2022-02-19 · +30d

lstm_s4 · in-sample — the model trained on this date · 150 tokens predicted

These numbers are in-sample. The model was trained on this date, so predicted-vs-actual agreement here is not evidence of skill.

+1d +7d +30d asset cohort only

rank IC

+0.3103

150 of 150 tokens assessed

long-short decile

+21.00%

realised beta-adjusted alpha

direction hit

64.7%

in alpha space · 57.7% on raw price

BTC over horizon

+2.28%

the unhedgeable market factor

Predicted vs actual (150 rows, sorted by pred)

token	name	chain	anchor px	pred px ▴	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d	vol 30d	target
API3	Api3	Ethereum	7.47	6.2127	-16.83%	4.917	-34.18%	0.2389	✓	0.22	2.0M	2022-03-21
DUSK	DUSK	Ethereum	0.419	0.369504	-11.81%	0.3439	-17.92%	0.1092	✓	1.65	17.3M	2022-03-21
CELL	Cellframe	Ethereum	1.8854	1.6641	-11.74%	1.499	-20.49%	0.1389	✓	1.52	189k	2022-03-21
PRO	Propy	Ethereum	2.16	1.9198	-11.12%	1.59	-26.39%	0.2289	✓	1.79	708k	2022-03-21
YFI	yearn.finance	Ethereum	21,669.76	19,324.69	-10.82%	20,359.40	-6.05%	0.0294	✓	1.01	6.2M	2022-03-21
CRV	Curve DAO	Ethereum	2.81	2.5512	-9.21%	2.196	-21.85%	0.1840	✓	1.51	15.0M	2022-03-21
PEOPLE	ConstitutionDAO	Ethereum	0.0593	0.053914	-9.08%	0.0625	+5.40%	0.1086	✗	1.73	64.3M	2022-03-21
FIDA	Bonfida	Solana	2.186	1.9906	-8.94%	1.687	-22.83%	0.1880	✓	1.00	76k	2022-03-21
SUN	Sun Token	Tron	0.015145	0.013808	-8.83%	0.012814	-15.39%	0.0995	✓	1.10	170k	2022-03-21
SPELL	Spell	Ethereum	0.0051	0.004672	-8.40%	0.00441	-13.53%	0.1015	✓	1.94	13.6M	2022-03-21
GTC	Gitcoin	Ethereum	6.99	6.4201	-8.15%	6.55	-6.29%	0.0116	✓	0.37	1.4M	2022-03-21
POKT	Pocket Network	Ethereum	0.9816	0.906329	-7.67%	0.7969	-18.82%	0.1458	✓	0.76	1.5M	2022-03-21
ATOM	Cosmos Hub	Cosmos	26.69	24.6762	-7.55%	27.93	+4.65%	0.1002	✗	1.05	61.0M	2022-03-21
ICP	Internet Computer	Ethereum	20	18.5309	-7.35%	16.97	-15.15%	0.1141	✓	1.16	23.2M	2022-03-21
ACH	Alchemy Pay	Ethereum	0.059376	0.055226	-6.99%	0.040344	-32.05%	0.3415	✓	1.22	7.5M	2022-03-21
STX	Stacks	native	1.31	1.2196	-6.90%	1.3	-0.76%	0.0350	✓	1.28	845k	2022-03-21
ASTR	Astar	Ethereum	0.135	0.125876	-6.76%	0.103	-23.70%	0.2251	✓	1.09	54k	2022-03-21
BAND	Band	Ethereum	4.93	4.6248	-6.19%	3.749	-23.96%	0.2375	✓	1.22	1.9M	2022-03-21
KNC	Kyber Network Crystal	Ethereum	1.9802	1.8632	-5.91%	3.1635	+59.76%	0.5172	✗	0.54	2.9M	2022-03-21
SUSHI	Sushi	Ethereum	3.87	3.6438	-5.84%	3.31	-14.47%	0.1271	✓	1.38	7.4M	2022-03-21
