2022-02-27 · +30d

lstm_s4 · in-sample — the model trained on this date · 151 tokens predicted

These numbers are in-sample. The model was trained on this date, so predicted-vs-actual agreement here is not evidence of skill.

+1d +7d +30d asset cohort only

rank IC

+0.2765

151 of 151 tokens assessed

long-short decile

+18.43%

realised beta-adjusted alpha

direction hit

57.6%

in alpha space · 4.0% on raw price

BTC over horizon

+25.82%

the unhedgeable market factor

Predicted vs actual (151 rows, sorted by pred)

token	name	chain	anchor px	pred px ▴	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d	vol 30d	target
PEOPLE	ConstitutionDAO	Ethereum	0.0605	0.052121	-13.85%	0.0802	+32.56%	0.0200	✓	1.96	76.7M	2022-03-29
SUN	Sun Token	Tron	0.011286	0.01002	-11.21%	0.014685	+30.12%	0.1244	✗	1.12	25k	2022-03-29
METRONOME	METRONOME		2.23	1.9807	-11.18%	2.7431	+23.01%	0.1289	✗	0.86	26k	2022-03-29
API3	Api3	Ethereum	6.6	5.9628	-9.65%	5.701	-13.62%	0.1280	✓	0.36	2.2M	2022-03-29
FIDA	Bonfida	Solana	1.681	1.5206	-9.54%	1.941	+15.47%	0.0160	✓	0.99	76k	2022-03-29
PRO	Propy	Ethereum	1.81	1.6465	-9.03%	1.6	-11.60%	0.3979	✓	1.61	502k	2022-03-29
CELL	Cellframe	Ethereum	1.541	1.4029	-8.96%	1.6089	+4.41%	0.1938	✓	1.44	262k	2022-03-29
ATOM	Cosmos Hub	Cosmos	26.8	24.4111	-8.91%	30.24	+12.84%	0.0524	✓	1.16	50.3M	2022-03-29
LUNA	Terra	Terra 2	72.51	66.6482	-8.08%	109.12	+50.49%	0.1711	✗	1.40	4.5M	2022-03-29
SANTOS	Santos FC Fan Token	Binance Smart Chain	3.224	2.9732	-7.78%	6.443	+99.84%	0.5183	✗	1.11	687k	2022-03-29
ORCA	Orca	Solana	2.41	2.223	-7.76%	2.31	-4.15%	0.1913	✓	1.00	492k	2022-03-29
SPELL	Spell	Ethereum	0.00404	0.003731	-7.66%	0.0043	+6.44%	0.2802	✓	1.84	11.3M	2022-03-29
BFC	Bifrost	Ethereum	0.15123	0.1398	-7.56%	0.17305	+14.43%	0.0954	✓	1.34	27k	2022-03-29
OGN	Origin Token	Ethereum	0.28	0.259588	-7.29%	0.598	+113.57%	0.5089	✗	1.42	2.1M	2022-03-29
DUSK	DUSK	Ethereum	0.3174	0.294633	-7.17%	0.4589	+44.58%	0.0409	✓	1.75	14.7M	2022-03-29
PSG	Paris Saint-Germain Fan Token	Solana	14.64	13.5902	-7.17%	13.95	-4.71%	0.1398	✓	0.72	2.0M	2022-03-29
BRISE	Bitgert	Ethereum	5.53e-7	5.14e-7	-7.16%	0.000001089	+96.78%	0.5216	✗	1.00	1.3M	2022-03-29
YFI	yearn.finance	Ethereum	19,385.43	18,019.90	-7.04%	23,320.96	+20.30%	0.0229	✓	1.02	5.6M	2022-03-29
NAKA	Nakamoto Games	Polygon	0.4116	0.382633	-7.04%	0.594	+44.31%	0.0373	✓	2.08	2.1M	2022-03-29
