
- cohort
- datapoint (mid-window listing)
- first bar
- 2026-09-16
- predictions
- 84
Track record at +7d
assessed
21
of 28 predictions shown
direction hit
61.9%
alpha space; 50% is a coin flip
MAE (alpha)
0.4144
mean absolute log-return error
mean pred / actual
+0.0004
actual -0.3931
History
| as of | split | anchor px | pred px | pred Δ | actual px | actual Δ | alpha err | hit | β90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | oos | 0.0017 | 0.001618 | -4.84% | – | pending | – | – | -1.65 |
| 2026-10-21 | oos | 0.001688 | 0.001604 | -4.95% | – | pending | – | – | -1.65 |
| 2026-10-20 | oos | 0.001677 | 0.001601 | -4.51% | – | pending | – | – | -1.70 |
| 2026-10-19 | oos | 0.001597 | 0.00155 | -2.92% | – | pending | – | – | -1.80 |
| 2026-10-18 | oos | 0.001213 | 0.001237 | +1.94% | – | pending | – | – | -1.68 |
| 2026-10-17 | oos | 0.001311 | 0.001335 | +1.86% | – | pending | – | – | -1.67 |
| 2026-10-16 | oos | 0.001335 | 0.001366 | +2.34% | – | pending | – | – | -1.66 |
| 2026-10-15 | oos | 0.001447 | 0.001479 | +2.24% | 0.0017 | +17.48% | 0.1138 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-14 | oos | 0.001505 | 0.001543 | +2.54% | 0.001688 | +12.16% | 0.0600 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-13 | oos | 0.001563 | 0.001605 | +2.66% | 0.001677 | +7.29% | 0.0461 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-12 | oos | 0.001742 | 0.001784 | +2.42% | 0.001597 | -8.32% | 0.1119 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-11 | oos | 0.002234 | 0.002233 | -0.02% | 0.001213 | -45.70% | 0.5903 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-10 | oos | 0.002289 | 0.002298 | +0.37% | 0.001311 | -42.74% | 0.5426 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-09 | oos | 0.002722 | 0.002675 | -1.72% | 0.001335 | -50.96% | 0.6823 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-08 | oos | 0.002247 | 0.002287 | +1.78% | 0.001447 | -35.60% | 0.4630 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-07 | oos | 0.002574 | 0.002589 | +0.56% | 0.001505 | -41.53% | 0.5216 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-06 | oos | 0.002262 | 0.002312 | +2.22% | 0.001563 | -30.90% | 0.3627 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-05 | oos | 0.002414 | 0.002465 | +2.13% | 0.001742 | -27.84% | 0.2995 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-04 | oos | 0.003086 | 0.00309 | +0.13% | 0.002234 | -27.61% | 0.2911 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-03 | oos | 0.003156 | 0.003156 | +0.01% | 0.002289 | -27.46% | 0.2993 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-02 | oos | 0.003975 | 0.003916 | -1.48% | 0.002722 | -31.52% | 0.3403 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-01 | oos | 0.003762 | 0.003725 | -0.99% | 0.002247 | -40.27% | 0.4675 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-30 | oos | 0.003846 | 0.003802 | -1.15% | 0.002574 | -33.07% | 0.3867 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-29 | oos | 0.003944 | 0.003898 | -1.17% | 0.002262 | -42.65% | 0.5666 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-28 | oos | 0.005021 | 0.004932 | -1.78% | 0.002414 | -51.92% | 0.7415 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-27 | oos | 0.005559 | 0.005452 | -1.92% | 0.003086 | -44.49% | 0.5931 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-26 | oos | 0.006251 | 0.006103 | -2.36% | 0.003156 | -49.51% | 0.6634 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-25 | oos | 0.007163 | 0.006922 | -3.36% | 0.003975 | -44.51% | 0.5596 | ✓ | 1.00 |