LUNA	Terra	Terra 2	50.46	47.5111	-5.84%	95.82	+89.89%	0.6697	✗	1.41	5.3M	2022-03-21
FTT	FTX	Ethereum	42.78	40.2982	-5.80%	44.67	+4.42%	0.0767	✗	1.17	28.5M	2022-03-21
AVT	Aventus	Ethereum	2.74	2.5817	-5.78%	2.27	-17.15%	0.1512	✓	1.00	723k	2022-03-21
OGN	Origin Token	Ethereum	0.325	0.306306	-5.75%	0.694	+113.54%	0.7878	✗	1.33	2.3M	2022-03-21
ORCA	Orca	Solana	2.82	2.6582	-5.74%	2.15	-23.76%	0.2347	✓	1.00	698k	2022-03-21
NAKA	Nakamoto Games	Polygon	0.4814	0.453877	-5.72%	0.41	-14.83%	0.1441	✓	1.88	1.9M	2022-03-21
DYDX	dYdX	Cosmos	6.265	5.9117	-5.64%	5.006	-20.10%	0.1884	✓	0.98	361k	2022-03-21
GLMR	Moonbeam	Base	3.675	3.4687	-5.61%	2.763	-24.82%	0.2528	✓	1.12	579k	2022-03-21
NMR	Numeraire	Ethereum	30.94	29.2113	-5.59%	29.57	-4.43%	0.0090	✓	0.94	1.3M	2022-03-21
POWR	Powerledger	Ethereum	0.5485	0.518446	-5.48%	0.5105	-6.93%	0.0358	✓	0.90	741k	2022-03-21
MTL	Metal DAO	Metal L2	1.491	1.4116	-5.33%	1.618	+8.52%	0.1105	✗	1.15	2.1M	2022-03-21
AXS	Axie Infinity	Ethereum	54.84	51.9993	-5.18%	50.17	-8.52%	0.0646	✓	1.27	9.2M	2022-03-21
SKL	SKALE	Ethereum	0.1472	0.139599	-5.16%	0.1326	-9.92%	0.0807	✓	1.30	3.3M	2022-03-21
LEO	LEO Token	Ethereum	5.7961	5.5002	-5.11%	6.1969	+6.91%	0.1107	✗	0.38	441k	2022-03-21
RIF	Rootstock Infrastructure Framework	Ethereum	0.1444	0.137139	-5.03%	0.1524	+5.54%	0.0823	✗	1.03	470k	2022-03-21
AUCTION	Bounce	Ethereum	14.06	13.4002	-4.69%	16.52	+17.50%	0.1861	✗	1.03	483k	2022-03-21
CVC	Civic	Ethereum	0.273	0.260238	-4.67%	0.2933	+7.44%	0.0949	✗	1.09	538k	2022-03-21
SHIB	Shiba Inu	Ethereum	0.0000275	0.000026217	-4.66%	0.00002294	-16.58%	0.1647	✓	1.38	3.8M	2022-03-21
XPR	XPR Network	Ethereum	0.01191	0.011372	-4.51%	0.01178	-1.09%	0.0001	✓	1.56	2.2M	2022-03-21
ALGO	Algorand	Algorand	0.9001	0.86012	-4.44%	0.828	-8.01%	0.0660	✓	1.24	25.9M	2022-03-21
DOGE	Dogecoin	Dogecoin	0.141002	0.134834	-4.37%	0.119184	-15.47%	0.1461	✓	1.01	5.2M	2022-03-21
DASH	Dash	Dash	102.42	97.9802	-4.33%	123.68	+20.76%	0.2079	✗	1.11	1.5M	2022-03-21
ARPA	ARPA	Ethereum	0.0806	0.077108	-4.33%	0.0712	-11.66%	0.1099	✓	1.34	1.1M	2022-03-21
MANA	Decentraland	Ethereum	2.8917	2.7671	-4.31%	2.4089	-16.69%	0.1650	✓	1.17	3.3M	2022-03-21
AVAX	Avalanche	Avalanche	85.07	81.4156	-4.30%	86.26	+1.40%	0.0263	✓	1.39	110.8M	2022-03-21
ADA	Cardano	Cardano	0.9969	0.954341	-4.27%	0.9179	-7.92%	0.0639	✓	1.11	97.3M	2022-03-21