ALGO	Algorand	Algorand	0.7983	0.742999	-6.93%	0.9232	+15.65%	0.0685	✓	1.24	21.7M	2022-03-29
GTC	Gitcoin	Ethereum	5.93	5.5212	-6.89%	7.9	+33.22%	0.0142	✓	1.50	1.1M	2022-03-29
ASTR	Astar	Ethereum	0.14	0.130376	-6.87%	0.141	+0.71%	0.1357	✓	0.93	44k	2022-03-29
POWR	Powerledger	Ethereum	0.5151	0.479916	-6.83%	0.5773	+12.08%	0.0398	✓	0.98	643k	2022-03-29
DYDX	dYdX	Cosmos	5.036	4.6953	-6.76%	5.768	+14.54%	0.0319	✓	1.03	189k	2022-03-29
CVC	Civic	Ethereum	0.2684	0.250667	-6.61%	0.3543	+32.00%	0.0120	✓	1.45	398k	2022-03-29
IMX	Immutable	Ethereum	1.412	1.319	-6.59%	2.696	+90.93%	0.4625	✗	1.10	3.4M	2022-03-29
AXS	Axie Infinity	Ethereum	47.98	44.855	-6.51%	64.18	+33.76%	0.0480	✓	1.35	6.5M	2022-03-29
ICP	Internet Computer	Ethereum	17.24	16.1348	-6.41%	22.13	+28.36%	0.0458	✓	1.18	21.6M	2022-03-29
STX	Stacks	native	1.12	1.0494	-6.30%	1.45	+29.46%	0.0244	✓	1.30	610k	2022-03-29
CBK	Cobak	Ethereum	2.379	2.2294	-6.29%	2.707	+13.79%	0.0480	✓	1.05	20k	2022-03-29
MTL	Metal DAO	Metal L2	1.43	1.3416	-6.18%	1.952	+36.50%	0.0907	✗	1.24	1.8M	2022-03-29
NMR	Numeraire	Ethereum	29.13	27.3484	-6.12%	32.72	+12.32%	0.0596	✓	1.04	1.5M	2022-03-29
RIF	Rootstock Infrastructure Framework	Ethereum	0.1447	0.135885	-6.09%	0.1676	+15.83%	0.0380	✓	1.08	420k	2022-03-29
FTT	FTX	Ethereum	41.51	39.0461	-5.94%	51.11	+23.13%	0.0052	✓	1.15	19.7M	2022-03-29
BAND	Band	Ethereum	3.452	3.2537	-5.74%	4.536	+31.40%	0.0208	✓	1.36	1.9M	2022-03-29
ARPA	ARPA	Ethereum	0.0698	0.065806	-5.72%	0.0861	+23.35%	0.0577	✓	1.42	1.0M	2022-03-29
SKL	SKALE	Ethereum	0.115	0.108697	-5.48%	0.2131	+85.30%	0.3627	✗	1.35	2.9M	2022-03-29
DKA	dKargo	Ethereum	0.08363	0.079067	-5.46%	0.1123	+34.28%	0.0907	✗	1.13	45k	2022-03-29
KNC	Kyber Network Crystal	Ethereum	1.897	1.7972	-5.26%	3.4561	+82.19%	0.4959	✗	0.69	2.6M	2022-03-29
CITY	Manchester City Fan Token	Solana	9.35	8.8708	-5.13%	16.06	+71.76%	0.4362	✗	0.69	917k	2022-03-29
XPR	XPR Network	Ethereum	0.00965	0.009173	-4.95%	0.01376	+42.59%	0.0668	✗	1.48	2.7M	2022-03-29
CRV	Curve DAO	Ethereum	2.185	2.0773	-4.93%	2.81	+28.60%	0.0603	✓	1.58	13.2M	2022-03-29
FIL	Filecoin	Filecoin	20.38	19.3773	-4.92%	26.33	+29.20%	0.0165	✓	1.26	8.6M	2022-03-29
SUPER	SuperVerse	Ethereum	0.67	0.637193	-4.90%	0.78	+16.42%	0.2366	✓	1.91	995k	2022-03-29
ACH	Alchemy Pay	Ethereum	0.046151	0.043907	-4.86%	0.045104	-2.27%	0.2478	✓	1.20	8.1M	2022-03-29
ANKR	Ankr Network	Ethereum	0.06333	0.060313	-4.76%	0.08728	+37.82%	0.0716	✗	1.30	64k	2022-03-29