XVG	Verge	native	0.01032	0.00988	-4.26%	0.0099	-4.07%	0.0272	✓	1.29	1.2M	2022-03-21
NCT	PolySwarm	Ethereum	0.03967	0.037989	-4.24%	0.03903	-1.61%	0.0111	✓	0.71	1.9M	2022-03-21
NANO	nanopay	Base	2.071	1.9834	-4.23%	2.212	+6.81%	0.0811	✗	1.24	263k	2022-03-21
FIL	Filecoin	Filecoin	20.82	19.9418	-4.22%	17.82	-14.41%	0.1401	✓	1.22	10.8M	2022-03-21
DODO	DODO	Ethereum	0.489	0.468518	-4.19%	0.419	-14.31%	0.1431	✓	1.39	4.7M	2022-03-21
XYO	XYO Network	Ethereum	0.020617	0.019759	-4.16%	0.01896	-8.04%	0.0671	✓	1.14	2.4M	2022-03-21
XEM	NEM	native	0.1018	0.097569	-4.16%	0.1071	+5.21%	0.0702	✗	1.02	39k	2022-03-21
BTTC	BTTC		0.00000202	0.000001936	-4.15%	0.00000183	-9.41%	0.0790	✓	1.00	14.4M	2022-03-21
CWEB	Coinweb	Ethereum	0.02609	0.025009	-4.14%	0.025644	-1.71%	0.0007	✓	1.14	89k	2022-03-21
IOTA	IOTA	IOTA	0.827	0.792873	-4.13%	0.7443	-10.00%	0.0876	✓	1.08	10.1M	2022-03-21
IMX	Immutable	Ethereum	1.98	1.899	-4.09%	2.141	+8.13%	0.0964	✗	1.04	3.2M	2022-03-21
XLM	Stellar	Stellar	0.204174	0.195873	-4.07%	0.203692	-0.24%	0.0160	✓	1.03	22.0M	2022-03-21
BAT	Basic Attention	Ethereum	0.75237	0.721945	-4.04%	0.81655	+8.53%	0.0897	✗	1.48	334k	2022-03-21
DIA	DIA	Ethereum	1.01	0.969621	-4.00%	0.94	-6.93%	0.0536	✓	1.00	274k	2022-03-21
XTZ	Tezos	Tezos	3.6074	3.4635	-3.99%	3.2407	-10.17%	0.0949	✓	1.26	2.2M	2022-03-21
CITY	Manchester City Fan Token	Solana	9.9	9.5097	-3.94%	13.7	+38.38%	0.3502	✗	0.66	821k	2022-03-21
QTUM	Qtum	Qtum	6.787	6.5195	-3.94%	6.8236	+0.54%	0.0128	✓	1.45	198k	2022-03-21
PHA	PHALA	Ethereum	0.254	0.24399	-3.94%	0.254	+0.00%	0.0195	✓	0.92	73k	2022-03-21
WBTC	Wrapped Bitcoin	Ethereum	39,901.00	38,339.71	-3.91%	41,105.80	+3.02%	0.0476	✗	0.98	51k	2022-03-21
DKA	dKargo	Ethereum	0.08925	0.085777	-3.89%	0.09486	+6.29%	0.0760	✗	1.09	50k	2022-03-21
RLC	iExec RLC	Ethereum	1.82	1.7493	-3.89%	1.89	+3.85%	0.0472	✗	1.34	2.0M	2022-03-21
QNT	Quant	Ethereum	110.71	106.4162	-3.88%	119.55	+7.98%	0.0936	✗	1.01	7.2M	2022-03-21
ANKR	Ankr Network	Ethereum	0.07126	0.068506	-3.86%	0.07422	+4.15%	0.0628	✗	0.76	88k	2022-03-21
CBK	Cobak	Ethereum	2.168	2.0843	-3.86%	2.211	+1.98%	0.0355	✓	1.04	20k	2022-03-21
BFC	Bifrost	Ethereum	0.15998	0.153832	-3.84%	0.15226	-4.83%	0.0429	✓	1.44	32k	2022-03-21
AGLD	Adventure Gold	Ethereum	0.99	0.952013	-3.84%	1.518	+53.33%	0.4381	✗	1.26	818k	2022-03-21
UMA	UMA	Ethereum	5.69	5.4727	-3.82%	7.575	+33.13%	0.3024	✗	1.01	1.9M	2022-03-21
OG	OG Fan Token	Solana	3.281	3.1561	-3.81%	3.851	+17.37%	0.1790	✗	0.89	502k	2022-03-21
PSG	Paris Saint-Germain Fan Token	Solana	15.11	14.5354	-3.80%	12.88	-14.76%	0.1364	✓	0.69	1.7M	2022-03-21
BTC	Bitcoin	Bitcoin	40,101.94	38,578.92	-3.80%	41,017.71	+2.28%	0.0387	✓	1.00	646.5M	2022-03-21
UOS	Ultra	Ethereum	1.1527	1.11	-3.70%	1.1654	+1.10%	0.0201	✓	1.27	2.6M	2022-03-21
LAZIO	Lazio Fan Token	Binance Smart Chain	3.0416	2.9293	-3.69%	4.1232	+35.56%	0.3196	✗	0.99	2.4M	2022-03-21
GODS	Gods Unchained	Ethereum	1.58	1.5217	-3.69%	1.12	-29.11%	0.3339	✓	1.21	1.2M	2022-03-21
XEC	eCash	native	0.00007811	0.000075255	-3.66%	0.00008042	+2.96%	0.0409	✗	1.13	4.8M	2022-03-21
SUPER	SuperVerse	Ethereum	0.85	0.819075	-3.64%	0.64	-24.71%	0.2912	✓	1.97	1.2M	2022-03-21
ENJ	Enjin Coin	Ethereum	1.664	1.604	-3.60%	1.433	-13.88%	0.1435	✓	1.36	1.1M	2022-03-21
TRB	Tellor Tributes	Ethereum	20.48	19.7437	-3.60%	19.75	-3.56%	0.0342	✓	1.53	371k	2022-03-21
ETC	Ethereum Classic	native	28.7	27.6715	-3.58%	38.41	+33.83%	0.3038	✗	1.07	5.2M	2022-03-21
DOT	Polkadot	Polkadot	17.86	17.2229	-3.57%	18.75	+4.98%	0.0546	✗	1.34	32.4M	2022-03-21
METRONOME	METRONOME		2.3136	2.2311	-3.57%	2.3043	-0.40%	0.0114	✓	0.93	28k	2022-03-21
SNX	Synthetix	Ethereum	4.37	4.2158	-3.53%	4.971	+13.75%	0.1372	✗	1.22	2.5M	2022-03-21
CERE	Cere Network	Ethereum	0.03	0.028945	-3.52%	0.02575	-14.17%	0.1498	✓	1.45	499k	2022-03-21
MOVR	Moonriver	Base	84.5568	81.6247	-3.47%	62.2596	-26.37%	0.3041	✓	1.47	305k	2022-03-21
VSYS	V.SYSTEMS	native	0.01266	0.012223	-3.45%	0.01262	-0.32%	0.0138	✓	0.81	15k	2022-03-21
LRC	Loopring	Ethereum	0.8878	0.85763	-3.40%	0.8075	-9.04%	0.0931	✓	1.46	453k	2022-03-21
HIVE	Hive	native	0.9635	0.93108	-3.36%	0.9143	-5.11%	0.0534	✓	1.56	1.8M	2022-03-21
ACM	AC Milan Fan Token	Solana	4.472	4.3227	-3.34%	4.983	+11.43%	0.1239	✗	0.81	395k	2022-03-21
PORTO	FC Porto	Binance Smart Chain	3.0659	2.9636	-3.34%	3.772	+23.03%	0.2198	✗	0.95	2.5M	2022-03-21
SANTOS	Santos FC Fan Token	Binance Smart Chain	2.586	2.5007	-3.30%	6.191	+139.40%	0.8775	✗	1.28	845k	2022-03-21
AAVE	Aave	Ethereum	146.18	141.3909	-3.28%	153.89	+5.27%	0.0526	✗	1.42	6.8M	2022-03-21
AMP	Amp	Ethereum	0.02878	0.02784	-3.27%	0.02617	-9.07%	0.0809	✓	0.84	5.2M	2022-03-21
OMG	OMG Network	Ethereum	4.2985	4.1593	-3.24%	4.8275	+12.30%	0.1222	✗	1.19	330k	2022-03-21
XYM	Symbol	native	0.1581	0.152987	-3.23%	0.1371	-13.28%	0.1253	✓	0.69	362k	2022-03-21