GODS	Gods Unchained	Ethereum	1.31	1.2502	-4.56%	1.49	+13.74%	0.1065	✓	1.23	934k	2022-03-29
QTUM	Qtum	Qtum	5.8667	5.6062	-4.44%	8.3537	+42.39%	0.0666	✗	1.45	184k	2022-03-29
DODO	DODO	Ethereum	0.416	0.397728	-4.39%	0.513	+23.32%	0.0614	✓	1.38	4.2M	2022-03-29
LINK	Chainlink	Ethereum	13.65	13.0582	-4.34%	16.99	+24.47%	0.0274	✓	1.27	52.3M	2022-03-29
DASH	Dash	Dash	88.3	84.4782	-4.33%	130.31	+47.58%	0.1643	✗	1.17	1.5M	2022-03-29
LEO	LEO Token	Ethereum	5.951	5.6962	-4.28%	5.9997	+0.82%	0.0381	✓	0.39	433k	2022-03-29
AUCTION	Bounce	Ethereum	12	11.4939	-4.22%	15.96	+33.00%	0.0829	✗	1.07	331k	2022-03-29
DIA	DIA	Ethereum	0.99	0.948259	-4.22%	1.05	+6.06%	0.0760	✗	0.11	286k	2022-03-29
UOS	Ultra	Ethereum	1.1719	1.1226	-4.21%	1.2858	+9.72%	0.2004	✓	1.46	2.6M	2022-03-29
SHIB	Shiba Inu	Ethereum	0.00002342	0.000022449	-4.15%	0.00002734	+16.74%	0.1125	✓	1.35	3.8M	2022-03-29
AVT	Aventus	Ethereum	2.14	2.0518	-4.12%	2.74	+28.04%	0.0596	✗	1.00	529k	2022-03-29
QNT	Quant	Ethereum	105.8	101.4964	-4.07%	144.61	+36.68%	0.1124	✗	1.05	6.3M	2022-03-29
XEM	NEM	native	0.1	0.095979	-4.02%	0.1222	+22.20%	0.0002	✓	1.05	38k	2022-03-29
PHA	PHALA	Ethereum	0.217	0.208382	-3.97%	0.284	+30.88%	0.1047	✗	0.89	59k	2022-03-29
XLM	Stellar	Stellar	0.181008	0.173824	-3.97%	0.233124	+28.79%	0.0293	✓	1.15	19.2M	2022-03-29
LRC	Loopring	Ethereum	0.7266	0.697844	-3.96%	1.2915	+77.75%	0.2591	✗	1.55	270k	2022-03-29
BAT	Basic Attention	Ethereum	0.66823	0.641819	-3.95%	0.89389	+33.77%	0.0150	✓	1.51	211k	2022-03-29
RLC	iExec RLC	Ethereum	1.6	1.5369	-3.95%	2.3	+43.75%	0.0923	✗	1.35	1.9M	2022-03-29
XVG	Verge	native	0.00923	0.008866	-3.94%	0.01201	+30.12%	0.0003	✓	1.32	1.2M	2022-03-29
DOT	Polkadot	Polkadot	17.5	16.81	-3.94%	22.44	+28.23%	0.0197	✓	1.34	26.4M	2022-03-29
DOGE	Dogecoin	Dogecoin	0.123115	0.118277	-3.93%	0.144391	+17.28%	0.0330	✓	1.01	3.7M	2022-03-29
XEC	eCash	native	0.00007235	0.000069526	-3.90%	0.00009436	+30.42%	0.0305	✓	1.20	4.5M	2022-03-29
UNI	Uniswap	Ethereum	9.77	9.3897	-3.89%	11.25	+15.15%	0.1198	✓	1.31	10.8M	2022-03-29
ETC	Ethereum Classic	native	27.37	26.3172	-3.85%	49.3	+80.12%	0.3659	✗	1.14	5.1M	2022-03-29
ADA	Cardano	Cardano	0.8569	0.824039	-3.83%	1.1909	+38.98%	0.0992	✗	1.17	94.8M	2022-03-29
AGLD	Adventure Gold	Ethereum	1.179	1.1338	-3.83%	1.727	+46.48%	0.1405	✗	1.22	1.2M	2022-03-29
DNT	district0x	Ethereum	0.0675	0.064943	-3.79%	0.0857	+26.96%	0.0320	✓	1.07	163k	2022-03-29
XYO	XYO Network	Ethereum	0.01839	0.017702	-3.74%	0.0204	+10.93%	0.1095	✓	1.09	2.2M	2022-03-29