DNT	district0x	Ethereum	0.0784	0.075875	-3.22%	0.0752	-4.08%	0.0341	✓	1.12	194k	2022-03-21
COTI	COTI	Ethereum	0.247	0.239141	-3.18%	0.212	-14.17%	0.1548	✓	1.52	3.7M	2022-03-21
LINK	Chainlink	Ethereum	15.52	15.0274	-3.17%	15	-3.35%	0.0291	✓	1.21	67.7M	2022-03-21
JUV	Juventus Fan Token	Solana	6.41	6.2119	-3.09%	6.22	-2.96%	0.0180	✓	0.86	430k	2022-03-21
CTSI	Cartesi	Ethereum	0.4201	0.407379	-3.03%	0.3415	-18.71%	0.2087	✓	1.43	1.6M	2022-03-21
KSM	Kusama	Hydration	151.15	146.6688	-2.96%	154.99	+2.54%	0.0287	✓	1.17	973k	2022-03-21
UNI	Uniswap	Ethereum	10.03	9.7345	-2.95%	9.35	-6.78%	0.0698	✓	1.31	11.7M	2022-03-21
JASMY	JasmyCoin	Ethereum	0.02516	0.024447	-2.83%	0.03588	+42.61%	0.3526	✗	1.38	10.9M	2022-03-21
MINA	Mina Protocol	native	2.42	2.3519	-2.81%	2.09	-13.64%	0.1453	✓	1.21	383k	2022-03-21
1INCH	1INCH	Ethereum	1.58	1.5357	-2.81%	1.531	-3.10%	0.0308	✓	1.23	1.2M	2022-03-21
BAR	FC Barcelona Fan Token	Solana	5.92	5.7558	-2.77%	8.09	+36.66%	0.3217	✗	0.83	398k	2022-03-21
XMR	Monero	Monero	161.12	156.7673	-2.70%	191.87	+19.09%	0.1791	✗	1.02	1.1M	2022-03-21
CHZ	Chiliz	Ethereum	0.198	0.192653	-2.70%	0.2032	+2.63%	0.0225	✓	1.36	3.5M	2022-03-21
BCHSV	Bitcoin Cash SV		87.64	85.2803	-2.69%	84.98	-3.04%	0.0236	✓	0.89	1.1M	2022-03-21
ATM	Atletico Madrid Fan Token	Solana	5.28	5.1413	-2.63%	6.4	+21.21%	0.2018	✗	0.76	415k	2022-03-21
GRT	The Graph	Ethereum	0.4172	0.406245	-2.63%	0.4118	-1.29%	0.0178	✓	1.39	8.8M	2022-03-21
ZEN	Horizen	Base	38.13	37.1379	-2.60%	43.59	+14.32%	0.1249	✗	1.56	405k	2022-03-21
OXT	Orchid Protocol	Ethereum	0.2512	0.244729	-2.58%	0.2506	-0.24%	0.0012	✓	1.00	1.9M	2022-03-21
KCS	KuCoin	native	19.839	19.3291	-2.57%	18.09	-8.82%	0.0935	✓	1.21	9.9M	2022-03-21
MED	Medibloc	Osmosis	0.04064	0.039597	-2.57%	0.04126	+1.53%	0.0165	✓	1.09	32k	2022-03-21
LCX	LCX	Ethereum	0.0963	0.093854	-2.54%	0.0897	-6.85%	0.0792	✓	1.50	903k	2022-03-21
ASR	AS Roma Fan Token	Solana	2.973	2.8981	-2.52%	3.313	+11.44%	0.1162	✗	0.78	206k	2022-03-21
SOL	Solana	Solana	91.34	89.056	-2.50%	88.62	-2.98%	0.0333	✓	1.26	179.7M	2022-03-21
DEXE	DeXe	Ethereum	7.27	7.0892	-2.49%	6.45	-11.28%	0.0992	✓	0.21	1.4M	2022-03-21
GITCOIN	GITCOIN		6.873	6.7025	-2.48%	6.529	-5.01%	0.0342	✓	0.35	36k	2022-03-21
TRAC	OriginTrail	Ethereum	0.5475	0.534	-2.47%	0.6232	+13.83%	0.1225	✗	1.42	610k	2022-03-21
LSK	Lisk	Ethereum	1.6691	1.6285	-2.43%	2.1544	+29.08%	0.2546	✗	1.12	75k	2022-03-21