MED	Medibloc	Osmosis	0.03926	0.037808	-3.70%	0.0491	+25.06%	0.0103	✓	1.09	29k	2022-03-29
BAR	FC Barcelona Fan Token	Solana	6.32	6.0887	-3.66%	9.1	+43.99%	0.2162	✗	0.81	435k	2022-03-29
NANO	nanopay	Base	1.7425	1.6793	-3.62%	2.499	+43.42%	0.1075	✗	1.26	181k	2022-03-29
JASMY	JasmyCoin	Ethereum	0.01609	0.015508	-3.62%	0.03452	+114.54%	0.4174	✗	1.67	12.7M	2022-03-29
PORTO	FC Porto	Binance Smart Chain	2.859	2.7571	-3.56%	4.592	+60.62%	0.2951	✗	0.94	3.3M	2022-03-29
BTC	Bitcoin	Bitcoin	37,717.08	36,385.94	-3.53%	47,454.19	+25.82%	0.0359	✓	1.00	603.6M	2022-03-29
AMP	Amp	Ethereum	0.02689	0.025945	-3.51%	0.02727	+1.41%	0.1345	✓	0.80	4.3M	2022-03-29
TRB	Tellor Tributes	Ethereum	19.91	19.2114	-3.51%	24.45	+22.80%	0.1341	✓	1.63	325k	2022-03-29
OMG	OMG Network	Ethereum	3.8286	3.6948	-3.49%	5.6566	+47.75%	0.1456	✗	1.22	269k	2022-03-29
WBTC	Wrapped Bitcoin	Ethereum	37,686.70	36,374.00	-3.48%	47,265.50	+25.42%	0.0391	✗	0.97	42k	2022-03-29
LAZIO	Lazio Fan Token	Binance Smart Chain	2.8883	2.7877	-3.48%	4.3834	+51.76%	0.2311	✗	0.96	2.3M	2022-03-29
ZRX	0x Protocol	Ethereum	0.521555	0.503507	-3.46%	0.729966	+39.96%	0.0909	✗	1.22	2.9M	2022-03-29
CERE	Cere Network	Ethereum	0.0267	0.025784	-3.43%	0.03123	+16.97%	0.1455	✓	1.47	479k	2022-03-29
ENJ	Enjin Coin	Ethereum	1.377	1.3301	-3.41%	1.75	+27.09%	0.0810	✓	1.55	897k	2022-03-29
ORBS	Orbs	Ethereum	0.0644	0.062238	-3.36%	0.08818	+36.93%	0.0981	✗	1.09	12k	2022-03-29
BTTC	BTTC		0.00000184	0.000001779	-3.31%	0.0000021	+14.13%	0.0049	✓	0.70	14.0M	2022-03-29
DEXE	DeXe	Ethereum	6.06	5.8623	-3.26%	7.08	+16.83%	0.0816	✗	0.47	1.1M	2022-03-29
VSYS	V.SYSTEMS	native	0.01158	0.011203	-3.26%	0.01373	+18.57%	0.0187	✓	0.80	13k	2022-03-29
AVAX	Avalanche	Avalanche	75.09	72.6728	-3.22%	92.79	+23.57%	0.1115	✓	1.55	113.8M	2022-03-29
XTZ	Tezos	Tezos	3.1219	3.0216	-3.21%	3.8004	+21.73%	0.0842	✓	1.37	2.1M	2022-03-29
1INCH	1INCH	Ethereum	1.384	1.3397	-3.20%	1.794	+29.62%	0.0115	✓	1.22	939k	2022-03-29
XYM	Symbol	native	0.141	0.136583	-3.13%	0.1493	+5.89%	0.1051	✓	0.85	299k	2022-03-29
POKT	Pocket Network	Ethereum	0.7935	0.768904	-3.10%	1.1993	+51.14%	0.3191	✗	0.55	1.3M	2022-03-29
CTSI	Cartesi	Ethereum	0.3419	0.331344	-3.09%	0.4224	+23.54%	0.1040	✓	1.51	1.3M	2022-03-29
HIVE	Hive	native	0.8849	0.857815	-3.06%	1.1796	+33.30%	0.0280	✓	1.27	1.9M	2022-03-29
SNX	Synthetix	Ethereum	3.741	3.6265	-3.06%	5.717	+52.82%	0.1490	✗	1.33	2.3M	2022-03-29