BICO	Biconomy	Ethereum	1.57	1.5319	-2.43%	1.608	+2.42%	0.0177	✓	1.36	2.7M	2022-03-21
ORBS	Orbs	Ethereum	0.0679	0.066261	-2.41%	0.07444	+9.63%	0.0920	✗	1.08	16k	2022-03-21
ZEC	Zcash	Zcash	112.33	109.6211	-2.41%	181.56	+61.63%	0.4770	✗	1.22	7.6M	2022-03-21
ZRX	0x Protocol	Ethereum	0.594043	0.580175	-2.33%	0.550176	-7.38%	0.0788	✓	1.14	3.6M	2022-03-21
STORJ	Storj	Ethereum	1.0275	1.0035	-2.33%	1.1049	+7.54%	0.0726	✗	1.05	193k	2022-03-21
RAD	Radworks	Ethereum	5.31	5.189	-2.28%	4.74	-10.73%	0.1138	✓	1.03	682k	2022-03-21
SC	Siacoin	native	0.00967	0.009455	-2.23%	0.00956	-1.14%	0.0122	✓	1.03	504k	2022-03-21
EWT	Energy Web Token	Ethereum	5.766	5.6384	-2.21%	6.034	+4.65%	0.0499	✗	0.79	65k	2022-03-21
COMP	Compound	Ethereum	121.25	118.6071	-2.18%	113.52	-6.38%	0.0729	✓	1.29	66k	2022-03-21
ENS	Ethereum Name Service	Ethereum	16.06	15.7124	-2.16%	15.85	-1.31%	0.0295	✓	1.69	3.0M	2022-03-21
LTC	Litecoin	Litecoin	115.59	113.2989	-1.98%	116.13	+0.47%	0.0027	✓	1.21	31.4M	2022-03-21
ETH	Ethereum	Ethereum	2,764.44	2,710.59	-1.95%	2,891.08	+4.58%	0.0393	✗	1.11	588.4M	2022-03-21
CTK	Shentu	Osmosis	1.132	1.11	-1.94%	1.228	+8.48%	0.0730	✗	1.24	3.1M	2022-03-21
BNT	Bancor Network	Ethereum	2.38	2.3342	-1.92%	2.37	-0.42%	0.0079	✓	1.02	327k	2022-03-21
LPT	Livepeer	Ethereum	25.4	24.9221	-1.88%	26.75	+5.31%	0.0369	✗	1.50	1.9M	2022-03-21
TKO	Tokocrypto	Binance Smart Chain	0.749	0.735687	-1.78%	0.657	-12.28%	0.1369	✓	1.05	2.0M	2022-03-21
MASK	Mask Network	Ethereum	5.08	4.9907	-1.76%	4.42	-12.99%	0.1451	✓	1.05	510k	2022-03-21
ASM	Assemble AI	Ethereum	0.05154	0.050714	-1.60%	0.05358	+3.96%	0.0240	✗	1.37	951k	2022-03-21
TWT	Trust Wallet	Binance Smart Chain	0.5576	0.548951	-1.55%	0.9468	+69.80%	0.5155	✗	1.31	2.3M	2022-03-21
BEL	Bella Protocol	Ethereum	0.861	0.847785	-1.53%	0.85	-1.28%	0.0277	✓	1.34	2.4M	2022-03-21
BCH	Bitcoin Cash	Bitcoin Cash	312.05	307.3673	-1.50%	334.93	+7.33%	0.0638	✗	0.98	8.4M	2022-03-21
GT	Gate	Ethereum	6.6548	6.5599	-1.43%	6.3691	-4.29%	0.0482	✓	0.83	3.6M	2022-03-21
XVS	Venus	Ethereum	9.99	9.9639	-0.26%	9.37	-6.21%	0.0894	✓	1.24	3.2M	2022-03-21
TRX	TRON	Tron	0.063482	0.063325	-0.25%	0.06179	-2.67%	0.0436	✓	0.84	330k	2022-03-21

Δ columns are percentage price moves; alpha err and the hit column are in beta-adjusted log-return space, which is what the model actually predicts. “pending” means the horizon has not matured yet. Rows are capped for readability — add &limit=2000 to widen.