ACM	AC Milan Fan Token	Solana	4.06	3.9388	-2.99%	7.21	+77.59%	0.4096	✗	0.85	414k	2022-03-29
MOVR	Moonriver	Base	61.5448	59.7347	-2.94%	71.4386	+16.08%	0.1716	✓	1.53	211k	2022-03-29
MANA	Decentraland	Ethereum	2.5576	2.4829	-2.92%	2.7	+5.57%	0.2144	✓	1.30	3.1M	2022-03-29
UMA	UMA	Ethereum	4.795	4.6555	-2.91%	7.914	+65.05%	0.3011	✗	1.00	1.8M	2022-03-29
BCHSV	Bitcoin Cash SV		81.71	79.3475	-2.89%	97.8	+19.69%	0.0044	✓	0.89	908k	2022-03-29
COMP	Compound	Ethereum	108.08	105.1242	-2.73%	147.68	+36.64%	0.0444	✗	1.29	64k	2022-03-29
LSK	Lisk	Ethereum	1.5293	1.4876	-2.73%	2.6166	+71.09%	0.3271	✗	1.03	69k	2022-03-29
GITCOIN	GITCOIN		5.854	5.6975	-2.67%	7.838	+33.89%	0.0172	✓	1.46	27k	2022-03-29
CHZ	Chiliz	Ethereum	0.1674	0.162926	-2.67%	0.2943	+75.81%	0.2608	✗	1.44	2.7M	2022-03-29
XMR	Monero	Monero	150.62	146.6078	-2.66%	221.94	+47.35%	0.1831	✗	1.01	960k	2022-03-29
STORJ	Storj	Ethereum	0.9359	0.911511	-2.61%	1.351	+44.35%	0.0625	✗	1.44	165k	2022-03-29
OXT	Orchid Protocol	Ethereum	0.2326	0.226573	-2.59%	0.2784	+19.69%	0.0250	✓	1.01	1.9M	2022-03-29
LPT	Livepeer	Ethereum	23.96	23.3474	-2.56%	29.4	+22.70%	0.1192	✓	1.52	1.6M	2022-03-29
SOL	Solana	Solana	85.7	83.5335	-2.53%	111.64	+30.27%	0.0080	✓	1.30	127.4M	2022-03-29
KSM	Kusama	Hydration	117.66	114.7399	-2.48%	184.23	+56.58%	0.1975	✗	1.20	930k	2022-03-29
ZEN	Horizen	Base	32.64	31.8632	-2.38%	49.11	+50.46%	0.0885	✗	1.50	280k	2022-03-29
JUV	Juventus Fan Token	Solana	5.65	5.5158	-2.38%	6.82	+20.71%	0.0205	✓	0.83	430k	2022-03-29
LCX	LCX	Ethereum	0.0773	0.075501	-2.33%	0.1238	+60.16%	0.1265	✗	1.60	633k	2022-03-29
COTI	COTI	Ethereum	0.1985	0.193899	-2.32%	0.2879	+45.04%	0.0409	✗	1.54	2.6M	2022-03-29
TRAC	OriginTrail	Ethereum	0.4426	0.432415	-2.30%	0.6938	+56.76%	0.1388	✗	1.45	521k	2022-03-29
KCS	KuCoin	native	19.035	18.5973	-2.30%	21.714	+14.07%	0.0925	✓	1.08	9.3M	2022-03-29
IOTA	IOTA	IOTA	0.7097	0.693455	-2.29%	0.8635	+21.67%	0.0416	✓	1.14	9.6M	2022-03-29
GRT	The Graph	Ethereum	0.3363	0.328751	-2.24%	0.4882	+45.17%	0.0574	✗	1.47	8.3M	2022-03-29
SC	Siacoin	native	0.00867	0.008479	-2.20%	0.01179	+35.99%	0.0195	✓	1.35	546k	2022-03-29
BNT	Bancor Network	Ethereum	2.17	2.1234	-2.15%	2.76	+27.19%	0.0261	✗	1.03	254k	2022-03-29
CTK	Shentu	Osmosis	1.081	1.0594	-2.00%	1.383	+27.94%	0.0402	✓	1.34	2.8M	2022-03-29
TKO	Tokocrypto	Binance Smart Chain	0.648	0.635138	-1.98%	0.77	+18.83%	0.0788	✓	1.18	2.4M	2022-03-29
SUSHI	Sushi	Ethereum	3.12	3.0584	-1.97%	4.22	+35.26%	0.0175	✓	1.33	6.8M	2022-03-29
ENS	Ethereum Name Service	Ethereum	13.22	12.966	-1.92%	19.21	+45.31%	0.0392	✗	1.54	2.5M	2022-03-29
LTC	Litecoin	Litecoin	103.05	101.1195	-1.87%	130.08	+26.23%	0.0249	✓	1.21	28.8M	2022-03-29
ZEC	Zcash	Zcash	102.66	100.7485	-1.86%	196.15	+91.07%	0.4008	✗	1.16	7.4M	2022-03-29
OG	OG Fan Token	Solana	3.002	2.9472	-1.82%	4.125	+37.41%	0.1209	✗	0.94	477k	2022-03-29
MINA	Mina Protocol	native	1.97	1.9342	-1.82%	2.62	+32.99%	0.0180	✓	1.24	343k	2022-03-29
ETH	Ethereum	Ethereum	2,618.01	2,570.56	-1.81%	3,401.71	+29.93%	0.0311	✗	1.08	525.4M	2022-03-29
MASK	Mask Network	Ethereum	4.21	4.1338	-1.81%	5.74	+36.34%	0.0422	✓	1.61	432k	2022-03-29
BCH	Bitcoin Cash	Bitcoin Cash	304.19	298.8501	-1.76%	373.24	+22.70%	0.0117	✓	1.02	7.2M	2022-03-29
ATM	Atletico Madrid Fan Token	Solana	4.64	4.5672	-1.57%	7.67	+65.30%	0.3406	✗	0.77	483k	2022-03-29
ASM	Assemble AI	Ethereum	0.04436	0.043672	-1.55%	0.05599	+26.22%	0.0513	✓	1.31	703k	2022-03-29
BEL	Bella Protocol	Ethereum	0.812	0.799509	-1.54%	1.065	+31.16%	0.0410	✓	1.43	2.1M	2022-03-29
RAD	Radworks	Ethereum	4.3	4.2355	-1.50%	5.16	+20.00%	0.0344	✓	1.01	696k	2022-03-29
GT	Gate	Ethereum	6.3355	6.2453	-1.42%	6.7628	+6.74%	0.0981	✓	0.77	2.8M	2022-03-29
EWT	Energy Web Token	Ethereum	4.682	4.6186	-1.35%	6.172	+31.82%	0.0954	✗	0.85	65k	2022-03-29
XVS	Venus	Ethereum	8.4	8.2893	-1.32%	11.08	+31.90%	0.0098	✓	1.31	3.2M	2022-03-29
TWT	Trust Wallet	Binance Smart Chain	0.4859	0.47966	-1.28%	1.1997	+146.90%	0.6062	✗	1.35	2.2M	2022-03-29
NCT	PolySwarm	Ethereum	0.03182	0.031462	-1.13%	0.04201	+32.02%	0.0861	✗	0.88	1.3M	2022-03-29
ASR	AS Roma Fan Token	Solana	2.647	2.6178	-1.10%	4.083	+54.25%	0.2529	✗	0.83	213k	2022-03-29
CWEB	Coinweb	Ethereum	0.022401	0.022192	-0.93%	0.036781	+64.19%	0.2705	✗	1.02	114k	2022-03-29
GLMR	Moonbeam	Base	2.358	2.3392	-0.80%	3.305	+40.16%	0.0219	✗	1.41	584k	2022-03-29
BICO	Biconomy	Ethereum	1.197	1.1941	-0.24%	1.69	+41.19%	0.0323	✗	1.37	2.0M	2022-03-29
TRX	TRON	Tron	0.058112	0.058084	-0.05%	0.069428	+19.47%	0.0127	✓	0.83	270k	2022-03-29
AAVE	Aave	Ethereum	131.61	131.8281	+0.17%	222.76	+69.26%	0.1874	✓	1.47	6.5M	2022-03-29

Δ columns are percentage price moves; alpha err and the hit column are in beta-adjusted log-return space, which is what the model actually predicts. “pending” means the horizon has not matured yet. Rows are capped for readability — add &limit=2000 to widen.